The 9ers are going to take this thing, not because the Chiefs suck, not because Mahomes isn't going to make it hard, but the 49ers are the more balanced team. Bear with me here: Statistics lie, there's no doubt. They don't tell the whole story, show the whole picture, or take all intangibles into account. But they do tell a story of their own, one of consistency and repeatability.
So, here we go, 2019 regular season stats:
Passing offence, yards per game, touchdowns:
#5. Chiefs; 281.1 y/g, 30 touchdowns.
#13. 49ers; 237.0 y/g, 28 touchdowns.
Rushing offence, yards per game:
#2. 49ers; 144.1 y/g, 23 touchdowns.
#23. Chiefs; 98.1 y/g, 16 touchdowns.
Total offence, yards per game:
#4. 49ers; 381.1
#6. Chiefs; 379.2
Total offence, points per game:
#2. 49ers; 29.9
#5. Chiefs; 28.2
Okay, now we can see that the Chiefs have a pass-heavy offensive scheme, and they're are in #23 in rushing yards per game. The 9ers on the other hand show a penchant for running the ball. As they demonstrated in week 14 against the saints, they can throw the ball too, but they certainly don't rely on it. Despite the apparent discrepancy in passing offence the 9ers have scored more points per game.
Let's look at defense:
Pass defense, yard allowed:
#1. 49ers; 169.2 y/g
#8. Chiefs; 221.4 y/g
Run defense, yards allowed:
#17. 49ers; 112.6 y/g
#26. Chiefs; 128.2 y/g
Total defense, yards allowed:
#2. 49ers; 281.8
#17. Chiefs; 349.6
Points allowed
#7. Chiefs; 19.2
#8. 49ers; 19.4
By looking at the stats above one can quickly discern that the 9ers lead in 3 of the four offensive stats, and 3 of the four defensive stats. It also becomes apparent the Chiefs are really good at passing the ball, while the 9ers are THE BEST at stopping the passing game. But one needs to ask the obvious question; what can the Chiefs do if the 9ers are successful at stopping Mahomes?
The 49ers are a balanced team. They might not be the best in all categories, but they certainly "score" as a better team on paper. Again, the stats don't express the intangible things that can affect a game, like who wants it more, who's rested and healthy, who is focused on the game, and who's going to execute without mistakes.
Ironically, while I was compiling the stats above, I couldn't help but notice the similarities between the 49ers' numbers and those of the Ravens. Well, we all know what happened to the ravens, so by no means am I under any illusions as to how this could go. However, I'm pretty confident 49ers can win this thing if they don't beat themselves... Like the Ravens did.
