Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 30. (Read 13245 times)

If you watch the price of oil for the period from February 2022 to today, and in parallel on the timeline put aside the "antics" of Russia, you will notice that jumps (price increases) have an absolute correlation with such events. This means that the price of oil and gas, or rather its growth, is an absolutely controllable process, controlled by a targeted negative impact on the market by one player. Those. there are no objective reasons for such changes in prices, or they are "imperceptible" against the background of targeted sabotage of the market.
It was the price of oil and gas that led to a chain reaction in the global economy, and negative consequences.
Accordingly, the logical conclusion is the stabilization of the hydrocarbon market, which, unfortunately, negatively affects the entire world economy, will occur and the negative impact will weaken, in proportion to the weakening of the country by the world terrorist (both military and economic). As we are now seeing, literally 6 months of real sanctions begin to destroy the economy of this country. Yes, a complete collapse will not happen tomorrow, but 2023 will destroy it very strongly (and possibly critically). Accordingly, the "tsunami" of the gas crisis in the EU will subside, the rest of the countries will find alternative suppliers, and the "taboo" on Russian oil will begin to operate. Oil and gas for one thing will be sold for a penny (actually at an ultra-low price) to "Russia's friends" China and India, who will also resell it at a not very high price to the external market. As a result, the situation will calm down... I predict 2023, the second half/autumn will show a noticeable improvement in the situation in the global economy.

Today Urals is traded on the market, the spot market, already below the limit price set by the EU These are only the first days of restrictions and the mechanism for restricting the sale of oil from Russia has not yet been launched....

The impact of the ukraine vs russia war is certainly felt for both countries and can extend to countries that are directly related to the economy, as we know that russia is a large country that produces many needed products such as oil, gas, industrial raw materials and so on.

1. If Russia's military is not second in the world, who will replace that position of Russia? The United States?
2,3. No economy can stabilize with tens of thousands of such sanctions, with what Russia has been doing and is considered too successful. If one of the EU countries is in the same situation as Russia, I don't think they will last 2 months, not 10 months like Russia did, and Russia has not stopped.
4,5. All sanctions are working, but the effect is negligible and not enough to stop Russia, and it is also hitting those who put the sanctions in place. Those who put in place sanctions are suffering more than Russia.

Of course ! This speaks volumes!
1. the Russian army is by no means "the second in the world"
2. The Russian economy is not stable, shaky, and resource-rich. Moreover, with the idiotic moves of the leadership of Russia in relation to the market for these resources
3. The economy is vulnerable, and the costs of supporting the "short victorious special operation" turned out to be unbearable for the economy approved "on paper"
4. Sanctions work, and they work very hard. This is only the sixth month since more or less serious sanctions have been introduced.
5. Ahead of new sanctions and protective measures to reduce the financing of international terrorism that Russia arranged

I missed that news, I didn't watch this news recently, and what I found is the US has decided to give Ukraine Patriotic anti-aircraft missile system, and this will make the war bad worse.
Indeed, war shows no sign of abating, it's just that we've gotten used to it and don't care much about it anymore.
Regarding the drop in oil prices, I think this is only temporary and things will get worse when Russia and OPEC simultaneously cut oil production and the Chinese economy reopens.

Don't confuse bubbles bursting with the conflict calming down. It is quite the opposite, the conflict is getting worse every day. Just recently US gave Ukraine the permission to attack Russian soil and Russia armed its nuclear missiles that could reach both US and Europe.

Basically the world got used to this war which may be why you think it has calmed down; the 24/7 coverage during the first days is now a barely mentioned thing that people specially in EU react to as "what else is new" considering all the economical problems they have themselves.

The OPEC is not happy with the current levels of crude. They want prices in the $100-$120 range. Now it is trading at $80-$82 per barrel, at a few days back Brent crude went down to almost $75 per barrel. Now this doesn't mean that all the countries are paying for their crude at this rate. Europeans are paying $5 to $10 extra per barrel, as they are purchasing their oil at a premium from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. India and China on the other hand are getting their oil at a discount, as most of it is sourced from Russia, Iraq and Iran. Urals is trading at around $45-$50 per barrel right now. Even after adding the inflated freight charges (~$19 per barrel), the total cost comes to around $65-$70 per barrel.

The ban that was placed on Russia will affect their economy, but Putin doesn't seem to be concerned about that. It's true that when it comes to war, it has a significant impact on both the economy and social lives of people as well as the environment. When the war started, talking about the casualties and lives lost was just heartbreaking. Sometimes I wonder what can't be resolved instead of going to war. I pray we can all stay in peace but I know is going to be difficult.

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has not subsided, it has passed into another, logical stage, when the Russians can no longer use their favorite “barrage of fire” tactics, when in order to occupy any settlement, it was first completely turned into ruins, and only then did they enter the already lifeless territory, firing 60-80 thousand shells per day. Now the Russian Federation, at best, fires about 20 thousand shells at Ukrainians due to the fact that their number in Russia has already decreased so much that even emergency supplies are being used up.

According to Ukrainian military intelligence, as a result of international sanctions, the possibility of Russian military production of cruise missiles has also been reduced. Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian arms factories have been able to produce only 240 Kh-101 high-precision cruise missiles and about 120 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles, or about 40 new missiles per month. And for one salvo on the energy structure of Ukraine, the invaders will spend about 100 of these missiles, which cost from 400 to 700 million dollars. In Russia, a third of the territory is not supplied with gas, the people live in poverty, but its leadership allows itself, in order to intimidate the citizens of Ukraine, to spend such funds that have no military significance and do not directly affect the country's defense capability.

Russia is gradually fizzling out militarily. Now it advances only in the east in the region of the city of Bakhmut and every day loses about 350-500 of its soldiers there in useless continuous attacks. On all sectors of other fronts, she went on the defensive due to the loss of her combat capability.

This process has already begun. Yes, for some reason in Russia they decided that sanctions are like a toggle switch - you pressed it and the light went out No, sanctions are something that slowly but surely destroys, IRREVERSIBLE, entire sectors of the economy. Already at the very beginning, the Ministry of Finance of Russia squealed that the situation was critical. Now, after the oil embargo, and the loss of the EU oil and gas market, Russia will collapse about a third of the revenue side of the budget. No, not 2%, not 5%, but up to 30%. I think you do not need to explain what such a failure means. at the same time, the "smartest president" sharply redraws the country's budget, despite the fact that, in his own words, "everything is going according to plan, there is no reason to worry, the Russian economy is as strong as ever" ))
You may have already heard that in the budget of the Russian Federation, for 23 years, every three rubles out of 10 go to law enforcement agencies, and every 2.5 rubles out of 10 are generally classified!
And this is all at the expense of the economy, population, medicine, education, ....

Yes, the main reason for the drop in oil prices is the drop in demand from China, the war showing no signs of abating, or any talks to end the war mentioned. Things are only slowing down a bit because winter is causing a lot of difficulties for both sides.
But with China hinting that it will reopen its economy, this should lead to an early recovery in oil prices, and with OPEC and Russia production cuts pushing us into a crisis energy in the near future and the EU's ceiling on Russian oil prices will be counterproductive.

Crude oil prices have come down from $120-$130 per barrel to around $75-$80 per barrel now. But this has nothing to do with the war. Demand is down due to decreased consumption in China and due to fears of recession. And Russian crude is trading at a heavy discount to the benchmark Brent crude. As a result some of the other Asian producers (such as Iraq) were forced to reduce the price of their crude. However, crude from Saudi and UAE is trading at a premium to the benchmark, since they are mostly exporting to the European Union.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a significant impact on the economy of our country. I remember when the conflict between these two countries just started, the price of gasoline increased a lot until the highest level reached was more than 2$ per liter.

But it's a good thing now that it has dropped to around 1$-1.2$ per liter, it's good that the conflict between these two countries has calmed down because they are not helping the economy of the countries that surround them in the  world actually.

The impact that was immediately felt was gas supply to Europe, as we knew that Russia was a gas supply to many European countries, when there was a war conflict, it certainly made a lot of things, namely the cost of gas to be expensive, making Russia decide on the supply of a country that was late in paying.

a Part from this war - there are so many problems the whole world is going on
The main crisis is petrol and gas. However we were never purchasing oil for Russia but still my country is facing so much problem.
I am. not sure when this is going to end.

Russia is bound to lose the economic war. European countries that rely on it for energy sources like coal, oil, etc. are looking for alternatives from other countries already. Ukraine is receiving all the support it can get from the democratic west while Russia is receiving favors from China if I am not mistaken. China is a formidable foe and a great support at that, but numbers are the name of the game. I just hope this doesn't escalate anymore into anything worse, a war of global scale is slowly tipping towards us and it's not gonna look good for everyone involved. If a war happens the economy will be the least of our worries as we make sure we don't die of bullets, nukes, or starvation while these superpowers test their toys out.

Russia will soon face a real financial collapse worth billions of dollars, associated with a complete embargo on the export of petroleum products to Europe. The oil ceiling is already "mowing down" Russian revenues, but the worst is yet to come for Russia.
So far, Russia is able to sell any volumes of oil at a discount to India and China, but oil products, for which Europe will close its market in February, Moscow will not be able to sell to Asia. The Chinese and Indians have their own large oil refining capacities, so they do not need oil products from the Russian Federation. They can only buy crude oil, and then at a deep discount.

The only way out for Moscow is to cut production and mothball wells, some of them permanently. Thus Russia will lose billions of dollars.

And so, on December 7, 2022, the terrorist, who said yesterday that "the special operation is going according to plan and the previously planned schedule," gives out - "Putin announced problems at the front and urged to prepare for a long war" ))

... And on December 8, the pot price of Urals oil fell to $54 per barrel. This is the "buy here and now" price. Discount on contracts - 30-40%. The discount on the "gray oil" that China and India buy out is even greater. The price of oil in the budget is 70+ dollars per barrel

I do not think that all these measures are taken without clear reasons and goals. Perhaps the increase in military spending reflects the extent of Russia's failure in confronting a small country militarily like Ukraine, but it confirms the continuation of the military operation until its goals are achieved. Which seems to have changed with the course of the war and the map of alliances between all the major world powers, not just the direct parties to the conflict. Everyone is currently afraid of the expansion of the war to include other countries, especially those countries that openly supported Ukraine against Russia and several other countries in the Russian crosshairs, most of whom resorted to trying to hide under the umbrella of NATO, which does not really seem able to protect them, given that all the major countries Its constituents avoid entering into a direct confrontation with Russia.

Economic and other successes, the leader of a terrorist organization called "Russia":

December 5, 2022
Putin approved the reduction of spending on the economy and a record increase in funding for the army, police and special services
The president signed the law on the budget, where every third ruble will go to the security forces, and every fourth is classified.

I will decipher: from the entire budget of Russia (which is heading downhill, and from January 2023 it will accelerate the fall), 30% + 25% goes to terrorism! At the same time, according to Russian tradition, 50% of this budget will be plundered!
Those. for the economy, social sphere, education, medicine, pensions, and so on - budgets are being cut (this is the greatness of Russia ) and for the army - it will grow many times, and 25% will go for no clear reason, and 30% for the next technological fakes