Topic: The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 30. (Read 93733 times)

Watching the analysis, the houses trusts Makhachev can neutralize Poirier to the floor, that's what they see. Poirier pulling this upset will be a good profit.

Isn't it a good strategy to bet $20 for Makhachev 1.93 by submission and then on the other hand bet just $5 in case Poirier wins?  Just curious how you can make this situation beneficial.

Am I the only on who noticed odds on Makhachev vs Poirier fight and find them unfair towards Poirier? Duelbits gives 1.17 Makhachev and 5.00 Poirier. How come top #4 have so high odds, like he is a debutant? I think bookies are little unfair this time. Poirier won previous fight via KO, fought rather good against Oliveira and Khabib (lost in last rounds only). Made Chandler tap. And his is 5.00. While he still has chances to land a nice punch on Makhachev.

P.S. Khabib is in Makhachevs camp this time, probably will be in his corner.

In addition:

1) Poirier was underdog in a fight against Saint Denis
2) Poirier managed to counter every Khabib attack and even closed guillotine.
3) Poirier stamina is better than Makhachev (example - Makhachev vs battle dwarf 1)
4) Makhachev never faced such a striker before. Makhachevs striking isnt perfect as many think (example - again Makhachev vs battle dwarf first fight. Look how many times Gimli connected).
5) Makhachev isnt Khabib who dodge every striking attack by jumping back. Makhachev can go in exchange with Poirier. But, where Makhachev connect one punch, Poirier unload series.

Anyway, I would call it as a total mismatch as it looks on the paper. If Poirier managed to counter takedowns with guillotine or evade them, in late round he could surprise us this weekend. As this is probably going to be his last chance to win belt, he will be risking maximum (and if we look on his record, then 50% of his wins are by KO, he will risk definitely). He wont let judges decide who won. It is either Makhachev choke him in second round, or Poirier will knock him out in second half of the fight.

You know, everyone in the world right now are a little crazy about young talents, there is no doubt that this guy is talented.
But I somewhat agreed that properly they are hyping the kid a little too much.

I do not like this. Because a lot of times I have seen so many fighters and athletes actually not be able to continue performing well or stay disciplined just because they have got a little too much pain in a very short period of time. You do not appreciate or understand the value of the thing that comes easily or quickly, that is human nature. it’s why a lot of fighters actually do not know what to do with the unfathomable fame that they have.

Obviously, I hope it turns out well for him. And may he be able to have a good career in the UFC. but I understand why UFC is doing this. After all, they are trying to find a mouth that can replace Connor McGregor. But I also sometimes doubt that this is the approach they are taking with him already

^  The guy isn't really tested apart from his debut in the UFC.  But his last win vs Yusuff was decent since Yusuff is regarded as one of the better prospects.  Not sure what happened to him after his injury tho.  He's still strong but I think coming back after a one year lay off vs Barboza for a 5 rounder is bad match making.  The UFC should've give him an opponent lower in the pecking order to get him acclimated in the cage.  And giving him Lopes after a tough loss Barboza is just dumb imho.


So you saying that the UFC isn't making good fights and that something should change?


Uh lol...  I'm pretty sure this Inoue guy will make the MMA guys who has almost no wrestling in their game look like Daniel Cormier. 

Can someone explain hype around Diego Lopes? It is clear that the kid is talented. But he has got only 4 fights in UFC, but I often see him giving interviews or flashing somewhere. By the look on his record, he can both do striking and submitting people. But that is the level of non UFC. He fought Evloev (#5 among featherweight) on a 5-day notice, and in every round Evloev was saved by bell from being submitted. Impressive, but that is pretty much it. However, he is on #14 now.

In the UFC, when you generate a lot of clicks and views, you end up having a moral compass with the boss and being able to choose fights. I don't know how it works in boxing, but in the UFC they seem to choose which fights they want to fight and that creates, for me, cartels that aren't reality. Let's say that 20% of all the undefeated cartels are false.

Yes he can win by KO or TKO for sure, or even by a kimura or an armbar submission and if you had bet on a victory by rear naked choke submission you would lose your bet despite his nice victory, you might feel wronged, but that's how it is. Betting on how he will win is just not the same thing as betting if he will win or not. So if you don't feel comfortable with betting on his precise winning method, we could just bet on a victory by choke. It means Islam would have to win the fight and to get his victory by submitting his opponent with a choke. But any kind of choking technique would be ok and not only the rear naked one.  
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chokehold#Types

^
Let's say Inoue fights anyone on the list using the UFC gloves, those guys will stumble to stand up with just a jab from Inoue. As long as he can defend himself from a takedown, it will be hellish for these guys. They could potentially win by submission but not if they stand head-to-head. To believe themselves to win in standing, they have the slightest chance.

Its like Kamaru Usman picking Jan Blachowicz https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1793649032595706220
And then Jan replied to him If you still feel the same about it @USMAN84kg, let’s go. I will be ready.

I think Kamaru is really up to it since he seems to have no fight at all, he is going LHW. But he has the slight chance too.

^  So I looked him up and he fights at boxing's 122 lbs weight class.  That's flyweight in the UFC which is up to 125 lbs..  And since we're just trying to make a point that the top fighters in boxing would have a hard time winning vs some if the top guys in the UFC within the same weigh class, then let's list the guys from the top 6 to 15 in UFC's flyweight...  

Muhammad Mokaev   
Manel Kape   
Matheus Nicolau   
Steve Erceg   
Tim Elliott   
Matt Schnell   
Tagir Ulanbekov   
Tatsuro Taira   
Sumudaerji   
David Dvorak   

Out the guys in the list, I think Inoue could prolly win vs three of them...  Matt Schnell, Sumudaerji and Dvorack.  But then again with the wrestling, the hard leg kicks and the BJJ...  Dunno.  It's prolly zero.

Inoue vs striker.

But I don't think a boxer will put himself in a situation where rules are going to be unfavorable to him. Rodtang hardly earn points in the first round with DJdespite the modified rules is favorable to him.

Rules matter. Even in a boxer vs boxer fight, the rules can be utilized to put a boxer out of action. Ryan Garcia did this to Devin Haney as he turned his body sideways. If Ryan was fighting in UFC, his opponent would jump right on his back for a rare naked choke.

Maybe but I could say that staying undefeated in the UFC is waaay harder than staying undefeated in boxing.  There's just a lot more going on in MMA as fighters have to study and practice multiple disciplines.  Boxing on the other handis just boxing.  Lol.   And I know the next question would be then why do MMA fighters lose when they fight boxers in boxing?  Ok if they're so good at fighting then why don't the top boxers fight in MMA?  A top 15 UFC fighter would win vs a top boxer 7 times out of 10 in MMA imho.  And that's being generous.  

Name a great boxer right now and I'll name an MMA fighter outside the top 5 who I think could win.

I would understand if those undefeated boxers would be from local promotions and etc. We have MMA fighters with same undefeated record built in jungle-pride-mma-buffalo-texas-fc. But when I look into WBO, WBA and etc, and I see that top five guys are undefeated or have 1 loss, that makes me feel curious how this is possible. Imagine we get a lightweight UFC top Makhachev 18-0, Tsarukyan 15-0, Oliveira 30-0, Gaethji 25-0 and Poirier 30-1. That is just impossible.

Hehehehehe I did not expect for you to see this heehehhee.



However, I cannot be very certain how much odds I can propose to you because there are many types of submission technics in mixed martial arts. The rear naked choke is only one of them. If I propose something, you might tell me that I am being unfair. Also, Islam can also win with a knockout punch or a technical knockout.

It appears that I cannot be brave for you hehehehe.

I don't understand either, but the fact that he lives in the past is true. In my view, McGregor attracts more audiences than Jones. Jones is a great fighter, but for a while now he hasn't done anything relevant in my view, for me he's a top 10 fighter, at most top 5.

Boxing is a sport that has been going on with its organizations for many years, now some things are certain, they simply bring some fighters to the top and take them to the top. I always question it, too, when I watch boxing matches and follow them, regardless of the weight, I look at the Win and Loose ratio of the guy, he has almost no defeats, some of them are not competitive at all and it is obvious from the numbers that it is ridiculous. I don't think this will change in boxing. The situation is completely different in MMA organizations, for example, in the fights of organizations such as UFC, Bellator or One FC, the name at the top can only stay at the top for a certain period of time, regardless of the weight, and new names are always coming that can take it from the top, and this is the best part.

But he does want to fight. That's the point. It's easy to get distracted with social-media dramas (leaked DMs etc), but as far as we know, he agreed to fight Stipe, which is something that UFC wants him to do.
To be fair, when the Jones Vs Stipe was first announced, that match wasn't all that bad. There weren't that many better options (with Ngannou leaving and Aspinall was still climbing to the top).
The main problem was they weren't in a rush to make that fight. Jones fought Gane in March 2023, they announced the Stipe fight in July 2023 and the date was set for Nov 2023. And then the injury happened.
Whether everything took so long because Jones was stalling, or was it the fault of the UFC - I don't know. But if they haven't stripped him of the belt back then, then stripping him now when he's injured and has an agreed fight makes little sense.
Lets give him a bit time.

I watched a few classic fights last night on YouTube and I’ve got to say that the Khamzat vs Burns fight has to be one of my favorite UFC fights of all time. Those guys were really hammering each other. No spectacular knockouts like Conor’s prime fights, but seeing two warriors face off like that is definitely worth a rewatch.

Floyd cares so much about undefeated. Same with Jones. Legacy I suppose and when a fighter retires undefeated, they have the opportunity to promote products while they can brag about the undefeated record. Tyson Fury used to brag about it.  Being undefeated means marketable.

MMA is very different though. You can only be the best when you have all the skills from boxing, jujitsu, wrestling, and all sorts which is why if the match team is going to test a striker against someone who has wrestling skills chances are that the striker will be at the disadvantage unless he learns fast with his team. boxing is just boxing. but some of them are just decorating themselves with KOs even the fights in their amateur days like 8 rounder fights.

^  Yeah cos most of them like fighting cans instead of the best guys.  In the UFC, Bellator, PFL, ONE, etc, etc that can't happen as they have the match makers doing it for them. Not really sure how the match making works in boxing tho.  But when I used to watch it, all I watch is the main event as most of the under cards suck.  And what I don't like about boxing is they put too much of a premium in unblemished records.  I mean who cares if the fighter is undefeated...  In MMA, that only means that the fighter hasn't really been tested yet.

I've got some things to discuss

Ever wondered why in boxing there are so many guys with 0 losses? That is always confuses me. I would accept if there are boxers who fight only weak opponents and build records. But if look on any organization top ranking, among top5 or top10, there are a lot of guys with 20-30 wins, and only 0 or 1 loss. Or how come it be that a on first 5 places of top there are guys with 20-0, 22-0, 18-0, 21-0 records. Now look on UFC top. It is a really rare case, if a division champion, or someone in top5 has no losses at all. When in boxing those undefeated boxers are in every weight division. Somehow this is an absurd. Either there cant be so many professionals with 0 losses, or boxing record has less value than MMA record (for example), or boxers are afraid to fight against similar undefeated guys. Cant imagine if there would be a champion that will fight only weak opponents and refuses to tops just because he dont want to lose that 0 in losses.