US Presidential Election 2020 - page 4.

STT

legendary

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I can't deal with another 4 years from Trump. I'm not stoked about Biden either.

Im not a fan of politics overall, its very often a waste of time and energy for those who cant avoid its power. Im more interested in natural dynamics, the people have to take some responsibility for whoever is voted in. So I would mostly be looking at Trump voters or people on the right and how possible is it they have enough regret to change a vote or not even that, just not vote Trump and vote nobody would be enough. I guess a couple could even vote Kayne though the story is more liberal voters will detract from Biden to Kayne. Some will say its impossible that Kayne means anything but at least one state maybe it tips the scales, I dont know but seems like this could be close enough of an election.
Right now I do think Biden wins because he isnt causing left wing voters to switch and apparently that happened with Hilary, maybe that story is wrong but seems to fit and who can really call the voters which can go either way in each election. Im convinced a fair few dont decide until the very day of the election vote and thats it they lick their finger walking up the steps to see which way the wind blows and decide thats the way to go on the day.

johhnyUA

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Crypto for the Crypto Throne!

Quote from: bryant.coleman on September 03, 2020, 07:02:03 AM

This is what happened in 2016. Don't repeat the stupid story of Russian intervention. And for me, it seems like the Democrats are already looking for excuses in case they lose in 2020 as well.

As you can see, they (democrats) do it again. I mean they don't allow Sanders to go for election and choose Biden, who for young voters not better candidate than Trump (maybe very few). So their chances are close enough (Trump chances raising, book odds falls decreasing)

And yeah, story about Russia intervention is silly enough. Why not China?

Cnut237

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Quote from: bryant.coleman on September 04, 2020, 01:26:08 AM

And do you still believe that Hillary lost as a result of the so called "Russian intervention"? If that is the case, then I pity on you.

It was certainly a contributing factor. Russia works to improve the strength of Russia relative to its opponents/rivals. The easiest way to achieve this is by weakening or destabilising those rivals. Russia has been implicated in election manipulation quite a few times, it's not just US 2016. Here in the UK for example, Russia were involved in supporting Scottish independence during the referendum (Scotland seceding from the UK weakens the UK). Russia were involved in supporting the Brexit vote (the UK leaving the EU weakens both the UK and other European nations, as well as the EU itself, and NATO). Whether you're a Trumpist or not, it's difficult to deny that he polarises opinion and has led to infighting and civil unrest within the US, as well as weakening the US's reputation and standing on the global stage - exactly as Russia would desire. The modern world is connected and global, and the internet - particularly social media - is largely anonymous. It's easy to create fake 'people'. And it's difficult to believe that Russia can be stopped from interfering.

bryant.coleman

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Umm.. a REPUBLICAN let panel confirmed this. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/18/us/politics/senate-intelligence-russian-interference-report.html

if your own party has confirmed this, how can you argue? this isn't the dems, this isn't the liberal media. It's your own GOP senators. so it's not propaganda. It's fact.

Russians leaked some emails which proved that the Democrat primaries were rigged in favor of Hillary Clinton. Now you are blaming the whistle-blower instead of the people who rigged the polls. What sort of logic is that? And do you still believe that Hillary lost as a result of the so called "Russian intervention"? If that is the case, then I pity on you.

wiss19

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on August 31, 2020, 05:59:48 AM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on August 30, 2020, 01:10:30 PM

betting odds are showing the same thing. biden and trump are basically neck and neck in the odds now. i expected a trump recovery but not so quickly! https://odds.watch/trump-2020

anyway, this kind of atmosphere bolsters biden's chances in my mind. another trump victory just like 2016? that sounds a little too predictable.

You have a point there. Back in 2016, most of the people expected Hillary to win easily. Especially the Democrat voters stayed at home and didn't bothered to vote. That is not the case now. Trump and Biden are neck to neck now... and what happened four years back is not going to repeat. Turnout is going to be high, but I am worried about the impact the pandemic can have.

I hate it when people talk about 2016 and how Hillary was leading all the polls and even the odds and how in 2020 Biden is leading both of them again and people keep saying "well that means nothing same happened in 2016 as well".

First of all people hated Hillary Clinton way more than everyone hates Biden, he is not as bad as she was so that is out of question to begin with.

Secondly and more importantly, the difference is we had 4 years of Trump, we had a presidency that was filled with corrupt and fascist movement that saw more and more innocent people dead and we have seen him literally do nothing about the pandemic and over a quarter million of Americans dead because of trump. So, please do not come up with 2016 and 2020 similarities, there are none, Biden will win this easily not because Biden is such a great candidate, but because Trump is evil resurrected.

bryant.coleman

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I have no words. Unless Russia interferes again (it's been proven) I don't see how trump can win. Either way, I'm sad for this country. I can't deal with another 4 years from Trump. I'm not stoked about Biden either. There is a ton of civil unrest and I don't think a lot of people realize how close we are to civil war. And I'm not an alarmist, i promise.

Don't give stupid excuses. If Russia is able to intervene during the presidential election process in the United States, then it would mean that the entire process is a joke. It looks as if the Democrat supporters, even after 4 years don't want to admit that they lost in 2016 because of wrong candidate selection. Sanders won the primaries, but the Democrat establishment rigged it and gave nomination to Hillary. As a result, most of the Sanders supporters refrained from voting, and this enabled Trump to win.

This is what happened in 2016. Don't repeat the stupid story of Russian intervention. And for me, it seems like the Democrats are already looking for excuses in case they lose in 2020 as well.

Cnut237

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Quote from: bryant.coleman on September 02, 2020, 01:53:27 PM

Back in 2016, there were widespread incidents of vandalism and physical attacks against those who openly voiced their support for Trump. This in turn forced some of his supporters (especially those in the minority dominated inner city areas) to hide their political leaning. But the opinion polls now claim that their methodology takes in to account this under-counting.

Perhaps, but we do see this effect time and again in elections across the world, so it would be quite a precedent if the pollsters have actually managed to account for it. We do also of course have the issue that when a poll starts implementing modifications and algorithms to correct for perceived inaccuracies, then it ceases to an extent to be a poll and becomes more of a predicted outcome, with its accuracy dependent not just on the honesty of prospective voters, but also on the type and quality of the modifications.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on September 02, 2020, 07:59:55 AM

Trump is trailing in almost all the swing states (and even in some of the red states such as Texas and Georgia), and even with this, the betting odds are not very lopsided. I just checked William Hill, and they are having exactly same odds for both the candidates (10/11). Same is the case with other sites such as Betfair and VBET. Most surprising are the odds from bet365, 888Sport.etc. They are giving better odds to Trump, when compared to Biden.

If we go by the opinion polls, then the odds should be somewhere around 5/1 or 4/1 for Trump.

I think that this is the first time in the history of POTUS elections that we have such a discrepancy between the odds and the opinion polls.

the polls aren't that lopsided. biden only has a 7 point lead on average.

betfair currently has biden up by 2 points. https://odds.watch/trump-2020

for comparison, betfair was giving clinton an 80% chance of winning on election day in 2016. polls varied, but a reuters/ipsos poll the day before the election gave her a 90% chance of winning.
https://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-odds-winning-election-trump-2016-11
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/clinton-has-90-percent-chance-of-winning-reuters-ipsos-states-of-the-nation-idUSKBN1322J1

bryant.coleman

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Quote from: Cnut237 on September 02, 2020, 09:22:14 AM

I think one reason for this discrepancy is that people aren't always honest in opinion polls. Generally it is right-wing candidates who benefit from this effect: there are likely far more people who will vote Trump but won't admit it, than there are people who will vote Biden but won't admit it. We see this time and time again across different countries. The more controversial (and right-wing) a candidate is, the greater the effect. I'd imagine betting companies are fully aware of this, whereas opinion polls simply reflect what people say they will do, rather than what they actually do.

Back in 2016, there were widespread incidents of vandalism and physical attacks against those who openly voiced their support for Trump. This in turn forced some of his supporters (especially those in the minority dominated inner city areas) to hide their political leaning. But the opinion polls now claim that their methodology takes in to account this under-counting.

Captain Corporate

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I believe USA can't get rid of Trump because Trump is not the cause of the problem, Trump is the consequences of the problem. Do you think USA would had Trump if there weren't people who cheered him on when he did something? You think BLM would be out on the streets if a cop actually got a punishment when he killed someone? You think Congress would have to attack every move Trump makes if he didn't threaten the very existence of democracy? These are not causes of something, these are consequences of it and USA unfortunately is filled with people who actually hate blacks, who actually support the right of the wealthy over the needy and who cares only for individual rights they have over the betterment of the country. If USA was this horrible place, nobody would have gain any power by being anything like Trump.

wheelz1200

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on September 02, 2020, 07:59:55 AM

Quote from: tyKiwanuka on September 02, 2020, 07:43:36 AM

There is also a difference in betting markets vs opinion polls at this very moment. The polls look at the present, like: If the election was today, who would get your vote ? It can and will change over time. The betting markets don't care that much what is the status quo today - they are anticipating (or trying to), what will happen in the future, on November 3rd to be precise. And they are leaning very much towards Trump having the upper hand when that day has come, because it's already a 50/50 market at this point whereas this makes no sense looking from a poll point of view.

This is also a result of the 2016 election and the markets are very confident (overconfident ?) that this will happen again and don't want to miss out this time; some kind of FOMO Wink

This is very much true. Trump is trailing in almost all the swing states (and even in some of the red states such as Texas and Georgia), and even with this, the betting odds are not very lopsided. I just checked William Hill, and they are having exactly same odds for both the candidates (10/11). Same is the case with other sites such as Betfair and VBET. Most surprising are the odds from bet365, 888Sport.etc. They are giving better odds to Trump, when compared to Biden.

If we go by the opinion polls, then the odds should be somewhere around 5/1 or 4/1 for Trump.

I think that this is the first time in the history of POTUS elections that we have such a discrepancy between the odds and the opinion polls.

Opinion polls have proven to not be a reliable needle either way. I'd rather look at betting statistics nailing the presidential win versus opinion polls. The silent majority does not get counted in opinion polls whereas there is no silent majority in betting. There isn't as much backlash when putting putting you money on a particular candidate since the betting event is isolated to only the better and the book

Cnut237

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on September 02, 2020, 07:43:36 AM

There is also a difference in betting markets vs opinion polls at this very moment. The polls look at the present, like: If the election was today, who would get your vote ? It can and will change over time. The betting markets don't care that much what is the status quo today - they are anticipating (or trying to), what will happen in the future, on November 3rd to be precise. And they are leaning very much towards Trump having the upper hand

I think one reason for this discrepancy is that people aren't always honest in opinion polls. Generally it is right-wing candidates who benefit from this effect: there are likely far more people who will vote Trump but won't admit it, than there are people who will vote Biden but won't admit it. We see this time and time again across different countries. The more controversial (and right-wing) a candidate is, the greater the effect. I'd imagine betting companies are fully aware of this, whereas opinion polls simply reflect what people say they will do, rather than what they actually do.

Vishnu.Reang

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on September 02, 2020, 07:43:36 AM

There is also a difference in betting markets vs opinion polls at this very moment. The polls look at the present, like: If the election was today, who would get your vote ? It can and will change over time. The betting markets don't care that much what is the status quo today - they are anticipating (or trying to), what will happen in the future, on November 3rd to be precise. And they are leaning very much towards Trump having the upper hand when that day has come, because it's already a 50/50 market at this point whereas this makes no sense looking from a poll point of view.

This is also a result of the 2016 election and the markets are very confident (overconfident ?) that this will happen again and don't want to miss out this time; some kind of FOMO Wink

This is very much true. Trump is trailing in almost all the swing states (and even in some of the red states such as Texas and Georgia), and even with this, the betting odds are not very lopsided. I just checked William Hill, and they are having exactly same odds for both the candidates (10/11). Same is the case with other sites such as Betfair and VBET. Most surprising are the odds from bet365, 888Sport.etc. They are giving better odds to Trump, when compared to Biden.

If we go by the opinion polls, then the odds should be somewhere around 5/1 or 4/1 for Trump.

I think that this is the first time in the history of POTUS elections that we have such a discrepancy between the odds and the opinion polls.

tyKiwanuka

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#birdgang

Quote from: bryant.coleman on September 02, 2020, 01:55:02 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on September 01, 2020, 11:11:58 PM

In any case, odds on Trump are trending in his favor. What does this say?

Biden is still leading in almost all the swing states, as per the opinion polls. The ground reports also confirm this. The only thing that can make the difference now is the turnout. And this is where I believe that Trump has the advantage. Trump supporters are much more likely to get out to vote, when compared to Biden supporters. But I don't know whether this difference is enough to hand him a win in November. None of the opinion polls can accurately measure this factor.

There is also a difference in betting markets vs opinion polls at this very moment. The polls look at the present, like: If the election was today, who would get your vote ? It can and will change over time. The betting markets don't care that much what is the status quo today - they are anticipating (or trying to), what will happen in the future, on November 3rd to be precise. And they are leaning very much towards Trump having the upper hand when that day has come, because it's already a 50/50 market at this point whereas this makes no sense looking from a poll point of view.

This is also a result of the 2016 election and the markets are very confident (overconfident ?) that this will happen again and don't want to miss out this time; some kind of FOMO Wink

bryant.coleman

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on September 01, 2020, 11:11:58 PM

@Vishnu.Reang. Agreed, however, I speculate that because of some Democrat politicians who support defunding the police causing chaos and because of their support of the riots, some democrats might change their vote. However, yes, I might be wrong, only a landslide victory for Trump would prove that I am correct hehehe.

In any case, odds on Trump are trending in his favor. What does this say?

Biden is still leading in almost all the swing states, as per the opinion polls. The ground reports also confirm this. The only thing that can make the difference now is the turnout. And this is where I believe that Trump has the advantage. Trump supporters are much more likely to get out to vote, when compared to Biden supporters. But I don't know whether this difference is enough to hand him a win in November. None of the opinion polls can accurately measure this factor.

bbc.reporter

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@Vishnu.Reang. Agreed, however, I speculate that because of some Democrat politicians who support defunding the police causing chaos and because of their support of the riots, some democrats might change their vote. However, yes, I might be wrong, only a landslide victory for Trump would prove that I am correct hehehe.

In any case, odds on Trump are trending in his favor. What does this say?

Vishnu.Reang

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on September 01, 2020, 12:16:36 AM

The pandemic had a negative impact on Trump, however, the riots will have a more negative impact on the Democrats. An example of this is the Portland mayor. He rejected Trump's sending of the national guard to help maintain peace and order, now the city is open for rioters and criminals. How would ordinary citizens who only want everything to be back to normal react?

They will speak through the ballot, they will vote Trump.

These issues will have no impact on the partisan voters. For example, the liberals and the African Americans will vote for Biden, no matter what happens in Portland or in any other city. Similarly, evangelicals will vote for Trump ignoring all the other issues. The independent voters can get swayed by the rioting and handling of COVID, but they comprise less than 10% of the electorate. Need to examine the recent polling, to confirm whether they are shifting away from Biden/Kamala.

swogerino

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I know how serious we should be when talking about US presidential elections but I don’t know if anyone else have observed the other side of the medal and it looks really funny.A friend of mine told me when we were joking around “Is USA choosing the oldest men alive for president as both candidates are quite of a mature age and compared to EU leaders they surely are older”

I think whoever wins they sure are some old man beside being president of USA.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on August 31, 2020, 05:59:48 AM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on August 30, 2020, 01:10:30 PM

betting odds are showing the same thing. biden and trump are basically neck and neck in the odds now. i expected a trump recovery but not so quickly! https://odds.watch/trump-2020

anyway, this kind of atmosphere bolsters biden's chances in my mind. another trump victory just like 2016? that sounds a little too predictable.

You have a point there. Back in 2016, most of the people expected Hillary to win easily. Especially the Democrat voters stayed at home and didn't bothered to vote. That is not the case now. Trump and Biden are neck to neck now... and what happened four years back is not going to repeat. Turnout is going to be high, but I am worried about the impact the pandemic can have.

The pandemic had a negative impact on Trump, however, the riots will have a more negative impact on the Democrats. An example of this is the Portland mayor. He rejected Trump's sending of the national guard to help maintain peace and order, now the city is open for rioters and criminals. How would ordinary citizens who only want everything to be back to normal react?

They will speak through the ballot, they will vote Trump.

STT

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I thought Hilary could lose it as soon as she accepted the win before voting day or least this was the strong impression, anticipating that Trump had made so many mistakes it would be impossible for him to win and he did get the minority of votes yep but won by a broader range of states which is deceptively what matters.

Quote

Trump is definitely trailing,

There is no definite, its an irregular calculation that comes up with who wins and its not clear he lost his core support which somehow tipped the scales last time. He could be trailing on votes and yet takes it because its not purely about plain numbers, seems to be a fault in the polls that they are counting too simply. Perhaps we should only pay attention to 1 poll in 1 particular state, thats the extent of their accuracy and then we have to check 50 other polls and the picture is built up; its not a 60 second headline type of answer.

Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 4. (Read 6260 times)