Topic: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious - page 24. (Read 36099 times)

Thanks

Updated view:



My trading target was (ATH - 2%) that resulted in $1151 on Bitfinex from the $1175 high of December 2013 (similar price levels on other exchanges). Price is now below $985 which is just back within the channel and has already made a 50% retracement from today's low. My view is to acknowledge the significant piercing of the upper channel border with a likely retest of the high, probably in the form of a cup & handle. The question is: how long will that take?

The Gann chart shows an important period ending this month. In the prior period change from May 2016, there was a head-fake dip just before price took off. Price then rose while gyrating around the Gann 1x1 line, all within the channel from the ~$160 low. We're also at the third pair of the Gann chart, which has been pierced but not yet definitively exceeded. The next Gann period changes in October 2017 which could mark the end of the handle. It is difficult for me to find any point where Bitcoin would decline below $800 during that period; sub-$700 would fall out of the channel and seems an incredibly unlikely path.

With the recent high I've expanded the channel. The initial channel from the November 2015 high is the blue dotted line with shaded area, and the second one from the June 2016 high is the thin blue line. The dashed purple line is the midpoint of the latest channel currently at just under $910, which is barely less than the initial channel top line at $920. Back in June 2016 the initial channel was tested but not exceeded.

Bitcoin is behaving very similarly to equity markets, albeit with a lag. This is probably due to a spillover effect where capital flows into the largest pools first (major currency and equity markets) and as resistance builds there, excess then flows down to the next tiers - including Bitcoin. Observe that volume is still very low compared to what would be expected during major runs like this with only Kraken showing a significant spike in USD and Chinese exchanges being consistently high during 2016.

Martin Armstrong has stated that market behavior this month should provide perspective for how things will unravel. I think Bitcoin will continue to behave mostly in line with how Armstrong describes the flows into other major markets seeking relative safety and return. That also applies to other cryptocurrencies and, considering the size of those markets relative to Bitcoin, they should rise at a higher rate.

This is a critical period and, unless Bitcoin retests or exceeds ATH again, I will not be trading BTCUSD until buying in the $700-850 range. All of my trading is now going back to crypto-only, primarily BTC/ETH/LTC/XMR. I will reevaluate toward the end of January.

tl;dr: Unless situation changes before end of January, Bitcoin in 2017 is likely to form cup & handle - handle may take most of the year to form and will probably stay above $800.

Welcome back legend.

The following was analysis from January 3rd.


Here is an updated chart.



The projection line tops out at about $1210 this week and $1250 by end of month. If the value doubles on a weekly basis, that is an immediate sell signal for me. It would have to approach $2000 in that case. Since we have not yet seen a spike in volume that would indicate trend exhaustion I consider that potential still in play.

Diversification assets in crypto, in order of preference:

• XMR
• LTC
• ETH
• ETC
• ZEC

Any others that are promising?

Perfect, it's clear for me now.

Thanks a river my friend

See also the sentence I added to my prior post.

1. Yes. That was only for a minimum objective before summer (perhaps much sooner).

2. Depends if we meander now or not. I will not attempt to make such short-term calls, because the shorter the term, less likely one can do better than flipping the dice.

Thanks for the quick reply, much appreciated.

1. Don't you think it's bearish to think for only $1.5K for 2017, unless you meant only the summer of 2017 ?

2. Where do you think we will top at 31.Dec ?

It is not possible to give a precise price point and timing. But we need to hit the extension of that upper green line at some point. So before summer 2017, it projects $1400 - $1500 (on a non-logarithmic chart or higher on a log chart).

We could head there very quickly or we could meander.

My gut says we are headed there ($1300ish) very quickly to a new ATH, then after that we will perhaps meander before going much higher. But it could be the other way, we meander, then later in Spring blast through $1300 to much higher prices.

The reason to favor not meandering now, is look at that chart. There is no overhead resistance until we get in the region of the former ATH ~$1200 - $1300.

Iamnotback, glad to see you are updating the thread, much appreciated

Do you have any ETA, when is the next big up leg could talk place at ? Before or after new year for example ?

Waiting to hear from you, in a detailed manner if you don't mind

Remember the theme of this thread. This pullback from $927 is very healthy, as it means we are going much higher. I was originally thinking I should take some profits ~$1000 or so, but with this pullback, it is becoming more likely that we are going to push much higher than the prior ATH.

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All the more reason I should not change it, just to piss off you fucking leftist retards who are evil.

To be a good trader you have to have a talent and necessary skills. I doubt that every human can become a good trader even if special traders book promise that. A think after bitcoin will reach the point of 1000$ many people will cash out their money and the price for bitcoin will fall. That's going to be good time to buy bitcoins.

Sometimes when buying it depends if you are a trader or regular user. For traders is very important to keep an eye on the market all the time aln "listen" how is behaving. Good traders can estimate the situation and go even against all trends and predictions and profit when other expect that at least. For common usres is maybe the best just for the moment when the price is afordable and then keep the coins long term.

With Bitcoin, it makes sense to buy (as early as possible) and hold.
If you plan to buy at the dips, you need to have cash in hand. There is a possibility that you might miss out on the real big bull run.
Plus you need to cash out at sometime to ensure that you can buy at the next dip.

linear scale...

Yeah, buy the dips and hold on bitcoin never fails to deliver, we just saw this in action a couple of hours ago, I bought at 765 dip and now we are back at 781. The uptrend is so healthy and strong we are going to test 800 soon.

With altcoins is too much of a gamble, you never know if you are buying a dip or you are buying in a never ending lowtrend towards infinite stagnation....

For trading in general it's buy on strength and sell on weakness.  But with Bitcoin's case it's buy the dips and hold, so the OP has the right idea, but only with Bitcoin.

OP, every time I see your username I read "I am not black" ......please change it

Now go out there and ask random people on the street about their perception of Bitcoin.

Bitcointalk.org exists in a bubble. We are talking pennies here if Bitcoin gets some real adoption / goes beyond the clickbait MSM view.

This works until it doesn't. A lot of people may think like you, "these suckers don't know once the software upgrades actually take place people will sell". Well it may turn out a lot of people think alike and it actually pumps harder after the software gets updated and you end up missing on further gains. The fact is, predicting dips is hard, but the real hard part is predicting when to buy back and when to sell at what you may consider a peak.

I completely agree with this logic.


SegWit, LN, schnorr signatures, etc upgrades + ETF (SolidX + Winkelvoss) are the rumors right now. I don't wanna buy after these come into fruition.


The only thing that slightly concerns me is that everyone seems to be bullish... which goes against the "buy when others are fearful, sell when others are greedy" logic