The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 24.

TopTort777

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With last two fights, Saint Denis showed us that top of any UFC division aint no joke Cheesy

Before facing top, Saint Denis finished all his opponents, as soon as he started to get guys from the top: KOed in second round by Poirier, TKOed in second round by Moicano Cheesy

2 fights, 2 nasty knockouts. Either he will now get someone easy (and that would be a nice bet to make), or again someone from the top (and the bet would be very risky) and he will risk to be kicked from UFC.

tokeweed

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^ Yup lmaooo!! Now the question is what does this mean for Saint Denis? I guess he'll end up like Fiziev... His career in limbo. I wouldn't mind Fiziev vs Saint Denis tbh. Grin

My money will be on Fiz.

Anyway, what did you guys think of the Brito vs Gomis match? I think Brito won by a slight margin. And he was the aggressor for most of the match.

Edit: Next event...

Date: Saturday, October 5
Main Card (PPV): 10:00pm EST
Preliminary Card (ESPN/ESPN+): 8:00pm EST
Early Prelims (ESPN+/Fight Pass): 6:15pm EST
Venue: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah

Main Card (PPV)
Light Heavyweight: Alex Pereira vs Khalil Rountree Jr.
Women's Bantamweight: Raquel Pennington vs Julianna Peña
Bantamweight: Jose Aldo vs Mario Bautista
Women's Bantamweight: Ketlen Vieira vs Kayla Harrison
Middleweight: Roman Dolidze vs Kevin Holland

Preliminary Card (ESPN/ESPN+)
Welterweight: Stephen Thompson vs Joaquin Buckley
Women's Strawweight: Marina Rodriguez vs Iasmin Lucindo
Middleweight: Cesar Almeida vs Ihor Potieria
Lightweight: Alexander Hernandez vs Austin Hubbard

Early Prelims (ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass)
Women's Strawweight: Carla Esparza vs Tecia Pennington
Light Heavyweight: Ryan Spann vs Ovince Saint Preux
Welterweight: Court McGee vs Tim Means

pawel7777

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Full set of results of last night's Fight Night in Paris:

Fantastic performance by Moicano - despite being a big underdog, he beat up Saint Denis (in front of French audience) in the first 2 rounds so badly that the doctor had to stop it. Then he lectured everyone about why Macron and the French government sucks and why democracy is flawed to top it up by calling out "easy money fights" with Paddy Pimblett and Dan Hooker. This is a textbook example of how to hype yourself up properly—well done to him.

cabron

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^
Chandler has the KO power to win against Oliveira. The chances of Oliveira surviving Chandler's attack are pretty high just as they had before when Oliviera made it after the first 2 rounds of their fight and overturned the outcome by KO. Even if Chandler brings the fight to the ground, this could lead instead to him getting submitted in the later rounds. Just my take, Oliveira adapts in every fight.

Oliveira by Sub is probably 2.40 this should be a good bet still. That is just my speculation though.

tokeweed

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^ Yeah I'd prolly go Chandler via KO and the line could go north of 7.00. But we'll see when the props come out... And we can't really go with Oliveira with where his line is at if we think about his durability issues. But he def could finish Chandler via SUB. But that's not gonna pay much me thinks.

Anyway here are the weigh in results. Just one miss... Good enough.

Renato Moicano (156) vs Benoit Saint Denis (156)
Brendan Allen (186) vs Nassourdine Imavov (186)
Joanderson Brito (146) vs William Gomis (146)
Bryan Battle (170) vs Kevin Jousset (169)
Morgan Charriere (146) vs Gabriel Miranda (146)
Matt Frevola (156) vs Fares Ziam (156)
Ion Cutelaba (205) vs Ivan Erslan (206)
Da Woon Jung (205) vs Oumar Sy (205)
Ludovit Klein (155) vs Roosevelt Roberts (155)
Ailin Perez (136.5)* vs Darya Zheleznyakova (135)
Taylor Lapilus (136) vs Vince Morales (135)
Victor Altamirano (126) vs Daniel Barez (125)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti (135) vs Nora Cornolle (136)
Chris Duncan (156) vs Bolaji Oki (156)

*Missed weight

UFC Paris: Ceremonial Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLb22CmYJgQ

My leans based on the list above...

Moicano
Allen
Brito
Jousset
Charriere
Frevola
Cutelaba
Sy
Klein
Perez
Lapilus
Altamirano
Cavalcanti
Oki

pawel7777

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Quote from: TopTort777 on September 27, 2024, 03:28:15 AM

Possible, UFC matchmakers have such a plan: they really hope that Chandler would beat Oliveira. This would make Chandler #2 in lightweight, and it could be smart to organize Chandler vs McGregor fight then, and really hope that Conor win. Potentially, this makes him a real contender for a title fight. Just imagine hype if Conor returns, and after 1 fight, fights for a belt, and he wins it.

That would be a bold plan given that Charles KO'd Chandler in the 2nd round of their first fight and there's no way Chandler is any better now than he was back then.
If they we're to prop up Chandler before fighting McGregor (who is not coming back but we can still pretend) they'd match him up with Gaethje instead.

Meanwhile, McGregor is calling out Paddy Pimblett now:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/other-sports/mma/conor-mcgregor-ufc-fight-news-33756814
*yawn*

Quote from: tokeweed on September 27, 2024, 07:31:21 AM

Oof... Chandler at 3.05 could be a decent bet. I don't think a lot of fans realize how chinny Oliveira is. And Chandler packs a good punch. His cardio could be an issue but then again Oliveira isn't a cardio machine either.

I dunno, somehow I can't imagine Chandler defeating Charles. Is it possible? Yes. Probable? Not really. x3.05 is not enough for me.

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Quote from: TopTort777 on September 27, 2024, 07:58:17 AM

Quote from: tokeweed on September 27, 2024, 07:31:21 AM

Oof... Chandler at 3.05 could be a decent bet. I don't think a lot of fans realize how chinny Oliveira is. And Chandler packs a good punch. His cardio could be an issue but then again Oliveira isn't a cardio machine either.

But yeah, decent match up. At least Chandler got a good opponent as the match up vs McGregor wasn't meant to be.

Yeap, remember how in the past, or in the beginning of career in UFC, Oliveira used to give up and tap as soon as he gets some damage or feels that something happens with his body (past injury reveals itself). I really dont like his tactics of falling on the back, on the canvas after getting first damage to head, and try to welcome to fight on his territory of BJJ. Check any video where he gets a head punch. Boom and he is on the back, welcoming his opponent for a full mount. Since his striking base is Muay Thai, with clinches and etc, will it be an advantage for a wrestler like Chandler? Doing takedowns is pretty dangerous, as it opens neck for a guillotine. And having a backpack with brand name Charles Oliveira on the back is always a huge threat.

After several losses in Charles's UFC career, he eventually picked the timing. This is their rematch already which Chandler almost won in the first fight but was caught by a left hook and rattle to the very end. Chandler always has this moment every time he receives a big blow - one time Chandler vs Brooks where he was stunned and was shocked he was waving his hands facing somewhere else.

Congrats to Chandler though. He finally gets a good fight after waiting for Connor. Maybe he can get even.

TopTort777

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Quote from: tokeweed on September 27, 2024, 07:31:21 AM

Oof... Chandler at 3.05 could be a decent bet. I don't think a lot of fans realize how chinny Oliveira is. And Chandler packs a good punch. His cardio could be an issue but then again Oliveira isn't a cardio machine either.

But yeah, decent match up. At least Chandler got a good opponent as the match up vs McGregor wasn't meant to be.

Yeap, remember how in the past, or in the beginning of career in UFC, Oliveira used to give up and tap as soon as he gets some damage or feels that something happens with his body (past injury reveals itself). I really dont like his tactics of falling on the back, on the canvas after getting first damage to head, and try to welcome to fight on his territory of BJJ. Check any video where he gets a head punch. Boom and he is on the back, welcoming his opponent for a full mount. Since his striking base is Muay Thai, with clinches and etc, will it be an advantage for a wrestler like Chandler? Doing takedowns is pretty dangerous, as it opens neck for a guillotine. And having a backpack with brand name Charles Oliveira on the back is always a huge threat.

tokeweed

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Quote from: pawel7777 on September 26, 2024, 04:11:17 PM

Somehow I missed the UFC 309 announcement.
Everything has been said about Jones Vs Stipe, so nothing to add here, bur Oliveira Vs Chandler looks like a decent match-up and has a lot of entertainment potential.
Odds: Oliveira: x1.38, Chandler: x3.05, pretty much what I would expect. I don't give Chandler much chance, even in his prime he wouldn't be on Chales' level, but he's 38 now and last fought two years ago. He should still be able to put up a good show.

Bo Nickal got paired up with Paul Craig. It doesn't look like a massive challenge for Bo, Paul has lost 4 out of his last 5 fights, but at least he knows his ground game, 76% of his wins were by submission (he's 17-8). Bookies don't have much faith in Paul though. He's x6.75 and Bo is x1.11.

Oof... Chandler at 3.05 could be a decent bet. I don't think a lot of fans realize how chinny Oliveira is. And Chandler packs a good punch. His cardio could be an issue but then again Oliveira isn't a cardio machine either.

But yeah, decent match up. At least Chandler got a good opponent as the match up vs McGregor wasn't meant to be.

Anyway, live weigh ins in three hours or so.

UFC Paris: Ceremonial Weigh-In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLb22CmYJgQ

Enjoy...

TopTort777

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Quote from: pawel7777 on September 26, 2024, 04:11:17 PM

Somehow I missed the UFC 309 announcement.
Everything has been said about Jones Vs Stipe, so nothing to add here, bur Oliveira Vs Chandler looks like a decent match-up and has a lot of entertainment potential.
Odds: Oliveira: x1.38, Chandler: x3.05, pretty much what I would expect. I don't give Chandler much chance, even in his prime he wouldn't be on Chales' level, but he's 38 now and last fought two years ago. He should still be able to put up a good show.

Bo Nickal got paired up with Paul Craig. It doesn't look like a massive challenge for Bo, Paul has lost 4 out of his last 5 fights, but at least he knows his ground game, 76% of his wins were by submission (he's 17-8). Bookies don't have much faith in Paul though. He's x6.75 and Bo is x1.11.

Possible, UFC matchmakers have such a plan: they really hope that Chandler would beat Oliveira. This would make Chandler #2 in lightweight, and it could be smart to organize Chandler vs McGregor fight then, and really hope that Conor win. Potentially, this makes him a real contender for a title fight. Just imagine hype if Conor returns, and after 1 fight, fights for a belt, and he wins it.

As to Nickal vs Craig, I think they have made this fight only because both are great at "hugging" Cheesy

Craig has name, he would be a nice boost for Nickal. Craig is about to get kicked from UFC imho. So they try to kill 2 rabbits with 1 shot, get maximum out of Craig.

pawel7777

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Somehow I missed the UFC 309 announcement.
Everything has been said about Jones Vs Stipe, so nothing to add here, bur Oliveira Vs Chandler looks like a decent match-up and has a lot of entertainment potential.
Odds: Oliveira: x1.38, Chandler: x3.05, pretty much what I would expect. I don't give Chandler much chance, even in his prime he wouldn't be on Chales' level, but he's 38 now and last fought two years ago. He should still be able to put up a good show.

Bo Nickal got paired up with Paul Craig. It doesn't look like a massive challenge for Bo, Paul has lost 4 out of his last 5 fights, but at least he knows his ground game, 76% of his wins were by submission (he's 17-8). Bookies don't have much faith in Paul though. He's x6.75 and Bo is x1.11.

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Quote from: TopTort777 on September 24, 2024, 02:29:10 AM

It would not be a miracle if after Bones retirement, UFC all of a sudden consider to change something in their rules policy Cheesy

Damn, that UFC 309 main event, Bones vs Miocic is going to be so boring. First comes after a 1.5 year pause, other fought 4 years ago last time and is already in age. I am sure UFC is going to charge a lot of money for a ticket for a main event, that is not going to last more than 1-3 minutes.

I don't know what Uncle Dana was thinking. I mean if you want to establish Jones as the best in the heavyweight division or even number 1 P4P then Jones should fight Aspinall or an elite heavyweight fighter right now. Yes Miocic is the GOAT in the heavyweight division because of his title defense record. But the reality is he is old and hasn't fought in a long time. I think his fighting spirit has faded. Jones said it's a Goat vs Goat fight to see who the real Goat is. It seems like Jones knows he can win the fight easily. I will bet on Jones to win and my decision will remain the same until fight day.

TopTort777

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Quote from: tokeweed on September 26, 2024, 07:23:52 AM

Yeah... Cannonier is just getting old now. He can't keep cutting all that weight to 185 and have 5 whole rounds of cardio. He used to fight at HW, then LHW, then decided to really slim down and fight at 185 lbs. Cheesy

Have you watched the movie The Curious Case of Jared Cannonier ? Cheesy

Usually fighters and people gain weight with time. Jared has chosen different path. And from that change of division nothing good usually comes out. Because you either cut a lot and that is bad, or gain to fit (which is stupid, as others cut to fit, and on a fight day you fight against a more massive guy).

And this is him in the end of his career as a flyweight.

tokeweed

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^ Whittaker at 2.65 is def the value side. As you guys already know, Chim doesn't really fight all the good against the top guys. Couple that with Whttaker as an underdog, it's a no brainer. That chin worries me tho.

Early lines can be found at Fightodds in case you guys are wondering...

https://fightodds.io/odds/5611/ufc-308-topuria-vs-holloway

Quote from: TopTort777 on September 25, 2024, 07:33:19 AM

Yeap, strange to see Allen has such an odd. In fact, I though he is going to win. Allen has been showing a more stable performance than Imavov. In fact, in last fight, before the fourth round and a TKO, Imavov was loosing the fight based on score cards info (even though it was a split decision). The fight before that, 1 point deduction. Fight before that, head clash. Now look on Allen - choking guys from behind since 2022 without a fail Cheesy

Just because Imavov is higher in rating, his is more favourite?

Yeah... Cannonier is just getting old now. He can't keep cutting all that weight to 185 and have 5 whole rounds of cardio. He used to fight at HW, then LHW, then decided to really slim down and fight at 185 lbs. Cheesy

Here's a vid of Brito vs Pearce. I think I had a bet on Pearce in this fight. Cheesy

UFC Brasil Free Fight: Brito vs Pearce
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j58aMybTrB8

TopTort777

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Yeap, Whittaker is going to be my selection. All he needs to do is to avoid close combat in first rounds, so that Chimaev wont jump for a takedown. In striking, Whittaker is much better. And he has good skills to counter Chimaev wrestling. Imho weight cutting will be Whittaker advantage also. Never heard he had any troubles. But those mountain guys (Dagestani, Chechen and etc) always have problems with it, and cutting is more complicated part for them is, than fighting.

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Quote from: TopTort777 on September 20, 2024, 01:26:11 AM

No disrespect to Chimaev, but remember his performance against Burns? Even though he won, it was a really hard fight for him. Remember fight against Usman. Usman can be considered as close to old right now, add that he has those knee problems all the time. Went on a 10 day notice against Chimaev and lost only due to majority decision (when it should be UD or Chimaev should have submitted him). Whittakers striking is better than Burns, who gave a nice beating to Chimaev. Whittakers cardio is great (look at how many 3 or 5 rounds fights he had). Whittakers last opponent, Aliskerov, is a small copy of Chimaev (if we talk about wrestling and all that Dagestani stuff) Cheesy

Got KOed in first round. Whittakers wrestling is on a good level (won 2 times against Romero, who has got numerous gold medals and silver on Olympics).

Put on scales all Whittaker skills, and Chimaev disadvantages, and I think that the scales will lean on Roberts side.

Will you be betting on Whittaker then? He's an underdog, so if you truly believe he's the favourite, there are some decent odds to grab. I wouldn't recommend it though.

Many are criticising Chimaev for poor cardio, but you can't be looking only at the number of rounds and how tired a fighter appears to be without considering what he had actually done in the octagon.
It's not hard to look fresh and durable in a fight that lacks action.
In the Burns fight, Khamzat had almost 40% strikes more than Whittaker in his latest full 3-rounder against Costa. Khamzat also shot for 3 takedowns (2 successful) Vs one unsuccessful of Whittaker, and defended against 223 Burns' strikes Vs 151 strikes of Costa. All this drains much more energy.

If the fight goes to distance and the fighter doesn't look exhausted at the end, that only means he didn't give his 100%.

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Quote from: TopTort777 on September 25, 2024, 07:33:19 AM

Yeap, strange to see Allen has such an odd. In fact, I though he is going to win. Allen has been showing a more stable performance than Imavov. In fact, in last fight, before the fourth round and a TKO, Imavov was loosing the fight based on score cards info (even though it was a split decision). The fight before that, 1 point deduction. Fight before that, head clash. Now look on Allen - choking guys from behind since 2022 without a fail Cheesy

Just because Imavov is higher in rating, his is more favourite?

What they are saying was that both these guys fought Curtis and Brendan Allen struggled to win while Imavov, though it ended in NC, dominated Curtis and took him down several times Imanov won as well even in the standing exchange. This could just be a fair fight Allen is not really far from Cannonier or Vettori's rank in MW.

Quote from: OgNasty on September 25, 2024, 07:53:14 AM

I feel like it’s a bad time to be a casual UFC fan. Suga lost, Connor is nowhere to be found when it comes to actually fighting in the UFC, and all the other names we’ve come to grow and love are being replaced with Russian fighters. We pretty much just have Paddy the Baddy left, who is struggling to get a shot at a title fight.

I guess Dana is right about taking over Boxing.
But didn't Dana mention that Jon Jones is the best P4P fighter in the world? Grin

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I feel like it’s a bad time to be a casual UFC fan. Suga lost, Connor is nowhere to be found when it comes to actually fighting in the UFC, and all the other names we’ve come to grow and love are being replaced with Russian fighters. We pretty much just have Paddy the Baddy left, who is struggling to get a shot at a title fight.

TopTort777

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Yeap, strange to see Allen has such an odd. In fact, I though he is going to win. Allen has been showing a more stable performance than Imavov. In fact, in last fight, before the fourth round and a TKO, Imavov was loosing the fight based on score cards info (even though it was a split decision). The fight before that, 1 point deduction. Fight before that, head clash. Now look on Allen - choking guys from behind since 2022 without a fail Cheesy

Just because Imavov is higher in rating, his is more favourite?

tokeweed

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^ He may complain a lot but I doubt he's a 'sissy'. He fights in a cage for a living ffs... And I just want to watch a good fight between Rountree and Periera.

Here are the replays

UFC Free Fight: Imavov vs Cannonier
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-M33sDf7og

UFC Free Fight: Allen vs Curtis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_SlOqjbKTA

I'm not really sure why Allen is lined at 2.75 here. I don't think Imavov fought a guy who could wrestle and grapple before except for Phil Hawes.

Topic: The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 24. (Read 99538 times)