Some chart analysis seems to indicate ETH is undergoing a pump for the following reasons and could reach $200. I've traded some BTC to ETH because:
1. Appears likely ETH will be first to ship some sort of beta for a Lightning Networks instant transactions clone. Although LN (and also Ethereum's Raiden) requires centralized hubs (for any reasonable usability and scaling) and thus aren't generalized instant txns (
i.e. can't do what my OpenShare project will do), they will fool the n00bs and there will be a lot of hype value.
2. Numerous ETH smart contract Dapp ICOs underway, driving demand for ETH (at least until those ICO devs cash out to BTC but they will likely hold during the current ETH rocket shot because of #1).
3. Hedge against the current Bitcoin Unlimited fiasco, which is creating a confidence problem for Bitcoin near-term (might cause Bitcoin to waffle for a while?). I believe others will also want to hedge BTC and the above #1 and #2 adds reasoning to diversify into ETH.
I still don't think Ethereum can scale decentralized (Casper is technological junk), but it doesn't matter because the FOMO fever of greater fools will be intensified by the hype value. And I don't think Ethereum smart contract apps will attain any real world adoption, rather their only utility is as speculator gambling tokens. Nevertheless the FOMO hype contagion is going to very intense. So this appears to be the best altcoin to diversify into. ETH is following DASH's recent to-da-moon chart pattern. It is just time.
This doesn't change the viability of my project at all. My project comes in the next wave (later in 2017 hopefully).
Unlimited block size may not be a technological solution, but I think the end-game would be reasonably far off - at least a year or two.
And chaos in the meantime possibly enabling Ethereum to take the #1 position and run far ahead with the ecosystem network effects. Bitcoin potentially killed once it loses is #1 position.
I've already hedged by trading some BTC to ETH
as I wrote today.
Thus I expect the market to kill BTU when the opportunity presents itself. Because the competition from Ethereum by this summer is going to be forcing the Bitcoin camps to strangle each other and have a winner. I am hedging because it appears that many n00bs (even so many proclaimed experts who comment in these threads suck as @franky1) are technologically ignorant enough to believe that unlimited block size is good.
It doesn't mean I like Core's attitude, politics (see my prior fights with @gmaxwell for example), and their bankster funding, but I am just being pragmatic about the fact that there is no fix for Satoshi's PoW, and at least LN provides some hype about moving forward towards instant transaction scaling (although it must be through centralized hubs to actually work and even then it has many flaws).
Personally I'd rather risk choosing the BU team since they can learn and add to the team, whereas core is so sclerotic that it would be game over immediately.
But look how incompetent BU is! They totally mucked up the game theory and math on unlimited blocks. Roger Ver has been spreading incorrect technological argumentation about 0-confirmation security.
So I don't want them in charge. They will surely destroy Bitcoin because they are young, inexperienced, and incompetent. And they don't have the level of technological peer review and IQ that the collective 170+ developers on Core have.
And worst of all, they think they are so righteous yet blind to how their proposals are objectively worse (or they are deviously hiding what their true aims are). Given that
Roger Ver is apparently now involved with the fraud model of DASH, it makes me ponder there is more going on than the eye can see.
Here we go:
Time to dump all the coins, too much uncertainty about the future of bitcoin, hostile takeovers, splits, change in PoW, value is going down, time to take profits and wait for some stability.
Although this wall of worry is a buying opportunity, because there must be a winner. But there is the possibility that ETH is the winner. Thus I am now hedging because too many Bitcoiners (especially too many talking heads) follow incompetents such as Ver and Wu.
