Looking at volume... not sure what to think...
My first thought is a massive sell off (I think was pumped 2-3 days ago when it hit 122)... The volume after is so far holding the price steady so either they are already trying to buy back or everyone else is jumping on the cheap coins (I know I did, got in at the bottom 110.00010 thank you).
I don't yet see a down turn, it has been slow lately so I sort of discount the sell off... waiting for a more lasting tend to appear.
It is entirely possible though this single sell off could of broke what ever support we had the last few days.
Lets keep things into perspective... all those market sells dropped the price less then 10%.
Topic: SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal - page 4. (Read 24795 times)
Yup, down we go.
Should have shorted.
Should have shorted.
33 days after the April 10 peak
Here is a closer look at the recently completed bearish wedge. The bitcoin rally significantly reversed direction at the indicated resistance trendline. This is the sort of pattern that could initiate the next leg down. Note the very high relative volume.
Here is a closer look at the recently completed bearish wedge. The bitcoin rally significantly reversed direction at the indicated resistance trendline. This is the sort of pattern that could initiate the next leg down. Note the very high relative volume.
32 days after the April 10 peak
Diminishing volume over the last three days is narrowing the trading range, and sideways price action is more common than earlier in the bubble collapse. There has been a slight downward trend from the recent peak at $125. By the end of this week, the illustrated support line intersects the resistance line at $120.
If the price fell through the indicated support line, e.g. below $110 by the end of this week, then that outcome would strengthen the case for continued bubble collapse. Conversely, if prices rally and comply with the indicated support, then that weakens the bear case, especially if recent peaks at $147 and $160 are surpassed.
Diminishing volume over the last three days is narrowing the trading range, and sideways price action is more common than earlier in the bubble collapse. There has been a slight downward trend from the recent peak at $125. By the end of this week, the illustrated support line intersects the resistance line at $120.
If the price fell through the indicated support line, e.g. below $110 by the end of this week, then that outcome would strengthen the case for continued bubble collapse. Conversely, if prices rally and comply with the indicated support, then that weakens the bear case, especially if recent peaks at $147 and $160 are surpassed.
The upward movement from $97 has broken through the up-to-now primary bubble collapse trendline. This weakens the case for the bubble collapse to continue, but there is another distinguished line of resistance nearby.
30 days after the April 10 peak
At this important 30-day milestone, note that although at the current price of $118.78, bitcoin has fallen 55% from its peak at $266, it remains 8.8x higher than back in January, when a bitcoin was priced at $13.50.
By way of comparison, at 30 days after the June 8, 2011 peak, prices had fallen to $14.2, also a drop of 55%.
Although obviously not aligned with respect to the timing of their capitulations, they remain consistent with regard to overall pace of collapse.
Bubble 1 at 30 days ...
This bubble at 30 days ...
At this important 30-day milestone, note that although at the current price of $118.78, bitcoin has fallen 55% from its peak at $266, it remains 8.8x higher than back in January, when a bitcoin was priced at $13.50.
By way of comparison, at 30 days after the June 8, 2011 peak, prices had fallen to $14.2, also a drop of 55%.
Although obviously not aligned with respect to the timing of their capitulations, they remain consistent with regard to overall pace of collapse.
Bubble 1 at 30 days ...
This bubble at 30 days ...
Does anyone get the feeling that the market is slowing down as we near the apex of the biggest triangle ever seen?
Isn't that what is expected?
Quote
Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the tightening consolidation before the breakout.
Yes, it is expected but it something to actually feel it.
I now believe that the highest volume weeks of 2013 are behind us.
Trading is certainly slowing and the range is narrowing, but you haven't seen anything until you see the volume that is traded when this triangle breaks.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Eh... more than 6 months remaining in the year... I would wait a little.
SlipperySlope puts lots of thought in his posts.
You can wait before recognizing that but it will likely come with a bill attached.
Eh... more than 6 months remaining in the year... I would wait a little.
Does anyone get the feeling that the market is slowing down as we near the apex of the biggest triangle ever seen?
Isn't that what is expected?
Quote
Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the tightening consolidation before the breakout.
Yes, it is expected but it something to actually feel it.
I now believe that the highest volume weeks of 2013 are behind us.
Does anyone get the feeling that the market is slowing down as we near the apex of the biggest triangle ever seen?
Isn't that what is expected?
Quote
Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the tightening consolidation before the breakout.
29 days after the April 10 peak
A bubble collapse should be characterized by successively lower volume until the collapse is complete.
Here is the June 8, 2011 bubble volume chart ...
http://i.imgur.com/Wqgpcu2.png
And for comparison, here is the correspond April 10, 2013 bubble chart ...
http://i.imgur.com/X3C2OOp.png
Although the recent bubble's volume is 10x higher, it diminishes from its peak in a manner very similar to that of bubble 1.
A bubble collapse should be characterized by successively lower volume until the collapse is complete.
Here is the June 8, 2011 bubble volume chart ...
http://i.imgur.com/Wqgpcu2.png
And for comparison, here is the correspond April 10, 2013 bubble chart ...
http://i.imgur.com/X3C2OOp.png
Although the recent bubble's volume is 10x higher, it diminishes from its peak in a manner very similar to that of bubble 1.
Good job, very clean comparison. It will be very interesting to observe if we are indeed in July 2011.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Does anyone get the feeling that the market is slowing down as we near the apex of the biggest triangle ever seen?
You bet!
Bitcoin is so full of extremes. Sometimes volatility that I can't believe me eyes, other times, like now, the market seems almost dead.
Does anyone get the feeling that the market is slowing down as we near the apex of the biggest triangle ever seen?
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
And just about the time we've nearly perfected the technical analysis something different will come at us from the fundamental side of the house.
Is that a troll-like observation?
Is that a troll-like observation?
I would say it's an expression of hope
Although the recent bubble's volume is 10x higher, it diminishes from its peak in a manner very similar to that of bubble 1.
Also the gox api downtime coincides with the post "hack" shutdown period.
And just about the time we've nearly perfected the technical analysis something different will come at us from the fundamental side of the house.
Is that a troll-like observation?
Is that a troll-like observation?
29 days after the April 10 peak
A bubble collapse should be characterized by successively lower volume until the collapse is complete.
Here is the June 8, 2011 bubble volume chart ...
And for comparison, here is the correspond April 10, 2013 bubble chart ...
Although the recent bubble's volume is 10x higher, it diminishes from its peak in a manner very similar to that of bubble 1.
A bubble collapse should be characterized by successively lower volume until the collapse is complete.
Here is the June 8, 2011 bubble volume chart ...
And for comparison, here is the correspond April 10, 2013 bubble chart ...
Although the recent bubble's volume is 10x higher, it diminishes from its peak in a manner very similar to that of bubble 1.
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