Tennis League All Thread - page 299.

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Quote from: teddybear on February 27, 2022, 04:57:40 PM

Quote from: casperBGD on February 27, 2022, 01:54:40 PM

Quote from: Trofo on February 27, 2022, 05:02:48 AM

~snip
Basically never take middle handicap @1.85, take one that pays @1.6 and you will pass much more often. This brings to my only problem with Sporstbet and them offering only middle handicap. Going to write about it in their thread once more

have to stop reading your posts, or I am back to betting, while I do want to stay on beer-money bets for fun
joking aside, it could be seen that you analyze all things about sports and odds, and yeah, that was almost identical to my thinking when I was more to betting

no ATP tournaments next week, set for Indian Wells

There's Davis cup this week and WTA Lyon happening starting Monday. Is there any news on Djokovic and if he's being allowed to play the US tournaments? It would be a shame to see him miss out on yet another tournament.

In this week the qualifier match for the Davis Cup is taking place. From some news sources it looks like Djokovic is added to the entry list of Indian Wells, though it is restricted to vaccinated players. Djokovic have said whatever the tournament I'll go and play if the opportunity is provided.

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Quote from: casperBGD on February 27, 2022, 01:54:40 PM

Quote from: Trofo on February 27, 2022, 05:02:48 AM

~snip
Basically never take middle handicap @1.85, take one that pays @1.6 and you will pass much more often. This brings to my only problem with Sporstbet and them offering only middle handicap. Going to write about it in their thread once more

have to stop reading your posts, or I am back to betting, while I do want to stay on beer-money bets for fun
joking aside, it could be seen that you analyze all things about sports and odds, and yeah, that was almost identical to my thinking when I was more to betting

no ATP tournaments next week, set for Indian Wells

There's Davis cup this week and WTA Lyon happening starting Monday. Is there any news on Djokovic and if he's being allowed to play the US tournaments? It would be a shame to see him miss out on yet another tournament.

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Quote from: aoluain on February 27, 2022, 04:40:00 AM

Yup, what a legend.
This could be phrased as "the Return of the King"

https://www.dubraybooks.ie/images/thumbs/052/0528324_9780008376086_625.jpeg

Nadal is definitely back on track showing consistent form and set to continue.
6-4 6-4 against Norrie, thats not a bad result for Norrie ^{no disrespect to him}, It almost
looks like Nadal is being efficient with his energy and minimising the risk of injury
by doing just enough to win.

What we see is the difference in the experience. Considering the experience of Rafael Nadal what Cameron Norrie have got is small. The result is not bad for Norrie, and throughout the tournament Norrie played the best to reach the final. What he said after the winning is something interesting, I've won against the fittest player of the tournament. Importantly he has won every tournament titles he competed in 2020.

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Quote from: Trofo on February 27, 2022, 05:02:48 AM

~snip
Basically never take middle handicap @1.85, take one that pays @1.6 and you will pass much more often. This brings to my only problem with Sporstbet and them offering only middle handicap. Going to write about it in their thread once more

have to stop reading your posts, or I am back to betting, while I do want to stay on beer-money bets for fun
joking aside, it could be seen that you analyze all things about sports and odds, and yeah, that was almost identical to my thinking when I was more to betting

no ATP tournaments next week, set for Indian Wells

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Quote from: Trofo on February 27, 2022, 05:02:48 AM

3.5 handicap - I am taking only when betting on favorites, never against favorites. If I want to go against favorite, much better option is that underdog takes one set

4.5 handicap - heavily dependent on who goes first, try to avoid it completely since it will often get decided on coin toss

5.5 handicap and higher - sweet spot to bet on underdog, this one passes with one break per set no matter who goes first

Basically never take middle handicap @1.85, take one that pays @1.6 and you will pass much more often. This brings to my only problem with Sporstbet and them offering only middle handicap. Going to write about it in their thread once more

Makes a lot of sense to me, and yeah, Sportsbet problem is this is all you got, and because it looks like a good bet for an acca, I had no hesitation taking it, but I'll bear this in mind (if I don't distract myself with correct scores which is my downfall especially if huge price boosts are available) to take one barely above the min 1.5 required, or to take your sweet spot underdog 5.5.

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Quote from: buwaytress on February 26, 2022, 11:53:18 AM

Quote from: Trofo on February 26, 2022, 07:01:50 AM

I said yesterday that I will skip the final but I placed +5.5 handicap on Vesely in the end.

Great calls so far my man, and it led me to have to take this as well -- making it my weird first leg in the you-know-which-sportsbook-gives-free-insurance-on-5-legs daily I'm taking today. I only take +3.5 handicap though, and had to smack myself now as it's already dead, so quick resolution too, I guess we were wrong about the adrenaline pumping him up. Not that I was watching but the loss was pretty tame by the standards he set.

Here is my take on tennis handicaps and how I like to play them in regards to tennis scoring and RNG. RNG in this case means who wins coin toss and chooses to serve first. Vast majority of players choose to go first, Nadal was one of the few that chose to receive but not anymore.

3.5 handicap - I am taking only when betting on favorites, never against favorites. If I want to go against favorite, much better option is that underdog takes one set

4.5 handicap - heavily dependent on who goes first, try to avoid it completely since it will often get decided on coin toss

5.5 handicap and higher - sweet spot to bet on underdog, this one passes with one break per set no matter who goes first

Basically never take middle handicap @1.85, take one that pays @1.6 and you will pass much more often. This brings to my only problem with Sporstbet and them offering only middle handicap. Going to write about it in their thread once more

Big congrats to Nadal, he won this one day before against Medvedev, never expected Norrie to make things complicated for him

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Yup, what a legend.
This could be phrased as "the Return of the King"

Nadal is definitely back on track showing consistent form and set to continue.
6-4 6-4 against Norrie, thats not a bad result for Norrie ^{no disrespect to him}, It almost
looks like Nadal is being efficient with his energy and minimising the risk of injury
by doing just enough to win.

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Quote from: casperBGD on February 27, 2022, 03:04:15 AM

it is actually third in a row for Nadal, since comeback, since he won Melbourne prior to Australian Open, it is not a major tournament, but counts eventually
not typical for Nadal, but he lost gem, when he served for match in second set, and had generally many, two lost service gems in second set, but Norrie looked too tired to play

Norrie now has to defend Indian Wells title, which will be very hard, considering all other players, but he is in good form, obviously

Damn man, 3 titles -- minor and major, they all count -- in 2022 and we're not even in March yet. And not so long ago him memed in crutches and I thought wow, it was supposed to be Fedex to drop off first, Nadal beat him to it.

Then we get served with this. Federer to get inspired and mount a quick recovery?

Youngest and oldest champion. What a legend.

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Quote from: Ratash on February 27, 2022, 02:12:57 AM

Nadal comeback was strong recently he had a comfortable win against medvedev 2 0 and today he won against norrie with 2 0 again and he won his second consecutive tournament it seems that we will see a tough competition in the next grand slam especially against djokovic since he will try to be even in term of grand slam won.

it is actually third in a row for Nadal, since comeback, since he won Melbourne prior to Australian Open, it is not a major tournament, but counts eventually
not typical for Nadal, but he lost gem, when he served for match in second set, and had generally many, two lost service gems in second set, but Norrie looked too tired to play

Norrie now has to defend Indian Wells title, which will be very hard, considering all other players, but he is in good form, obviously

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Nadal comeback was strong recently he had a comfortable win against medvedev 2 0 and today he won against norrie with 2 0 again and he won his second consecutive tournament it seems that we will see a tough competition in the next grand slam especially against djokovic since he will try to be even in term of grand slam won.

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Quote from: buwaytress on February 26, 2022, 11:53:18 AM

Quote from: Trofo on February 26, 2022, 07:01:50 AM

I said yesterday that I will skip the final but I placed +5.5 handicap on Vesely in the end.

Great calls so far my man, and it led me to have to take this as well -- making it my weird first leg in the you-know-which-sportsbook-gives-free-insurance-on-5-legs daily I'm taking today. I only take +3.5 handicap though, and had to smack myself now as it's already dead, so quick resolution too, I guess we were wrong about the adrenaline pumping him up. Not that I was watching but the loss was pretty tame by the standards he set.

Another great call by Trofo with a + handicap bet.
As @rdbase asked above if Vesely has more gas in the tank for the final,
it looks like he didnt and called well by Trofo. I only followed part of his
call, I didnt bet on him for the final or Rublev either.

I also didnt bet on either Nadal or Medvedev who went out at the had of Nadal
6-3, 6-3. Would have thought that was heading for a three setter. It looks like
Nadal is in flying form ATM.

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Quote from: rdbase on February 26, 2022, 06:26:12 AM

~snip
But even with the loss Medvedev will become world number 1 since Djokovic got sent out of the Dubai Open before reaching the finals.
Was thinking why didn't Novak play in this tournament instead?

it is because of sponsors, Djokovic played Dubai last year, and Nadal played Acapulco (both won those tournaments), it is not like they are afraid to fight each-other, it is that they will make more money this way

Nadal is actually in great shape looking this season, did not watch the match, but Medvedev had 11 break chances, without any break in the end
and Nadal is still without lost match this season, with this play he could reach no.1 at RG or even earlier

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Quote from: Trofo on February 26, 2022, 07:01:50 AM

I said yesterday that I will skip the final but I placed +5.5 handicap on Vesely in the end.

Great calls so far my man, and it led me to have to take this as well -- making it my weird first leg in the you-know-which-sportsbook-gives-free-insurance-on-5-legs daily I'm taking today. I only take +3.5 handicap though, and had to smack myself now as it's already dead, so quick resolution too, I guess we were wrong about the adrenaline pumping him up. Not that I was watching but the loss was pretty tame by the standards he set.

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Quote from: rdbase on February 26, 2022, 06:26:12 AM

After saying that, do you think Jiri has enough in the gas tank to face Rublev for the finals later on today?
Usually tennis players who have played such a grueling match like he did yesterday would need some time to recover and it will be less than a full 24 hours since that match and this one.

It is a legit concern and I already wrote a little about it but closer the match comes I find myself believing more and more in Vesely. This is almost once in a year opportunity for him and I am quite sure he will not give much thought to fatigue. He is flying high full of endorphins and this final should be a good one. Rublev is also a player who is prone to breaking when pushed to the limits and I feel like Vesely will be good enough to do that.

I said yesterday that I will skip the final but I placed +5.5 handicap on Vesely in the end.

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Quote from: aoluain on February 25, 2022, 03:06:15 PM

Quote from: rdbase on February 25, 2022, 02:39:47 PM

Just amazing match witnessed with Veselý winning it after 3 tie-breakers.
He will meet Rublev in the finals of the Dubai Open tomorrow.
It was just announced so quickly there aren't any markets available yet.

Yes fantastic win by Vesely, that was a tough match for him today. I saw the 3rd
set and he looked exhausted and I have never seen anyone sweat so much.
This is a magical story for Vesely to get to this final, his after match interview
was interesting, he said he was feeling down prior to this tournament. Hopefully
we will see more of him as the year progresses.

Obviously another tough match scheduled for him in the final against Rublev,
Can he find one more win? he is certainly capable of beating Rublev if he
brings this A game again.

After saying that, do you think Jiri has enough in the gas tank to face Rublev for the finals later on today?
Usually tennis players who have played such a grueling match like he did yesterday would need some time to recover and it will be less than a full 24 hours since that match and this one.

For the Mexican open both favorites lost.
Nadal won & Norrie doing his with both ended in straight sets.
But even with the loss Medvedev will become world number 1 since Djokovic got sent out of the Dubai Open before reaching the finals.
Was thinking why didn't Novak play in this tournament instead?

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Latest tennis news:

''Mexican Open: Rafael Nadal beats Daniil Medvedev & meets Cameron Norrie in Acapulco final''
''Rafael Nadal continued his stunning start to 2022 by beating incoming world number one Daniil Medvedev to set up a Mexican Open final against Britain's Cameron Norrie.''

After not playing for a long time due to injury, Nadal has really started a fantastic 2022 and it seems that he will be the main favorite at the GS in France, especially if Djokovic will not be able to play again due to vaccination rules

Source: https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/60528500

''
Emma Raducanu has pulled out of next week's WTA event in Monterrey after injury forced her to retire from a three-and-a-half-hour match in Guadalajara this week.''
''The US Open champion, 19, described it as a "small left leg injury" and said she has postponed her return in order to recover as well as possible.''

After winning the GS tournament last year, there were high expectations from Raducano, but for now she has not repeated those results. What can we expect from her in the future?

Source: https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/60530901

Novak Djokovic to lose number one ranking to Daniil Medvedev after defeat in Dubai

And so history happened. Have we got a new great tennis champion?

Source: https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/60512757

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Quote from: buwaytress on February 26, 2022, 03:38:16 AM

~snip

Quote from: mv1986 on February 25, 2022, 04:59:54 PM

Would he actually be the oldest player who ever made it back to #1 at that age?

Think it's Medvedev's regardless of what happens in the final, have to admit I don't know how the rankings exactly work (not a super tennis person) but the news said something in that manner as soon as Djoko lost.

yeah, nevertheless Medvedev will be first from Monday
but Nadal win could bring him confidence that he can be no.1 this season as well, although he cannot get new points after Acapulco, since he already won it last year, but he can get more points on clay, whereas he won just Rome last season, if I am not wrong

Djokovic will lose points from winning Dubai last season, and that should be enough for Medvedev to get on top

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Man, Nadal! I cannot believe it's now twice I opted for someone else as my tourney winner, ignoring Nadal as the outsider. Now he's gotten over the most difficult opponent (a bit easier this time around even though it should have been harder!) and is set for another win.

Worse, it's twice in a row I go for Tsitsi and he falls at the same hurdle.

Quote from: mv1986 on February 25, 2022, 04:59:54 PM

Would he actually be the oldest player who ever made it back to #1 at that age?

Think it's Medvedev's regardless of what happens in the final, have to admit I don't know how the rankings exactly work (not a super tennis person) but the news said something in that manner as soon as Djoko lost.

But this Norrie guy though, why haven't I really paid any attention to him haha. Hands up I didn't even hear much of him until very recently and he's not even very young.

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I don't know whether Djokovic likes Nadal or not. I guess they are more than rivals and now Djokovic needs Nadal to win against Medvedev or otherwise he is going to claim the number 1 rank of the ATP list. It is going to be a close game I would say. Nadal would also love to once more make it to the top. Would he actually be the oldest player who ever made it back to #1 at that age?

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Quote from: Joca97 on February 25, 2022, 03:32:02 PM

Vesely continues to surprise in this tournament. I was thinking it was just a fluke but he won in an intense match against Shapovalov and he might even win this tournament. But Rublev is on a really good level currently with how he is playing it will be intresting really

Match against Ćilić could have been characterized as fluke but already win against Bautista was enough to show that he found a good patch of form. If somebody was skeptical his win against Djokovic should have been enough to ease the fears. Had him again today as 3.5 handicap for high stake and as a win for low stake.

To be fair I would back him even harder if he was playing against counter puncher, but players like Shapovalov and Rublev have enough power to break him down. He also looked a bit tired today. I believe he did not have more then one win in any tournament in the whole last year, could be too much to overcome tomorrow so I will skip betting on the final.

Topic: Tennis League All Thread - page 299. (Read 202198 times)