Topic: Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model - page 2. (Read 123218 times)

It's happening™

well I still believe in that model 
...the more who don't the more likely it is

I'd love to see an update to this! Or at least figure out how to update it myself...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wd-uAzKv59-4NEpAhAgEEzvKU2wKiZkX3JqToCne3Jg/edit#gid=1

Probably needs to look into pushing out the timescale of adoption so the S-curve is not so 'steep'. And perhaps scale down final price target. Like allow 10-15 years to reach $500k coin or some such.

Might be time to resurrect this thread boys.

Love your posts.

I have invested differently up until today, made tons, lost it all again twice.

So have yet to learn a lot.


That being said, what I miss in your approach is that one should continue to keep an eye on fundamentals and risk/reward ratio of an investment.

We are active investors, coins, like companies, can do well, and gain real traction, real users, real utility, or just be stagnant or drop in real users.

As price in bubbles goes up, risk/reward usually becomes worse, and selling a piece is wise, but sometimes it's wiser to do nothing or buy more, if the growth of real users is even faster than the price.


Inverse is true too, it's not because something dropped a lot in price that it's a better investment and risk/reward ratio has gone up. If amount of transactions or real users also dropped a lot, or they lost their USP or just fundamentals also weakened strongly it might still be wise to sell and lock in your loss.


Easy rules to follow, like your SSS plan, are helpful, and secure, but if you want to do the job well, you will have to face the reality that investing, like entrepreneurship, is complex. There are no easy rules to follow. Everything depends on the situation. The best advise I can give is always try to be honest with yourself. We are emotional beings and fall in love with our investments, friends, partners, homes, cars, etc. But if something or someone is really not delivering the gains it should, it's in your best interest to face this as soon as possible, try to change it, and if not possible, dump it and find something better.

So I would say that cleaning up your portfolio from the losers can be very wise too, but you can only know this if you continue to study and judge the fundamentals and be as honest as possible with yourself. And ofcourse try to get rid of them on a rebound, or in a new bubble as chances are good sooner or later market price will overvalue again instead of undervalue.

I think it's pretty clear this chart needs to be readjusted.

The idea behind it is still valid IMO, just the numbers need to be tweaked to match reality.

Still way below this trend, maybe next year we might get near it. Either way, I am confident that we are undervalued by a lot right now.

no update ??

well, it's still possible, but it's a bit early to tell right now

seems like it will take a while before we take off for real.

It's too early to resurrect the linked thread, but when it's time, it will be epic

We'd have to get to $10,000 or so to be anywhere near the trend of this chart, while it's not impossable, right now it's doubtful this chart is even accurate still.

Let's see what the next few months bring, maybe we can draw some more conclusions then.

Any updates?

Well MY chart is still speculative, prospective, hopeful, maybe it will work out that way.  We'll see.

Of course nobody can KNOW it "ends good" yet BUT still IMHO if we look at the ENTIRE bitcoin price chart history, what do we see?


If somebody showed you this chart and said nothing about "bitcoin" but only like "Hey, I'm thinking of investing some money in this stock, what do you think?  Is it doing okay?  Does it look like it might continue to do okay long term...?"

What would most people say about it in that case?  
IMHO looks like a pretty good long-term investment, doesn't it?  

Anyone see any real permanent "crash" in there anywhere?  

Yeah, no, didn't think so... LOL  

Reminds me of the SSS Plan. Let's consider a reckless investor (hindsight is always 20/20) who did not have any bitcoins before they cost $1,000. Then s/he invested 50% of his total wealth (let's say it is just the absolute maximum that can be lost, not an amount that cannot be lost, which would have been an erroneous investment).

According to the plan, somewhere in between $2k-$10k, the raking should have started. But alas, the price turned down!

The bitcoins are only 20% of the purchase price 

So what to do? The answer is very easy: nothing. After the crash in price, the amount of BTC in the portfolio has gone down to 17%, which should be an amount that can be lost (if 50% was, why is 17% suddenly not? Do you even math?)

With the double-down, that is tricky. I advise against. If you had double-down in your palette, you would have done it multiple times already, dragging your whole net worth down and giving stress by constantly having tied your fortunes to BTC.

But selling is also incorrect. Cutting the long, fat tail of improbable but +EV nice returns for ... nothing?  Why would you do it? Adding +20% to your non-BTC portfolio is not worth it. There is no gain in hedging (a loss instead). The mental strain for keeping the long tails in investments must be overcome! In other areas of life, it is good to clean up. In investment, that is called throwing good EV and hedging away!

If you don't want to think of BTC, don't think about it! Just don't buy nor sell unless you are sure that inaction will lead to forced decision soon, in which case you need to reconsider.

We are all learning patience.  Patience is a virtue right?  I still believe though.  The chart ends good. 

Hi BitChick... thx for the ref to my post here, but yeah when I wrote that even *I* actually kinda didn't believe things might really go this way -- i.e. be DOWN so FAR for SO long, and we're yet *still* stuck here down around the middle two-hundreds???  Really srsly sucks  

But even so I meant what I said there and we-all GOTTA be in this for the LONG HAUL and prepared for the whole experiment to possibly just fail outright.  Could happen, sure.  But IMHO it's still more likely that we'll recover and hit new highs that nowadays we can scarcely even imagine any more, LOL

As I said later in the thread too: either you believe bitcoin and the blockchain concept is valuable and useful and world-changing, or you don't.


         

I don't know who owns this, but it would be nice if it got updated:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wd-uAzKv59-4NEpAhAgEEzvKU2wKiZkX3JqToCne3Jg/edit#gid=1