320*1.3 =~ 433 not 520
Roi in 2020
Does being that stupid actually hurt?
I understand where he's coming from. The original clock rate was 320. He's presuming they're talking about an additional performance on top of the original clock rate. However, that's not the case. They adjusted the stock clock rate to 400 in one of their announcements. So he's wrong in saying 320, but I can see why he thought that.
The problem with this is that it's linear thinking, you're not taking into account the efficiency increase over time. Think about how much advancement has occurred with CPU/GPU's over the past decade. Exponential is putting it lightly.
Yes there will be increase in efficiency but there's a technological wall at some point. 28nm will be pretty much the standard in months to come and that's about it. There could be 20nm but I don't see that happening for years to come. Mainly because it's not widely available and way too expensive.
But to have it double > double > double > double > double > double >double > double is impossible. Mathically/technologically wise. People don't seem to understand this.
It's like saying current CPU tech. It becomes double the speed/efficiency next year. and double again next year and double again next year. Going by the logic, by 2020, we should have 60ghz cpu with only 20w usage. lol. That's not exactly the case if you look at the benchmarks for the past few years.
Yeah that was the case back in the old days, pentium 1s but those days are over.
With bitcoin ASICs, you're already almost there at the top. Current bitcoin ASICs are not at Pentium1 levels.
It's still exponential because of quantity. Let's say they hit a wall with 28nm technology. They won't stop shipping in quantities, they will still be sold. Their price might go down some, which will encourage more sales. I say might, because not all MFG's have lowered their cost. And folks who mine altcoin can still find these useful tremendously.
This is something I don't understand. Folks are all up in arms about the systems not mining for useful profits beyond a certain point with bitcoin.. Ok? So shift your coins? I'm mining some altcoins using ASIC equipment and I'm making decent returns with them. They can be traded for fiat or, guess what, bitcoin.
Mining is a long-term thing, and with some sense, you can manage to get returns "somehow" by shifting what you're mining.