The water cycle is a tiny machine in the loads of machines that make up the universe. Machines have makers. A maker great enough to make the universe is consistent with the definition of our word "God."
Tiny or not, it means that you cannot claim that
all machines have makers. Of course, there exist machines that have makers, but you can't use that statement to prove that the universe was made by a god (how ever you define "god"), because the universe can be one of those machines with no maker.
And while we are rehashing your broken proof, remember that we can't use probability as an argument here, since we have no way to measure it.
Absolutely can! Consider. There are about 5,000 years of people history that we can confirm really happened on earth. Confirmation comes through examining speech patterns and applying them to what is written on ancient clay tablets. We also have a little DNA from the past.
In this 5,000 years we have found all kinds of machines and made-things. What do we know about these machines and made-things?
1. For some of them, we know who made them.
2. For some of them, we have a pretty good idea who made them... evidence.
3. For some we don't know who made them.
4. For many, if we want to stand off a little way and be objective, we don't know that they were made... and we don't know that they weren't made.
But here's the real clincher.
1. We have proof that multitudes of machines and made-things were made, often knowing who the makers were.
2. But we don't have proof that even one thing or machine was not made... just popped spontaneously into existence for no reason.
If there were only 5 things in the universe, and we only knew for a fact that one of them was made, where's the evidence that at least one of the 5 was not made?... since the other 4 might or might not have been made?
But the universe is full of things. And we have proof of billions of things having been made, because many of the makers are still alive. And we have strong evidence that the books that talk about the makers of other things are not lying. And even many of the things that we don't know were made, look like other things that we know WERE made.
So, find us the proof for something that was not made... so that we know absolutely that it exists without having been made. Prove it. Don't prove it for countless thousands of things. Don't turn to theories. Show us the proof for just one. Proof that it could absolutely not have been made and yet exists.
In other words, all we have is two things:
1. Billions of machines have makers;
2. We don't know.
We don't know of even one thing for a fact that doesn't have a maker. Some of us consider that all machines have makers. Some others just keep on playing the lottery.