US Presidential Election 2020 | Bitcointalksearch.org

mindrust

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Quote from: AnatanVS on September 27, 2020, 02:20:05 AM

Quote from: pakhitheboss on September 26, 2020, 11:48:34 PM

It is only after the Presidential debate that we will know the odds at the moment. I personally think Biden has more chance than trump because of this policies during the pandemic but I will wait for his answers at the debate.

One thing surprises me about this election. Both candidates even before the election question whether they will be held fairly. It's as if they are preparing in advance not to recognize the election if the opponent wins. Trump, for example, speaks very negatively about the conduct of part of the vote by mail.
I like trump, he is a strong-willed leader and has made many good steps for American business. I think he will win this election.

Donald is funny, Donald is entertaining. And good entertainment always win especially in America where movie stars can become governors, presidents.

Biden is just a creepy old man who loves to smell women. Grin

Can't blame him though... who doesn't?

Donald just grabs them.

AnatanVS

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Quote from: pakhitheboss on September 26, 2020, 11:48:34 PM

It is only after the Presidential debate that we will know the odds at the moment. I personally think Biden has more chance than trump because of this policies during the pandemic but I will wait for his answers at the debate.

One thing surprises me about this election. Both candidates even before the election question whether they will be held fairly. It's as if they are preparing in advance not to recognize the election if the opponent wins. Trump, for example, speaks very negatively about the conduct of part of the vote by mail.
I like trump, he is a strong-willed leader and has made many good steps for American business. I think he will win this election.

reliable

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The chances of Trump to win 2020 USA presidential election is very slightly. So many oligarchy is up against him.
Trump has a better plan to make America great again but will it be possible as acclaimed?
Just hope and believe that Trump will come out victorious cos the fight and battle at hand will not be an easy one

Lats election as well I guess many thought it would be Hilary making it but, in the end, result just came otherwise and people were shocked seeing Trump making it. This time as well it would not be an easy cakewalk for any of them and will have a tough competition between both the parties.

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Quote from: notblox1 on September 25, 2020, 09:10:02 AM

I don't see any 'huge' advantage for Biden here, and also I don't see any advantage for Trump if we look at betting odds here: https://bitedge.com/odds-comparisons/us-presidential-election/
Please wait for presidential debate that is going to happen in few days, and then make make your decision.
Like Joe Rogan said recently, let's just not pretend that Biden cognitive decline does not exist please:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-X5-kZuBn6U

It is only after the Presidential debate that we will know the odds at the moment. I personally think Biden has more chance than trump because of this policies during the pandemic but I will wait for his answers at the debate.

tyKiwanuka

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#birdgang

I will lock this thread for some time, since 95% of the posts are more general chit-chat about the election and not betting related. I know this goes hand in hand to some extent, but I can't remember the last time some odds or other betting stuff was discussed/analyzed.

You can discuss the election in the Politics & Society board in the meantime. There are lots of threads about Trump, Biden and the election, which are not about betting on the outcome.

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Quote from: Tipstar on September 25, 2020, 02:56:18 PM

It's getting as unpredictable as a coin roll. Trump is an absurd person. He's stupid but he knows what's good for the country, though his execution maybe bad, he is pure by heart.
Biden on the other hand is a good politician, and I assume he has no vested interest for his own. But he is surrounded by criminals and oligarchs who would sell of their own citizen's lives for money. Democrats would sound better on debates, they know how to fool people using media.

Congratulation, you can contradict yourself in one sentence. This is doesn't matter too much - democrats or republicans. Trump will be a little better for business, maybe. ANd Biden will stop this BLM riots. So this is the end of difference (in my view, without too much words).

I remember 2016 when many people were highly surprised and scared about Trump winning of election. What changed? Not too much (even trading war with China would be started with Trump or without him, because this is the interest of USA, not one person)

Tipstar

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Quote from: notblox1 on September 25, 2020, 09:10:02 AM

I don't see any 'huge' advantage for Biden here, and also I don't see any advantage for Trump if we look at betting odds here: https://bitedge.com/odds-comparisons/us-presidential-election/
Please wait for presidential debate that is going to happen in few days, and then make make your decision.
Like Joe Rogan said recently, let's just not pretend that Biden cognitive decline does not exist please:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-X5-kZuBn6U

It's getting as unpredictable as a coin roll. Trump is an absurd person. He's stupid but he knows what's good for the country, though his execution maybe bad, he is pure by heart.
Biden on the other hand is a good politician, and I assume he has no vested interest for his own. But he is surrounded by criminals and oligarchs who would sell of their own citizen's lives for money. Democrats would sound better on debates, they know how to fool people using media.

notblox1

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I don't see any 'huge' advantage for Biden here, and also I don't see any advantage for Trump if we look at betting odds here: https://bitedge.com/odds-comparisons/us-presidential-election/
Please wait for presidential debate that is going to happen in few days, and then make make your decision.
Like Joe Rogan said recently, let's just not pretend that Biden cognitive decline does not exist please:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-X5-kZuBn6U

bryant.coleman

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on September 24, 2020, 10:08:16 PM

@bryant.coleman. I do not agree. The betting market odds is the more accurate indicator because the betting whales would have bet heavily on Biden already if the figure for fivethirtyeight was accurate.

The betting markets are controlled by the whales. This is not only a group of casual bettors who are chasing a lucky win on Trump.

What I was saying is that opinion polls are more accurate than betting odds. While calculating betting odds, a lot of assumptions are being made, which may not get realized. For Trump to win this election, he needs to win at least the following swing states:

1. Ohio
2. North Carolina
3. Florida
4. Arizona
5. Pensylvania

He can afford to lose other swing states such as Wisconsin, Nevada and Michigan. But the problem here is that while he may be having a fighting chance in NC and FL, he is too far behind in AZ and PA.

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@bryant.coleman. I do not agree. The betting market odds is the more accurate indicator because the betting whales would have bet heavily on Biden already if the figure for fivethirtyeight was accurate.

The betting markets are controlled by the whales. This is not only a group of casual bettors who are chasing a lucky win on Trump.

bryant.coleman

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^^^ The figure from fivethirtyeight looks like the most trustworthy one. Biden is clearly having a huge advantage at this point of time. Betting market odds are better for Trump, because a lot of people are betting in his favor. His higher odds are not because Trump is having a higher probability, but because of the numerical superiority who "believes" that he'll win the elections. Therefore IMO, Trump's chances are around 10% to 20% at this point.

bbc.reporter

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Which percentage is the most believable? I am quite certain the pollsters and media groups doing their polls have their own motives or might also be corrupted by the side that pays more hehe.

The betting market is the most impartial, however, short of including the silent majority on the odds.

Chance of Trump being re-elected? Latest forecasts:
6%
@LeanTossup

14%
@TheEconomist

18%
@DecisionDeskHQ

20%
@NewStatesman

23%
@FiveThirtyEight

Betting markets: Around 45%

Source https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/1308043486537580544?s=12

bryant.coleman

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Quote from: erikoy on September 22, 2020, 10:45:21 PM

Do really India had bad system for conducting election? or the vote buying that happen? Mostly in third world countries vote buying is very rampant that people loves too get despite they know that if the candidate win by vote buying it will reflect on them by bad services to be made making the candidates get his spenditures during the election vote buying. This is very sad attitude of the people willing to risk the true essense of voting and influence by vote buying. If you are vote buying candidate then people will look at you as a good candidate.

I was talking about the system of appointing the judges and not about the elections. I mentioned India because I am a regular visitor to that country. I would say that they have the worst system possible. Judges are promoted on the basis of family ties, with seniority taking a second place. Most of the judges in the supreme court are sons or daughters of former judges.

A number of judges were accused in corruption scandals, with lots and lots of proof. But no action could be taken against them, as a result of judicial immunity. A well known former CJI apparently received around $30 million bribe from the Catholic church, to turn down narcoanalysis results in Sister Abhaya murder case. This judge made the ruling that narco analysis can't be considered as evidence. Another CJI demanded a $60 million bribe from a chief minister of one of the northeastern states. The CM committed suicide later, and in the suicide letter he claimed that the unrelenting demands for bribe from the CJI pushed him towards this drastic step. And once again, no action was taken against the judge. What they have in the US is much better than this sham.

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Quote from: bryant.coleman on September 22, 2020, 10:38:44 PM

The judges can't take decisions as per their liking. They are supposed to follow the constitution and the penal code. And I believe that the system they have in the United States is much better than the one that exists in some of the other countries such as India. At least in the United States, corruption allegations against judges are very rare, since they are being held accountable.

Do really India had bad system for conducting election? or the vote buying that happen? Mostly in third world countries vote buying is very rampant that people loves too get despite they know that if the candidate win by vote buying it will reflect on them by bad services to be made making the candidates get his spenditures during the election vote buying. This is very sad attitude of the people willing to risk the true essense of voting and influence by vote buying. If you are vote buying candidate then people will look at you as a good candidate.

bryant.coleman

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Quote from: Cnut237 on September 22, 2020, 04:46:51 AM

Quote from: bryant.coleman on September 22, 2020, 12:38:36 AM

Most of the so called "right-wing" judges are constitutionalist. That means that they make their judgements based on the constitution. On the other hand, the left-wing judges regularly disregard the constitution and make judgements by interpreting the laws in a way which suits them.

I don't really want to get into the left/right bad/good argument... but regardless of one's political leanings, I'd say that if a certain party really wants a certain judge to be appointed, then it's most likely because they want judgements that they agree with... so it erodes impartiality whichever party is pushing for the appointment.

The judges can't take decisions as per their liking. They are supposed to follow the constitution and the penal code. And I believe that the system they have in the United States is much better than the one that exists in some of the other countries such as India. At least in the United States, corruption allegations against judges are very rare, since they are being held accountable.

Vishnu.Reang

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Quote from: Debonaire217 on September 22, 2020, 04:09:36 AM

I have read some articles and I found out that the founder of Tether, which is Brock Pierce is also a candidate for the US election. Thus, it just come up to my mind if this could affect the cryptocurrency as a whole since most of the crypto enthusiasts right now is holding tether because of the price decline of most of the cryptocurrencies.

In the US, they have a two-party system and these minor party candidates doesn't matter much. They get hardly any media coverage and their votes in most cases doesn't have any impact on the results. Even John McAfee was planning to run for the POTUS 2020 elections, but now it looks like he has cancelled his plans. The candidacy of Pierce may result in some media coverage, but don't expect much.

Cnut237

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Quote from: bryant.coleman on September 22, 2020, 12:38:36 AM

Most of the so called "right-wing" judges are constitutionalist. That means that they make their judgements based on the constitution. On the other hand, the left-wing judges regularly disregard the constitution and make judgements by interpreting the laws in a way which suits them.

I don't really want to get into the left/right bad/good argument... but regardless of one's political leanings, I'd say that if a certain party really wants a certain judge to be appointed, then it's most likely because they want judgements that they agree with... so it erodes impartiality whichever party is pushing for the appointment.

Debonaire217

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I have read some articles and I found out that the founder of Tether, which is Brock Pierce is also a candidate for the US election. Thus, it just come up to my mind if this could affect the cryptocurrency as a whole since most of the crypto enthusiasts right now is holding tether because of the price decline of most of the cryptocurrencies.

bryant.coleman

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Quote from: Cnut237 on September 21, 2020, 07:17:21 AM

There's not even a pretence of judicial impartiality here. If a certain party is desperate to appoint a certain judge - this goes for left as well as right - then the expectation is that that judge will make decisions based in large part on political leanings rather than on what the law actually states. I appreciate that laws are complex, nuanced and sometimes subjective and contradictory, but there shouldn't be attempts by politicians to introduce bias that works in their own favour. If you're going to do that, then why bother having judges at all? This is certainly not just a US problem, it happens all over the place. It's rare that you can find a country where the ruling party don't try to introduce unfairness that benefits themselves.

Most of the so called "right-wing" judges are constitutionalist. That means that they make their judgements based on the constitution. On the other hand, the left-wing judges regularly disregard the constitution and make judgements by interpreting the laws in a way which suits them. There is bias in the judiciary, but this was started by the Democrats and their left-wing judges. Ruth Bader Ginsburg is the perfect example of an extremely biased judge. She was the one of those judges who made the landmark decision in Kennedy v. Louisiana, which spared death penalty for a monster (Patrick O'Neal Kennedy) who raped and nearly killed a 8-year old child.

Cnut237

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There's not even a pretence of judicial impartiality here. If a certain party is desperate to appoint a certain judge - this goes for left as well as right - then the expectation is that that judge will make decisions based in large part on political leanings rather than on what the law actually states. I appreciate that laws are complex, nuanced and sometimes subjective and contradictory, but there shouldn't be attempts by politicians to introduce bias that works in their own favour. If you're going to do that, then why bother having judges at all? This is certainly not just a US problem, it happens all over the place. It's rare that you can find a country where the ruling party don't try to introduce unfairness that benefits themselves.

Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 (Read 6260 times)