Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 29. (Read 13245 times)

There are two possible outcomes, since both the sides have ruled out ceasefire:

Ukrainian defeat: Russia mobilizes even more people, sends in an army of >1 million and conquers half of Ukraine. Probability is low, since the public mood in Russia is against anymore mobilization drives. And with the current armed forces strength (200,000 + 300,000 mobilized reserves), it is not possible for Russia to achieve a quick victory.

Russian defeat: Crude oil prices plummet to 2020 levels (~40 dollars per barrel). Russian budget revenue decreases and it gets impossible for them to continue with the war. The chances of this scenario is also quite low, since OPEC and Biden doesn't want lower oil prices.

Things in Russia are going so "well" that... Citizens of Russia - exclusively for you
The head of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, is proposing to develop recommendations on the "obligatory conversion of bank deposits in physical assets into defense loan bonds."

What is this about? This is about the fact that the deposits of individuals will be FORCED, without the consent of the owners, transferred to some pieces of paper of the state that lost the war, and will soon collapse. Those. the citizens of Russia, simply, silently, out of habit, steal their money! Last money ! And you will not be asked, once again just wiping your feet on you!

You can check it yourself - document number IN-12-16/4 dated December 16, 2022, addressed to Zhdanov A.Yu. (Director of the Financial Recovery Department of the Bank of Russia).

If someone does not find it, I can attach a photo of the document

I can tell you that, no one thought this war would last and become as fierce as it is now, Russia and Ukraine, or the EU never wanted this war to last. I agree with you that Russia wants to end the war, but Ukraine wants that too, and the EU wants more. All have been ravaged by war, and they understand that it takes years or decades to recover and catch up to the pace of the world, but they are caught up in the never-ending war because a force wants to prolong this war.

In my opinion based on what I've seen, unfortunately this war seems to be getting more intense instead of slowing down because of cold, etc. United States has already given permission to hit targets in Russian soil and Russia has increased its attack on Ukrainian infrastructure to the point that more than half of the country has no electricity. I even heard rumors (that could be wrong) the capital could be emptied during winter due to no electricity and heat.

I really can't picture how this war is going to end and when but it needs to end soon. It has gone on long enough. It's unfair to the soldiers and civilians. Before the war, Putin said there will be no winners in this war. They all know there will be no winners but they keep on fighting. It's insane. I'm not an expert in international politics but if they way to resolve an issue is by killing thousands and tens of thousands then there is definitely a better way. It's just not right at all.

With the Russian and Ukrainian disputes, the world economy is declining, and this will be even worse if the country that cooperates with Russia cannot adjust to the current conditions,Many things cannot be lived properly because the sanctions given to Russia greatly affect other countries to provide for their economies properly, So with the current atmosphere, the government in each country must be able to adapt to the current situation, because until now the war is still continuing.

I recently watched an interview with Strelkov.  Strelkov (Girkin), who actually started this war in 2014, is now very pessimistic about Russia's ability to win the military campaign this winter. 

He calls for a total mobilization of people and the economy, the imposition of martial law throughout the country and the creation of a State Defense Committee with a new Stalin at the head. 

I think most Russians now want to end this war.  I even think that the Russian government also wants to end this war, but does not know how. 

As a result, the war may last for several years until the complete exhaustion of all the resources of both countries.  All this is a great misfortune.

I think the war will continue because recently, the Ukrainians asked Russia to cease fire during Christmas and New Year, but the Russian has bluntly stated that there will not be any truce. Ukraine also says that Russia is preparing for a new attack. The war will not stop, and with offensive tactics focused on energy infrastructure, winter will be even more beneficial for Russia. But Ukraine is also receiving greater aid from the US and Europe from patriot air defense systems as well as electrical equipment. It is impossible to say who will prevail.

But the lockdown was already over and prices dropped if I am correct

Since Russia and Ukraine are big exporters around the world the price of oil and wheat increased since they couldn't supply like they use to do.
That was advantage for other countries that exports the same product because of so much profit they will earn they will have to increase the price higher.

What will happen during the winter season? I have seen contrasting claims. Some claim that the fighting will die down and resume when the winter season ends. Some others claim that both Russia and Ukraine have mobilized large number of reserves and therefore the fighting may intensify in the coming months. Muddy weather hampered the operation of tanks and armored vehicles in the past and this issue won't be there once the ground gets frozen. What I don't know is which of the sides will get the advantage of winter climate.

And the impact does occur in all countries that have political relations and economic cooperation such as trade cooperation, export/import and so on. Not only the economy but even the crypto world is always affected. And I think this war can indeed drag on and have quite a long impact.

Ukraine is not only an agrarian country. It is famous for agriculture because it has a lot of good black soil. Ukrainian chernozems account for about 9% of the world's reserves, 30% of European ones, and cover an area of about 27 million hectares (46% of the country's territory). At the same time, 22 million hectares are arable land suitable for agribusiness. In terms of black soil area, Ukraine ranks fourth in the world after Russia, the USA and China.
But Ukraine also has a well-developed industry. Ukraine launched space rockets and had the third nuclear potential in the world.

Russia has been preparing for a war against Ukraine for a long time, because it did not want to let it out of its spheres of influence. In 2014, she managed to quickly and practically without resistance capture part of the territory of Ukraine, including the Crimean peninsula. There are a lot of reasons for this, including the entire vertical of power in Ukraine, permeated through with Russian spies, its deliberately collapsed armed forces, as well as the attitude of Ukrainians towards Russians as a fraternal people. But over the past eight years, the situation in Ukraine has changed. Much has fallen into place: the authorities have changed, the attitude of people towards Russia has changed.

And in Russia, because of the total corruption, theft, the habit of wishful thinking, they did not notice this. Therefore, for Putin and his entourage, the professionalism and tough resistance of the Ukrainian army and people came as an unpleasant surprise. And the war machine is unstoppable. Now the Kremlin understands that the war is lost, but they can no longer stop, because this will mean the end of their power. At the same time, the continuation of the war is only a continuation of the agony of power and more detrimental consequences for the Russians.

I don't buy the narrative that Russia felt threatened.
They were preparing this for many years, buying gold, heating up the conflict actively so they could come in and say
"we need to end it and bring peace now".
+ They were very busy getting russians into mood for war.
USSR times were glorified, I been to moscow few years ago and there was a huge campaign of soldier heroism going on,
little Stalin figures that you could buy on every corner.

There was so much to be gained for Russia, they did not expect all the support that Ukraine got now.
They expected to just go in and take it.

That is not a test but a direct deterrent that Russia wants to send to those who want to expand their power and manipulate to dominate the world. The world needs a balance of power, and should not let a certain country or block take control of everything, if that happens, the world will soon no longer be a society but will be a tool for that power-hungry. I think this war will not happen if the EU stops expanding the bloc and stops endangering other countries.

Is this an extreme marketing strategy for rifles and other weaponry? indeed when the world is too peaceful the arms industry will not be bought and war is deliberately scheduled by the superpowers to seek their own benefits, I see from the other side the war between Ukraine and Russia looks like it shows whose weapons are the most effective and powerful among their allies, this war is a big loss for countries dependent on these two countries, such as the price of food commodities and fossil fuels increasing drastically, the biggest impact of the Russia-Ukraine war was more felt by European countries both in terms of food and commodities.

The war between Russia vs Ukraine is almost a year and it looks like it will happen in a much longer time, Russia is getting more aggressive and Ukraine also doesn't want to give up so I'm sure this war will happen for at least another year, i think the invasion of Ukraine is a test from Russia to Europe and USA and want to see a reaction.

Only poor countries like us are afraid of war because war does not bring us any benefit, but for tycoons and empires who always claim to be peace-loving, war is what brings gives them huge profits. Countries get rich by selling weapons, and if the world becomes too peaceful, they won't be able to sell weapons, and from there, they won't be profitable, so they will find a way to create a war. War and economic crises are part of the world, they will never completely disappear.

Im not gonna talk wide long the impact of Russian and Ukraine war besides you guys saying energy is the price of noodle drive up since Ukraine is one of top Exporter of Wheat. yes maybe not just a noodle maybe bread and everything since this war causing domino effect. Im still curious why still there is war in this century 

No offense - have you tried writing fantasy books?
1. You didn’t understand, the question is not who the second army of the world is, but the first is definitely the United States, but the fact that Russia is fake in everything. Even in its positioning in military power. If the second army, then only among the third world countries The small army of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was able not only to contain their massive attack in February, but also to liberate 50% of the occupied territories, destroy about 100,000 terrorists of the Russian army, and destroy a very noticeable part of the equipment in the scale of the very "second army of the world."
2. No normal country will be subject to sanctions, this is for starters. Secondly, success is only on the channels of pro-Kremlin propagandists Secondly, the degradation of the economy is such that the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Finance of Russia have been screaming about it for 3 months already. And Putin and his accomplices are begging for negotiations and the lifting of sanctions Putin himself squeals from the demands that everything is going according to plan, but everyone will be forced to live in a very shrinking economy, the costs of social development and the economy are sharply reduced, the budget deficit is huge, we must be patient and " tighten your belts
3. The effect of the sanctions turned out to be even better than expected. The USSR was under sanctions for more than 10 years. Modern Russia is already in a state of collapse of the economy, burned budgets, frozen deposits and total impoverishment of the population, which is so poor in its mass!
But you can chant the mantras "no reason to worry, everything is fine, everything is under control, everything is going according to plan, there are no problems."

True, it will be interesting to see your facial expressions when you are rapidly falling into the abyss along with the "great and powerful economy of Russia"

The war between Russia and Ukraine seems to be dragging on indefinitely and turning into a war of resource depletion. Resources are being depleted by war on both sides. Russia has already lost almost the entire regular army that invaded Ukraine in February. Before the attack, Russia had about 3,500 combat-ready tanks, of which it had already lost about 3,000. Moreover, more than 500 Russian tanks were captured by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Approximately the same picture is now for other weapons. Russia is also running out of ammunition and cruise missiles. Previously, the occupiers could allow about 60,000 shells per day to be fired in Ukraine, and now even 20,000 shells for the Russians is a problem. Cruise missiles are also almost gone. Russia is still capable of producing about 40 cruise missiles per month and immediately bombards peaceful cities with them, aiming at energy infrastructure facilities. Russia even removed tanks and ammunition from the warehouses of Belarus as much as possible and is looking for weapons around the world. An example of this is the Iranian kamikaze drones used by it in Ukraine.

Ukraine is also experiencing similar problems but is being helped by more than 50 different countries. In fact, technologies of the NATO countries and the Russian Federation compete on the battlefield in Ukraine in armament. But it is already obvious that Russia is clearly inferior in this.

For Ukraine, to stop the war means to stop its existence as an independent state and as one of the ancient and powerful nations, which is an unacceptable option. To stop the war for Russia means the end of the Putin regime and the advent of peace.