⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Bundesliga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread 2023/2024 - page 22.

1miau

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Quote from: Trofo on September 16, 2023, 02:59:18 PM

I don't know if you guys picked on it but BTCGOSU is killing it this week. I have no idea how he is last one on the table and already has 22 points in this round. Something does not compute

BTCGOSU forgot to submit his picks for round 1 and 2, which is very painful to miss such points but his awesome result is also a good argument to keep submitting weekly picks, even after missing some rounds because of yellow caps. And it's still early where making up lost points is still easily possible.

Trofo

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I don't know if you guys picked on it but BTCGOSU is killing it this week. I have no idea how he is last one on the table and already has 22 points in this round. Something does not compute

He even got correct score on Bayern game, kudos efialtis, not an easy feet to predict that.

1miau

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Quote from: shogun47 on September 15, 2023, 03:36:45 AM

Quote from: 1miau on September 14, 2023, 08:03:40 PM

I'll skip this one and in my opinion bets on Stuttgart @2.70 away in Mainz or on Gladbach @2.40 away in Darmstadt are looking more promising.

I don't know whether it is quite easy to overrate Stuttgart because of that groundbreaking win against Freiburg. At home Mainz had a draw against Frankfurt and I don't think Stuttgart > Frankfurt. I believe these two games at home each with 5 goals are an exception rather than the rule. If they played these games again, and especially the one against Freiburg, it wouldn't be the same results I suppose.

Yes, very likely such results won't happen again in a repetition of these games, where Stuttgart won by a huge margin. But Stuttgart seems to be a really good team, especially striker Serhou Guirassy is playing very well. Today, Mainz lost at home against Stuttgart 1-3 and Guirassy scored 2 goals. Maybe it’s just because Mainz is not playing very well but in my opinion, Stuttgart can be a big surprise of our current season.
It's an impressive achivement from Stuttgart currently.

Quote from: shogun47 on September 15, 2023, 03:36:45 AM

Darmstadt and Gladbach is also unpredictable I think because of the Gladbach results. For Darmstadt this game is so important and I don't think this will be a win for Gladbach. It's time for Darmstadt to get their first points and this game is perfect for it.

Darmstadt will fight for sure but we don't know if fighting is enough to make some points for Darmstadt. Similar like Mainz today, Mainz was fighting as well at home today against Stuttgart but Mainz lost. Darmstadt can make a surprise but after all, it's still massively in favor of Gladbach in my opinion. Odds are still very promising @2.40 for Gladbach to win.

And Bayern only achieved a draw at home against Leverkusen. Looks like Leverkusen will be our season’s team to challenge Bayern.

shogun47

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Quote from: 1miau on September 14, 2023, 08:03:40 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on September 07, 2023, 02:06:53 PM

Quote from: 1miau on September 03, 2023, 08:54:27 PM

~
Next week Bayern vs. Bayer Leverkusen will be interesting.
After what we've seen so far from Leverkusen it might be a competitive game.

This will be an interesting game, but I’m more interested in the bookmakers’ quotes - they give 1.64 for Bayern to win. Am I the only one who thinks there is some value here? The only argument in favor of the generosity of this bet I see is that the game will be after international games and because of this the randomness will, as always, be above average. Under normal circumstances, I'm sure Bayern should beat Bayer at home even with a -1 handicap.

Not sure here because Leverkusen is playing really well currently. Even last season, Leverkusen won 2-1 at home against Bayern.
Maybe my prediction won't end well but how Leverkusen is playing currently, Bayern will need a really good performance to beat Leverkusen. But Bayern at home has been stong. It's been away games, where Bayern struggled last season.
I'll skip this one and in my opinion bets on Stuttgart @2.70 away in Mainz or on Gladbach @2.40 away in Darmstadt are looking more promising.

I don't know whether it is quite easy to overrate Stuttgart because of that groundbreaking win against Freiburg. At home Mainz had a draw against Frankfurt and I don't think Stuttgart > Frankfurt. I believe these two games at home each with 5 goals are an exception rather than the rule. If they played these games again, and especially the one against Freiburg, it wouldn't be the same results I suppose.

Darmstadt and Gladbach is also unpredictable I think because of the Gladbach results. For Darmstadt this game is so important and I don't think this will be a win for Gladbach. It's time for Darmstadt to get their first points and this game is perfect for it.

cygan

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 14, 2023, 11:22:22 AM

✂️
Thanks cygan too for the ping. Champions League pool not your thing? Wink

thank you for the invitation i really appreciate it

but since i'm already managing/participating in the two bl-pools and the fpl from icopress and also want to push my project Icarus further, i wouldn't do myself any favors with another pool and would unfortunately have to cancel... Undecided

1miau

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Quote from: KTChampions on September 07, 2023, 02:06:53 PM

Quote from: 1miau on September 03, 2023, 08:54:27 PM

~
Next week Bayern vs. Bayer Leverkusen will be interesting.
After what we've seen so far from Leverkusen it might be a competitive game.

This will be an interesting game, but I’m more interested in the bookmakers’ quotes - they give 1.64 for Bayern to win. Am I the only one who thinks there is some value here? The only argument in favor of the generosity of this bet I see is that the game will be after international games and because of this the randomness will, as always, be above average. Under normal circumstances, I'm sure Bayern should beat Bayer at home even with a -1 handicap.

Not sure here because Leverkusen is playing really well currently. Even last season, Leverkusen won 2-1 at home against Bayern.
Maybe my prediction won't end well but how Leverkusen is playing currently, Bayern will need a really good performance to beat Leverkusen. But Bayern at home has been stong. It's been away games, where Bayern struggled last season.
I'll skip this one and in my opinion bets on Stuttgart @2.70 away in Mainz or on Gladbach @2.40 away in Darmstadt are looking more promising.

darxiaomi

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I have really fear in how are the teams gonna come back after the international break, so when i put my picks i dont analize so much and went full hope and logic.

I remember last year we have one round after an international break where we have some really unpredictable results.

KTChampions

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Quote from: Trofo on September 10, 2023, 11:05:23 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on September 08, 2023, 05:08:47 AM

Theoretically, the BTTS bet could be a good insurance against randomness (if Bayern don’t win, it’s hard to imagine that they will score zero goals), but the odds are not particularly good - 1.41. Bayern may well win with a clean sheet. Although I'm sure Trofo will make such a bet Cheesy

I will certainly not make such a bet

Odds are way to low and I find it about same difficulty to get correct both to score on @1.8 odds and @1.4 odds. I never play odds under 1.5 in general and with both to score I don't play anything less than 1.6. No point in taking the risk for such small return.
~

Thanks for the clarification! For some reason, I got the impression that this is your favorite type of bet and you place it almost everywhere (especially where a lot of goals are expected and the bookmaker’s quotes are low).

Quote from: buwaytress on September 14, 2023, 11:22:22 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on September 07, 2023, 02:06:53 PM

This will be an interesting game, but I’m more interested in the bookmakers’ quotes - they give 1.64 for Bayern to win. Am I the only one who thinks there is some value here? The only argument in favor of the generosity of this bet I see is that the game will be after international games and because of this the randomness will, as always, be above average. Under normal circumstances, I'm sure Bayern should beat Bayer at home even with a -1 handicap.

You're not. In fact, their status as favourites have only gotten stronger over the week, pushing Leverkusen's odds to above 5/1 (with some help from a price boost). That's where my money's gone. I definitely believe in the restart factor of international breaks (so worry now if it's time to back Mainz). Form disruption works both ways, yeah?
~

It would be strange if you were looking for value in betting on the favorite Wink

There will be a lot of randomness (specifically where it is difficult to guess), I hope you will update your thread with a victory

Quote from: cygan on September 14, 2023, 04:20:03 AM

~
you have just under ~33 hours left to at least submit the result for friday's match

Thank you for reminding! It's already midnight, but I think I'll make all the predictions now.

CLS63

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I know that the season has just started. But everyone in the Bundesliga pool started very close to each other this season. If it goes on like this I'm sure that we will see a very competitive pool. I learned lessons from some of my mistakes last year. And I think I can finish at least in top 3 this season. I would never want to take on Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga.

mv1986

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 14, 2023, 11:22:22 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on September 07, 2023, 02:06:53 PM

Quote from: 1miau on September 03, 2023, 08:54:27 PM

~

This will be an interesting game, but I’m more interested in the bookmakers’ quotes - they give 1.64 for Bayern to win. Am I the only one who thinks there is some value here? The only argument in favor of the generosity of this bet I see is that the game will be after international games and because of this the randomness will, as always, be above average. Under normal circumstances, I'm sure Bayern should beat Bayer at home even with a -1 handicap.

You're not. In fact, their status as favourites have only gotten stronger over the week, pushing Leverkusen's odds to above 5/1 (with some help from a price boost). That's where my money's gone. I definitely believe in the restart factor of international breaks (so worry now if it's time to back Mainz). Form disruption works both ways, yeah?

Thanks cygan too for the ping. Champions League pool not your thing? Wink

Calling it a restart factor is interesting, but what makes you guys so sure that this will be more in favor of Bayern than in favor of Bayer? I will also go with Bayern here for our Bundesliga pool because betting against Bayern when they play at home is usually not a smart thing to do in a competitive environment, but I am seriously hoping and believing that there is a slight chance for Leverkusen to cause some headaches for Bayern. But yes at the same time I wouldn't bet a fortune against Bayern scoring 5 goals. If it's one of those days they will also beat a strong Leverkusen team with a -3 or -4 handicap.

Harkorede

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Quote from: cygan on September 14, 2023, 04:20:03 AM

the 4th matchday starts tomorrow with a top match (bayern vs leverkusen). so that everyone can make their predictions on time on kicktipp, i would like to remind all participants who have not yet submitted their picks
the following users are:

you have just under ~33 hours left to at least submit the result for friday's match

I have also submitted my picks too, thanks for the mention.

My picks aren't final yet, I just had to submit them in a haste, I'm sure I'll review and do proper adjustment before the first game kicks off, because it's always a shitshow with most of the top 5 leagues right after an international break, I'm trying to find out which players are unavailable for which clubs, and doing it for apparently 5 leagues, and FPL too, before adding Sorare headache to it.

This international break went by way too fast for me.

buwaytress

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Quote from: KTChampions on September 07, 2023, 02:06:53 PM

Quote from: 1miau on September 03, 2023, 08:54:27 PM

~
Next week Bayern vs. Bayer Leverkusen will be interesting.
After what we've seen so far from Leverkusen it might be a competitive game.

This will be an interesting game, but I’m more interested in the bookmakers’ quotes - they give 1.64 for Bayern to win. Am I the only one who thinks there is some value here? The only argument in favor of the generosity of this bet I see is that the game will be after international games and because of this the randomness will, as always, be above average. Under normal circumstances, I'm sure Bayern should beat Bayer at home even with a -1 handicap.

You're not. In fact, their status as favourites have only gotten stronger over the week, pushing Leverkusen's odds to above 5/1 (with some help from a price boost). That's where my money's gone. I definitely believe in the restart factor of international breaks (so worry now if it's time to back Mainz). Form disruption works both ways, yeah?

Thanks cygan too for the ping. Champions League pool not your thing? Wink

casperBGD

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thanks for usual reminder, but I have send my picks early this week

Friday night should be fire, between Bayern and Bayer, and will be interesting to see Bayer in Munchen, they usually bottle when in good form, and they started season very well, not an easy schedule, but wins in strike, especially important over Leipzig

cheering for them, but probably would have Bayern win on parlay, or goals

cygan

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the 4th matchday starts tomorrow with a top match (bayern vs leverkusen). so that everyone can make their predictions on time on kicktipp, i would like to remind all participants who have not yet submitted their picks
the following users are:

Code:

Trofo
morvillz7z
buwaytress
Little Mouse
vd309
Spack17
seek3r
darxiaomi
goodpunt
KTChampions
shogun47
Harkorede
LTU_btc
mv1986
Ulven
mitchr4
Omikifuse

you have just under ~33 hours left to at least submit the result for friday's match

Betwrong

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 07, 2023, 08:53:45 AM

Belated "well done" to morvillz7z and Trofo for leapfrogging me. Alas, I paid dearly for my faith in Gladbach and Freiburg. For many minutes, I was enjoying Gladbach, but the natural order of football dictates Bayern finally get their first win against them since 2021.

The only consolation I have is Mainz are trudging quickly down the path I predict for them.

Internationals are horrible. They reset form so anything is once more possible when we resume.

And even more belated congratulations to morvillz7z/Hoody_Hoo from me! 14 positions up. What a leap!

I remember playing poker with you in one of the Bticoitalk Poker Tournaments, and you werwe good. But it looks like you are good not only in poker, eh? Good job, mate!

I will do my best in the next Matchday, but so far I'm in the bottom. Embarrassed

Trofo

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Quote from: KTChampions on September 08, 2023, 05:08:47 AM

Theoretically, the BTTS bet could be a good insurance against randomness (if Bayern don’t win, it’s hard to imagine that they will score zero goals), but the odds are not particularly good - 1.41. Bayern may well win with a clean sheet. Although I'm sure Trofo will make such a bet Cheesy

I will certainly not make such a bet

Odds are way to low and I find it about same difficulty to get correct both to score on @1.8 odds and @1.4 odds. I never play odds under 1.5 in general and with both to score I don't play anything less than 1.6. No point in taking the risk for such small return.

That being said Bayern - Leverkusen should be full of goals and I just made a question in BSFL about that

By the way, if someone plans to join BSFL now is the time, that will get you opportunity to play Newcastle Champions League promo and new season will start in about month.

KTChampions

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Quote from: casperBGD on September 07, 2023, 02:30:21 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on September 07, 2023, 02:06:53 PM

~snip
Under normal circumstances, I'm sure Bayern should beat Bayer at home even with a -1 handicap.

agree, but Bayer had a good season start, and that probably influenced odds
looking at their H2H, Bayern is always on top of their matches, and especially when Bayer is in good form, then they are easier to swallow, not sure why, probably play more open, and easier conceive goals

@1.6 it is really a value bet, not saying it will come true, but playing value bets is a good tactics, better to guess when odds are better

Theoretically, the BTTS bet could be a good insurance against randomness (if Bayern don’t win, it’s hard to imagine that they will score zero goals), but the odds are not particularly good - 1.41. Bayern may well win with a clean sheet. Although I'm sure Trofo will make such a bet Cheesy

casperBGD

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Quote from: KTChampions on September 07, 2023, 02:06:53 PM

~snip
Under normal circumstances, I'm sure Bayern should beat Bayer at home even with a -1 handicap.

agree, but Bayer had a good season start, and that probably influenced odds
looking at their H2H, Bayern is always on top of their matches, and especially when Bayer is in good form, then they are easier to swallow, not sure why, probably play more open, and easier conceive goals

@1.6 it is really a value bet, not saying it will come true, but playing value bets is a good tactics, better to guess when odds are better

KTChampions

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Quote from: 1miau on September 03, 2023, 08:54:27 PM

~
Next week Bayern vs. Bayer Leverkusen will be interesting.
After what we've seen so far from Leverkusen it might be a competitive game.

This will be an interesting game, but I’m more interested in the bookmakers’ quotes - they give 1.64 for Bayern to win. Am I the only one who thinks there is some value here? The only argument in favor of the generosity of this bet I see is that the game will be after international games and because of this the randomness will, as always, be above average. Under normal circumstances, I'm sure Bayern should beat Bayer at home even with a -1 handicap.

buwaytress

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Belated "well done" to morvillz7z and Trofo for leapfrogging me. Alas, I paid dearly for my faith in Gladbach and Freiburg. For many minutes, I was enjoying Gladbach, but the natural order of football dictates Bayern finally get their first win against them since 2021.

The only consolation I have is Mainz are trudging quickly down the path I predict for them.

Internationals are horrible. They reset form so anything is once more possible when we resume.

Topic: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Bundesliga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread 2023/2024 - page 22. (Read 7083 times)