Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 29. (Read 13382 times)

Certainly, the fight will be more fierce when the president of Ukraine makes an official visit to the US, it's like they are begging for more aid and Russia is showing discomfort because of this. I believe there will be a major air strike when Mr. Volodymyr Zelensky returns home. Ukraine was wrong and things are getting worse to believe that the US can save them.

The widespread impact on the economic sector since the war between Russia and Ukraine has indeed been felt even today. However, several countries that still maintain good economic relations with Russia seem to have started to adapt to the current situation. But still, if this war can be ended peacefully then it will be better, especially in terms of the economy of the two countries and all countries that have relations with these two countries. The ones who have suffered the most losses are probably Ukraine and Russia itself. However, European countries also felt the extraordinary impact. Gas prices have actually reached their highest level there. and that is very worrying.

It is way too soon to talk about defeat since this war is going to drag on for a long time.

Right now the Russian strategy is to stand back (after they captured strategic positions over the past couple of months) and slowly destroy Ukraine's infrastructure hoping they can break their forces while they shell any progressing forces to get high casualties. Unless Ukraine can break this strategy and push Russians back in the coming weeks, their chances of sustained resistance decreases significantly over time.
This is the least of what we are going to see all through winter.

As for oil prices, regardless of the result of this conflict there are a lot of other factors affecting that. For one the Russian oil has to come back to European markets at large to bring the price down and considering sanctions and the relationship with the West, I don't see that happening.
2 other important factors are China and whether they are going to be pulled into a war with Taiwan (or maybe even Japan!!) that could significantly decrease demand and bring the price down (here).
And whether the oil producing countries like Saudis are going to be allowed to increase production. As we speak the tensions between Yemen and Saudis is growing and over the past month multiple tankers stealing Yemenis oil were hit. Next target could be their oil infrastructure (the only thing preventing it so far has been FIFA World Cup in Qatar).

P.S. I disagree with the last sentence. US is actually too desperate to bring energy price down. This has been their strategy ever since they invented "Petrodollar" they first increased the oil price to force other countries to buy the massive amount of fiat they had printed (like during Pandemic) to buy the extra expensive oil. Then they ordered their colonies like Saudis to increase production and decrease price so that the high energy price doesn't move US economy into a recession+inflation combo.
This time they could not do that and US is experiencing both. FED has already increased interest rates multiple times and I believe right now it is somewhere close to 5% which means it has also lost its effectiveness in controlling inflation...

I think that given Russia's current tactic of using long-range missiles to attack Ukraine's energy infrastructure, it is not appropriate to mobilize the army for a general offensive. My prediction is that Russia will increase the use of low-cost UAVs combined with high-precision missiles to continue to attack Ukraine to make Ukraine mentally exhausted when winter has no energy to use, forcing them to negotiate.

Crude oil prices have spiked in recent days because China has begun to accept to live with the covid epidemic to open its economy, oil demand will increase sharply in the near future, so the possibility of a sharp drop in oil is very difficult.

The end of the war between Russia and Ukraine depends entirely on Putin, his entourage and the entire Russian people, who still support their government's military efforts to conquer the territory of Ukraine. Russia does not want an end to the war, and this must be said directly. It is enough for Russia to withdraw its occupying troops from Ukraine for this war to stop.

Yes, the Kremlin did not count on such tough resistance from the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the entire Ukrainian people. Before the invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, Russian troops were instructed to reach the outskirts of Kyiv within 48 hours. The armored power of eight Russian armies was never able to fulfill this criminal order, and after a month of fierce fighting, Russia was forced to hastily withdraw the remnants of its defeated armies from the central and northern part of Ukraine in order to save them from complete defeat.

To date, more than 100,000 Russian soldiers and officers have already died in Ukraine, more than 3,000 Russian tanks, about 6,000 armored vehicles, 282 aircraft, 267 helicopters, about 2,000 artillery systems, 412 MLRS and other military equipment have been destroyed, which Russia can no longer replenish in conditions of international sanctions.

The war continues as the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine will spell the end for the Putin regime. Therefore, they decided to delay the time of defeat, hoping only for a miracle.

There are two possible outcomes, since both the sides have ruled out ceasefire:

Ukrainian defeat: Russia mobilizes even more people, sends in an army of >1 million and conquers half of Ukraine. Probability is low, since the public mood in Russia is against anymore mobilization drives. And with the current armed forces strength (200,000 + 300,000 mobilized reserves), it is not possible for Russia to achieve a quick victory.

Russian defeat: Crude oil prices plummet to 2020 levels (~40 dollars per barrel). Russian budget revenue decreases and it gets impossible for them to continue with the war. The chances of this scenario is also quite low, since OPEC and Biden doesn't want lower oil prices.

Things in Russia are going so "well" that... Citizens of Russia - exclusively for you
The head of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, is proposing to develop recommendations on the "obligatory conversion of bank deposits in physical assets into defense loan bonds."

What is this about? This is about the fact that the deposits of individuals will be FORCED, without the consent of the owners, transferred to some pieces of paper of the state that lost the war, and will soon collapse. Those. the citizens of Russia, simply, silently, out of habit, steal their money! Last money ! And you will not be asked, once again just wiping your feet on you!

You can check it yourself - document number IN-12-16/4 dated December 16, 2022, addressed to Zhdanov A.Yu. (Director of the Financial Recovery Department of the Bank of Russia).

If someone does not find it, I can attach a photo of the document

I can tell you that, no one thought this war would last and become as fierce as it is now, Russia and Ukraine, or the EU never wanted this war to last. I agree with you that Russia wants to end the war, but Ukraine wants that too, and the EU wants more. All have been ravaged by war, and they understand that it takes years or decades to recover and catch up to the pace of the world, but they are caught up in the never-ending war because a force wants to prolong this war.

In my opinion based on what I've seen, unfortunately this war seems to be getting more intense instead of slowing down because of cold, etc. United States has already given permission to hit targets in Russian soil and Russia has increased its attack on Ukrainian infrastructure to the point that more than half of the country has no electricity. I even heard rumors (that could be wrong) the capital could be emptied during winter due to no electricity and heat.

I really can't picture how this war is going to end and when but it needs to end soon. It has gone on long enough. It's unfair to the soldiers and civilians. Before the war, Putin said there will be no winners in this war. They all know there will be no winners but they keep on fighting. It's insane. I'm not an expert in international politics but if they way to resolve an issue is by killing thousands and tens of thousands then there is definitely a better way. It's just not right at all.

With the Russian and Ukrainian disputes, the world economy is declining, and this will be even worse if the country that cooperates with Russia cannot adjust to the current conditions,Many things cannot be lived properly because the sanctions given to Russia greatly affect other countries to provide for their economies properly, So with the current atmosphere, the government in each country must be able to adapt to the current situation, because until now the war is still continuing.

I recently watched an interview with Strelkov.  Strelkov (Girkin), who actually started this war in 2014, is now very pessimistic about Russia's ability to win the military campaign this winter. 

He calls for a total mobilization of people and the economy, the imposition of martial law throughout the country and the creation of a State Defense Committee with a new Stalin at the head. 

I think most Russians now want to end this war.  I even think that the Russian government also wants to end this war, but does not know how. 

As a result, the war may last for several years until the complete exhaustion of all the resources of both countries.  All this is a great misfortune.

I think the war will continue because recently, the Ukrainians asked Russia to cease fire during Christmas and New Year, but the Russian has bluntly stated that there will not be any truce. Ukraine also says that Russia is preparing for a new attack. The war will not stop, and with offensive tactics focused on energy infrastructure, winter will be even more beneficial for Russia. But Ukraine is also receiving greater aid from the US and Europe from patriot air defense systems as well as electrical equipment. It is impossible to say who will prevail.

But the lockdown was already over and prices dropped if I am correct

Since Russia and Ukraine are big exporters around the world the price of oil and wheat increased since they couldn't supply like they use to do.
That was advantage for other countries that exports the same product because of so much profit they will earn they will have to increase the price higher.

What will happen during the winter season? I have seen contrasting claims. Some claim that the fighting will die down and resume when the winter season ends. Some others claim that both Russia and Ukraine have mobilized large number of reserves and therefore the fighting may intensify in the coming months. Muddy weather hampered the operation of tanks and armored vehicles in the past and this issue won't be there once the ground gets frozen. What I don't know is which of the sides will get the advantage of winter climate.

And the impact does occur in all countries that have political relations and economic cooperation such as trade cooperation, export/import and so on. Not only the economy but even the crypto world is always affected. And I think this war can indeed drag on and have quite a long impact.

Ukraine is not only an agrarian country. It is famous for agriculture because it has a lot of good black soil. Ukrainian chernozems account for about 9% of the world's reserves, 30% of European ones, and cover an area of about 27 million hectares (46% of the country's territory). At the same time, 22 million hectares are arable land suitable for agribusiness. In terms of black soil area, Ukraine ranks fourth in the world after Russia, the USA and China.
But Ukraine also has a well-developed industry. Ukraine launched space rockets and had the third nuclear potential in the world.

Russia has been preparing for a war against Ukraine for a long time, because it did not want to let it out of its spheres of influence. In 2014, she managed to quickly and practically without resistance capture part of the territory of Ukraine, including the Crimean peninsula. There are a lot of reasons for this, including the entire vertical of power in Ukraine, permeated through with Russian spies, its deliberately collapsed armed forces, as well as the attitude of Ukrainians towards Russians as a fraternal people. But over the past eight years, the situation in Ukraine has changed. Much has fallen into place: the authorities have changed, the attitude of people towards Russia has changed.

And in Russia, because of the total corruption, theft, the habit of wishful thinking, they did not notice this. Therefore, for Putin and his entourage, the professionalism and tough resistance of the Ukrainian army and people came as an unpleasant surprise. And the war machine is unstoppable. Now the Kremlin understands that the war is lost, but they can no longer stop, because this will mean the end of their power. At the same time, the continuation of the war is only a continuation of the agony of power and more detrimental consequences for the Russians.

I don't buy the narrative that Russia felt threatened.
They were preparing this for many years, buying gold, heating up the conflict actively so they could come in and say
"we need to end it and bring peace now".
+ They were very busy getting russians into mood for war.
USSR times were glorified, I been to moscow few years ago and there was a huge campaign of soldier heroism going on,
little Stalin figures that you could buy on every corner.

There was so much to be gained for Russia, they did not expect all the support that Ukraine got now.
They expected to just go in and take it.

That is not a test but a direct deterrent that Russia wants to send to those who want to expand their power and manipulate to dominate the world. The world needs a balance of power, and should not let a certain country or block take control of everything, if that happens, the world will soon no longer be a society but will be a tool for that power-hungry. I think this war will not happen if the EU stops expanding the bloc and stops endangering other countries.

Is this an extreme marketing strategy for rifles and other weaponry? indeed when the world is too peaceful the arms industry will not be bought and war is deliberately scheduled by the superpowers to seek their own benefits, I see from the other side the war between Ukraine and Russia looks like it shows whose weapons are the most effective and powerful among their allies, this war is a big loss for countries dependent on these two countries, such as the price of food commodities and fossil fuels increasing drastically, the biggest impact of the Russia-Ukraine war was more felt by European countries both in terms of food and commodities.