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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 64. (Read 192918 times)

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 30, 2012, 11:43:26 PM
#342
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-30 09:41pm (up to block 201331)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    22843 |      0 (0.00000) |  22473 |     370 |     196.71 |       0.01 |    32.86 |    196.69 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1819 |      0 (0.00000) |   1745 |      74 |      25.63 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.62 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2412 |      0 (0.00000) |   2374 |      38 |      30.29 |       0.02 |     4.42 |     30.26 |   0.093
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2569 |      1 (0.00040) |   2524 |      44 |      54.32 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     46.25 |  14.854
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     4131 |      1 (0.00024) |   4093 |      37 |     100.52 |       4.26 |     7.40 |     96.25 |   4.245
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5572 |      3 (0.00054) |   5557 |      12 |     384.04 |     303.33 |     1.29 |     80.71 |  78.983
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     8015 |      8 (0.00100) |   7985 |      22 |     651.67 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    527.27 |  19.088
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10144 |     19 (0.00188) |  10069 |      56 |    1605.19 |    1274.65 |    44.25 |    330.53 |  79.408
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    10436 |     46 (0.00441) |  10376 |      14 |    1299.43 |    1307.84 |    13.11 |     -8.40 | 100.647
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15775 |    118 (0.00748) |  15647 |      10 |    2676.85 |    2022.36 |     9.35 |    654.49 |  75.550
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    31358 |    471 (0.01503) |  30875 |      12 |    8493.26 |    7731.90 |     1.80 |    761.36 |  91.036
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15544 |    358 (0.02304) |  15180 |       6 |    4706.24 |    4860.84 |    15.00 |   -154.60 | 103.285
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22933 |    712 (0.03105) |  22217 |       4 |    5490.26 |    4653.07 |     9.24 |    837.19 |  84.751
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15576 |    717 (0.04606) |  14851 |       8 |    6798.92 |    8069.63 |    24.99 |  -1270.71 | 118.690
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    16168 |   1000 (0.06187) |  15164 |       4 |    4663.75 |    4142.56 |    31.20 |    521.18 |  88.825
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21505 |   2001 (0.09313) |  19486 |      18 |   10149.80 |   10098.64 |     7.01 |     51.16 |  99.496
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    85853 |  10557 (0.12300) |  75273 |      23 |   10428.74 |    8999.20 |     0.00 |   1429.53 |  86.292
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21849 |   4076 (0.18666) |  17760 |      13 |    8416.04 |    8667.21 |    14.50 |   -251.17 | 102.984
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    86479 |  21046 (0.24343) |  65410 |      23 |   51028.00 |   49788.37 |   347.79 |   1239.62 |  97.571
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    62287 |  22888 (0.36774) |  39351 |      48 |   30734.45 |   29985.90 |   212.64 |    748.55 |  97.564
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   542109 | 264324 (0.48798) | 277343 |     442 |  323266.82 |  321773.33 |  2173.41 |   1493.48 |  99.538
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   197601 |  98502 (0.49896) |  98914 |     185 |  192411.82 |  190026.72 |  1295.22 |   2385.09 |  98.760
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   154240 | 113476 (0.73608) |  40687 |      77 |  154620.27 |  152374.93 |   467.98 |   2245.34 |  98.548
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    13069 |  10381 (0.79481) |   2680 |       8 |   21825.47 |   21540.42 |   400.00 |    285.04 |  98.694
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    12476 |  10672 (0.85684) |   1783 |      21 |   14026.73 |   13969.10 |   400.00 |     57.63 |  99.589
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5979 |   5471 (0.91611) |    501 |       7 |   10952.66 |   10869.45 |     0.00 |     83.21 |  99.240
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7688 |   7394 (0.97986) |    152 |     142 |   16435.16 |   16157.81 |   239.21 |    277.35 |  98.312
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1350353 | 550979           | 797865 |    1509 |  335431.40 |  326032.23 |   148.11 |   9399.17 |  97.198
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    46077 |  23263           |  22605 |     209 |  546041.75 |  542721.89 |  5673.35 |   3319.85 |  99.392
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1396430 | 574242           | 820470 |    1718 |  881473.16 |  868754.13 |  5821.47 |  12719.02 |  98.557
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      12719.02352870 BTC (1.443%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         703.43137500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       12015.59215370 BTC (1.363%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4667641  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2589792  (55.5%)
Blockchain MB:  1938.6  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1057.8  (54.6%)
7

Bugpowder
sr. member
Activity: 394
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 30, 2012, 08:48:15 AM
#341
The probability is betting volume dependent.  If volume goes up the chance of a neg div goes down.  I believe the volume is still quite a bit higher than June and July.  Would be interesting to do a likelyhood analysis given the number of bets per month and their size distribution, but not enough time right now for me to crunch it. I'd probably just do a Monte Carlo approach in matlab.




Quote from: dooglus on September 29, 2012, 09:38:50 AM
Quote from: Bugpowder on September 28, 2012, 05:01:33 PM
The dividend is the profit for the current month minus any carried over losses from the previous month(s).  There are no negative dividends, an I think a zero payout month is pretty statistically unlikely.

If we look at the historical data, June would have been a zero payout month, and July only just managed to recover June's losses too.  I don't know if these were freak occurrences, but so far 1 (and almost 2) out of 4 months would have been zero payout months:


dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 29, 2012, 10:08:16 AM
#340
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-29 08:01am (up to block 201090)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    22681 |      0 (0.00000) |  22311 |     370 |     194.58 |       0.01 |    32.86 |    194.56 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1815 |      0 (0.00000) |   1741 |      74 |      25.50 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.50 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2406 |      0 (0.00000) |   2368 |      38 |      30.25 |       0.02 |     4.42 |     30.22 |   0.093
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2560 |      1 (0.00040) |   2515 |      44 |      53.99 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     45.92 |  14.943
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     4128 |      1 (0.00024) |   4091 |      36 |     100.12 |       4.26 |     7.40 |     95.85 |   4.261
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5552 |      3 (0.00054) |   5537 |      12 |     381.76 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     78.43 |  79.454
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7968 |      8 (0.00101) |   7938 |      22 |     647.30 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.91 |  19.217
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10075 |     19 (0.00190) |  10000 |      56 |    1598.75 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    324.10 |  79.728
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    10369 |     45 (0.00435) |  10310 |      14 |    1294.71 |    1302.84 |    13.11 |     -8.13 | 100.628
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15714 |    118 (0.00751) |  15586 |      10 |    2672.08 |    2022.36 |     9.35 |    649.72 |  75.685
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    31303 |    469 (0.01499) |  30822 |      12 |    8487.05 |    7724.85 |     1.80 |    762.19 |  91.019
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15269 |    351 (0.02300) |  14912 |       6 |    4705.37 |    4860.38 |    15.00 |   -155.00 | 103.294
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22910 |    709 (0.03095) |  22197 |       4 |    5488.08 |    4647.95 |     9.24 |    840.13 |  84.692
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15535 |    717 (0.04618) |  14810 |       8 |    6798.20 |    8069.63 |    24.99 |  -1271.43 | 118.703
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    16124 |    999 (0.06197) |  15121 |       4 |    4662.08 |    4140.96 |    31.20 |    521.11 |  88.822
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21442 |   2000 (0.09335) |  19424 |      18 |   10142.60 |   10097.55 |     7.01 |     45.04 |  99.556
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    85699 |  10540 (0.12302) |  75136 |      23 |   10407.60 |    8979.93 |     0.00 |   1427.67 |  86.282
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21744 |   4054 (0.18655) |  17677 |      13 |    8404.48 |    8660.42 |    14.50 |   -255.93 | 103.045
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    85283 |  20755 (0.24343) |  64505 |      23 |   50689.99 |   49486.92 |   347.79 |   1203.07 |  97.627
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    61584 |  22627 (0.36770) |  38910 |      47 |   30148.80 |   29383.09 |   212.64 |    765.70 |  97.460
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   539875 | 263242 (0.48800) | 276192 |     441 |  322148.48 |  320677.76 |  2173.41 |   1470.72 |  99.543
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   197097 |  98242 (0.49891) |  98670 |     185 |  191908.33 |  189536.22 |  1295.22 |   2372.11 |  98.764
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   153541 | 112973 (0.73615) |  40491 |      77 |  154490.11 |  152248.60 |   467.98 |   2241.50 |  98.549
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12790 |  10165 (0.79520) |   2618 |       7 |   21781.84 |   21498.93 |   400.00 |    282.91 |  98.701
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    12256 |  10477 (0.85631) |   1758 |      21 |   13790.16 |   13709.83 |   400.00 |     80.33 |  99.417
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5855 |   5355 (0.91570) |    493 |       7 |   10796.05 |   10722.51 |     0.00 |     73.53 |  99.319
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7676 |   7383 (0.97996) |    151 |     142 |   16433.78 |   16156.53 |   239.21 |    277.25 |  98.313
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1343327 | 548066           | 793756 |    1505 |  333708.74 |  324427.83 |   148.11 |   9280.90 |  97.219
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45924 |  23187           |  22528 |     209 |  544573.43 |  541214.26 |  5673.35 |   3359.17 |  99.383
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1389251 | 571253           | 816284 |    1714 |  878282.18 |  865642.10 |  5821.47 |  12640.07 |  98.561
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      12640.07996177 BTC (1.439%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         699.82265000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11940.25731177 BTC (1.360%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4633008  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2575926  (55.6%)
Blockchain MB:  1922.8  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1052.2  (54.7%)

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 29, 2012, 09:38:50 AM
#339
Quote from: Bugpowder on September 28, 2012, 05:01:33 PM
The dividend is the profit for the current month minus any carried over losses from the previous month(s).  There are no negative dividends, an I think a zero payout month is pretty statistically unlikely.

If we look at the historical data, June would have been a zero payout month, and July only just managed to recover June's losses too.  I don't know if these were freak occurrences, but so far 1 (and almost 2) out of 4 months would have been zero payout months:

Bugpowder
sr. member
Activity: 394
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 28, 2012, 05:01:33 PM
#338
The dividend is the profit for the current month minus any carried over losses from the previous month(s).  There are no negative dividends, an I think a zero payout month is pretty statistically unlikely.




Quote from: dooglus on September 28, 2012, 01:58:39 PM
Quote from: jamesg on September 28, 2012, 01:32:42 PM
Quote from: dooglus on September 28, 2012, 01:19:40 PM
What if the profits are:
  10k at the end of September
  9k at the end of November
  10k at the end of December

There's no dividend at the end of November, but what about at the end of December?  Is that counted as a 1k profit on the month?  Because that 1k profit was already paid out at the end of September - the site hasn't really made a new profit, it's just recovered its November loss.

Per the prospectus

Quote
It is also important to note that net profit is calculated as a running total. Thus if Month A has a loss of 500 BTC, and Month B has a profit of 1200 BTC, the net profit for Month B will be 700 BTC and this is the amount which would be paid to shareholders as dividends

OK thanks.  It sounds like the highest ever end-of-month profit is used to calculate this month's new profit, which makes sense.

As an example, if the price of bitcoin was the number being used instead of SD profits then there would have been no new dividends paid until the price goes above last summer's end-of-month high of around $16 ( http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyzczsg2011-05-25zeg2011-07-05ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv )
Fizzgig
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 28, 2012, 03:15:16 PM
#337
In the future the price of the stock may develop a correlation, falling when one month is exceedingly unprofitable and recovering when profits are in a position to start paying dividends again.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 28, 2012, 01:58:39 PM
#336
Quote from: jamesg on September 28, 2012, 01:32:42 PM
Quote from: dooglus on September 28, 2012, 01:19:40 PM
What if the profits are:
  10k at the end of September
  9k at the end of November
  10k at the end of December

There's no dividend at the end of November, but what about at the end of December?  Is that counted as a 1k profit on the month?  Because that 1k profit was already paid out at the end of September - the site hasn't really made a new profit, it's just recovered its November loss.

Per the prospectus

Quote
It is also important to note that net profit is calculated as a running total. Thus if Month A has a loss of 500 BTC, and Month B has a profit of 1200 BTC, the net profit for Month B will be 700 BTC and this is the amount which would be paid to shareholders as dividends

OK thanks.  It sounds like the highest ever end-of-month profit is used to calculate this month's new profit, which makes sense.

As an example, if the price of bitcoin was the number being used instead of SD profits then there would have been no new dividends paid until the price goes above last summer's end-of-month high of around $16 ( http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyzczsg2011-05-25zeg2011-07-05ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv )
jamesg
vip
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
AKA: gigavps
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 28, 2012, 01:32:42 PM
#335
Quote from: dooglus on September 28, 2012, 01:19:40 PM
What if the profits are:
  10k at the end of September
  9k at the end of November
  10k at the end of December

There's no dividend at the end of November, but what about at the end of December?  Is that counted as a 1k profit on the month?  Because that 1k profit was already paid out at the end of September - the site hasn't really made a new profit, it's just recovered its November loss.

Per the prospectus

Quote
It is also important to note that net profit is calculated as a running total. Thus if Month A has a loss of 500 BTC, and Month B has a profit of 1200 BTC, the net profit for Month B will be 700 BTC and this is the amount which would be paid to shareholders as dividends
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 28, 2012, 01:31:10 PM
#334
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-28 11:29am (up to block 200948)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    22558 |      0 (0.00000) |  22188 |     370 |     194.16 |       0.01 |    32.86 |    194.14 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1810 |      0 (0.00000) |   1736 |      74 |      25.49 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.49 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2402 |      0 (0.00000) |   2364 |      38 |      30.23 |       0.02 |     4.42 |     30.21 |   0.093
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2554 |      1 (0.00040) |   2509 |      44 |      53.86 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     45.79 |  14.978
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2857 |      1 (0.00035) |   2820 |      36 |      96.99 |       4.26 |     7.40 |     92.73 |   4.395
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5534 |      3 (0.00054) |   5519 |      12 |     381.33 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     78.00 |  79.544
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7961 |      8 (0.00101) |   7931 |      22 |     647.18 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.79 |  19.221
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10068 |     19 (0.00190) |   9993 |      56 |    1598.71 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    324.06 |  79.730
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    10359 |     45 (0.00435) |  10300 |      14 |    1294.50 |    1302.84 |    13.11 |     -8.33 | 100.644
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15679 |    118 (0.00753) |  15551 |      10 |    2664.96 |    2022.33 |     9.35 |    642.63 |  75.886
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    31209 |    466 (0.01494) |  30731 |      12 |    8481.09 |    7710.14 |     1.80 |    770.95 |  90.910
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15251 |    350 (0.02296) |  14895 |       6 |    4704.75 |    4859.10 |    15.00 |   -154.34 | 103.281
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22899 |    709 (0.03097) |  22186 |       4 |    5487.82 |    4647.95 |     9.24 |    839.86 |  84.696
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15513 |    717 (0.04624) |  14788 |       8 |    6797.73 |    8069.63 |    24.99 |  -1271.90 | 118.711
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    16111 |    999 (0.06202) |  15108 |       4 |    4661.20 |    4140.96 |    31.20 |    520.23 |  88.839
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21407 |   1997 (0.09337) |  19392 |      18 |   10135.33 |   10095.81 |     7.01 |     39.51 |  99.610
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    85608 |  10534 (0.12308) |  75051 |      23 |   10388.15 |    8966.86 |     0.00 |   1421.28 |  86.318
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21655 |   4042 (0.18677) |  17600 |      13 |    8389.16 |    8654.13 |    14.50 |   -264.97 | 103.159
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    85058 |  20713 (0.24358) |  64322 |      23 |   50491.88 |   49401.85 |   347.79 |   1090.03 |  97.841
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    61398 |  22542 (0.36742) |  38810 |      46 |   30129.31 |   29352.68 |   212.64 |    776.63 |  97.422
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   538762 | 262711 (0.48802) | 275614 |     437 |  321686.95 |  320208.09 |  2173.41 |   1478.86 |  99.540
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   196746 |  98079 (0.49897) |  98484 |     183 |  191547.53 |  189298.35 |  1295.22 |   2249.18 |  98.826
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   152777 | 112406 (0.73612) |  40294 |      77 |  154324.68 |  152089.81 |   467.98 |   2234.87 |  98.552
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12717 |  10110 (0.79544) |   2600 |       7 |   21765.38 |   21480.43 |   400.00 |    284.95 |  98.691
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    12204 |  10431 (0.85619) |   1752 |      21 |   13772.95 |   13691.69 |   400.00 |     81.25 |  99.410
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5824 |   5328 (0.91594) |    489 |       7 |   10657.64 |   10577.38 |     0.00 |     80.26 |  99.247
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7658 |   7365 (0.97991) |    151 |     142 |   16418.43 |   16141.11 |   239.21 |    277.31 |  98.311
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1338714 | 546534           | 790682 |    1498 |  333015.89 |  323808.07 |   148.11 |   9207.81 |  97.235
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45865 |  23160           |  22496 |     209 |  543811.65 |  540617.92 |  5673.35 |   3193.73 |  99.413
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1384579 | 569694           | 813178 |    1707 |  876827.54 |  864425.99 |  5821.47 |  12401.54 |  98.586
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      12401.54718501 BTC (1.414%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         697.48002500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11704.06716001 BTC (1.335%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4610006  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2566833  (55.7%)
Blockchain MB:  1912.7  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1048.6  (54.8%)

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 28, 2012, 01:19:40 PM
#333
Quote from: jamesg on September 28, 2012, 01:14:42 PM
Quote from: dooglus on September 28, 2012, 01:12:03 PM
Quote from: Bugpowder on September 28, 2012, 06:46:44 AM
Dividend = (Oct 1  Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10

What happens if that number is negative?

Then no cookies for you!  Tongue

What if the profits are:
  10k at the end of September
  9k at the end of November
  10k at the end of December

There's no dividend at the end of November, but what about at the end of December?  Is that counted as a 1k profit on the month?  Because that 1k profit was already paid out at the end of September - the site hasn't really made a new profit, it's just recovered its November loss.
jamesg
vip
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
AKA: gigavps
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 28, 2012, 01:14:42 PM
#332
Quote from: dooglus on September 28, 2012, 01:12:03 PM
Quote from: Bugpowder on September 28, 2012, 06:46:44 AM
Dividend = (Oct 1  Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10

What happens if that number is negative?

Then no cookies for you!  Tongue
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 28, 2012, 01:12:03 PM
#331
Quote from: Bugpowder on September 28, 2012, 06:46:44 AM
Dividend = (Oct 1  Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10

What happens if that number is negative?
Bugpowder
sr. member
Activity: 394
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 28, 2012, 06:46:44 AM
#330
Dividend = (Oct 1  Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10
phelix
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1020
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 28, 2012, 01:30:40 AM
#329
thanks for the statistics!

what about an estimate for the next dividend, maybe with roi?
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 27, 2012, 02:39:47 PM
#328
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-27 12:25pm (up to block 200794)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    22038 |      0 (0.00000) |  21668 |     370 |     193.09 |       0.01 |    32.86 |    193.07 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1800 |      0 (0.00000) |   1726 |      74 |      25.48 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.47 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2391 |      0 (0.00000) |   2353 |      38 |      30.22 |       0.02 |     4.42 |     30.19 |   0.093
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2541 |      1 (0.00040) |   2496 |      44 |      53.82 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     45.75 |  14.990
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2569 |      1 (0.00039) |   2532 |      36 |      95.91 |       4.26 |     7.40 |     91.65 |   4.443
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5521 |      3 (0.00054) |   5506 |      12 |     381.27 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.94 |  79.556
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7918 |      8 (0.00101) |   7888 |      22 |     647.01 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.62 |  19.226
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10060 |     19 (0.00190) |   9985 |      56 |    1598.70 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    324.05 |  79.730
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9924 |     43 (0.00434) |   9867 |      14 |    1288.14 |    1302.34 |    13.11 |    -14.20 | 101.103
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15604 |    118 (0.00757) |  15476 |      10 |    2662.04 |    2022.33 |     9.35 |    639.71 |  75.969
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    30943 |    460 (0.01487) |  30471 |      12 |    8474.45 |    7706.04 |     1.80 |    768.40 |  90.933
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15147 |    347 (0.02292) |  14794 |       6 |    4704.47 |    4858.97 |    15.00 |   -154.50 | 103.284
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22794 |    705 (0.03093) |  22085 |       4 |    5487.25 |    4647.79 |     9.24 |    839.45 |  84.702
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15377 |    709 (0.04613) |  14660 |       8 |    6796.45 |    8066.89 |    24.99 |  -1270.43 | 118.693
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15926 |    988 (0.06205) |  14934 |       4 |    4649.01 |    4128.14 |    31.20 |    520.86 |  88.796
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21219 |   1981 (0.09344) |  19220 |      18 |   10121.29 |   10076.76 |     7.01 |     44.52 |  99.560
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    85331 |  10496 (0.12304) |  74812 |      23 |   10374.07 |    8954.39 |     0.00 |   1419.68 |  86.315
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21286 |   3985 (0.18733) |  17288 |      13 |    8364.71 |    8623.19 |    14.50 |   -258.48 | 103.090
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    84576 |  20576 (0.24335) |  63977 |      23 |   50418.10 |   49297.15 |   347.79 |   1120.94 |  97.777
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    61209 |  22476 (0.36748) |  38687 |      46 |   30105.05 |   29324.00 |   212.64 |    781.04 |  97.406
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   537531 | 262118 (0.48803) | 274976 |     437 |  321251.95 |  319798.06 |  2173.41 |   1453.88 |  99.547
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   196046 |  97735 (0.49900) |  98128 |     183 |  191158.30 |  188928.43 |  1295.22 |   2229.87 |  98.833
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   152095 | 111893 (0.73605) |  40125 |      77 |  154214.79 |  152004.09 |   467.98 |   2210.70 |  98.566
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12638 |  10047 (0.79542) |   2584 |       7 |   21750.38 |   21465.15 |   400.00 |    285.23 |  98.689
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    12026 |  10285 (0.85673) |   1720 |      21 |   13095.86 |   12935.38 |   400.00 |    160.48 |  98.775
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5705 |   5218 (0.91576) |    480 |       7 |   10572.43 |   10492.00 |     0.00 |     80.42 |  99.239
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7636 |   7346 (0.97986) |    151 |     139 |   16413.21 |   16135.89 |   239.21 |    277.32 |  98.310
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1332042 | 544428           | 786119 |    1495 |  332102.85 |  322931.98 |   148.11 |   9170.87 |  97.239
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45809 |  23130           |  22470 |     209 |  542824.71 |  539549.84 |  5673.35 |   3274.86 |  99.397
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1377851 | 567558           | 808589 |    1704 |  874927.56 |  862481.83 |  5821.47 |  12445.73 |  98.578
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      12445.73642941 BTC (1.422%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         694.10675000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11751.62967941 BTC (1.343%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4580858  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2554448  (55.8%)
Blockchain MB:  1900.1  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1043.8  (54.9%)

flatfly
legendary
Activity: 1120
Merit: 1016
090930
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 27, 2012, 11:21:34 AM
#327
Quote from: zvs on September 27, 2012, 11:09:09 AM
Quote from: dooglus on September 25, 2012, 06:50:24 PM
Quote from: dooglus on September 25, 2012, 03:18:38 PM
Scripting it is pretty easy.  I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread.   I'll dig up a link to it later if you like.  It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy.

Here's the thread about payb.tc's SatoshiDice bot:

https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=80245
Thanks.  Didn't even realize there was a script posted on here.

I think I'll give it a try w/ 5 BTC... and hopefully after I bust that 5 BTC, I won't play anymore.  =p

Actually the problems start if you don't bust... Smiley
zvs
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1000
https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 27, 2012, 11:09:09 AM
#326
Quote from: dooglus on September 25, 2012, 06:50:24 PM
Quote from: dooglus on September 25, 2012, 03:18:38 PM
Scripting it is pretty easy.  I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread.   I'll dig up a link to it later if you like.  It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy.

Here's the thread about payb.tc's SatoshiDice bot:

https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=80245
Thanks.  Didn't even realize there was a script posted on here.

I think I'll give it a try w/ 5 BTC... and hopefully after I bust that 5 BTC, I won't play anymore.  =p
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 27, 2012, 02:57:59 AM
#325
Quote from: Herbert on September 27, 2012, 02:24:51 AM
Awesome stats, checking this thread regularly :-)
One suggestion: Could you add the number of bets to the graph? So one could see if the overall usage of the site increases/decreases and how the profit relates to the general usage?

The dotted lines show 1% and 1.5% of total amount bet so far (minus fees paid), so they indicate the amount that has been bet.  You'll notice the dotted line is steepest during the volatile period just after 08/09 for instance - lots of bet volume during that time.  Is that what you're looking for?
Herbert
hero member
Activity: 488
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 27, 2012, 02:24:51 AM
#324
Awesome stats, checking this thread regularly :-)
One suggestion: Could you add the number of bets to the graph? So one could see if the overall usage of the site increases/decreases and how the profit relates to the general usage?
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 27, 2012, 12:06:57 AM
#323
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-26 10:04pm (up to block 200693)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    21997 |      0 (0.00000) |  21630 |     367 |     192.84 |       0.01 |    32.56 |    192.83 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1797 |      0 (0.00000) |   1723 |      74 |      25.47 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.47 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2386 |      0 (0.00000) |   2349 |      37 |      30.21 |       0.02 |     4.22 |     30.19 |   0.093
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2537 |      1 (0.00040) |   2492 |      44 |      53.81 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     45.75 |  14.991
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2569 |      1 (0.00039) |   2532 |      36 |      95.91 |       4.26 |     7.40 |     91.65 |   4.443
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5518 |      3 (0.00054) |   5503 |      12 |     381.23 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.90 |  79.564
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7916 |      8 (0.00101) |   7886 |      22 |     647.01 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.61 |  19.226
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10056 |     19 (0.00190) |   9981 |      56 |    1598.67 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    324.03 |  79.731
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9924 |     43 (0.00434) |   9867 |      14 |    1288.14 |    1302.34 |    13.11 |    -14.20 | 101.103
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15481 |    118 (0.00763) |  15354 |       9 |    2661.23 |    2022.33 |     9.35 |    638.90 |  75.992
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    30566 |    453 (0.01483) |  30101 |      12 |    8470.30 |    7701.57 |     1.80 |    768.73 |  90.924
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15145 |    347 (0.02292) |  14792 |       6 |    4704.47 |    4858.97 |    15.00 |   -154.50 | 103.284
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22779 |    704 (0.03091) |  22071 |       4 |    5486.63 |    4647.48 |     9.24 |    839.15 |  84.706
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15352 |    709 (0.04621) |  14635 |       8 |    6796.37 |    8066.89 |    24.99 |  -1270.51 | 118.694
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15918 |    987 (0.06202) |  14927 |       4 |    4648.00 |    4126.54 |    31.20 |    521.46 |  88.781
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21190 |   1979 (0.09347) |  19193 |      18 |   10118.08 |   10075.58 |     7.01 |     42.50 |  99.580
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    84817 |  10436 (0.12307) |  74358 |      23 |   10364.85 |    8947.55 |     0.00 |   1417.29 |  86.326
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21163 |   3969 (0.18766) |  17181 |      13 |    8357.15 |    8611.34 |    14.50 |   -254.19 | 103.042
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    84241 |  20496 (0.24337) |  63722 |      23 |   50389.15 |   49274.62 |   347.79 |   1114.53 |  97.788
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    61101 |  22435 (0.36746) |  38620 |      46 |   30097.48 |   29319.69 |   212.64 |    777.79 |  97.416
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   536184 | 261463 (0.48803) | 274284 |     437 |  320595.71 |  319262.12 |  2173.41 |   1333.59 |  99.584
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   195906 |  97662 (0.49898) |  98061 |     183 |  191067.27 |  188814.77 |  1295.22 |   2252.50 |  98.821
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   151590 | 111497 (0.73589) |  40016 |      77 |  154152.63 |  151951.18 |   467.98 |   2201.44 |  98.572
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12595 |  10012 (0.79536) |   2576 |       7 |   21731.73 |   21443.36 |   400.00 |    288.36 |  98.673
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    11751 |  10046 (0.85644) |   1684 |      21 |   12999.13 |   12844.27 |   400.00 |    154.86 |  98.809
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5692 |   5205 (0.91557) |    480 |       7 |   10299.80 |   10200.01 |     0.00 |     99.79 |  99.031
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7635 |   7345 (0.97986) |    151 |     139 |   16413.21 |   16135.89 |   239.21 |    277.32 |  98.310
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           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1328049 | 542836           | 783723 |    1490 |  331606.23 |  322485.68 |   147.61 |   9120.54 |  97.250
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45757 |  23102           |  22446 |     209 |  542060.38 |  538835.62 |  5673.35 |   3224.76 |  99.405
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                                |  1373806 | 565938           | 806169 |    1699 |  873666.61 |  861321.31 |  5820.96 |  12345.30 |  98.587
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SD Profit before fees:      12345.30604150 BTC (1.413%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         692.07885000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11653.22719150 BTC (1.334%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4563338  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2546392  (55.8%)
Blockchain MB:  1892.9  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1040.8  (55.0%)

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