Topic: The real crash starts after Aug 1st - page 11. (Read 14591 times)

Even if segwit is implemented there will still be a probable hardfork later this year. You might see a rally in August for a little while but the uncertainty and fud is going to continue after it for quite a while yet.

I just started trading, 2 months ago. Currently, I am still waiting for the basic price or the best price according to the information I get. Although I lose almost 40% but I still HODL.

Give me a suggestion that you think is good, the scenario of what would happen after 1st August? What should I do, wait until what happen after that or buy before that day?

The graphs already show that the price goes in free fall,especially because there are still days for trust to return on the part of investors,I think they are returning to fiat while all this commotion occurs,fifteen days now in the face of such uncertainty is too long for the price to be maintained even at these levels,it seems that the adjustment will still be greater,probably one accompanied by three zeros,go event! will surely be remembered for a long time by virtue of what happens.

what about a win-win game with big boys?

iagree with you 100 percent
bitcoin  will rise to 3000 usd after some days

+  bitcoin will drop to 1400 than will rise to 2000 ------2500----3000----2500-----3800-----3000 

i think the same with you but i hope the price is not down too deep like many traders but we'll see. but we see that the price is start to down in last weeks ago and until now, the price is still down and even its down too deep and now reach $2,0xx, many traders is panic with this situation and it makes them to sell bitcoin with fast.

I think this crush will long till 1st August and then we will see huge growth, probably till 3k. Current crush is made just to buy as much as possible

Thanks DE for sharing your thoughts. While I am still a noob at the crypto trading. I've been trading for more than a decade and have seen my share of recessions cycles.

Given the sudden rise this year of crypto, I think it still has to shed 20-40% and the approaching August 1 could be the trigger, maybe not exactly on that date but it will happen.

My advise, if you are not a very good trader. HODL. If you think that crypto will be mainstream in the next 2-3 years to come, especially those coins or token that have good products that will come out late this year or early next year. Buy some more and hodl!

It really takes a lot of resolve to hodl if you see a stock or whatever coin you are holding fall down by 60-80%, but if you know that it has a good management and dev team + community behind it. It will come back up.

It takes grit to weather a violent storm but rewards are enormous.

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Remember: Cash is also a position. I'm saving my Fiat for now and will buy some crypto if there is a good dip. Whatever it is that I currently have in crypto will just stay there, probably put it to work via Proof of Stake to make good use of it while waiting for those to mature in the years to come. I'll probably unload when crypto becomes mainstream, wherein everyone is buying/selling it, just like the stock market.

Probably there will be a big crash but if this won't happen I think Bitcoin can reach the 3k cap pretty easily.

Already the crash has been started with many rumors of Split, it is creating a lot of panic in people mind and many people are dumping the coins at the lower price. I think things not working according to the situation because lot propagation going on whether Bitcoin will split or not.

At op:
Please give me only a single example, when a to the day predicted crash happened truly.
You wont find any.

When aug1st will come, the meal is already eaten.

Honestly I hope it crash a lot more, like at 1000$, cheap coins for the "hodl an buy low" guys like me. Anyway I think best strategy is not to "buy low" because nobody knows what low is, best strategy is probably to buy an amount you can afford to lose every week, increase that amount when price is falling an decrease it when price is going up.

Everything is possible, Bitcoin is good in history, but at now with a huge number user Bitcoin, the system Blockchain of Bitcoin can't still running stable, need more time and more fees for confirm transaction, usually have congestion transaction in Blockchain when have news can creating panic for the price of Bitcoin ...
=> Bitcoin is old and need find a ways can improve that, but I not think SegWit2x can improve 100% issue of Bitcoin, maybe for short time in 1-2 years

There's definitely gonna be some kind of run after Aug. 1st.
The direction is what I'm having a hard time calling - away from crypto or back

There is definitely some blood on the streets...

But why do you think that August 1st will cause another crash?

I think that once August 1st is over and there is more certainty about Bitcoin we will see a huge inflow of new money.

This will cause the greatest Bull run the crypto world has ever seen.

Why do we talking about crash? Actually things will be better after the august 1st. BTC whatever happens won't lose its popularity, certainly won't return to 2014. This is just misconception. Price can vary few days but as soon as situation settles we will see another good pump to 6k.
I must say some scenarios are very realistic and can influence your decisions if you are insecure, i would recommend you to read longer term predictions for BTC.

You seem to be a guy who has seen a lot as far as you told before, too.
Tbh, your words are very interesting to read in here.

I understand what you're trying to figure out and I agree with you seeing the whole crypto market.

To me and my holdings (only alts) it already took 60% off due to the last weeks and I didn't even look at the window so far.

But I bought even more coins of the position I was already in so that I reduced my overall entry point regarding its' btc value.
Of course not at the bottom level - I'm not nearly that good to know the best timing - I could have bought five times as much as I got with my rebuy seeing the last day movements. Though, my thinking tells me that some of the whales you're talking about have already accumulated huge amounts and won't be willing to fall for the possible upcoming panics at these levels.
BUT this only counts for few coins like mine I guess because it has a low circulating supply. Low supply means not many ppl need to be involved to control its' value.

In this case I would say we've seen the bottom already.
There will be many, many more dips in the upcoming weeks, but at a higher level than now.
In fact, I see this as a great chance to improve my day trading skills a lot.

Anyway, the only thing that gives you profit if you've entered at a higher level is to sit it out and hodl.

100% right.... except the buy at lows part.
If you have SUPER DISCIPLINE.... yes. Very few people actually have that (although a lot of people love to talk like they do, then you see them later crying).

I guess a lot depends on if you watch the action all the time (used to watch the every moment of the market day, and the futures markets at night..... super fun).
Takes balls of steel to hold stuff under those conditions (especially if you're a scalper... it's hell on earth).

But if you're aren't watching, and you're view is actually really long term.... yes, you're totally right.
Kind of a foreign concept to me..... but I'm so busy now I can't watch.... so I laugh when I check on what's happening.

When I was new, I tried catching the falling knife a few times (and got burned... LOL). That's learning.
When people write here about "buy once it goes down".... I know better. And it's not like these coins are cheap...... I mean, apples to apples, I'd rather have a stock certificate of a real company over a coin.... but this volatility can't be beat... and the best thing I was ever at trading wise was/is volatility. Made my money using options since that increased volatility.... but you also have to be really good at timing (and that's the hardest thing). With coins you get the volatility without the stinking option greeks. Beautiful.

-DE

I used to apply stocks and forex logic on bitcoin, but now i see it differently. They can't print more bitcoins into existence, and there are many bitcoins taken off the available market every day
by not jumping with all funds into one position. e.g. grid, or even [unleveraged] martingale with slow unloading on the way up

Maybe I've been lucky then.... almost every great score I've had was betting against the herd (and far more winners than losers there, even doing it blind).
Doing great work on fundamentals would bite me every time.... Every time!!!  T/A on the other hand was 55%-45% for straight T/A, and 70%-30% when using systems and indicators I program.
I've been lobbying my stock program developer to integrate a Crypto data feed into their software.... I sure hope they do it soon. They are very hesitant to add them. Like it's a fad or something.

I've been in some great stock trading rooms over the years though... learned from some really incredible people (and paid a lot to learn from them). It is not a flip of the coin by any means.
Best trader I ever had the pleasure of knowing was a higher up at Morgan Stanley... he was beyond incredible. He was almost exclusively a contra-sentiment trader. Pure instinct, and he was right 80% of the time, just by "feel". One of the only people I would call "naturally gifted" when it came to day trading.

But on the "how exactly do you trade it to make money?", oh I can answer that no problem..... Use a really good Revert To Mean, and you're ok 80% of the time.... but only if you're fast and not greedy. Doesn't matter which direction the movement is: and with the volatility these coins have.... it's a dream come true to me.

-DE