Topic: The real crash starts after Aug 1st - page 12. (Read 14611 times)

Yes I totally see your point and I appreciate your detailed reply, it really cleared things up. However, in your theory only the weak hands will get hurt and they deserve to as always. There will indeed be manipulation through this time, people who buy and sell right away because of fear of it going down. People who hold through all this and buy at cheap prices will still end up on top when the market is inflated again.

I guess the lesson here is to think like the big boys (whales) to avoid getting screwed.

just go for a vacation to beautiful greece, italy, spain and forget about cryptos, at least for a month
nice swimming everybody!

I understand what you are saying.

I've traded stocks also and know how "Earnings exceed expectations" but yet the stock goes down anyways since most of the retail market is in it, kind of like TSLA or AAPL.

The problem with your theory is that its never correct all the time. Your theory works half the time. Sometimes the retail market gets screwed, sometimes it doesn't.

So even if you take contrarian positions everytime, you will lose money anyways.

Yes on Aug 1st there can be GREAT news, and BTC can go down due to manipulation.

Or the exact opposite can happen. So how exactly do you trade it to make money? You can't.

Its no different than a moving average indicator.

they can grab only what people sell to them. any deep dump will be short lived, as there will be many buyers taking the opportunity to get bitcoin cheap. And there won't be  enough coins available to be bought at lower levels

Ok you're the exact type of person I'm trying to help (and I'm not trying to be condescending).
I started trading 10 years ago.... cut my teeth on penny stocks and small caps..... this is 100% the same behavior as crypo's. Same rules, same behaviors.

Maybe BTC is more isolated as people say it has more depth..... I can promise you it's market depth means nothing.... as does it's market cap. They aren't moving it's market cap, only it's order book and that is pure garbage.
The 1st thing people here need to do is stop looking at it as a currency, it doesn't matter if it is or isn't.... it's a stock. Same as USD, or paper Gold, or anything. If you can touch it, or get a futures contract on it, it's a commodity. If you can get a bond on something it's a security.
Any coin right now is a speculative stock.... the proper contemporary is a pink sheets stock (which runs from pennies to hundreds of dollars). The exchanges depth (the market maker/or lack of) is extremely similar.

It takes hundreds of millions to push the precious medals market around... and this is done on a daily basis. It takes billions to move the forex market around, and this is done on a daily basis.
The point is: It only takes a few million to move BTC around with a churning algo. A few million..... that's spare change. The same is done with small caps and pink sheets. It's churn.

What is the cardinal rule in trading? Sell the news.
It doesn't matter what the news is on the 1st. A long term positive decision won't be priced in advance.
Let's say some dream news comes out on the 1st.... best possible outcome. What will happen? The Muppets will buy, there will be a brief pop and the Muppets will be happy. The big boys will sell into the pop, and then drag it down. Why? The retail buyers will get nervous and question their purchase (understandable). There's nothing like loosing money to make people nervous.
What would you think if the news is good, and it drops below $2000? $1800? $1600?

2nd thing people need to understand is: The crowd is always wrong. If the general consensus is "after the 1st, it's going to go up".... and this IS the general consensus.... it means it is NOT going to happen. You're playing against the masters. Do they mind throwing away 20 million to drop it under $2000 when 90% of the Muppets think it'll go up? Not at all. If they can grab say a million coins and save a few hundred dollars a coin..... when they inflate it later.... they make hundreds of millions. That's the game.

I've seen it thousands of times, on hundreds of stocks I've followed closely. Fundamentals don't matter. Technicals only matter part of the time.

3rd thing people need to understand: Have you noticed the Coin exchanges break during big down moves? That's because of a lack of market depth. It happens on the big stock exchanges too. Anytime BATS breaks, that's manip and volume wasting the book. That's also how to you get phantom bars in trading software (algo's moving so fast they overwhelm the order book). So BTC is safe because so many people are "in it". No, no , no, my friend. That will get you killed. I've seen so many people go bust in stocks because they 100% believed what they were doing was right, and being right outweighed making money or being safe.


Just trying to help anyone who will listen. Be aware and be prepared. Have a plan.
My plan is to laugh. I've seen it before, and I'll see it again. Doesn't mean I like seeing good people get hurt.... quite the opposite.....I've seen that before.... and I'll see it again.

Hope you're right and we get a moon-shot right out of the gate after the 1st. That would be great. Experience tells me that's not going to happen.

-DE

I understand what you're saying, and I agree to an extent. If a whale is looking to pick up cheap coins, they will capitalise on the current uncertainty - if a lot of people are thinking that at 12:01am on Aug 01 prices will start to shoot straight back up, then the whale's best strategy is to throw in a sell wall to ensure that prices continue to fall... panic will ensue, people will throw their coins away for almost nothing, leaving the whale to buy them cheap.

I only agree to an extent though, because at the moment the market is moving as a whole. Everything is red. When the bitcoin issue is resolved, then everything will turn green. Which makes it harder for a whale to instil panic - for it to be truly effective, they'd have to either a) make every coin fall simultaneously, or b) focus the attack on bitcoin, which is obviously more difficult given the volumes involved.

FUD will likely to grow,
Uncertain is ahead.

There may be a drop but I expect that it would recover.
Once dropping then catching is the best.

I dont understand when you say "thats a lot of free coins for them to grab". You are not explaining how a crash will occur after august 1. Your post is very unclear. How are the big boys going to "crush our hopes"?

Either way, I think you are wrong. After August 1 I am thinking Bitcoin will go to $3000 relatively quickly and stay there, probably even go higher. The only reason the market is so red lately is because FUD about August 1 and threads like this.

All these peeps, holding for the "recovery" after Aug 1st.....

Don't you know the big boys are going to crush those hopes right after Aug 1st no matter what the outcome is?
That's a lot of free coins for them to grab, they aren't going to let the little guy make any money.... that's their money as far as they're concerned.
And yes, it's free coins for them.... because they manipulate the price.... so all the coins they grab from you will be sold after they bring the price back up (even if only for a little while). That's free profit for them.


So if you're holding, that's great... more power to you. I'm holding too, but I do know what's coming and it's impossible to catch the bottom.... I just don't care and I'll be laughing all the way down.

Remember your wits, don't get emotional, and for heavens sake..... when everyone is jumping out of windows (and they will)..... LAUGH.

-DE


"Why does Goldman Sachs call retail investors "Muppets"? Because they are....."