Topic: Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model - page 6. (Read 123165 times)

I think it the second one, metcalfes seems to hold, but since it's not instantaneous, it's not a great indicator for rallies.

My short-term analysis for what it’s worth… We saw some crazy trading and random madness at the end of last week, with a drop to $378. Volumes and volatility picked up nicely, but could and should be way better I think. Now it looks ‘business as usual’ again, but somehow I think we didn’t see the capitulation point yet. If we did, I’m not complaining of course lol! But looking back at late 2013, we saw a rather stable price around $125 for some time after some turmoil early September, then a sudden drop to $85 (-/- 33%) on October 2nd. This moment ignited the famous bull run which brought us to $1163 in November 2013. Somehow I’m thinking this type of moment is getting nearer and nearer again. And the drop from $400s towards $378 was probably not enough yet, in my opinion.

So I think we might see the following happening in the upcoming weeks. Price picks up slowly towards $450 (or lower, I’m quite doubtful about higher levels), then we will have another 1 or 2 days of craziness with another firm drop which will definately not be 33% like last year. Because all those % of jumps and drops seem to be getting less extreme over the years. So at $450 we will have a drop of ~25% which will bring us to $340, which happens to be exactly the lowest low we have seen so far after the $1163 top last year. Then, let the sprint begin…

Or, alternatively, Metcalfe's law doesn't hold for Bitcoin (it's "Metcalfe's conjecture" in reality anyway, as an economic statement), or, alternatively alternatively, Metcalfe's law does hold for the Bitcoin network on a long enough time line, but is a poor predictor for shorter term phenomena such as a the start of a rally.

Sorry, that I am very busy with my altcoin development. I will add the data series from Blockchain.info on bitcoins in circulation ...

Total Bitcoins in Circulation (CSV)

Obviously you are aware of Peter R's work re: transaction volume, Metcalfe's law, network value and market cap.

I'd be interested to know how far off the log trend of capital value growth, i.e. not price growth, that we are at present ... and what the previous largest deviation was using the capital value metric (not price).

i have been following those graphs closely, and i believe they are a good indicator. They also explain why we haven't seen a new ATH yet. Because we are not ready for it. But, we are getting near the point where we are ready.

According to this chart of the smoothed adjusted number of bitcoin transactions, the uptrend of the past few months could, if continued at the same pace, surpass the previous all time high 0f 76394 within two to three more months. In the history of this data series, a new all time high has always been associated with the inflation stage of a price bubble.

This is my falsifiable hypothesis: if the 7-day average of the number of transactions excluding popular addresses as calculated by Blockchain.info exceeds 76394, e.g. reaches 80000, then bitcoin price will be rallying into a new bubble.

Among the ways this notion could be wrong is that transaction volume is now including more bitcoin tumblers to provide anonymity, or some other sort of non-commerce transactions, not filtered by Blockchain.info's simple algorithm.

below -0.9 log delta and the line has gone down vertically in the last few days.
from the stock market-for reversal you typically need a capitulation (1-3 days) with an extremely high volume.
I posit that it will occur before the beginning of November (similarly to 2011 bottom). We seem to be in a purely technical decline right now.
Priceline was in such decline from $900 (split adjusted from 150) to $6 (split adjusted from 1) before it reversed itself and is currently $1186.

This thread is in my top five 

You guys might find this clever research also interesting, I'm sure. Volume vs price over several years, indicating we are at the brink of something.

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2h0b48/daily_discussion_sunday_september_21_2014/cko9o1n

Here is a great reference to the infrastructure growth and price (hint we in for some change.)
See: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8633552

The Jevons_paradox concisely explained.

BurtW also outlines the concept of price eras which is a function of difficulty that ultimately drive the total energy consumption of the Bitcoin network.

These price eras when viewed in conjunction with network growth, efficiency growth, available energy and price could in my view plot probable deviations from the Million Dollar Logistic Model mean.

We are at a juncture points now, but just off the top of my head this model may need to be refined to fit the price era data.

Maybe, but I don't think so. As you might have noticed, every correction ended above the previous top so far. That's not only a bullish sign for a long term investment in bitcoin, it is also an indication that we should stay above $266 this time. Currently my bets are on the 340 level to hold.

Nevertheless, the bitcoin rollercoaster is a pretty wild ride, and tickets are not for the weak of heart indeed.

I'd also like to see one using log "market cap" instead of log price ... i.e. a sigmoid curve targetting $17 T  ~2018

Slippery slope, could you please post two graphs for me keeping everything the same but the target bitcoin price at $250,000 and one at $500,000? I'm curious as to how the price would tie in with the trend lines.

So, 10K when?

That 2011 wave is the one I cut-and-pasted, flipped horizontal & vertical (purple colored) to show what it'd look like as a down-version rather than the extreme UP version that it was, back then.  

So, yeah, 93% = OUCH!! Ugly, man... UGLY.

But ya also can't really say here that the 2013-14 wave is "71%" to $340 low, since there's not been another ATH yet.

Who's to say the bloodletting is over?  Unfortunately, it not only may NOT be over yet -- it may (frighteningly) in fact JUST be getting STARTED.

How can we know, for sure? We can make educated GUESSES about what's going on, but we can't really KNOW anything.

And IF we apply that ugly 93% from 2011 to last year's $1163? We're back again to that horrible $100-ish value.  "AAAAAAA"  

But, again, this is NORMAL.  
This is BITCOIN.  
THIS is what bitcoin DOES.
Bitcoin is crazy.  

BUT THE TRENDLINE WOULD STILL BE "TRUTH"  




I do too, man... like I said I'm preparing for it: I wrote this post probably just to test myself about if I'm really correct to think this way, or if such "belief" in the trendline is actually stupid, or blind, or naive, or wishful thinking, or something else, LOL.

IF this kind of extreme scenario is possible?  I want to be psychologically ready to weather that storm, because the payoff on this once in a lifetime type of opportunity is definitely worth it.  $30K per BTC next year would be life-changing: I missed out on BTC going from $10 to $100 even though I should've known better (I had plenty of opportunity to see it, multiple chances and many signs, and I just didn't LOOK hard enough & been kicking myself for a year now over that).  But NOW finally I can SEE it (??) and I don't wanna miss the train again.

Anyway, IMHO either you believe bitcoin and the blockchain concept is valuable and useful and world-changing, or you don't.

Buy The Bitcoin,  Take The Ride... LOL
   

         

The figures for the most important bitcoin cycles so far are as follows.

2011 wave - correction from $31.91 top to $1.99 low (-/- 93%)
2013 wave - correction from $266 top to $55 low (-/- 79%)
2013/2014 wave - correction from $1163 top to $340 low (-/- 71%)

So yes, a correction of 50% - 60% is indeed very likely for the next wave.

I have. I prefer not to, but I have the stomach for that.

I'd say same upside prediction but we are 99% likely not going to go below $340, and 100% not going to go below $266...my 2 bits fwiw.

Ha, wachtwoord... naw I ain't "predicting" nothin'... it's SR's chart, trendline, Risto's etc... I'm just looking at it and hopeful it might really be true?

Just sayin' that IF so, IF the trendline's still "truth" and IF we might end up at that 31K price next autumn?  The benefits of that might only come to those who can pay the price of having to HOLD ON thru it first touching a hundred bucks or so again.

AND... that's "normal"    -- nothing much odd for this trendline & bitcoin's history.

But how many people, even "believers" here, really have the stomach for that?

Bitcoin is crazy.  LOL... so I think personally I gotta believe a little "crazy" too in order to be prepared to cope with whatever's gonna happen next in BTCWorld.

And no, Ask... I've never short-sold: I'm strictly a HODL'er although, yes, my dollar-cost average at the moment is something in the low $600's-ish, so yah unfortunately I'm actually in the red with my overall BTC investment, so far... *but* I'm still hodlin' and lookin' to buy more if at all possible.