In the end, it is turnout, which is going to matter.
Back in 2016, Hillary had a clear advantage over Trump on the election day. But not all of the Democrat voters turned up to vote. The same can happen this time as well. Opinion polls have found that more than half of those who intend to vote for Biden are going to prefer postal voting. It is not clear how many of them will be able to do that.
whatever everyone
thinks is gonna happen, probably won't. think about it. most americans expected hillary to win in 2016. most also expected republicans to hold the house in 2018. they were totally wrong on both counts.
now look at what is happening. no one at all is expecting a blowout biden victory like they did with hillary in 2016. in fact, everyone seems to be preparing for a trump victory. they think the polls are wrong and that the silent trump vote will be the determining factor.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/30/politics/trump-polling-analysis/index.htmlThe result of the 2016 outcome for this cycle is that the general public doesn't buy the polling showing Biden clearly ahead. They think Trump is going to win.
A Pew Research Center poll published earlier this month demonstrates what's going on quite well. The poll had Biden up by 8 points over Trump, very similar to the average and the Ipsos poll discussed earlier.
Yet, the same poll found that Americans believed by a 51% to 46% margin that Trump would defeat Biden in the election. (Among voters, it was a tighter 50% to 48% spread in favor of Trump.)
The poll indicates that voters either believe the race will shift back to Trump or that the polling is wrong.
Interestingly, the poll was self administered via the internet without live interviewers, so it's not like the voters who said they were voting for Biden had reason to give what they might perceive as the more socially desirable answer (i.e. not voting for Trump).
Despite this, some voters think the polling is off.
Another question getting at the idea of potentially hidden Trump voters shows something similar to the Pew poll. By a 5-point margin, voters in an August Fox News poll said they thought more of their neighbors were voting for Trump over Biden. Biden was ahead in the horserace by 7 points in the poll.
betting odds are showing the same thing. biden and trump are basically neck and neck in the odds now. i expected a trump recovery but not so quickly!
https://odds.watch/trump-2020anyway, this kind of atmosphere bolsters biden's chances in my mind. another trump victory just like 2016? that sounds a little too predictable.
Now he is at 1000 again (the max), but there is still some action on Harris, Hillary, M. Obama, Pence and Mark Cuban 
