Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 27. (Read 13382 times)

Yesterday I listened to an interview with the famous financier Andrey Movchan. 

He currently lives in London, UK.  The topic of the interview is the fighting in Ukraine.... 

According to Andrei Movchan, the Russian authorities have a very big advantage in these hostilities.  This advantage lies in the fact that the Russian authorities can control the intensity of the military conflict.  They can escalate the situation, or, on the contrary, they can deliberately drag out hostilities, as a result, everything will result in a very protracted positional war. 

I am afraid of my own forecasts, - Andrey Movchan said, - but the hostilities can drag on for a very long time, for example, for 10 years.  At the same time, the situation in Russia will gradually worsen, the standard of living of the population will fall, technological and cultural degradation will increase, people will die a violent death. 

Most experts (supporting Russia or Ukraine) believe that the hostilities will end in the near future (with the victory of one side or another).  But there is also an alternative view. 

And if this is true, then this means huge disasters for the Ukrainian people, for the Russian people and for the rest of the world.

The war is taking place on the territory of Ukraine and Ukrainians are fighting with Russia. For Ukraine, the stakes in this war are too high - freedom and independence, so they do not intend to give in to the Putin regime, despite the fact that Ukraine will have to pay a big price. On the other hand, Putin is now also fighting for his existence, because Russia itself will not forgive him for defeat in the war. Therefore, the war goes to the depletion of resources to continue it. In Russia, there is already a problem in almost everything: armored vehicles, artillery ammunition, missiles, even in conventional small arms and trained soldiers. But if Russia can still use the masses for the war with Ukraine, then it can no longer provide them with everything they need. The issue with the officers is also extremely acute, since almost the entire professional army of Russia, which invaded in February, has already perished on the territory of Ukraine.

Of course, Ukraine itself would not have stood against Russia with its colossal resources. But to say that this is a war between the United States and its NATO allies, on the one hand, and Russia, on the other, is possible only in terms of material resources. Otherwise, Russians are significantly inferior to the motivation and professionalism of Ukrainians.

It is clear that after this war there will still be no more in the world. Russia will lose its former influence on the world stage.

This is a war between the US and Russia, not between Russia and Ukraine, so it is almost impossible to expect either of these countries to yield first to sit at the negotiating table. The US will never stop aid and agree to end the war unless Russia actually defeats the Volodymyr Zelensky regime. But to do that for Russia is also a problem because it alone is against 29 countries, not just one.

Although the war is causing chaos in the world, the United States is the biggest beneficiary, so it will not be easy for them to agree to a cessation of hostilities.

I don't think that any of the GOP politicians have refused to support Ukraine. But then, they are against handing out hundreds of billions of USD worth of tax payer money to Zelensky without any audit or accountability, especially at a time when the American tax payers are grappling with sky high inflation. The Democrats are using the Ukraine war as an opportunity to swindle funds and whenever someone questions them they are countering them with false allegations of bias towards Russia. Only a small fraction of the funds delivered actually reaches the frontline.

I doubt that US is going to let this war end anytime soon. The plan was always to recreate what happened to NATO over the past 20 years for Russia in Ukraine. All sides are predicting a very dire 2023 because of this specially since we haven't seen any signs of deescalation from neither US nor Russia.

Republicans SHOULD support Ukraine, especially when it's in everyone's interests to help protect a country's sovereignity. If Russia wins the war, it will be a huge blow towards world democracy. I'm pretty sure the US won't let that happen anytime soon. As you've said before, Republicans stated they won't support Ukraine just to attract voters. But they will just agree with the Democrats in the end, because of the reasons mentioned earlier.

I'm hoping the war ends by 2023, for things to get back to normal. With the world at peace, economic prosperity can be achieved. China, Russia  and other world countries should work together for the benefit of all. Only then, inflation will be put down to rest for good. Who knows what the future holds for all of us? Just my thoughts

According to the international media, and according to indicators and statistics, Europe has actually succeeded in overcoming the Russian gas crisis, while making sure to establish more liquefied gas stations in preparation for winter in the coming years.
As long as there is a crisis between the two sides, Europe must take into account that it should not count on Russia after today. And it must look for alternatives to gas, not only at the level of supply, but also in alternative solutions capable of replacing the gas and thus reducing the demand for it.

For Ukraine, the Novgorod Republic is just an additional example of what Muscovy (Russia) really was. The Novgorod Republic was destroyed by the same Muscovy!
Brief description of what is happening. Pay attention to the extreme cruelty and sadism!

The historian Karamzin writes: “A terrible devastation began. On the one hand, the Moscow governor Kholmsky and the army of the Grand Duke, on the other hand, the Pskovites (allies of Moscow - in 1510 they will also be conquered by it), having entered the land of Novgorod, exterminated everything with fire and sword. Smoke, flames, bloody rivers, moaning and wailing from east to west rushed to the shores of Lake Ilmen. The Muscovites showed a frenzy beyond description. There was no mercy for poor farmers or women. With the wild cruelty characteristic of the then age, the voivode Kholmsky, having captured Novgorod captives, ordered to cut off their noses and lips and send them, distorted, to Novgorod.


Regarding history - without knowing the past it is impossible to build the future!

There was also the Novgorod Republic.  Neither Russia nor Ukraine like to remember her. 

Russia does not like to remember the Novgorod Republic, because it was a free and democratic state of the Western European type.  Ukraine does not like to remember the Novgorod Republic, because geographically it was very far from Kyiv ....

I would generally forbid the study of history. 

For example, Girkin studied the 19th century, the history of the Civil War in the Russian Empire.  And then he imagined himself a tsarist officer and decided that his historical mission was the restoration of the Russian Empire within the borders before 1918. 

From the study of history alone troubles. 

It seems to me that we should study the Future, not the Past.

Very much misleading!
To begin with: "Muscovy" or "Moscow Khaganate of the Great Khanate" is precisely this real name of Russia ("Russia" is an absolutely artificially invented word, and "far-fetched"). The word Russia is an attempt to ascribe to itself the name of a real Slavic state, with its center (capital) in the city... Kyiv. And this state was called RUS (in Slavic Pycь). Unfortunately, in English these words were erroneously combined. For understanding, I quote the spelling of Rus' and RUSSIA, as they sound correctly: Pycь and Poccия.
Rights have nothing in common? And the "official" explanation of "renaming Muscovy to Russia - that's what RUS is called in .... ancient Greek" ))

Well, and further - for many centuries, Muscovy, trying to steal and ascribe to itself the status of a Slavic state, and allegedly "the birthplace of all Orthodox Slavs", is trying to destroy Rus' / Ukraine, its history, language, traditions, culture ...
I’ll just give a “short” list of Muscovy’s crimes, only against the Ukrainian language, you read it and decide how “brotherly, friendly peoples” we are, as Muscovy is trying to give out ...

https://cerkva.kharkov.ua/novini/arkhiv/267.html (translated by google translate)

And then there are 5 centuries of seizure of the territories of Ukraine, forced "union", mass and targeted destruction of the population, on a national basis. Until 2014, Muscovy/Russia deliberately destroyed the Ukrainian ethnic group. Since 2014, they began to destroy ALL citizens of Ukraine, including ethnic Russians living in Ukraine. There is also a lot of this historical information in open sources.

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Another, and expectedly unsuccessful attempt to distort reality. I just can’t understand why you are doing this, if it’s extremely easy to find out the truth and check the falsity of your words!?
Let me explain, of course! I'm not used to throwing words to the wind, I confirm my words
1. The transfer of nuclear weapons by Ukraine was the result of a tripartite agreement. The problem was that for Ukraine after the collapse of the USSR, it was very expensive and difficult (financially and from a security point of view) to maintain the THIRD arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world. Considering not the best currents that took place at that time in the former republics, there was a real risk of illegal and uncontrolled entry of nuclear weapons into third parties, into countries with an inadequate regime, frankly terrorist such as North Korea, Iran, and other international terrorist organizations.
Therefore, Ukraine decided to transfer all its nuclear weapons, not to the West, but to Russia. In exchange for the obligations of the three participants (Russia, the United States, Britain) - to guarantee the stability and security of Ukraine's borders. By the way, this deal was primarily beneficial for Russia - this is an increase in the strategic potential, and ... US funding for a program to ensure the safety of nuclear weapons!
Now we can see very well how deceitful and vile Russia turned out to be, and how pointless any agreements with it are. And the United States and Britain - fulfilling their obligations, are now helping us to destroy this vile terrorist army of Russia

Now systems have begun to appear in our country that already have a range of up to 800 km (hello to the Russian terrorist aviation airfield Engelsk, and "the S-400 air defense system, which has no analogue" ) Other systems with a longer range will soon appear!

2. In Ukraine, the politician is the same independent as in other normal countries. Although I'm not a fan of it. Although I agree that some Ukrainian aligarhic groups are behind him. But it's better than a Russian satrap, a crazy maniac, a kleptomaniac and a sadist who lives only to destroy and not to create. Or are you mentally closer to the Russian leader?

Preventing wars is actually easier than you think. All it takes is independent politicians and a strong independent military.
- Imagine for a second a scenario where Ukraine owned missiles that could hit Moscow (that is mid-range missiles with 450 km to 700 km range) or if they hadn't been fooled by the West to disarm themselves and give up 17000 nuclear warheads. Russia would have never dared attack Ukraine.
- Imagine a scenario where Ukraine had an independent politician who cared about his own country instead of playing others' games trying to join NATO or become a US colony. Russia would have never had any excuse to invade Ukraine.

Where there is war, there is loss. Recovery after war takes time. War doesn't just affect the two countries at war. Other countries will also be relatively affected.

“Russia has stopped releasing some economic data, but it also faces a deep recession, while the U.S. doesn’t appear to be headed for a recession right now, but growth is slowing and consumers are pessimistic.”

A catastrophe is when a girl from Kharkov, whom you met and had sex with, crying screams into your phone - when will Russia come and free us?  We don't want to go to Banderstadt! 

At the same time, the next day her mood changes, and she says something completely different....

When your best friend swears at you - from Kyiv.  He says that in the Donbass and in the Crimea there are more stupid fools (cotton wool) than in Russia. 

The Demon of Death Thanatos takes possession of the souls of people....  People start saying terrible things. 

And then the Demon Thanatos takes possession of the souls of those who have the opportunity to send troops into battle. 

This is what I call a disaster. 

I hate wars, but I don't know how to prevent them.  They are like a deadly virus from which there is no escape.

I do not believe that Europe will get rid of its addiction to Russian gas. With the US selling LNG at exorbitant prices and solidarity among the countries in the bloc, the EU has been fortunate to have enough gas this winter. But look at their current economy, just to save gas this winter they have had to shut down a bunch of industries and as a result, cause an economic crisis in the bloc. EU inflation is at a record high and shows no sign of stopping. If this continues, the old continent will soon become a dead continent.

What catastrophe and disaster are you talking about? Things and events should be called by their proper names. In 2014, the Russians, taking advantage of the so-called "friendship" with Ukraine, as well as the fact that part of the territory of Ukraine was leased by the Russian Black Sea Fleet, simply went out with weapons and armored vehicles outside the leased territory provided to them and treacherously seized the Crimean peninsula. Until that time, Russia had been planning to seize Ukraine since the 2000s. Also after that, Russia already openly invaded the Donetsk and Lugansk regions with the help of several battalion tactical groups and destroyed part of the then still weak Armed Forces of Ukraine. Both catastrophe and misfortune were brought to Ukraine by the Russian invaders, who are still in Ukraine for the ninth year and are killing civilians in Ukraine. This is such a disaster and trouble.

The current attack by Russia has almost forever put an end to good neighborly relations between Ukraine and Russia. The bestial cruelty of Russian soldiers to civilians in Ukraine will be remembered by many generations of Ukrainians.

Yes, until 2013, Russians and Ukrainians were friends, created families, went to visit each other.  

Nothing foreshadowed trouble.  Russia and Ukraine had a joint gas business - Russia was a gas supplier, and Ukraine provided its transit to European countries.  Ukrainians and Russians usually communicated in Russian.  

When the catastrophe happened, the Russians and Ukrainians, who were friends with each other, could not prevent it.  They understood that trouble had come, but did not know what to do.  And then people began to die en masse...

Modern Russian youth do not welcome military operations, but they never went to peaceful Ukraine and did not communicate with its inhabitants.  Therefore, the attitude of many young Russians towards Ukrainians is rather indifferent.  For them, they are citizens of some foreign country.  But many cried on February 24th.  Many have left the country.

We saw how Europe united with the help of its allies to face the shortage of Russian gas, and the winter passes safely.  But is it really possible for the situation to continue like this and for Europe to completely abandon Russian gas?  
In fact, this has become a possible hypothesis that Putin may have realized as well.

Yes, I have never lived there but not everything we see in films is true some are fabricated at some point to create an interesting scene in the film and for the books, it's the honesty of the author that will make me believe because we are in a world where people create FUD and lies for selfish purpose.

I know although I have not lived or been there before but with the little, I know the major reason for their slave mentality is the way the country is governed and the cabal has eyes and ears everywhere anyone that tries anything that has to do with freedom, and a human right not to talk about vote out the country system of governments will be executed we see what's happening in Iran.

If Russia was very afraid of NATO expansion at its borders and because of this attacked Ukraine, because it was afraid of her joining this alliance, then condolences should be expressed to Russia. Because now, after the almost completed entry into NATO of Sweden and Finland, after Russia's attack on Ukraine, Russia's immediate borders with NATO countries have expanded significantly. There is also no doubt that in the shortest time after the end of the war with the victory of Ukraine, it will also become a member of NATO and now, during the war, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are being rapidly rearmed according to NATO standards. Already, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the strongest army in Europe and have invaluable experience in waging war using NATO weapons and its standards.

However, the real goal of Russia's attack on Ukraine, and now its military-political leadership of Russia no longer hides this, is the seizure of the territory of Ukraine, the appropriation of its resources, as well as the history of Ukraine as an integral part of the history of the Russian Federation. All other declared goals of the attack, which change to this day, are justifications for military aggression.

Volodymyr Zelensky as the President of Ukraine is now supported by over 90 percent of Ukrainians, so it’s not worth saying that he is a puppet in the hands of other states. This is one of the fakes of Russia, which is waging an information war against Ukraine and seeks to deprive Ukraine of the support of the West and the United States.

Russia - America - China - India they like remaining to be in war. After some time they fell like showing their power to the world and disaster like Afghanistan and Ukraine happen . . Last year the region was in trouble due to Afghan war and this year it is Ukraine war.
FOr how long they will be doing this - the world has have enough!