Winning toss and choosing fielding first also more important. I guess in this tournament Bangladesh and Afghanistan had chosen to bat first after winning the toss but ended up losing their matches if my memory serves be perfect. I am also in plan to bet after the toss but we need to remember that in the IPL final, CSK won the title after batting first on the same venue. So, we need to be prepared to face all kind of results as well.
Winning the toss and fielding first is the safe bet. Yes i remember the IPL final but the difference was the high score, chasing 192 runs will put pressure on the batsman and we have not seen matches in the World Cup where the team is constantly scoring above 180 runs. Anything above 180 runs then it is a different story, anything below that the team can chase if they have wickets in hand.
Absence of Convoy might be getting them negative impact to New Zealand in my perdition. Still, bowling attack in terms of both pace and spin, I guess New Zealand is in better form than Australia in my opinion.
It is unfortunate Devon Conway broke his hand and will miss the final, not sure who will be in the team as his replacement. I give the advantage to New Zealand and hopefully we will see a competitive match.