Topic: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious - page 21. (Read 36099 times)

Perhaps you missed one of my critically important posts lately explaining why gold is centralized but crypto-currency is not:


Bitcoin can't be regulated without a total order of government in the world. And that isn't coming in the next year. By the time TPTB get their NWO one-world government system cooperation in place, Bitcoin will have already served its role as the onramp to unregulated decentralization technology innovation.

China and others make a lot of noise about regulation, but as you see they all end up caving in and realizing they can't regulate private keys. Even if China monopolizes the mining, they can't blacklist private keys without destroying Bitcoin and forcing a new altcoin to rise to take its place. Bitcoin is far too small (compared the $trillions flow of FX capital flow in China) for China to attempt such a scorched earth policy on mining at this time (and they would likely fail just causing the rest of the world to blacklist China's mining pools or a fork changing the hash causing all China's mining farm investments to become useless overnight).

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That is hand waving. The only way to stop someone who has his own wallet is to blacklist on the blockchain. Now that person can go online and state that his transaction has not be added by any miner after such a long period of time. The community will investigate. The only way to snuff out this exchange of information is to have a total order of totalitarian control on the Internet.

Sorry your fears are unfounded. If ever it happens, then we are already in 1984 and we're all doomed.

You seem to have a doomsday attitude, so I don't think you are likely to be in touch with the reality of what will transpire:


Btw, I have refuted the Singularity in the past. It will never happen.

I don't want to debate it again right now, which is why I didn't respond to the above comment in that thread.

Just put it this way, total orders have never existed in our universe. So the probability of total doomsday is 0.

For machines to become more important than humans from an evolutionary standpoint (which is all that matters actually in terms of species extinction), then they must become alive and that means they must have a bell curve of attributes and have failure. Because without failure, there isn't existence of life (the past and future will collapse into undifferentiated without friction and imperfection).

Infinite entropy can't exist. Kurzweil is a smart idiot.

Yes. Understand the role of Bitcoin is not retail transactions:


Bitcoin is the reserve currency for unregulated speculation and gambling. That is very important. It isn't going away. And it will only grow. Open your mind a bit.

We absolutely need Bitcoin for when someone such as myself (or someone else similarly capable who is healthy) actually produces an altcoin that can generate significant adoption (i.e. the World Wide Web of blockchains invention), then Bitcoin will serve the critical onramp role that modems served for the WWW. This is network effects and the Second Computer Revolution (analogous to the First Industrial Revolution of industrial production of raw materials enabling the Second Industrial Revolution of factories).

As I wrote upthread, we are in the "WALL OF WORRY" stage. Don't become complacent! The nascent decentralization movement will take over the world. Just have a little bit of patience.

Look the 150 - 160 IQ inventor of open source has recently stated (after I prompted him) that he might be interested to come in and work in our ecosystem (I personally will try to recruit him if I can get healthy and get my project rolling).

This reminds me of the phrase credited to JP Morgan, the moment to buy is when there is blood on the street, if you are an speculator you must look for instability because that is where the opportunities to make big money really are.

My theory on this is that at the moment is it very hard for bitcoin to go 'mainstream' with or without segwit/ blocksize increase, mainly because it is still a difficult concept to understand & secure, fiat works relatively well in the Western world for the masses and the propanganda machine is still (barely) holding on.

Anecdotally what we see is this

- when national fiat hits an economic speedbump an increase in local bitcoins seems to occur (Russia as their currency dropped etc)
- when national fiat gets devalued, and traders / speculators / those partaking in capital flight expect more, the price of bitcoin increases (see China & Yuan)
- when there is an economic upset (Trump, Brexit, unexpected Yuan deval) we see a bump in bitcoins price (whether speculators pushing this narrative or genuine movement might be irrelevant and become self fulfilling if speculation
- growing perception that bitcoin is a safe haven outside of government run systems
- limited correlation of bitcoin to other asset classes
- hype about the potential use of blockchain tech has gained some important supporters who see uses for their industries


So what can loosely take out of this? That bitcoin is existing as a hedge against the system and that in a crisis there is an increasing possibility of an influx into bitcoin.

Take this line of thinking into iamnotback's forecast of the rise of knowledge, decentralization and an upcoming, unparalled economic crisis (a mix of his own, Armstrong, Rickards, Pettis etc work) and the future is interesting.

If TPTB lose control & people lose confidence in The Fed, bitcoin is in for a hell of a run. If they manage to stem the bleeding and implement an SDR confidence stop-gap, that may deflate bitcoin but I doubt for long. If they go "ice-nine" then local bitcoins will be the biggest thing since sliced bread.

I think this is a fairly reasonable prediction, the only real unknown is timeframe.  One thing I really wonder though is this, can this kind of price rise happen in the short term without any sort of scaling solution?  Right now the bitcoin blockchain seems to be really feeling the weight of massive transaction loads, and solutions have been shut down at implementation level, both for things like a block size increase and segwit.

Will people just deal with long confirmation times (I've already had transaction take several hours to confirm in just the last week) and keep sending bitcoin higher? Or will we need to see at the very least a short term scaling solution for that to happen?  If the answer is yes we may see action move back to alt market for a time and have bitcoin stagnate (albeit temporarily, it will only be a matter of time for scaling to be improved), but I am not entirely confident about this prediction. 

If it is going to happen, it has to happen within that timeframe. Twenty years from now, the world will have moved on.

I don't think $5000 is the final top (but a significant pullback could occur some some where in that order-of-magnitude and above $5000, the upside potential is becoming more balanced to the downside risk). But $1 million per BTC ($21 trillion market cap) is totally implausible IMO (Bitcoin zealots please don't hate me, just expressing my opinion).

In that $2500 - $5000 range, I would seriously look to diversifying into an alternative blockchain project with some portion of your holdings. Napster wasn't the final word in file sharing. Bitcoin won't likely be the homerun final word in blockchains.

I understand the argument about the world rallying around the system with the most inertia, but the problem is Bitcoin hasn't yet identified the killer app of blockchains. So it is still prone to be upstaged by the WWW (World Wide Web) invention of blockchains whatever that ends up being.

It seems feasible in 10 years, maybe even less. 

A 10x increase today would put us at $11k and $180Billion market cap.  A market cap of $500 billion to $1trillion still seems relatively small for a currency, payment system and store of value system... In other words, $47k seems within the real of reason, especially if giving it 10 years - yet we also know that a lot can happen in 10 years that changes outcomes, too.

$2,500 to $5,000 seems like what I was considering.

Another statistic I like to look at is the 21 BTC holding value. 21 BTC means less than 1 million people club, being on that part must mean big wealth long term for the holders of such amount.

In order to be a millionaire with 21 BTC, we must reach around $47,000

The question is, what are the chances that we see such $47,000 in any of the following bubble cycles? is it possible in 10-20 years?

You are in the "MOUNT STUPID" or "WALL OF WORRY" stage. See the charts I quoted below...

That is what some people said about the Internet after the dot.com crash.

We are merely lacking the killer app for blockchains, just as the Internet (which existed since the 1980s) was lacking the killer app until Tim Berners-Lee released the WWW and the first web browser.

You will regret this tendency to become complacent with the nascent Knowledge Age and decentralization technology which is going take over the global economy:



Remember the greatest failing of the human race is the inability to appreciate the exponential function. Humans don't recognize exponential growth until it is already too late, e.g. on the 29th day of a 30 day growth, the lilies cover 50% of the pond and on the next day 100%.

As we divide into some groups and not all of us have faith in bitcoin, so whenever bitcoin price  decline, they fall to panic sell.
Even if daily traders like to buy and sell, but if the price decreases, they will buy and wait to sell again at higher price.
The cycle always going like that everytime before we really have big market cap and liquidity in order to prevent manipulation.

This isn't a good strategy if you are seriously going to trade. Sometimes it's good but in most cases it won't cause profit. People are selling bitcoin when it's price is high and you are going to buy it in that time? What about to buy it when it's price is low?
That strategy isn't good despite the fact that people are doing things wrongly when they are trading.

all i see is the crowd

That sounds like a bad strategy.


I do agree with the part about attempting to be one step ahead of the crowd, but you really cannot predict with any precision when there are going to be price reversals.


That is why the safest strategy is to buy as the price goes down and to sell as the price goes up.  You can choose the price increments and the quantities that work best for your situation, and maybe on the margins put a little extra in one direction or another, but otherwise, attempting to time the market too much would, in the large majority of cases, result in bad outcomes.

Is my basic trading rule, do the opposite every one does. If theres fear and "sell now" then I will buy all I can, if everyone are hyped and "to the moon" I will sell all.

That is a difficult one to answer.  If you leave your money in the bank/savings account, you get zero return.
If you invest in stocks (buy the ATH!) then you could get some profit, but it has to be due a big fall.
Bonds pay very little for what I believe is a bigger than advertised risk.

So Bitcoin, the price is historically high at the moment, but could easily rise 100%, or fall 75% in the next year. That is worth a punt and should be part of your portfolio, but is dangerous.

I would say that the 'safe' bet is PMs. I would have said oil, but it really seems like the $100+ prices are gone now due to fracking, and global demand will fall in the future with lots of countries desperate to pump everything they have, as soon as possible, before it becomes worthless!

I assume with that you are referring as well to the current stock market, housing prices in big cities, the value of the dollar, etc?

To be honest I wonder where the common man can currently safely store the proceeds of his work just keeping it's value?

I wouldn't give any speculation advice on an altcoin based on fundamental technological soundness. Altcoins are hype speculations. You have to know how to play that speculation game.

I can't conclude PoS is more doomed than PoW. Right now we could say everything is "doomed" but what does that really mean?

We are in speculative markets. Probably everything we see today is eventually doomed. That doesn't stop people from speculating.

I do observe the most successful altcoins in terms of marketcap thus far have been PoW.

So do you think all POS coins are eventually doomed? I think the proof of stake problem was never fixed was it? it's a big vector attack.

I was looking at dropping some coins on Iconomi cause I want to get more BTC and its one of the few altcoins with a healthy looking all time graph, project is interesting definitely, but the downside: its based on ETH, which will hard fork to go full POS ultimately... your opinion on this??

Market uncertainty as to whether Trump can really push through a 15% corporate tax?

Maybe by April he has done it?

I'm keeping an eye on Ripple. There's a bearish case to be made, but it's nowhere near as strong as the bullish one. From the weekly and daily charts below, it seems that XRP should start moving no later than early March.





Consider that XRP has been effectively flat in USD terms since early 2015 (with what looks like a possible mistaken order in February 2016) while mainly volatile in relation to Bitcoin. The chart formation appears to have bottomed out in BTC and has gained traction with global financial institutions during that time.



I will not be fully comfortable investing a large amount in XRP until the long-term downslope trendline has been breached to the upside, but there does not seem to be much risk in accumulating some quietly between now and then. The trend lines converge in early 2018 so holding will be somewhat long-term.

Interestingly, Armstrong is showing that April and May are going to experience increased volatility - right on time for a build in March to catch some attention. Bitcoin seems to be rumbling in that direction as well, so it will be curious to see what happens by mid-year.