Topic: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious - page 25. (Read 36099 times)

Looks like a serious breakout to ATHs is within months:


Note they need the raise the upper limit of block size (while lowering the average block size with the one-time SegWit compression) in order to accommodate surge load and also one of the flaws of Lightning Networks is it can place very high surge load on the blockchain.

So although this isn't the fix for the long-term, it is a near-term solution to open the throttle on Bitcoin adoption.

And so as I told you: Bitcoin Price Watch; Breakout Time!

Overall good calls.. for me the uptrend is clear. We have been on the way up since january 2015, where me and some others called an unique opportunity to get in at such low prices (BTC traded as low as 150ish during that crash). Of course and always ruling out potential "hacks" (which btw, over time seem to be less damaging to bitcoin because it absorbs the impact better), the uptrend is still there and there are positive stuff to look forward with the up and coming software upgrades. The problem of mining persists, but I am also positive about us seeing the situation improve:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-fUosBOu58

Therefore and given that there's no real competition right now, bitcoin remains the king of crypto and every time someone thinks about putting their wealth into some sort of void outside of the standard options, they will think about bitcoin. As banning carrying gold around becomes the norm and more people get aware on bitcoin, we will see an huge surge in marketcap.

Im also all about getting rich through altcoins during BTC corrections.. problem is, I see less and less "serious altcoins" popping. It seems to me like everything has been tried before, and it has always failed to get any traction. Do you see any ICO worth investing at? Most ICOs end up at lower prices than they sell for. Once it hits the market, instadumps always happen, then it's when you should actually consider buying, in hopes for a post-ICO pump that may or not happen, so it's a total gamble. Even "really serious" coins like ETH can end up in an endless mess and never get anywhere after they peak.

I feel like getting rich with an altcoin requires very precise movements and situations... like the ETH/ETC mess was a good one. Or when new concepts are introduced like back in the day with NXT (I think it was the first POS) or Blackcoin (afaik it was the birth of "hybrid mining" and people got hyped) + all that marketing they invested at, or when there's a big project like MAID that has not gotten any press, then it goes viral, explodes in price, and unfortunately keeps stagnating for ages again.. there's always a big risk of buying something that all it does is stagnate unless you sell it at a moderate price increase (if you get too greedy, you will miss the pump). It sucks since you get way less profits, but it's worse to end up with a bag of useless coins.

Then there's Litecoin and the "silver" psychological factor (which for me is it has the "original altcoin" aura about it too)... you may think right now by looking at the all time graph, it has bottomed and it's a good bet to buy a decent amount for a long term strategy of waiting for a BTC disturbance and hoping for another LTC pump, but you may see it stagnate in slow motion for many more months... and who knows. We have not seen it yet, but we may start seeing "famous" coins getting delisted if they stagnate coupled with no software updates.

I just don't see anything that makes me want to move a single BTC from my wallet. All horses have been already beaten. The smart contracts one, the "anonymous coins" one with the XMR viral news and the ZEC mess, MAID as far as I know still fails to deliver what they promised, then you have ETH with the constant hard forks, the STEEM thing which got pumped by famous crypto people and we all know what happened.. I see no good investment opportunities, not even for pump and dumping with a reason other than pure luck (for example 1Credit whatever that is, just got pumped the fuck out out of nowhere)

"Buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious"

Do you not see the uptrend? That imaginary "double top" is just the unavoidable intersection of that powerful uptrend with the prior Bitfinex hack (likely an insider "hack" where the exchange is shorting and did the hack).





In the short term, anything is possible. There could be a hack or something which could create a sell-off and buying opportunity. But that uptrend line will over a long enough time horizon remain intact.

^ Buy low, sell high. Sounds easy in theory, but in practice most of us miserably fail while doing so (same for >90% of the actively managed 'professional' investment funds versus solid low fee diversified index funds).

Second best is just buy and hold. In the end they are after your appreciating deflationary bitcoins instead of your depreciating inflationary fiat.

I totally agree with OP's position and that is what any reasonable trader would want to do. To buy when the price is low and when people are not sure then sell when the price is on the increase then you make enough income. But the issue is "when is the right time to buy" when people are dumping? and you just decide to buy? what will be my basis?. If people are skeptical about a coin, is that enough reason for me to buy? among other questions that remained unanswered. Everything boils down to risk which a trader will take and sometimes lucky and some other times will be bitten hard.

greed + meaning less speculation arguments = welcome joe 

Like right now I suppose? People are beginning to be more cautious.

It is called 'painting the chart', so a meaningless indicator if you ask me.

Bitcoin has so much room to grow since it still is very tiny on a macro level. Not even a blip on the radar. So of course it is a good time to buy, considering the insane upward potential versus the limited downward potential (0.00 $).


Speculation Rule: sell when others are irrationally optimistic or too reckless. We are far from there at a meager 12 billion market cap.

@OP:
technically we have a double top formation with the lower second top on the chart for this year. This looks technically ugly, and I guess correction is imminent.
how about that? Do you still think it is a good buying time?

More on this...


Bitcoin has that problem of onboarding, but Steem(it) does not. And there is a better clone/kind of Steem(it) coming which I think is going to make it very easy for the people to get crypto-currency without needing to go through an exchange. And then the world will change. I say this, because I am the person who is creating this new project.

Why is not paying taxes bad for your country? The government is the most inefficient use of resources, so keeping resources out of the government's hands should be the best for growing the economy.

“An elephant is a mouse built to government specifications.”  ― Lazarus Long

You think the government is the only entity which can build roads, schools, and provide food and health care to the indigent?

Rather the problem in India is your country doesn't allow foreigners to invest there without a lot of corrupt bureaucracy. The problem of India is all the corruption. I read there are corrupt police and officials and it is very difficult and dangerous to attempt to do business there.

So what you really need in India is to stop the caste system and stop the corruption.

With crypto-currency and the Internet, we can empower the people of India to rise above the corruption, because the government officials can't control the Internet, the way they can control the lands, the licenses to build infrastructure and do physical business. The virtual economy is global and the people can increasingly go to it to earn income which can't be corrupted.

This is the future.

I am biased because I think I will kill Bitcoin in a few years.

But as for crypto-currency, I see it widely adopted in less than 15 years. Probably less than 6 more years.

Here comes $850 (in gold):

we all expect a sweet gift on the christmas , wish it is gonna be true.

i just feel like nostalgia, the same situation happened last year when bitcoin price dropped 4 months before the end of the year but gained back almost 40% in the early year , this can be happened again?

Waiting to hear from you

Well said.

But for iamnotback, where does he sees Bitcoin in the long term (10 - 15 years), for price and technology ?

Wild speculation is differentiated from certainly doomed.

For example, I could speculate a wild theory that the plan of the global elite is to capture Bitcoin and integrate it with their monetary reset, and ordaining it as an international system for exchanging value.

Also we can't be sure of the timing or even if there will actually be a shutdown of the current monetary system while transitioning to a new one.

And we aren't omniscient about what technologies might be adapted to Bitcoin.

Also we don't know what replacement altcoins might or might not scale up and provide an offramp before hand.

There is a lot of wild conjecture involved in all those factors.