Topic: The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 20. (Read 99460 times)

Unfortunately, Taira is unsuccessful in trying to submit Royval. He doesn't have much ground-striking, I think it would have changed the situation if he didn't rely on his grappling. He slowed down in the 3rd round too.  If it weren't for the takedowns, Ropyval could have won the fight by KO.

The fight didn't turn out the way we see it,  but I can see the fight deserves a rematch.

Full set of result from last night:

Main card:
Flyweight: Brandon Royval def. Tatsuro Taira, Decision (split), Round 5, Time 5:00
Middleweight: Park Jun-yong def. Brad Tavares, Decision (split), Round 3, Time 5:00
Catchweight (172.5 lb): Chidi Njokuani def. Jared Gooden, Decision (unanimous), Round 3, Time 5:00
Lightweight: Grant Dawson def. Rafa García, TKO (elbows and punches), Round 2, Time 1:42
Welterweight: Daniel Rodriguez def. Alex Morono, Decision (split), Round 3, Time 5:00

Preliminary card:
Flyweight: Ramazan Temirov def. C.J. Vergara, TKO (punches), Round 1, Time 2:50
Featherweight: Pat Sabatini def. Jonathan Pearce, Submission (rear-naked choke), Round 1, Time 4:06
Welterweight: Themba Gorimbo def. Niko Price, Decision (unanimous), Round 3, Time 5:00
Heavyweight: Junior Tafa def. Sean Sharaf, TKO (punches), Round 2, Time 2:15
Women's Strawweight: Julia Polastri def. Cory McKenna, Decision (split), Round 3, Time 5:00
Catchweight (138.5 lb): Cody Haddon def. Daniel Argueta, Decision (unanimous), Round 3, Time 5:00
Flyweight: Clayton Carpenter def. Lucas Rocha, Technical Submission (rear-naked choke), Round 2, Time 2:12

The main event was a decent fight, both of them had their moments but the judges decided in Royval's favour with a split decision. That's a first loss in Taira's record, but it shouldn't impact his position in the ranking.

For today UFC Fight Night fights, there really aren't any fights that look interesting enough overall, but there is one fight that I think is better than the others and that is the fight between Royval vs Taira at flyweight.
Brandon Royval himself is flyweight fighter who has quite a lot of experience in this division and he is fighter who is challenger for the number 1 flyweight ranking and Tatsuro Taira here is an undefeated fighter in the 16 fights he has played, this will be fight that gives Taira an advantage and he is also the favorite.
For this fight I took the Double Chance betting option by choosing Taira to win by Submission or Points and gives odds @1.58, but unfortunately Royval fought very well and he dominated more so that victory was his, this was also the first defeat for Taira.

^  Yeah same...  There are some guys I haven't seen fight and I'm just judging from that the bookies think and from their Tapology page.   

But my leans would be Carpenter, Argueta, Tafa, Mckenna, Gorimbo, Pearce, Vergara, Rodriguez, Dawson, Njokuani, Park and Royval.

Here are the face offs.  Nice to watch to get a little bit excited for the event.

UFC Fight Night:  Royval vs. Taira Face Off
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_u7AhwalVU

As for Royval, the only worry is his TD defense.  It ain't that good.

Odds for all fights of tonight's event (from DuelBits):

Clayton Carpenter x1.44 Vs Lucas Rocha x2.80
Daniel Argueta x2.42 Vs Cody Haddon x1.57
Junior Tafa x1.30 Vs Sean Sharaf x3.60
Julia Polastri x1.77 Vs Cory Mckenna x2.05
Themba Gorimbo x1.27 Vs Niko Price x3.75
Jonathan Pearce x1.53 Vs Pat Sabatini x2.50
Carlos Vergara x3.60 Vs Ramazan Temirov x1.30
Daniel Rodriguez x1.46 Vs Alex Morono x2.75
Grant Dawson x1.25 Vs Rafa Garcia x4.00
Chidi Njokuani x1.58 Vs Jared Gooden x2.37
Brad Tavares x2.60 Vs Jung Yong Park x1.50
Brandon Royval x3.33 Vs Tatsuro Taira x1.33

Not going to lie, I don't have a clue who most of those guys are.
Odds for Royval looked kind of attractive, Taira is very young (only 24) and is 16-0 with most wins by submission, but he hasn't fought that many guys from the top yet, and Royval won't be easy to submit. In fact, Royval has a similar submission rate and overall, has more submission wins than Taira (9 Vs 7).

Expected Value

In simple terms in relation to betting:
If you bet $10 on a coin flip, and the profit for the win is only $5 - that's a negative EV
If you bet $10 and get $10 profit if you win - that's a neutral EV
If you bet $10 and the profit for the win is $15 - that's a positive EV.

In other words, you could see a positive EV when you believe a fighter's chance of winning is higher than the bookies' estimation.

This is not the first guy Dana brought someone who is also from Kickboxing who defeated Pereira. The previous one failed. Seem like they are trying to make a career out of Pereira just like the girls who launched their Onlyfans pages after accusing Pereira of rape. That's how popular the guy is. 

If they are to bring someone who will defeat Pereira, it's Anka, but he really has to wrestle or end up flat like the rest.

Talking about a drama series, The CAGE  (The new Netflix Show Starring GSP and JonJones)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4gz6Kwpotw

Yeah maybe match doesn't work in MMA but that's just the way it is in gambling in general. It's pushing small edges to be a long term winner...  That's if you're taking this stuff seriously.  I used to take poker as a serious hobby so EV came in handy.  But for sports betting UFC, F1 and football, not so much.  I just bet small to so I could watch with more interest.

Anyway, weigh ins in 4 hours or so.

UFC Fight Night:  Royval vs. Taira Official Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igkN90yAiuo

And I found this in UFC Brasil channel at YT...  This is fight of the year.  IMHO.

UFC Free Fight:  Holloway vs Gaethje
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SL9-irr3a0Y

tokeweed, you will like this, as I remember you follow Dana White Contender series.

We remember that UFC have signed Pereira from kickboxing to UFC to make a good competition for Izzy. There is a guy Artem Vakhitov, who recently won in uncle Danas series and was signed to UFC. This guy is known for loosing Pereira only by split decision and winning him by majority when they met in kickboxing. Moreover, Pereira asked UFC to sign this guy (but that is Russians media info, so that isnt 100% clear). Artem is still raw for mma, but with time, I think they will build a nice match-up for Pereira.

Experience of upsets, when underdogs wins or in a close fight someone throws a real surprise (like Edwards threw a highkick to Usman in fifth round or Volkov vs Lewis last seconds of last round KO) taught me that mathematics did not work with MMA And hard to make those imaginary 10 fights, without knowing full fighting background of both fighters Its like 3/10 or 5/10 but with huge pinch on random Anyway, I will choose Taira as I want to see more younger guys in flyweight. The older is the fighter, the slowest he is in such weight division.

EV means Expected Value...  It's a term from poker, or at least it's where I learned about it, which could also be applied in sports betting as it also deals with probabilities.  On top of my head, the best way to explain a '+EV' bet in MMA is when the odds being given on a particular fighter is too wide than what might be based on how you think the match is gonna play out.  So with Royval, we know he's the better striker, a decent grappler, has good cardio and has fought really good guys.  Taira is young, a bit inexperienced and with his record, does he really deserve where he's lined at rn based in what we know?

So you have to think in a vacuum, if Royval and Taira fought 10 times, how many matches would Royval win?  With his current line at 3.20, it says he's around 31% to win the fight...  Do you really think Royval would win just 3 out of 10?  I'm not sure what you think but I think it's prolly closer to 5 out of 10 which should make the line closer to a pick'em.  But at 3.20?  I think that's total value.

But then again, Taira could take Royval's back, SUB him, and make it look like Royval is sht. 

Which link should I put, I just wrote my own opinion 
I mentioned that there are a lot of fans who want to see him at heavyweight.
Also Ankalev is not a wrestler but a sambo player, that's true. But I think everyone would agree that his matches are boring.
The next card will feature Ankalev and Rakic. I don't think Ankalev will have much trouble.

What is EV? I am dumb and under EV I know only Electric Vehicle

About Topuria and Holloway. Do you think Topuria is going to make it as easy as against Volk? Could Topuria KO Max, who has never been knocked out in his career? Btw, I have recently read, that Max either never do sparring in his training (hard to believe), or never spar during camp (which might be more true, but also logical and illogical).

Yeah total disrespect because if Royval is gonna make it a close match and with the line he's right now, that would be a +EV value bet in hindsight.  If so, then in a vacuum, the right move for this match up is a straight up bet on Royval everytime...  But let's see what's gonna happen this weekend.  Taira could make it look easy and we just throw our hands up and say the bookies were right again.  Lol.

Then again, from what I've seen the books get it wrong a lot more in making lines in the UFC than say the EPL.

Just say this vid.  Still can't believe Topuria did Volk like that.    I thought Volk was value in that spot.

UFC Free Fight:  Topuria vs Volk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxTQZq5XMuA

My bad. Was reading forum from mobile and probably missed that. Anyway, what I was trying to say, that it wasnt that Rountree happened to be so good and many misjudged him, but Pereira wasnt Pereira in that fight I was actually confused a bit when his two sons helped him to walk out the octagon. It looked that they walked out like a family that hugs, but turns out sons helped him to feel balance.


I would not be surprised, if Aspinall retires as an interim heavyweight champ

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That will be a badass replacement but I think that Jon Jones will not be going to get injured intentionally in his fight against Stipe Miocic for me if Jon Jones fights a much more intimidating fighter like Tom Aspinall that will be the time he will get a UNO reverse card of getting injured for Poetan to replaced him this is a much-awaited fight that he wants but us UFC fans don't like it in my opinion, who here wants this fight to take place?

Well, if there are fans of Stipe Miocic here I surely respect you for getting mad at me but that is what I think with that matter Alex Pereira would surely settle 1st a big fight with Magomed Ankalaev or Jiri Prochazka I really don't like Jamahal Hill to take a spot in getting a title belt anymore.


Yup! I already posted it here I think you have never seen it, but that is what his camp has said and I think he also has included it in his pre-fight interview we didn't understand what he said but here is the link

https://sports.yahoo.com/alex-pereira-reveals-overcame-multiple-111720442.html#:~:text=I%20had%20a%20fever%2C%20I,my%20throat%20was%20still%20bad.

Social media claim that Pereira had only 3 week camp before UFC 307. Pereiras coach say, that Alex had some serious health issues: that little toes injury continue worry him (as I remember he broke that in a fight against Hill), got ribs injury during camp, twice he had fever and had antibiotics courses, sore throat. Also he had American visa problems. I guess all that describes his unusually weak performance. Btw, it was even discussed with UFC to cancel and postpone the fight.

My prediction on this. I reckon that after Jon Jones with his fried chicken legs has fought Stipe Miocic already, the UFC will declare Tom Aspinall as Jon's next opponent. However, only 1 week before this fight, Jon will announce that he has an injury during training. This will force the UFC to declare that the replacement is Alex Pereira. Poatan will certainly be very much happy for this because I predict that this will be his biggest purse from the UFC heheheheeh.

Yup, I had the same thought even before the fight. It's like seeing a wild animal slowly getting domesticated, or like watching the Rocky III when he got civilised 
I don't think getting comfortable with media and being active in promoting himself is the key problem. It's more of having his priorities right and keeping that edge and hunger up.


He definitely has the size for the heavyweight, and moving up the weight division is an old trick te extend fighters career a little bit, as generally the higher the weight class is, the slower the fighters are, and it's easier to maintain power than speed as one gets older.
I'd be very surprised if Pereira retires without ever moving to heavyweight.

You should put a link to that statement for Alex Pereira getting into the heavyweight I would like to see him in that Division but for now, I would like to see him fight a wrestler like Magomed Ankalaev preparing to go against Jon Jones for sure that will be a great fight but right now he has said in the article that he is staying at 205 pounds after his fight on UFC 307 and he would really like to be in the Heavyweight someday that is why he is consistently having fights it is to fasten his route to go beyond and because of his age he got no time left he needs to fight more.

https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2024/10/ufc-307-alex-pereira-staying-at-205-pounds-but-heavyweight-one-day-third-title

Did you all know that Alex Pereira's camp revealed that Pereira was not feeling well in the UFC 307 he has multiple health issues he said "I had a fever, I had a bad throat, and a lot of things happened. Also, going back: when I was in Brazil, I hurt my rib. It was an injury that I had about a year ago, and it came back, so that was also something that I was dealing with" They even said that they are preparing to back out from the fight on UFC 307 so the possibility of having a Julianna Peña VS Raquel Pennington for a main event which is not good at all as that Main Event is a great treat for fans.

https://sports.yahoo.com/alex-pereira-reveals-overcame-multiple-111720442.html#:~:text=I%20had%20a%20fever%2C%20I,my%20throat%20was%20still%20bad.