The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 23.

TopTort777

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UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho

Date: August 25, 2024

Preliminary Card: Sun, Aug 25 / 5:00 AM GMT+3
Main Card: Sun, Aug 25 / 5:00 AM GMT+3

Venue: UFC Apex

Main card (ESPN)
Middleweight: Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho
Women's Strawweight: Angela Hill vs. Tabatha Ricci
Welterweight: Neil Magny vs. Michael Morales
Middleweight: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Middleweight: Ryan Loder vs Robert Valentin

Preliminary card (ESPN)
Featherweight: Danny Silva vs. Dennis Buzukja
Middleweight: Zachary Reese vs. José Daniel Medina
Lightweight: Viacheslav Borshchev vs. James Llontop
Women's Bantamweight: Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs. Josiane Nunes
Women's Flyweight: Wang Cong vs. Victoria Leonardo

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_on_ESPN:_Cannonier_vs._Borralho

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Quote from: TopTort777 on August 18, 2024, 09:08:29 AM

This judge was either blind, or is Tuivasa friend, or bet on him Grin

As to main event, still no one could crack DDP magic. First round was even, second and third I would give to Izzy. Fourth, also Izzy, who was landed more, found his distance, looked more fresh. Then all of a sudden, a weird overhand, two more punches and Izzy is tapping…

This fight was quite fierce but I saw Adesanya had fairly dominant advantage in terms of attack, almost all of Adesanya kicks and punches went in even though Du Plessis was able to hold them back and counterattack several times.
In the second and third rounds, both really pressed each other but Adesanya did have the advantage, for the fourth rounds when it started showing Adesanya doing fairly hard uppercut and after that Du Plessis looked like he was starting to get overwhelmed and his energy was decreasing.
But unexpectedly Du Plessis was able to put Adesanya under pressure and deliver several punches before really getting the momentum that could create an opportunity for rear-naked choke until Adesanya decided to give up.

It should be noted that the rear-naked choke is dangerous lock and anyone will definitely have difficulty releasing this lock if it is really done correctly.
I lost the bet and Adesanya had to fail to win the title after almost year of rest, in the end Du Plessis retained his belt.

pawel7777

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Quote from: darkangel11 on August 18, 2024, 01:01:50 PM

(...)
He was crying and swearing on that pre-fight conference and finally stepped out. I remember him say in public he's employing a mental therapist, so maybe there's something wrong with his head.

I didn't know about the mental therapist, but maybe it's just a sports psychologist, which are used quite commonly these days just to boost performances.
He does make an impression of being a bit unhinged, especially when you consider he's already 35, something that I keep forgetting about, as he doesn't look or act his age.
I wish him well though and hope he doesn't retire yet.

As for the DPP's next fight, allegedly Alex Pereira called him out saying he could move back down to the middleweight, but I think it's just a talk. Pereira is fighting with Khalil Rountree Jr. in October anyway, which I learned today, and I can't understand what motivated the UFC to match them both (I was on hols and wasn't following any news too closely).

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Quote from: TopTort777 on August 18, 2024, 09:08:29 AM

This judge was either blind, or is Tuivasa friend, or bet on him Grin

As to main event, still no one could crack DDP magic. First round was even, second and third I would give to Izzy. Fourth, also Izzy, who was landed more, found his distance, looked more fresh. Then all of a sudden, a weird overhand, two more punches and Izzy is tapping…

You never know for sure Grin

darkangel11

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Quote from: danherbias07 on August 18, 2024, 01:08:33 AM

Sorry @pawel7777, the AI predicted it wrong.

Most people were wrong about this because bookies were giving the fight to Gamrot and he also had a much better score and a winning streak. To be honest, he's also a better fighter than Hooker. When there's just a 2 point difference because that's what the scores were, it's not about who's better. It's like rolling the dice because you hit someone a lot in each round and you can't be sure how they're counting it. They were both doing good and a proof for that is the fact that Gamrot got a bonus for the best fight.

Quote from: pawel7777 on August 18, 2024, 11:43:51 AM

Huge win for Dricus. He has proven that he's not a champ by accident. He served Adesanya his first submission loss, but he has also shown that he can fight in a stand-up with him like an equals.
Some are now questioning if Izzy is the same as before, pointing out that after that first TKO by Alex Pereira, his style changed and it looks like he's a bit more afraid of getting punched and he's not engaging in counter-striking as much as he used to, but would rather move back or start running away. To me, it seems like he lost a lot of motivation.

He was crying and swearing on that pre-fight conference and finally stepped out. I remember him say in public he's employing a mental therapist, so maybe there's something wrong with his head.

pawel7777

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Huge win for Dricus. He has proven that he's not a champ by accident. He served Adesanya his first submission loss, but he has also shown that he can fight in a stand-up with him like an equals.
Some are now questioning if Izzy is the same as before, pointing out that after that first TKO by Alex Pereira, his style changed and it looks like he's a bit more afraid of getting punched and he's not engaging in counter-striking as much as he used to, but would rather move back or start running away. To me, it seems like he lost a lot of motivation.

I hope Izzy will stay around, otherwise the middleweight division could get a bit boring. I guess he could fight Whittaker next to see if he can still defeat him for the 3rd time, that would be a good test for him.

I understand DPP is fighting Sean next, but after that, there aren't many potential big fights for him, unless Khamzat is back in shape and manages to score a win on one of the top guys to earn his right to a title shot.

Quote from: OgNasty on August 18, 2024, 02:27:58 AM

After tonight’s fight Happy Punch is claiming that Drake’s sports betting record is now 17-189. That is a suspiciously terrible winning percentage from someone you think would be plugged into this sort of thing. It gets even worse when you consider the fact he basically just chooses the favorite to win every fight. Curious…

That's crazily low. You could get better results just by flipping a coin to decide who to bet on. Although we shouldn't be looking at the number of bets but on the net profit/loss, because that's what matters.

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Quote from: OgNasty on August 18, 2024, 02:27:58 AM

After tonight’s fight Happy Punch is claiming that Drake’s sports betting record is now 17-189. That is a suspiciously terrible winning percentage from someone you think would be plugged into this sort of thing. It gets even worse when you consider the fact he basically just chooses the favorite to win every fight. Curious…

So many bettors weren't trusting the awkward ways of DDP but it looks like the fluke keeps recurring. And Drake of course will put his money on to Izzy.

The card is like a card of upsets even in the prelims. Erceg and Gamroot where people are more confident they'd win, lost their fight. Izzy could have won it but it looks like he has been countered every time too. I'm sure he was winning until Izzy turned his back against DDP when he was chased by swings.

TopTort777

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This judge was either blind, or is Tuivasa friend, or bet on him Grin

As to main event, still no one could crack DDP magic. First round was even, second and third I would give to Izzy. Fourth, also Izzy, who was landed more, found his distance, looked more fresh. Then all of a sudden, a weird overhand, two more punches and Izzy is tapping…

tokeweed

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Life, Love and Laughter...

Here are the results of the event...

Dricus du Plessis def Israel Adesanya SUB R4
Kai Kara-France def Steve Erceg TKO R1
Dan Hooker def Mateusz Gamrot Decision SD
Jairzinho Rozenstruik def Tai Tuivasa SD
Carlos Prates def Li Jingliang KO R2
Valter Walker def Junior Tafa SUB R1
Ricardo Ramos def Joshua Culibao SD
Casey O'Neill def Luana Santos UD
Jack Jenkins def Herbert Burns TKO R3
Tom Nolan def Alex Reyes UD
Song Kenan def Ricky Glenn UD
Jesus Santos Aguilar def Stewart Nicoll SUB R1

Things I learned from the event are the UFC did it again. Brought in a fighter with a lot of hype on his debut and lost against somebody who has more experience in the UFC. I'm talking about Aguilar vs Nicoll. If you guys look at Nicoll's record, yeah he's undefeated... But look at the record of the guys he's beaten. They're mostly cans and that one guy he beat who was undefeated, they're all cans too. Wink

Another thing is Culibao has low fight IQ.

And hilarious that one judge gave Tuivasa 30 - 27. It should be a UD win for Roz.

UFC 305: Post Fight Press Conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkXojR6FE6U

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Quote from: OgNasty on August 18, 2024, 02:27:58 AM

After tonight’s fight Happy Punch is claiming that Drake’s sports betting record is now 17-189. That is a suspiciously terrible winning percentage from someone you think would be plugged into this sort of thing. It gets even worse when you consider the fact he basically just chooses the favorite to win every fight. Curious…

This has left Netizen's to believe that the drake curse is real, I even came across some dudes comment on X saying that drake is the Canadian Trey and anyone he stakes on ends up losing, well I don't normally believe much on superstitious stuffs, i think drake is mostly unlucky but come to think of it Isreal Adesanya always loses whenever drake bets on him and am gradually buying the idea that the said drake curse is real given that he chooses the favorite and they end up losing, come to think of it about $450k is gone, another big lose for drake, well he's a very wealthy person and it might not affect him much since he still got other major sources of income.

OgNasty

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After tonight’s fight Happy Punch is claiming that Drake’s sports betting record is now 17-189. That is a suspiciously terrible winning percentage from someone you think would be plugged into this sort of thing. It gets even worse when you consider the fact he basically just chooses the favorite to win every fight. Curious…

danherbias07

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Sorry @pawel7777, the AI predicted it wrong.

Israel Adesanya's cardio went down when DDP wrestled him but so was DDP. Still, one more takedown changed the fight, and DDP submitted Adesanya through a rear naked choke.
I thought Adensanya could actually finish that fight in Round 4. All his strikes are very accurate and his body strikes are paying dividends as DDP was feeling all of it. But that one hook punch from DDP changed everything and it's obvious that Adensaya felt that as he ran to take some rest.
Still, that was a good fight especially that Round 3. I enjoyed it. I lost my bet for Adesanya though. Sadly.

bbc.reporter

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@pawel7777. Heehhehe does this chatgpt fight analyst not watch UFC? I reckon all of this predictions you are sharing for everyone will be wrong hehehe. In any case, similar to my prediction on August 15, Dan Hooker has won against the very big favorite Mateusz Gamrot heheheh. However, this was only with a split decision but congratulations to Dan Hooker, Gamrot is certainly a very difficult fighter to defeat.

Also, on chatgpt fight analyst prediction on a knockout for Izzy, I reckon this might be a decision if he is the winner. On Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg, this will be Steve Erceg with a knockout victory.

pawel7777

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According to Chat GPT Fight Analyst Advanced, Adesanya will KO Du Plessis in round 4:

I hope it's wrong though. I don't think it accounts for the fact that Adesanya had some time off and seems to be emotionally unstable even more than before.

Its predictions for other fights:
Gamrot Vs Hooker: Gamrot wins by decision
Kara-France Vs Erceg: Kara-France wins by decision. <-- this one is a bit odd as Erceg is a favorite (odds of x1.47).

Let's wait and see.

tokeweed

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Ok folks, here are the weigh in results... Just one fighter who missed weight by 1.5 lbs but no biggie. Fight still goes on. Aguilar will be fined 20% of his money tho.

So yeah, can't wait for the main event with this one. And I tried talking myself into betting Adesanya but I just can't do it. I put a small bet on DDP. My other bet is just a multi leg parlay with Erceg, Gamrot, Roz, Culbao and Song for fun.

Champ Dricus Du Plessis (185) vs Israel Adesanya (184)
Steve Erceg (125.5) vs Kai Kara-France (125)
Mateusz Gamrot (156) vs Dan Hooker (155.5)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (259) vs Tai Tuivasa (265)
Li Jingliang (171) vs Carlos Prates (170)
Junior Tafa (244) vs Valter Walker (252)
Josh Culibao (146) vs Ricardo Ramos (145.5)
Casey O’Neill (125.5) vs Luana Santos (126)
Herbert Burns (146) vs Jack Jenkins (145.5)
Tom Nolan (155.5) vs Alex Reyes (156)
Ricky Glenn (171) vs Song Kenan (171)
Jesus Aguilar (127.5)* vs Stewart Nicoll (126)

*Missed weight

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Quote from: Hanadawa on August 16, 2024, 06:36:40 AM

Quote from: cabron on August 15, 2024, 10:21:15 AM

Izzy is only interested in a stand up fight which he thinks he has the advantage and it must be true.-snip-

As far as I know DDP has good wrestling skills and it was surprising when DDP was able to dominate Strickland. But if it was a stand up fight I honestly think Adesanya would be more favored than DDP. Adesanya has very very good striking skills and is like on a different level from other fighters. He has dominated the middleweight division for a long time. In fact Adesanya as a contender is more interesting to watch than Adesanya as a champion lol Grin

.
I remember his fights against Gastelum and Whittaker before he became champion, or when vs Pereira 2 after losing the first meeting. It seems like Adesanya can play more aggressively as a contender. Without underestimating DDP if it was a striking fight I would take Adesanya. But the problem is DDP has a good fighting IQ like when he fought Strickland.

So much for what has been speculated in this fight. To me, the odds still are very close that the first to have struck hard can win instantly. Several predictions have been made already but one that I'm seeing to happen is Adesanya KO'd by Dricus because he is more focused on not being taken down while Dricus can strike out of nowhere. Most of his fights somehow ended in a way where his opponent was struck by an unexpected jab. Like they said, he is awkward and his strikes are unexpected most of the time.

TopTort777

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Look on numbers and on a paper. Izzy managed to become a champ. Has defended his belt 6 times. Avenged his biggest rival Pereira. Got his belt back. Would anyone be motivated to kill himself in gym more? DDP, has a strong chin, but a lot of his wins are by a lucky and weird punch. That is not elite striking, that is blocking strikes with head and all of a sudden throw an unexpected lucky strike. More about DDP - I dont know where this guy is good at. Seems he knows everything on average level, and ability to eat strikes with no damages (kind of a Wolverine skill lol) helps him all the time. Weird striking with weird timing.

Btw, hiw many times you remember champions get their belts back? It is easier to get a belt, than return a Cool

tokeweed

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Quote from: cabron on August 15, 2024, 10:21:15 AM

Quote from: tokeweed on August 15, 2024, 06:27:34 AM

Quote from: TopTort777 on August 14, 2024, 09:08:25 AM

The reason why bookies see Izzy as a favorite imho is because they take into considerstion his past achievements more than his shape and mental preparation. I think you have forgotten how boring Izzy became when he got belt for first time. You can say this is because he was more cautious, but he defended the belt by UD, but not by total dominance and knocking out. Imho he did not want to risk, get his paycheck and chill. Isnt motivated to win. Imho he isnt motivated much to get belt back and clear whole division again.

Yeah but if you really look into his past performances, he wasn't really knocking guys out or having an optically dominant performances except for the first match up vs Whittaker, the one vs Costa and the Pereira one when he played possum. But most of his match ups were boring and low volume.

I guess it will depend on the line. If either DDP or Adesanya goes to 2.35 and up, it's prolly a value bet. But still dunno... A part of me wants to see Adesanya KO's DDP.

Izzy is only interested in a stand up fight which he thinks he has the advantage and it must be true. He will prevent Dricus from taking him down or get closer to him. Its a fair odds I think especially Izzy has been away for a long time but considering what he could do in the cage, 1.87 in his favor is good already.
According to few analyst there will be a KO in this fight, both of them are just eager to prove and they hate each other.

Adesanya calling UFC about their treatment to Ngannou, I think will make him another Dana's enemy in the future though.

But DDP is a strooong dude... He'll prolly get at least one TD. I can't see how Adesanya doesn't get taken down here. But Adesanya's stand up game is decent so it prolly won't be a big problem.

Anyway you guys see the pre fight press conference? Rofl. DDP made Adesanya cry.. Cheesy

The guy pretty good at this. Grin

UFC 305: Pre Fight Press Conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAcpAT4Y_kQ

Live weigh ins in 10 hours.

UFC 305: Live Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSZO54RSb7g

And ceremonial weigh ins around 5 hours after that.

UFC 305: Ceremonial Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raEeVbQ5GWA

Forgot about jeremypwr's Multi Master but it looks like the regs already made their predictions.

UFC 305: Multi Master Challenge
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sportsbetio-ufc-305-multi-master-challenge-17-august-5505950

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Quote from: cabron on August 15, 2024, 10:21:15 AM

Izzy is only interested in a stand up fight which he thinks he has the advantage and it must be true.-snip-

As far as I know DDP has good wrestling skills and it was surprising when DDP was able to dominate Strickland. But if it was a stand up fight I honestly think Adesanya would be more favored than DDP. Adesanya has very very good striking skills and is like on a different level from other fighters. He has dominated the middleweight division for a long time. In fact Adesanya as a contender is more interesting to watch than Adesanya as a champion lol Grin

.
I remember his fights against Gastelum and Whittaker before he became champion, or when vs Pereira 2 after losing the first meeting. It seems like Adesanya can play more aggressively as a contender. Without underestimating DDP if it was a striking fight I would take Adesanya. But the problem is DDP has a good fighting IQ like when he fought Strickland.

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 14, 2024, 08:58:02 PM

I have a speculation on Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker. Similar to Muhammad Mokaev, I speculate that the UFC might suggest to Mateusz Gamrot that he should decrease his wrestling because wrestling is boring. I reckon this will certainly be very much more favourable for Dan Hooker and I predict he will have the victory hehehhehe.

Gamrot is very much aware that he needs to be more entertaining to get a chance for a title shot (or a big money fight).
He's not stupid though. He might (and most likely will) engage in a striking exchange, but if it doesn't go his way, he will use his wrestling to make sure he gets the win.
Luckily for him, Hooker does not have a super-solid takedown and submission defence, so Gamrot should be able to finish him off with a submision, or maybe ground-and-pound.

Topic: The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 23. (Read 96871 times)