Topic: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious - page 20. (Read 36099 times)

Certainly - the best option is to go straight to the source, but in summary:

Water splashes when it flows rapidly into a reservoir, and it also splashes when boiling - two similar effects with drastically different causes. The phase change Armstrong refers to is when markets move in a different manner than what we're accustomed to. Markets behave differently during growth phases and when they mature - even though asset values rise, the reasons and trends may be completely different.

May you elaborate on this please ?


Thank you

An ETF would simply add fuel for a short burst. Maybe $2000-2500 to start. After a correction from there, a flood will probably start (likely coming from Asia & Europe) with $6000 as an initial target for late 2017 to 2018.

The chances of BTC going below $1000 are rapidly dwindling. We're currently at the top of the red channel from my prior posts, and if we exceed $1288-1290 for more than a day it's very likely the trend will continue.

Eventually we may have to retest $1000-1100 but that's likely to be short-lived and sometime around Armstrong's call to beware of April. As of now I still see only the beginning of an acceleration in trend. If we hold above $1265, I think it will be more of a pause in trend than a correction. It still seems that $1300-1500 is being reached for. To borrow a term from Armstrong - this may be a phase transition; the rules seem to be shifting.

To borrow a term from Armstrong - this may be a phase transition; the rules seem to be shifting.

What you guys think about the Bitcoin ETF news coming March 13?

Re: Altcoins coming to their glory in a matter of days!

Bitcoin is not going to do a double-top at its ATH because that is not what technology adoption curves do (see the chart I posted of Amazon's stock in the past). At worst, it will consolidate at $1100 or so, and continue to move higher this year. We've broken out of the "mountain of premature hope" of the first hump of technology adoption curves. These don't breakout to a new ATH and then crash anew. We'd been climbing the "wall of worry" lately due to block scaling concerns, but the fact remains that Bitcoin is crypto-currency and the altcoins are not (yet). Bitcoin is going higher because it is the reserve currency of all the experimentation in blockchains (regardless of Bitcoin's scaling).

We are entering a massive exodus from the Euro and into dollars and other safe havens outside the collapsing economies of Europe due to BREXIT and will accelerate when Le Pen is elected in France in 2 months. This will also drive an increase in speculation in those assets which are ignited by this flood of capital seeking a home.

There three ETFs under consideration, not just the Winklevoss ETF. Also there sentiment is not expecting a certain approval. Approval sends Bitcoin skyrocketing. Disapproval merely causes a minor consolidation.

I am not selling BTC fearing a massive price collapse. Diversifying into best of breed altcoins for more leverage is okay, but this leverage can bite you in both directions.

It is plausible. I am not trading, so I won't stress over it. Traders may wish to analyze it deeper.

Yes, next range appears to be $1300-1500. Almost immediately after my last post, price dipped to within $10 of $1100 without going below. If I'd been watching, I would've been buying.

The channel top is at approximately $1213 and the uptrend projection is around $1175. I expect an upward breach to continue and will be buying in that case. If the highs hold at the end of the month, we'll most likely continue rising through March into April.

The uptrend still seems reasonable to me.

A question in relation to the speculation rule. Since others look like they're now irrationally optimistic and a little reckless, is it now time to sell? Now might be a good time to.

For a small amount buying USDT on Poloniex is a better way to do it. It's less volatile and doesn't entail any unnecessary risk. Buying ETH has that risk. We will never know when another DAO-like attack is coming.

If you like to gamble you can do this on bitfinex as well. the usd will just sit there since you need to be verified and give them info to withdraw. but bitfinex has been known to steal your money

The problem that crypto is facing, as compared to penny stock, is that it has no economic function AT ALL.

What about the lightning network?

I have an entire section (#8) of my whitepaper dedicated to analyzing and explaining Byteball.

It is an interesting discovery. It has flaws (and not just related to the consensus algorithm). And my design is not Byteball, but there is one aspect which is similar to one aspect of Byteball, yet my design would not work if it was only Byteball.

One of the main flaws of Byteball that you should be aware of besides the messed up transaction fees and distribution, is that the consensus of the blockchain can become entirely stuck if > 50% of the witnesses collude or stop functioning. Then it requires a (political gridlock potentially) hardfork to unstuck the blockchain. Ditto Tendermint, Casper, and all Byzantine agreement variants (that includes DPoS, yet the whales can vote to unstuck it without a hardfork). Note there is a mechanism for voting in new witnesses, but because it requires a total order so it will in practice never work out because total orders don't exist in nature.

Yeah Byteball has something important in it, but it is not really the solution.

Iota has an entire different consensus than Byteball, and it doesn't work without centralized servers. We've already been down that technical debate in the past, so I won't repeat it and get trolled again by Iota shills. Readers can either learn to recognize that I know what I say, or they can suffer the same fate as all the other times I've been doubted.

And no, Bitcoin can't adopt any of these things. Bitcoin isn't ever going to be anything more than what it already is (which is sufficient). Learn to accept that and move on. Lightning Networks is never going to work (decentralized, which is thus the same as saying it is never going to scale up in terms of relevance).

At the end of the day Altcoins are non existent and have no meaning until i come back here to this bubble.
Where users chant "free market" and "no laws" so they can profit off the lawless situation.
So tell me optimists does that over-view of the situation make you think things will be getting better or worse ?

It's a never ending babble fest about hypothetical things with a dash of conspiracy LOL

You gotta remember when we got in the game we could mine the launch of every coin since there was only a handful and none of this ICO garbage.