Topic: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious - page 18. (Read 36049 times)

Can't you see what he is signaling?

Review those tweets again.

He is signaling:

1. Hey Bitcoin can't come to a consensus on any changes. This is a mess. I'll express my disgust with an April fools joke by signaling conflicting positions simultaneously.

2. I can't signal multiple conflicting options on Litecoin. Thus I am making a very strong implied message for those who aren't too dumb to see it.

Do you guys get it now? He is signaling that Bitcoin is a clusterfuck where the softfork can't be achieved. And he is signaling that Litecoin doesn't have the conflicting mess and he is ready and willing to activate SegWit on Litecoin if the consensus threshold of 75% is reached.

Litecoin's miners and whales have every incentive to activate SegWit so that the price goes back up to $50.

It will happen. And SegWit won't happen on Bitcoin.

He just explained it all to you, if you are paying attention.

I believe EW analysis is as good as tossing a coin.

But the descending broadening wedge breaks out to the upside 79% of the time:

Charlie Lee works for Coinbase. I presume Blockstream's bankster backers will realize they need to move forward and Litecoin provides them the easiest transition to do so, if they can't attain consensus for activating SegWit for Bitcoin. All affected parties will be forced to move in the path of least resistance.

Frankly I think it is quite dangerous to activate such radical changes to Bitcoin. Much better to activate on a lesser blockchain so if there are flaws and bugs then Bitcoin isn't as affected. Bitcoin needs to be stable and prioritize continuity, because it is intended to the gold standard of blockchain tokens.

LN is all about enabling private fractional reserve banking with centralized hubs. LN just doesn't scale otherwise (due to routing and other issues). That is probably why Blockstream received $70m in funding. Perhaps they thought they could hijack Bitcoin, but they will have to face the reality of the situation.

Ethereum will be shipping a beta of a LN clone soon named Raiden. So the pressure is mounting on Blockstream and also on everyone invested in Bitcoin. Seems to me that Litecoin is the best option available to all affected parties.

Perhaps Blockstream can sell the idea to themselves by keeping their options open to potentially migrate the new technologies to Bitcoin someday, while pushing forward on Litecoin as a testbed and also to get real world adoption underway asap.

It just makes all the sense to stop this squabbling and move on/forward. Our productive energies are best spent on evangelizing blockchains and not fighting amongst ourselves.

Guys the reason it will be Litecoin and not another altcoin is because of the hypothesis that I explained where miners can make a shit load of money if Litecoin price goes up because the supply of ASICs is insufficient.

https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools

f2pool looks like it's consistently mining segwit blocks now, hope this is not some april fools joke by those damn chinese.

Anyway it was sweet to see my 75 sell order filled and getting a dip as it failed to go beyond the last resistance, now im totally out of LTC with no loses and all gains. Lets see if I can pick up at <60 without missing the boat.

It is April 1 where I am in Asia.

We'll see how it plays out. Seems they want to play with us like a cat and mouse. But I think the economic reality is what it is.

He is not signaling multiple conflicting things on Litecoin. He is using the above obfuscation exactly as I predicted he would. The economic reality is:

https://twitter.com/f2pool_wangchun/status/846760903739551744

If I am correct about my design, we (all humans) will get the last laugh, but it will take a while.

In the meantime, we have to deal within the reality that Satoshi gave us. And that is Bitcoin will remain immutable. So Litecoin is where we can have big blocks, SegWit, and LN.

Notice how F2Pool has used April fools as a way to signal SegWit on Litecoin but to make it seem like he wasn't serious because he signaled conflicting things on Bitcoin. He is serious about the signaling on Litecoin. He wants SegWit (look at his efforts on Syscoin to test out activation), but he doesn't want to create conflict with those on Bitcoin who know that we must keep small blocks on Bitcoin else we lose the equilibrium that Satoshi design. So he signaled nonsense on Bitcoin and signaled serious SegWit on Litecoin.

The miners are navigating opportunity costs and power structures that Satoshi's design enables. I agree the process is noisy. Noise is a result of the imperfect matching of fungible money and non-fungible knowledge value. I wrote about this extensively else where. Very abstract concepts.

Re: BITCOIN or LITECOIN on segwit, which one is first?

Litecoin will get SegWit.

Bitcoin never will.

And this is good for Bitcoin (and Litecoin).

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.18408701
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.18408976

It looks like f2pool is doing something... If this news is true, this may be a good thing for Litecoin: https://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/62nuwq/f2pool_just_signalled_for_segwit/

If I were a whale I'd pay me to STFU.

F2Pool just signaled and LTC exploded from $6.4 to $7.5 on huge volume. This will put segwit at 55-60%. This will leave two more main pools needing to activate to get there. My guess is the whales will form new bases and pump before each subsequent pool activating.

I think LTC has a new base at $6+ now. This sets it up for another pump to $10 (which will be the highest price it has been since the 2013 bubble), and then either BW or Batpool flipping the switch putting us on the brink of segwit. The FOMO will get unbelievable when we are sitting at 70-71%.

Signalled on last four blocks found according to this link:


https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools

Re: F2Pool started signalling Segwit


I predicted this and explained my theory of why they are obfuscating on Bitcoin. Remember Litecoin SegWit activates with 75%, and Bitcoin with 95%.

It is quite clear what has been going on. The whales and miners are jockeying for maximum stake in the blockchain ecosystem, wherein Bitcoin remains the immutable master blockchain.

Re: What happened to BU?


As planned by the Chinaman as a way of misdirecting our attention, BU died and SegWit on Litecoin was achieved instead.

I never understood why the Chinaman was dumb enough to support a the technological idiocy in BU, and now I understand it was a diversionary manipulation that was never intended to be carried out.

Because small blocks are absolutely necessary to maintain the equilibrium of power structure of a stalemate that Satoshi designed into the system.

You keep ignoring this, even I have told you many times to go read the thread linked below:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.18408976

It seems simple to you that big blocks are better, because you don't comprehend that we must have an immutable master blockchain else we do not get Nash's ideal money. Until you understand that, then you understand nothing about Bitcoin.

Until you understand that really well, you will continue to talk nonsense and not realize that you are.

Of course we can have bigger blocks, on Litecoin. As explained at the above linked post. Please slow down and read.

Looks like I was right after all. I hope you guys dumped your litecoin before the whales did/do. How many of you got caught in this trap?

PoW is only immutable on the master blockchain. The lesser altcoins can be manipulated by arbitrage employing the fulcrum of the master Bitcoin. Litecoin appears to ready to lose its immutability and adopt SegWit because the miners and whales (who are the same in both BTC and LTC btw) are able to take advantage of the ability to dominate a lesser market cap with a greater one. This creates a game theory opportunity where the previously manipulation of LTC to force it to be undervalued will now be reversed so that there will be scarcity of mining supply thus motivating miners to vote for activating SegWit to maintain the ramp up in the price.

Click and read these for details:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.18399606
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.18405746


That is exactly what I was thinking because the tail doesn't wag the dog. Thus the high finance in Bitcoin (think of MPEx at its peak) will remain the master of the slave "sidechains". Note the Blockstrream Sidechains concept is insolubly insecure (find my discussion with @ArticMine about that), so the altcoins will be the "sidechains".

Thus the BTC whales (or dolphins) who also move early into LTC (in order to increase their share of the crypto ecosystem) are not doing harm to Bitcoin. They are making Bitcoin stronger by alleviating the mismatch of immutability to Blockstream's plan to get versioned softforking into the protocol (hidden in the SegWit change), which would upset the balance-of-power that Satoshi designed.

Better to put that level of protocol mutability into an altcoin, so the stalemate Nash equilibrium game theory of master ideal money (i.e. Bitcoin) isn't threatened. Alleviating that threat enables the entire crypto market to move forward so we get on with the adoption and upward prices.

So that is why I am not selling LTC now, unless something comes along to indicate that my hypothesis was incorrect.

So I see prices ahead:

BTC: $2000+
LTC: $40+
ETH: $150+
XMR: $40+ (after a dip back < $15)

(Apologies I don't yet think in terms of a BTC unit-of-account)

So the new (higher efficiency) ASICs supply is limited. Exactly fits my hypothesis! By raising the price to a new level with SegWit activation, they will maximize their revenue if they have quietly locked up all the coming supply of new ASICs.

Are you claiming the SegWit activation isn't coming?

You see by getting all these miners hooked into an investment where they need higher prices, then they need to activate SegWit. It is a very clever strategy.

Happy to see you made a move.

Fundamentals are such that we should be going back to $30+ at least (of course nothing is guaranteed, make your own choices). Hang on tight.

It could get volatile so don't set a stop loss too high unless you want to get stopped out too soon. Don't trade unless you are good at trading.

You will understand how good the relative fundamentals of LTC are when you read my upcoming scathing analysis of Decred and PIVX.

There really isn't much in the way of quality altcoins with valuable attributes other than a handful including LTC, ETH, XMR (but in my opinion of the chart, XMR needs to go down to $15 first).

Re: Litecoin has potential. Beyond $50?


Wasn't that due to the DAO attack?


The game theory and economics is such that SegWit softfork (necessary for enabling the scaling of Lightning Networks) can't be enabled on Bitcoin. Stalemate is the indefinite status quo.

Litecoin (at its current market cap and situation at this juncture in time) has different game theory and economics, thus it hypothetically can enable SegWit and get rolling on scaling.

Ostensibly I threw out the hypothesis that the whales and miners have been (as quietly as possible) accumulating (both LTC and Scrypt ASICs) in order to prepare for a massive upward revaluation of Litecoin as the scaling option to Bitcoin's strict small block future.

This is very speculative (and rushed) analysis and lacking thorough due diligence.

Incorrect logic. Only the disgruntled minnows need to move, and remember (in a Zipf distribution) the minnows do control 33% of the wealth, but they just aren't usually organized and can be manipulated by whales. But there is something else maybe going on, which is that those BTC whales (and/or dolphins) who are on the scaling side of the civil war, now have a way to increase their relative wealth while getting the scaling they want. They can't act within the Bitcoin ecosystem without getting burned. But they can trade.

LTC provides a proxy for the various parties to profit on resolving their differences. Money moves in the direction of the least resistance and that which allocates capital to the most production.

LTC might flag pattern here a bit (pull back a bit) while the market digests whether Bitcoin is really stuck in a stalemate with ever rising fees. But it is very likely going much higher.

Remember silver is the money for the common man. Litecoin is the silver to Bitcoin's gold. Bitcoin is the money for the small blocks with very high fees. Litecoin will be the scaling currency. Of course the smart miners and developers had a plan B. It makes complete sense now in retrospect.

Litecoin will now be known as the scaling currency. Bitcoin will be known as the power broker's settlement currency.

Ethereum's Raiden which is a LN clone will likely be ready sooner, but Ethereum doesn't have the same security (due the hacks possible with its scripting and willingness of community to do HFs) as Bitcoin and Litecoin with more mining as it scales up to 1/5 of Bitcoin's marketcap. Ethereum is in a different market of doing more applications with blockchains, not just payments.

There is a reason that Scrypt ASICs were made. This plan for Litecoin has apparently been made a long time ago. Some smart people had foresight.


I posit that LTC is changing from weak, tired hands to strong hands who know the real value proposition. Once the weak hands are out, then we continue skyrocketing upwards.

Half of the entire marketcap of LTC was traded today. I've never seen that happen any where.

Dogshit isn't silver:



Chihuahua WoW has no SegWit/LN nor quality development.



You act like the DAO attack and community HF never happened.

Different security model entirely. Not immutable, more risk given Turing complete scripting. Yet also more experimentation for killer blockchain apps. Ethereum is a different market than what the silver to Bitcoin's gold must be.

I'm still invested in ETH because blockchain applications are going to have utility, and Ethereum is racing ahead faster with developments.

You don't get 50% of Bitcoin's volume without others realizing the potential and following the lead of the whales.

I have no idea why you think that accelerating scaling which Bitcoin can't do due to stalemate, isn't worth $billions if not $trillions.

In the past, LTC had no comparative advantage. Now it has a huge comparative advantage. Don't be late to board the train, because you are getting poorer as you delay realizing this new reality.

I have read the SegWit activation on Litecoin. Would be quite interesting how that plays out. But Its easy for a coin to rease 70% a day when it was only worth around 5 USD. In its glorydays it was worth 50 USD. Litecoin i dead for years. Its famous for hodlers who were/are desperately waiting to finally make some profit on this coin. Its way better to buy Bitcoin because Bitcoin has much MUCH more potential than this pump&dump coin. You and I both know that this is a forced whale pump, not sustainable event-based or adoption-based growth. SegWit alone wont push it up with 70% in one day. Whales do.