US Presidential Election 2020 - page 9.

bitbunnny

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Quote from: perfect999 on August 05, 2020, 11:29:10 AM

Plus when you do mail in voting, you do not have to spend time at all, you just get the mail, you put on your vote, you leave it at the place and you are done, you can do this inside of weeks and weeks.

However if you want to vote in person, you have to wait in lines for hours and hours and you have to actually be there and you have to maybe take that day off from work if you can even do that, so basically it takes a ton of stuff to actually do it, who would really want to do something like that when you can simply just mail your vote without having to worry about none of that. That is the reason why Trump hates it, if they allow mail voting everywhere around the USA and make it super easy, republicans would never win a single more election, there would be only centrist democrats vs progressive democrats.

On of the solutions could be electronic voting system. Some countries in the world already have it (like Estonia) and its functioning well. The chances for misuse are minimal and everything is very fast and convenient for citizens. But I guess Trump wouldn't like that way of voting either.

erikoy

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on August 07, 2020, 05:48:10 AM

Quote from: STT on August 06, 2020, 07:51:49 PM

I just put something down on Biden at 2.23 (...)

In which place is Biden still 2.23 ? That would be a nice little surebet of around 20+%.

I think 2.60 is about fair at this point, but will be good value in November. Catching the peak is very difficult, so I would always keep some powder dry and stake in portions. Starting from September 29th, I expect the odds to go down (from whereever they are at this point then).

yeah that was quite a little bit strategic on your part for betting like that. But if you wanted to earn huge then you must take chances as early as now to get huge return but mind you it is more risky than the strategy you are improvising right now. Well good luck on your betting here. I must say you had one good chance to get return. And probably I will also going to try the same thing on your betting strategy. LOL. Is there any chance you can update when you bet so that I can see how it will going to be done?

tyKiwanuka

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Quote from: STT on August 06, 2020, 07:51:49 PM

I just put something down on Biden at 2.23 (...)

In which place is Biden still 2.23 ? That would be a nice little surebet of around 20+%.

I think 2.60 is about fair at this point, but will be good value in November. Catching the peak is very difficult, so I would always keep some powder dry and stake in portions. Starting from September 29th, I expect the odds to go down (from whereever they are at this point then).

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: johhnyUA on August 06, 2020, 06:41:18 PM

Odds for Trump is enough high, isn't it, figmentofmyass? Or it will be better to wait and try to get something higher 3+ ?

why me? i'm no expert. Tongue

another run to 2.9-3 seems possible, but certainly not guaranteed. i don't think we'll get any better than that. i think the current odds are pretty good value, considering the fact that i still consider trump a slight favorite and definitely no worse than 50-50.

bbc.reporter

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@STT. It might be better to wait. Trump odds went to 4.50 on 2016 that was 2 days before the election day. We will certainly witness something similar on November. The results will also be similar or it might be something shocking. A landslide for Trump hehehe.

STT

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Trump at 2.65 is too good, I would be tempted there. I just put something down on Biden at 2.23 and that seems a fair bet considering the chaos seems to be ongoing. Just as a trend if I thought Trump had screwed up but was improving somehow then that'd be the bet but it seems to be a continual tumble, its hard to understand how its a win. Of course its the contrast between the two.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kanye-is-e2-80-98walking-e2-80-99-not-running-for-president-campaign-update/ar-BB17DO2w

Also saw this story on split vote which whether its intentional or not, its definitely a thing and again we repeat events of 100 years ago.

johhnyUA

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Our books gives such odds for USA elections:

Democrats - 1.45
Republicans - 2.60

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Trump - 2.65
Biden - 1.5

https://parimatch.com/sport/politika/ssha

Odds for Trump is enough high, isn't it, figmentofmyass? Or it will be better to wait and try to get something higher 3+ ?

wiss19

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With all of this riots and all of this Axios meeting and Trump not taking a single bit of responsibility and all of this people with guns storming the protestors and all that, I am pretty sure this is not like the last elections at all.

You can find similarities about how people were saying "Hillary would definitely win, trump is an idiot" and now saying the same thing but just with Biden, but this time around we have seen 4 years of trump and dude is not only an idiot, he is a willing evil who could let people die and killed off just because they are blue or he could just tell how much he likes a racist person who has done nothing while also saying bad stuff about a person of colour who has done so much for the world.

Anyone who doesn't praise him suddenly becomes a bad person. It is really not a way USA could continue, this is vital importance that buffoon needs to be sent into jail right after elections are over and he gives up power.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on August 04, 2020, 02:15:12 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 03, 2020, 10:41:10 PM

@alani123. Mail in ballots is another method to cheat easily for the incumbent because it controls the biggest political machinery. Trump might be saying he does not like it for Democratic states to allow it hehehe.

LOL.. Anyone remember the 2008 United States Senate election in Minnesota? That one is perhaps the prime example of an election stolen through the usage of mail in ballots. After the initial count, the GOP candidate (Norm Coleman) was leading by a few hundred votes. But then the Democrats started finding stacks of mail-in ballots (obviously all of them marked for their candidate Al Franken) in various places such as municipal thrash boxes, public toilets, bus stops.etc. In the end, Franken was declared the winner by around 300 votes (around 0.01%).

I reckon Trump's election team are geniuses. Blame the enemy for what you are planning to do hehehe. They know anything Trump wants, the Democrats will want the other side.

In any case, another delay for the declaration on Biden's vice president. Why is there a delay? Susan Rice hehehe?

@figmentofmyass. Trump voters are not unpredictable because you know they will vote for Trump. The silent majority is unpredictable and also the patriotic liberals who want peace and order and to make America great again.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: STT on August 05, 2020, 03:42:37 PM

However a long time accurate predictor says Trump will lose out here, he predicted for Trump in 2016 and similarly accurate back to Reagan era:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/05/opinion/2020-election-prediction-allan-lichtman.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

that's a pretty interesting counterpoint to "the primary model" which has performed impeccably well for the last century and heavily favors trump:

Quote from: bbc.reporter on July 22, 2020, 04:22:15 AM

Trump has 91% chance of re-election, according to model that got 25 of the last 27 elections right
The political science professor predicts Trump will have an even larger win in 2020 than his 2016 victory.

A political science professor is asserting that President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in November against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth made this political forecast by using the "Primary Model," an election prediction model that has a proven track record, including accurately predicting five out of the last six elections.

"The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November," Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

Source https://www.theblaze.com/news/trump-win-2020-election-prediction-model

like i've said before, it's hard to view this election as much different than a coin flip, give or take 10% chance or so.

trump voters are unpredictable.

STT

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In person voting does favour the rich and those with time to spare, anyone working one job or multiple jobs doesnt have the luxury of voting always unfortunately. Easy for me to confirm because Ive been in that predicament. Seems like instead of all the arguments we knew would be pointless like the impeachment this simple idea of allowing mail in votes would have been a better and more influential fight to pick, might have even turned the tide.

Quote

increased turnout generally means higher votes for Democrats.

By that measure its a return to power for republicians in this vote because even with all the protests we didnt see new voters register. Maybe the lockdown helped to secure a low registration of new voters or stop any rising percentage of active voters. You have a more likely repeat of the last election when its just the same people who have got older since then, unless there is some significant change from last time its not especially reasonable to expect a different result.

However a long time accurate predictor says Trump will lose out here, he predicted for Trump in 2016 and similarly accurate back to Reagan era:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/05/opinion/2020-election-prediction-allan-lichtman.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

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perfect999

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Plus when you do mail in voting, you do not have to spend time at all, you just get the mail, you put on your vote, you leave it at the place and you are done, you can do this inside of weeks and weeks.

However if you want to vote in person, you have to wait in lines for hours and hours and you have to actually be there and you have to maybe take that day off from work if you can even do that, so basically it takes a ton of stuff to actually do it, who would really want to do something like that when you can simply just mail your vote without having to worry about none of that. That is the reason why Trump hates it, if they allow mail voting everywhere around the USA and make it super easy, republicans would never win a single more election, there would be only centrist democrats vs progressive democrats.

Cnut237

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The reason Trump is against mail in votes is because he thinks the process benefits Democrats. This is because the received wisdom is that mail in votes increase turnout, and increased turnout generally means higher votes for Democrats. Whether or not this is true is moot. Trump has shown little interest in legality or fairness throughout his presidency so far. Because he is so far behind in the polls, he tried to use this as an excuse to postpone the election and remain in power, as I suggested might happen a couple of weeks ago...

Quote from: Cnut237 on July 21, 2020, 03:35:36 PM

I would not be at all surprised if Biden wins the election, but Trump refuses to acknowledge defeat and just tries to brazen it out by declaring certain aspects invalid or fraudulent or unlawful - postal votes being an obvious possibility.

Now that has been ruled out, Trump still has it as an excuse to explain why he lost. Can you ever imagine Trump admitting that he's been beaten fairly in anything?

Vishnu.Reang

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 03, 2020, 10:41:10 PM

@alani123. Mail in ballots is another method to cheat easily for the incumbent because it controls the biggest political machinery. Trump might be saying he does not like it for Democratic states to allow it hehehe.

LOL.. Anyone remember the 2008 United States Senate election in Minnesota? That one is perhaps the prime example of an election stolen through the usage of mail in ballots. After the initial count, the GOP candidate (Norm Coleman) was leading by a few hundred votes. But then the Democrats started finding stacks of mail-in ballots (obviously all of them marked for their candidate Al Franken) in various places such as municipal thrash boxes, public toilets, bus stops.etc. In the end, Franken was declared the winner by around 300 votes (around 0.01%).

bbc.reporter

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@alani123. Mail in ballots is another method to cheat easily for the incumbent because it controls the biggest political machinery. Trump might be saying he does not like it for Democratic states to allow it hehehe.

alani123

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More states are bound to enable mail-in ballots and that should be especially worrying for Trump and the republican establishment.

First of all, it means that many old people that are bound to their homes will be able to vote. But it also means that many working class people will be able to vote in their off hours.
Funnily enough US is one of the countries that doesn't make voting day a holiday and many states offer little to no protection to those working if they want to vote.
Of course this is just speculation but I think Trump has been afraid of mail in ballots for reasons other than he's willing to show. And that's probably because more working class people would vote under this condition.

Cnut237

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Quote from: tyz on August 03, 2020, 06:08:04 AM

Of course the USA is a democracy with a president who certainly has more power than in other democracies, but there are mechanisms to limit the abuse of this power.

This is true to an extent, one person one vote, but there are two issues shared by most democracies that do tend to make them undemocratic.
One is that the number of elected representatives is not representative of the share of the vote, in a 'winner takes the whole state' system. Proportional representation would be far more democratic - if for example you get 46% of the vote, you get 46% of the representatives.
Two is that capitalist democracies are naturally controlled by those who have money and influence. An everyday citizen has one vote. A TV channel boss has one vote. Mark Zuckerberg has one vote. But obviously these people do not have the same influence on how other people vote.
Obviously there are other issues as well, but these two for starters suggest that democracies may not be truly democratic.

jaberwock

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Quote from: tyz on August 03, 2020, 06:08:04 AM

Why do you think the USA would be a dictatorship? I think you read too much propaganda. Of course the USA is a democracy with a president who certainly has more power than in other democracies, but there are mechanisms to limit the abuse of this power. This is shown by the fact that the Supreme Court has stopped some projects and laws. In addition, the Congress and the Senate are controlled by different parties, so that the president can not have any dictatorial power. Just like the plan to postpone the election. This is of course huge news for the gossip press but he can't do that without the approval of the democratic controlled senate.

Well, I specifically said that "USA is not a dictatorship" in my post... I don't know why you would think that I am saying it is when I am literally saying it is not. There are mechanisms that limits a presidents power but also there are ways those mechanisms could be overcome, have one party rule the congress, senate, presidency, the courts and supreme court, basically all the mechanisms and that party could do whatever they want and there would be no mechanism to stop it, yet in USA beuroracy is slow so that is a trick founding fathers put in there to make sure nobody makes any hasty move right even with a reaction to ruin everything and have time to sit and think about their moves.

Like I said, I do not believe that it is a dictatorship, now would Trump would want to be a dictator? Of course he would, he would LOVE to be one, but that is a big NO from USA.

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Quote from: jaberwock on August 02, 2020, 01:06:54 PM

The amazing and great part about Trump asking for elections to be postponed was the reaction from the conservatives, I loved it and that is why I think USA is not a dictatorship and could never be one.

Why do you think the USA would be a dictatorship? I think you read too much propaganda. Of course the USA is a democracy with a president who certainly has more power than in other democracies, but there are mechanisms to limit the abuse of this power. This is shown by the fact that the Supreme Court has stopped some projects and laws. In addition, the Congress and the Senate are controlled by different parties, so that the president can not have any dictatorial power. Just like the plan to postpone the election. This is of course huge news for the gossip press but he can't do that without the approval of the democratic controlled senate.

jaberwock

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The amazing and great part about Trump asking for elections to be postponed was the reaction from the conservatives, I loved it and that is why I think USA is not a dictatorship and could never be one. I am avid reddit user and always check what conservatives think there, not the trump followers or whatever, I just check conservatives which collide with a lot of trump supporters but have differences as well, just creates excuses because even if there was a cow nominated from republicans, there are many who will vote a cow over democrat candidate.

When trump said we should postpone it, even conservatives went mad, normally democrats hate trump for even breathing and I agree but when conservatives tell trump to shut up, that is when you understand it is a big trouble for him coming this election.

Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 9. (Read 6237 times)