Topic: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious - page 23. (Read 36099 times)

Indeed! All those who bought at the decline to the prior breakout price $788 should pat themselves on the back.

The $700 cup is still a possibility but that doesn't scare me.

Isn't now the exactly such time? Bitcoin dropped low and fast and there is no any directly information why it happend, so many people are on panic now. Good time to buy bitcoins.

This very high volatility is indicative of shaking the trees of weak hands and stop losses on the way to much higher prices.

The $700 cup is still possible though, because the price rise acceleration was extreme and we may not yet be ready to enter the phase transition. Perhaps the global capital controls are not extreme enough yet. Yet I think that accelerated channel may hold up.


Yet with $700 as the absolute bottom, I would be buying hand and fist with no stop loss above $700 at this point. Although they say don't catch a falling knife, but is this really a crash (exchanges being investigated bullshit rumor to shake the trees?) or just a taking profits -> stop-loss -> piling on short correction?


Again back to the theme of this thread. Buy when others are irrationally short or pessimistic. We are in a sustained bull market now. All pullbacks are to the bought aggressively.

My prior two posts explained why Bitcoin is in a perma bull uptrend now. The early adopter bubble of 2013 is behind us. We are in the massive adoption phase now as the new gold to avoid capital controls. This will provide the impetus for another massive speculation bubble with grandmas piling in later at nosebleed prices ($5000+).


Readers make sure you review the following two upthread posts:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.17172787

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16697003

The coming SDRs reserve currency will be a compromise by all the nations to fix the coming strong dollar vortex global collapse. That reserve currency is for the Industrial Age economy (the one built with huge fixed capital investment and huge fractional reserve banking leverage). The leftists (collectivists) are enslaving themselves in that dying, but huge albatross monolith. Gold is dying along with that physical economy. We will still have a physical economy, but it will provide no real economic growth and it will become very small in terms of profit relative to the Knowledge Age economy over the coming decades.

Bitcoin, blockchains, and altcoins are the decentralization technology of the fledgling Knowledge Age which rises to replace the dying Industrial Age, as a network effect of the decentralized Internet. Bitcoin is the reserve currency of that new nascent economy.

The economy and society are bifurcating. I predicted this years ago and have been using that term bifurcation.

Imagine my surprise when the projection channel (red parallel lines) that I had added yesterday wound up being the stopping point of the decline.



Price had spiked to just below that channel but climbed back in almost immediately. It is still possible for a decline to around $700 but, if the projection channel holds, we may be set for an acceleration in value to the upside. Otherwise the longer-tem handle of the cup & handle becomes a stronger probability.

For now, I'm buying a small position at 780 with an eye to stop out at 760.

Yes, my mistake - altcoin reserve.

Would it be possible for Bitcoin to become a global reserve currency at all? I'm assuming competitive collusion among major governments along with addition of control and tracking sufficient to enable AML/KYC for those governments.

The following is scaremongering nonsense:

https://99bitcoins.com/why-is-bitcoin-going-down/

That author needs to read this thread and pay attention to the charts I posted upthread about technology adoption.

Bitcoin is now entering a more mature phase of investment/speculation (albeit with increasing volatility as the price moves higher faster) as it has matured into a vehicle for international capital transfer. The current price rise is a stable trajectory which is only in its infancy. The price is going much, much higher.

We might stall out in a cup formation for some months, but that would be the worst case scenario. There is a potential of moving higher sooner, perhaps within 3 months or less.

Tonight some random 20-something filipina (girl) asked me if Bitcoin is real bcz her friend is trying to sell her Bitcoin. That is a sign that Bitcoin is becoming much more mature! Asian girls selling each other Bitcoin.

Edit: more about my past performance:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.17462668

I have never said that and have instead argued that it won't be the reserve currency. Perhaps you are confusing where I have written that Bitcoin is the reserve currency of the altcoin ecosystem.

China has control over Bitcoin's mining and it is not yet a significant threat to capital controls (due to small volume), so I just don't see them reacting with regulation yet. Once BTC hits $5000+, then we may see China killing the nosebleed rally with regulation. It seems premature for them to do that now.

And because China controls the mining of Bitcoin, thus Bitcoin can never become the global reserve currency.


Armstrong is myopic in this case. He can't possibly see the technological future. He doesn't understand that crypto-currency and blockchains are not just Bitcoin. This a movement towards decentralization that is a fundamental technological change and it can't be stopped.

My whitepaper will improve upon PoW and PoS and we will enter a new period of rapid innovation. Stay tuned...

The point is that crypto-currency and blockchains are not just Bitcoin nor are they just about a money system. It is much more broad than that and it is about the Knowledge Age. The reserve currency is a narrow phenomenon that has more to do with the dying Industrial Age (see my comments in the Economic Devastation thread for more insights).

Bitcoin is serving a purpose in this evolution but it is not the be-all or end-all of this technological transformation.

Make sure you read this:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.17458485

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/the-overview/

BTC appears to be coiling too, which way will it go mates?

nice thread and analysis iamnotback, miscreanity.

I asked him this a while ago, he does not believe bitcoin is anything new nor is it going to survive, bitcoin didn't interest him at the time, so "no data"
I believe he would be able to forecast it now though to some degree based on smaller cycles, it may require too much research for something he believes will die in a few years.

There are a few issues that I have not seen cleared up by Armstrong. He has said that he does not dislike Bitcoin and stated that he thinks Google Wallet is more important. That may be on the consumer side, but the system is always more complex behind the scenes where I think Bitcoin is more apt to reside.

I had inquired as to whether Socrates has enough information to forecast Bitcoin. No reply was made and I suspect this is why there have been no charts on it.

Universality
One of the most significant positives for Bitcoin is that it is a common platform; no nation is actively excluded or prevented from using it today. Any consortium effort that does not involve all sides will invariably lead to a situation as exists with SWIFT wherein major parties are excluded or threatened by controlling members, so China may be more inclined to incorporate Bitcoin due to its relative control over the system and the appealing attributes that attract other other nations. Those other nations might be wary but would be unable to deny the established global usage and overall simplicity of onboarding.

Adaptability
Another positive is the adaptability of the sytem: Bitcoin is capable of changing to a greater degree and at an exceptionally faster rate than current financial systems. Capital controls including AML/KYC affect all forms of money and take time to implement; it won't happen overnight. Thanks to the flexible nature of Bitcoin, it is very likely that Mike Hearn's exploration of control and tracking in the system will become reality sooner rather than later.

Durability
The longer Bitcoin proves itself as a reliable platform, the more likely it will be that major government entities will adopt it. Along with that adoption, they will seek to undermine the liberty-related aspects via that flexibility just as they do with any other non-trivial freedoms.

As you've stated, Bitcoin could become the world's reserve currency - the institutional playground. This leaves me wondering whether a new Bretton Woods agreement may peg fiat currency to Bitcoin, probably at a discounted rate prior to being declared void, during a transition period. What remains is the time between now and then where there are no well-defined rules governing the cryptocurrency frontier. What will the pegged price be? How long will it take until the changes have been made? Will all major governments agree at once or will there be a polarization? Is this even what will actually occur?

I am not trying to increase my BTC. The 9.5 BTC I have is to pay my expenses over the next months. I should have sold some at $1100 because I was wallowing in illness and wasn't able to stay on computer.

My stance is that 10 x $300 is not going to change my life. It won't make a huge difference in whether I succeed or fail in greater endeavors.

So I am not going to panic sell at $900. We don't know if BTC might not go much higher right now.

If BTC bounces back up to $1000 and I happen to be on the computer, I will sell 2.5 BTC. But I am not selling all 9.5 BTC prematurely. There is a clear bull market underway and I doubt we are any where near the top yet. Prices will be much, much higher by 2018.


It won't go below $700. Period (unless something really bizarre happens such as China banning Bitcoin). Probably not below $800.

And it is headed to much higher prices. The bull market is intact and this is a healthy correction.

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While I think it may go down just as well as it may go up, I don't think it would go much further down, but it may go a lot further up..
Either could happen while I'm not paying attention so I am heavily debating entering a long right now to sleep on..

The potential upside looks much greater than the potential downside, with the chances of either being about the same, that is much better gambling odds than you would get in a casino..

I get tempted to sell at $900 (right now we are at $901) because the $800 ish stable zone (with a potential dip to $700) makes sense and I lost the possibility to make some extra BTC by selling at $1100, but im too paranoid about it... at the end of the day we don't know what can happen. Going from the current $901 to $800 may seem reasonable but I may wake up to $1000+ again tomorrow for I all know... this is bitcoin after all.
I don't want to be left behind in a bad move holding USDT (I would use USDT in poloniex so I can avoid giving details to exchanges since there's no way im dealing with real fiat, so USDT seems like the alternative to try to play the BTC market a bit and stay anonymous)

It is not certain, but I think Bitcoin is on a technological adoption curve and is not related to what is going on in the general macro economy.

Thus I expect the accelerated trajectory to hold an we will be back above $1000 before April and new ATHs before summer.

If my thesis is correct, the low of this correction should be above $800.

However, miscreanity may be correct and we may form another cup & handle similar to the Bitfinex correction, which might bring the low to $700 above the bottom upchannel support line with a much longer duration before making new highs. This would be especially true if we get any rumor out of China or India regulating Bitcoin further for capital controls. I don't expect it since Bitcoin is such an irrelevant small market cap, but Armstrong seems to think otherwise (yet he is not a Bitcoin expert and is always harping on this end of cash theme):

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/bitcoin-what-next/

In any case, I very much doubt that we rapidly move back to $1100 and this is healthy so the bull market remains intact for a longer period.

Also we will probably get a short-term bounce at some point during this correction. So we might move back up to say the $950 - $1000 level at some point in the near-term.