Topic: 🏈🏈 The Essential NFL Thread 🏈🏈 - new poll every week - page 8. (Read 8887 times)

Could be... Anything's possible at this point. Its more like asking if Derek Henry can win the Super Bowl for the Titans. At 6'3 247 lbs he's got to be one of the biggest RBs in the league (if not the biggest).

Though I don't detract from Tannehill's apparent renaissance. He was Rookie of the Year, after all, in 2012. Perhaps he just didn't have the right kind of team behind him to really shine, until this year. Out of the 7 years he's played, he had his highest % completions and longest average passes this season.

I wouldn't mind seeing a Titans/Niners Super Bowl. Though I think I'd still have to root for the Niners.

Out of all our predictions, ralle14 was the closest to calling all 4:


I'm going to miss this thread when the season's over. Gonna have to still crank out 5 posts a week in the gambling section somehow without it. 

Another wild weekend of NFL playoff football.  How the Texans blew that 24 point lead I'll never understand.  How you call a fake punt at that point in the game is beyond me.  Anyways it sets up some great matchups in the Conference Finals:



Can the Titans (+750) be the dark horse to win the Super Bowl?

It will be hard not to be behind Derrick Henry and the Titans after beating the Patriots and the Ravens.

@wheelz1200. We might witness another Washington Nationals underdog story for the NFL hehehe.

Two folks voted for the Vikings, I voted for the 9ers (duh,) sorry if you guys had money on the line.  Should have known better by now.
One person took the Titans, no one took the Ravens, turned out to be the only upset of the weekend.
No one voted for the Chiefs to cover the spread, so they doubled it.
But four of you poor souls put your trust in the Seagulls?  FFS!

Now, don't let me stop you from underestimating the 9ers yet again.  I think they feed off of it.  Please by all means pick the Packers to cover the spread next week.  Best of luck to you, lol!   

Packers didn't show anything out of this world in the first half, but at least they have a formidable run game with Jones which i think is the biggest difference so far. Seahawks have a measly 30 something rush yards most of it Wilson scrambling. As i said earlier, no run game - no chance!

First Green Bay TD was inches short imo.

The Packers are running away with this one.  Somehow I don't see Seattle recovering the way the Chiefs did this afternoon.  Seattle has been strong this year, but it's almost like they've been winning due to Wilson's shear will.  Out of the 11 games they've won this year only one has been decisive.  The rest came by a single possession.  They're net points for the 16 regular season games; only 7!  It was just a matter of time before they imploded, and it looks like it's happening on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.

I know there's still a whole half to play, but I'm calling this one, boys.  Packers at 49ers next weekend, it's going to look like the playoff games of the 90's.  Except no Steve Young, Brett Favre, or Candle Stick Park.

When I saw this tweet by Joe Montana I couldn't help but laugh, but I think his prediction is starting to look like the most probable:

W0w, I missed the first Quarter came in the door and it was 24-7 what a second quarter, 24-28 at the half!



I think when the fix is in its for sites like fandual and draft kings and its knowing ahead of time players like Hill (saints) will put up multiple touchdowns. Totally blind siding everyone except those in the know. I'd like to see where the money went on those type games.

Disagree

Vegas is just offering odds what they think is reasonable or what they expect the punters to do - with sometimes giving fishy lines, traps and putting all the juice on one side, if they have some "feeling". Bookmakers want to have a balanced book, so they don't have to care about the outcome. If they don't have a balanced book pre-match they will adjust the lines/odds to get some action on one side. But I think they have no clue how any given game will end - just like us - unless they fixed it themselves; what I believe happens not that often in NFL, at least not for ML.

It's always the market (i.e. the punters) that make the odds. You can try to put large stakes in early markets, you won't succeed. The bookmakers put up some odds with low limits to check out how their lines are. Some sharps will already place some bets for low stakes and the bookmaker gets value valuable information for few money and adjust their lines accordingly. As time goes by, the limits go up as the odds mature and the bookmakers have a better idea of where they stand. Shortly before kick-off you can place large amounts then, because bookmakers are sure, they are not giving away any value. It's a cat and mouse game.

There was an article back in the days how Pinnacle is balancing their book. For a long time they had the lowest edge of all books and I always wondered, how they can balance their book with such small margins. But they a) were always very good at giving good initial odds, b) have a lot of experience in what they are doing and c) let their odds getting "tested" first by the market by offering very low limits in the beginning. And they have never been frontrunners in publishing their odds, which means there was already a somewhat matured market when they published their odds.

Its not the market mate, its Vegas. They know the outcome of this match and they don't want to offer too much for the Chiefs to win as that's most likely the outcome of the match. Its been a while since we have seen a over in a match so could today have both games go over.

I am very ambivalent about that fake punt from the Texans. In general I like when coaches are doing some trick plays and this one was very unexpected, so could have worked. But there was really no urgency to try something like that. And there was more to lose than to gain. If it worked, you would have killed some momentum from the Chiefs, but the momentum you gave them with not converting, is way bigger. Lets see, if Houston can somehow recover.

The inplay odds for the Texans were still pretty high (1,25-ish iirc) despite leading 24-0; so the market still had a of faith in a comeback of the Chiefs. Half-time can't come soon enough for the Texans now.

My under bet looks splendid

Not to mention those people chasing from yesterday's loss from the Ravens. Earlier i'm somewhat convinced that the Texans and their spread already win here but Chiefs still fighting back slowly cutting the lead. It would be interesting to see two teams in the same division meet in the conference match.  

I like Mariota also, he was playing at UofO a few years before my daughter started studying there.  He is still a big deal at the school.

That was quite an upset, it was embarrassing to watch all those mistakes by Baltimore.  Not to take anything away from Tennessee, they played a great game, and took advantage of their opportunities.  But I think it's fair to say that the game wasn't so much won by Tennessee as much as it was lost by Baltimore.



 



Crazy start.  Again, like Baltimore, the Chiefs look committed to beating themselves.  They just scored in that last drive.  Maybe they've gotten the butterflies out, and they'll make it a game.  Still plenty of football left, and it would be unwise to count them out.


Edit:
Holy Chiefs, Batman!  Three touchdowns in three and a half minutes, yeah, that's one way to make a game of it. 

©Google

Photoshop or nah?  

Chiefs look awful and out of sync, dropping passes like crazy, blowing coverages on defense, blocked punt recovered for a touchdown, digging a hole i'm not sure they can get out of in the second half. I'm telling you, bookies are having the best weekend ever as people tend to bet on the favorites to win, esp those with heavy pockets.

edit; 7-24

Going with the Seahawks and the Chiefs' to cover their spreads. Houston winning against Buffalo on overtime with a field goal made me think Chiefs should win but the spread sitting below 10 convinced me to take it. I expect their offense will just steamroll in until the Texans couldn't keep up.  

Riding the Seahawks' away train, prefer them over the Packers because the spread feels like an extra cushion knowing Seahawks doesn't need any home advantage.



Edit : Wow, wasn't expecting Chiefs to be down by three touchdowns this early. The spread looking dead already lol.

Henry completely slapping the Ravens defense including Earl Thomas who ran his mouth nonstop for the entirety of the regular season. Feels good. I got the Chiefs and Packers moving onward. Don't see Wilson being able to beat Rodgers and I think Mahomes will carry his offense too.

I had a feeling that the Titans will come out and play well but I didn't expect them to play that well. That is why I took them to cover the +10 which was an easy win in the end. I'm liking the Packers and of course the Chiefs as I have both these teams going to the SB after I lost my Saints SB bet.

Damn, quite an upset there. I have to admit I barely paid attention to Tennessee all season. I used to root for them when Mariota was starting QB, as he is a Hawaii guy, but didn't watch a single game of theirs this season.

SF wins no problem -- wasn't sure they'd cover but they certainly did. I only just woke up, caught the last 2 minutes of the Titans/Ravens game. Will be watching some highlights this morning, and rooting for the Seahawks tomorrow.

This game seems to be over imo even though there's still one quarter left the Titans should be able to hold the Ravens off from scoring three touchdowns.

The Titans' defense is so good forcing turnovers, stopping 4th downs, limiting them to field goal and wasn't expecting the Ravens to be at their worst. Also another 2-0 for me hoping to get at least one tomorrow.  

Holy shit 27 -6 I think they might do it!

That would be the Cinderella story and would get alot of peops on the Henry bandwagon. But afa I'm concerned its a great team effort not just the running game, Tannerhill has looked excellent with a decent line.