Here are the winning chance of each team to become a champion in the next season:
60% for Real Madrid
39% for Manchester City
1% for Arsenal, Inter, Milan, Barcelona, PSG, Bayern Munich, Leverkusen etc.
Real Madrid without Mbappe can still become a champion in this season, so it's no doubt majority of people will believe in Real Madrid.
With the new format available, the 2024/2025 season will be even more challenging. Those of us who are fans of the European Champions League certainly understand the new format regarding what is new and what is still the same as the previous format.
If in the 2023/24 season Real Madrid is the winner, in the 2024/25 season it is not certain that Real Madrid will have a large percentage as a team that has the opportunity to win the title.
Apart from Real Madrid and Manchester City, 34 other teams are ready to do their best. Of course not all, but several teams from well-known leagues will be the teams that will thwart the dominance of Real Madrid and Manchester City.
Mbappe's effect will not necessarily ensure that Madrid has a great chance even this season of winning its 15th title without Mbappe.