Topic: Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model - page 7. (Read 123222 times)

You must understand that he shorted 1BTC and now is praying for drop to buy two.

You are predicting 31k (almost 70 times today's price) exactly one year out and you're saying you don't want to frighten anyone 

Heh... I don't wanna frighten anyone here with this post, LOL but just for the sake of illustration...

I made a graph using Mr. Reed's chart and a cut & paste of the previous HIGH PRICE divergence from the trendline, i.e. to show what a similar extreme LOW might look like... flipped the line horizontal/vertical and lined up with red trend line and today's price point.



Yeah, it's UGLY man... UGLY!  Oh!  Oh!  and "AAAAAAAA" Jesus God I sure HOPE we don't all have to endure some valley of HELL on Earth like this... "AAAAAAA"     

But y'know just the same -- ya gotta take the bad with the good, right?  And if our little bitcoin Engine That Could can go PLUS+ this extreme, we all ought to be prepared to also accept it as "normal" in case it's gotta go MINUS- this extreme too, sometimes.

I know, I know, LOL.  Ugly.  But talk about the ultimate "shake out" of weak-hands?  LOL

Maybe the only consolation here IF (God Forbid) this really has to happen, look where we still end up after reconvergence to trend line middle of next year.  Whew! 

I don't know about you guys but IF (again, God Forbid) something like this DOES have to happen, I'm prepared to go down with the ship psychologically speaking, just so that I'll still be "afloat" when the rescue helicopter finally DOES arrive. 

because profit

if i'm careful i will more likely make money than lose money, even if i can't make as much as i hoped.

i will still leave some reserves just in case i do screw up though.

Why take the chance then?

yes, be prepared for corrections up till even about 60~70%

they will likely happen, many people will likely either panic (god i hope they don't suicide, there are crazy persons in the world..) or troll the forums. The media will be all over it and we might see another few months of recovery and extremely negative media followed by media silence.

Meanwhile all your friends who know you have bitcoin might think you are a millionaire than, etc.
Prepare yourself, now rather than later.

I will try to at least double my bitcoin holdings in the next rally, but i hope i don't screw up massively because the next one will likely not be anything like the others before it.

If our history shows anything it's that a 50% correction is highly likely.

I'm not worried about high it goes...10K is just dandy  
It's how low when it bursts.  a 50% correction from 10K  will be scary.

  gold

Hopefully it wont be such a violent bubble next time.I think many Hodlers will start selling big time when it hits the high thousands and limit the size of the bubble.Of course the complaints will still exist if it falls from 10K to 8K ....

But when it returns to the norm afterwards we'll face the biggest "bubble" and "tulip mania" accusations yet. People who sold at or near the peak will be referred to as "those that got rich of Bitcoin" and will be labelled as scam artists and villains. People are fucking stupid. Be prepared for that.

At some point...if it reaches +0.7 the entire world will suddenly be aware of the bitcoin goldrush, it will be on the front of every money section of every newspaper and website in the world.


 

i guess that depends on how high we will go the next rally.

if we go +0.8 log delta the model is fine, but if we barely touch +0.1 or not even positive deltas than we can be fairly sure it needs to be adjusted.

If we go back to +0.4 delta (which i still expect) than we can just assume this is a negative outlier, just like the positive outlier earlier.

In my opinion ±0.4~0.45 is the standard, but outliers up till ±1.75 can happen occasionally. (yes, crazy swings, but this is bitcoin anyway)

It all has to do with the failed adoption around february/march (maybe because of all the FUD around then) that massively delayed everything. But if all the good news the past 7 months or so are any indication of what will happen, we may as well see +0.7 or higher in the upswing.

I really hope so, but still i think it may be a little optimistic.

I mean even +0.4 would mean 15000~17000 (assuming november~january), +0.7 would mean 30~35k or so. I don't think we're ready for that yet, but on the other hand i wouldn't be too surprised if bitcoin goes all crazy again. It wouldn't be the first time it happened.

Is it possible to make this thread sticky? Thanks for updating a very interesting chart

Maybe if the ETF opens, and Tiger Woods buys and some and convinces his rich friends to do the same.

I know better than to say that it won't happen.

Thanks to you Stephen! I genuinely appreciate your work.

I would wait until the next bubble peak to adjust the model, or 2015 whichever is first. The left end of the logistic function is constrained to fit through the first recorded price. The right end of the model, I try to fit so that the recent variation is balanced above and below the line. If I were to fit the line today, I would balance the current price against the peak last November, and the trend line would likely pass through the low price in April 2014.

Thanks to all of you for watching this model unfold.

At what point south of -0.8 log delta does the model need to be adjusted?

Here is the chart from Blockchain.info showing the Number of transactions excluding popular addresses. It is for a two-year duration, with a log scale, and includes the data points. Note that the latest value is higher than any preceding point except for a few days at the peak last November. Should this data series continue to climb, I expect that bitcoin prices will also move upwards, perhaps within a couple of months.