US Presidential Election 2020 - page 7.

Vishnu.Reang

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Quote from: Gyfts on August 15, 2020, 02:52:03 AM

3rd party candidates take away votes from the democrat and republican tickets. Doesn't usually matter except for when the margin's razor thin like it was in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan ect. You look at Trump's win last election cycle, he won with a total of 30-50k votes when you add up a few of the swing states.

When the election comes in that close, 3rd party candidates do make an impact.

This is the wrong assumption. I have carefully studied the voting pattern of the supporters of Green Party, Libertarian Party and the Constitution Party. In most cases the supporters of these parties are those who hate both the Democrats and the Republicans equally. In an election, they would never vote for a candidate from either of these two parties. If the third party option is not available, then they are likely to stay at home.

Gyfts

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on August 15, 2020, 12:10:51 AM

Political analysts make a big mistake when they talk about the 3rd party candidates (such as those from the Green Party and the Libertarian Party). But the reality is that these candidates have only a minuscule impact on the fortunes of the two major contenders. In 90% of the cases, those who vote for Green/Libertarians are those who are tired of the mainstream politics. For them, voting for a 3rd party candidate is a form of protest. If the option is not available, they would rather sit at home and abstain from voting.

And don't get much excited about Kanye. Trust me, he is not going to run for the elections.

3rd party candidates take away votes from the democrat and republican tickets. Doesn't usually matter except for when the margin's razor thin like it was in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan ect. You look at Trump's win last election cycle, he won with a total of 30-50k votes when you add up a few of the swing states.

When the election comes in that close, 3rd party candidates do make an impact.

Vishnu.Reang

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Quote from: johhnyUA on August 14, 2020, 04:54:30 PM

Man, why are you sure that votes will be ejected from Biden and not from Trump? You never can be sure how 3rd party candidate will affect on another two main candidates, so it is better just to ignore their influence. You think that Kanye will take away votes from Biden, but because he is enough conspiracy theorist, some not to clever people (which would vote for Trump in any another situation) will vote for him. And Trump votes will be decreased.

Political analysts make a big mistake when they talk about the 3rd party candidates (such as those from the Green Party and the Libertarian Party). But the reality is that these candidates have only a minuscule impact on the fortunes of the two major contenders. In 90% of the cases, those who vote for Green/Libertarians are those who are tired of the mainstream politics. For them, voting for a 3rd party candidate is a form of protest. If the option is not available, they would rather sit at home and abstain from voting.

And don't get much excited about Kanye. Trust me, he is not going to run for the elections.

el kaka22

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People in America do not like to pay for stuff, that is a dead giveaway why they do not want to pick people like Bernie and why Yang was not even considered. If you tell Americans they have two option, either pick whatever insurance company they want to work with on healthcare and iron out the details like what would be insured and what will not be, and end up paying more, or pay less and still get everything covered for free, they would still pick the insurance companies you know why?

Because, they also have a chance to not pick any and not pay anything and if they actually do not get sick that means zero money, so they can wing it and might actually get lucky. There is really no developed country in the world that failed to do free healthcare and yet they still manage to vote against it and pay 100 bucks for a 3 buck insulin.

All that "where are you going to find the money to pay it" type of deal is actually due to medicine and doctors being super expensive, if you drop the prices down to match Canada for example (literally just above them) all health related stuff would be super cheap and you can do universal healthcare for 50% of what they are paying the insurance companies. It is a weird weird country and Trump could get reelected, wouldn't shock me.

johhnyUA

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Quote from: STT on August 14, 2020, 04:30:47 PM

Definitely seems a reasonable dynamic in play on whether a 3rd party candidate could seriously derail this election in terms of predictability, can that alter 1% or more then a few % of votes away from Biden enough to alter the overall outcome. Nobody takes Kanye seriously and a ton of people never took Trump seriously, he was the punch line on a joke at a white house evening famously. So in elections it seems blind spots matter, Ross Perot if anyone remembers him was another famous 3rd party candidate. A few people think this election is not predictable, probably worth considering the idea with any serious bet. Biden to win remains the upset outcome not default.

https://youtu.be/QRRwBqwKWz4?t=4030

Man, why are you sure that votes will be ejected from Biden and not from Trump? You never can be sure how 3rd party candidate will affect on another two main candidates, so it is better just to ignore their influence. You think that Kanye will take away votes from Biden, but because he is enough conspiracy theorist, some not to clever people (which would vote for Trump in any another situation) will vote for him. And Trump votes will be decreased.

STT

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Definitely seems a reasonable dynamic in play on whether a 3rd party candidate could seriously derail this election in terms of predictability, can that alter 1% or more then a few % of votes away from Biden enough to alter the overall outcome. Nobody takes Kanye seriously and a ton of people never took Trump seriously, he was the punch line on a joke at a white house evening famously. So in elections it seems blind spots matter, Ross Perot if anyone remembers him was another famous 3rd party candidate. A few people think this election is not predictable, probably worth considering the idea with any serious bet. Biden to win remains the upset outcome not default.

https://youtu.be/QRRwBqwKWz4?t=4030

Vishnu.Reang

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Quote from: AjithBtc on August 13, 2020, 11:23:07 AM

Kamala Harris, the vice presidential candidate is an Asian American. Her mother is an Indian. She is an able personality, who has been into possession of various leading roles in the US government. If she hasn't done good reforms, now she could've got out of the race. For reference about her early life I've added the Wikipedia source.

Kamala Harris identifies herself as African American (similar to Barack Obama identifying as AA although his mother is non-Hispanic White). Also she is very vocal about her religion (Baptist Christian). Till now she has refused to acknowledge her Asian/Hindu identity. Also, she is ranked as the most anti-Indian among the current group of senators. She became the VP candidate primarily because she is African American. If she identified as an Asian American, then she would have never got the VP ticket. It will be laughable to call her an "Asian American".

DarkDays

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If you ask me the quest for the first female president of USA is looking stronger than ever. Kamala Harris is a real candidate with some real influence and I think she stands a great chance to win. The only other person I am rooting for is Andrew M. Yang.

If you want to compare stats, you can do so on their wiki pages for their campaigns.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris_2020_presidential_campaign
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang_2020_presidential_campaign

In terms of policies, I think Andrews' are better. FFS HE'S GIVING AWAY FREE MONEY! Only Americans can be dumb enough to not elect either of these 2 as their presidents.

leea-1334

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on August 12, 2020, 12:41:23 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 11, 2020, 09:03:14 PM

I am very disappointed. I thought my prediction and analysis were becoming a certainty hehehe. Also after the news articles about Kamala Harris unfollowed Biden on Twitter, I was already counting my money before holding it.

Biden doesn't want to repeat the same mistakes which were done by Hillary in 2016. He knows that he needs to ensure a good turnout from the Democrat supporters. As of now, Harris is the most popular African American leader and may help him in many of the crucial states such as Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Personally, I would have preferred a Hispanic or an Asian as the VP pick.

So people are still voting based on race instead of policies? Just kidding,,, it happens here and everywhere else also. I think Kamala Harris fell down the betting pick at some point so whoever bet on her just after that rumor happened is probably counting a lot of money bbc.report!

I generally like Biden and Harris but I feel that leadership wise they are not really charismatic people,,, shrugs.

bbc.reporter

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I reckon that @figmentofmyass might be correct. This might be the best time to bet on Trump. I was speculating that the situation might be very similar to the election of 2016, however, the storyboard for this election is clearly beginning to be different.

Also, the debates during the campaign might show Biden's failing memory hehehe.

It’s Way Too Soon To Count Trump Out

Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition.

But the election is not being held today. While the polls have been stable so far this year, it’s still only August. The debates and the conventions have yet to occur. Biden only named his running mate yesterday. And the campaign is being conducted amidst a pandemic the likes of which the United States has not seen in more than 100 years, which is also causing an unprecedented and volatile economy.

Nor has it been that uncommon, historically, for polls to shift fairly radically from mid-August until Election Day. Furthermore, there are some reasons to think the election will tighten, and President Trump is likely to have an advantage in a close election because of the Electoral College.

Source https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-way-too-soon-to-count-trump-out/

johhnyUA

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Quote from: Mauser on August 10, 2020, 04:24:22 AM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on August 09, 2020, 02:39:16 PM

trump's chances are improving, up to 38% per betfair. i have a feeling this trend will continue.

Quote from: STT on August 09, 2020, 01:48:22 PM

Quote

Biden is a weak candidate. A lot weaker than Hillary.

This is personal perspective really but Hillary really upset quite a few voters for various reasons.

another way of saying someone is a "strong" candidate is to say they are polarizing. hillary was extremely polarizing. so is trump. this is not necessarily a good thing, since it fires up voters in the opposing party. another angle to view this---biden is less hated than trump. this may become important with older voters and principled conservatives, who seem to be growing tired of trump's antics.

I am not sure if it's now the time to bet on Trump already, I saw his chances are going up. But is this really his lowpoint?

I'm not sure, but the big probability that it is. I already bet on Trump with previous mentioned odd, and i think odds will decrease to somewhere near 2-2.1 or even lower (to 1.8 )

Emitdama

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I still think Kamala was both a right choice and a wrong choice at the same time for two different reasons. Biden could have picked a progressive and maybe asked them to bring in the progressive votes in as well, that way Biden would talk to people who are centrist and the progressive VP could have talked to people who are progressive and they could have asked for votes from all democrats, they didn't do that, Kamala is a centrist herself as well and now they probably lost the progressive votes, their only hope is that progressives would vote for Biden because he is not Trump and that is the only thing they can provide.

However at the same time, Biden made sure that he has a running mate basically like him, he definitely picked her because he knows that ALL centrists and even most of independents will want to vote for him now that he basically promises to bring USA back to 4 years ago.

AjithBtc

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on August 12, 2020, 12:41:23 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 11, 2020, 09:03:14 PM

I am very disappointed. I thought my prediction and analysis were becoming a certainty hehehe. Also after the news articles about Kamala Harris unfollowed Biden on Twitter, I was already counting my money before holding it.

Biden doesn't want to repeat the same mistakes which were done by Hillary in 2016. He knows that he needs to ensure a good turnout from the Democrat supporters. As of now, Harris is the most popular African American leader and may help him in many of the crucial states such as Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Personally, I would have preferred a Hispanic or an Asian as the VP pick.

Kamala Harris, the vice presidential candidate is an Asian American. Her mother is an Indian. She is an able personality, who has been into possession of various leading roles in the US government. If she hasn't done good reforms, now she could've got out of the race. For reference about her early life I've added the Wikipedia source.

Captain Corporate

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Kamala Harris is not a bad choice but I do not understand the logic of presidents in the USA when they are picking a running mate, why do you pick someone that would be just loyal to you and be basically mini-me for you? I mean kamala harris had to drop out before so many people in the race, which shows you that she didn't had all that much following at all, people here talk about how she could get minorities to vote for Biden and all that but Biden didn't really had hard time in minority states neither, he was good. On the other hand Bernie was the second person in voting, the only person that had more votes than Bernie was Biden, dude was a great candidate and at one point looked like he could have won as well if the super tuesday didn't turned out so horrible. So I think if you ask me Bernie should have been the VP, since he would get a lot more people riled up to vote for him to be VP, who will Kamala get? Few thousand at most? Bernie could have gotten Biden millions of votes.

erikoy

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on August 12, 2020, 12:41:23 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 11, 2020, 09:03:14 PM

I am very disappointed. I thought my prediction and analysis were becoming a certainty hehehe. Also after the news articles about Kamala Harris unfollowed Biden on Twitter, I was already counting my money before holding it.

Biden doesn't want to repeat the same mistakes which were done by Hillary in 2016. He knows that he needs to ensure a good turnout from the Democrat supporters. As of now, Harris is the most popular African American leader and may help him in many of the crucial states such as Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Personally, I would have preferred a Hispanic or an Asian as the VP pick.

Asian would do good if it holds a position in the government for they are known hardworking and has the initiative when it comes to good leadership and decision making. PDuterte of the Philippines is one good example of an asian with good leadership. Anyway, Biden should also avoid on getting possible mistakes like what happen on 2016. If Biden really win in this election then I can say that people really chose him over

Vishnu.Reang

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 11, 2020, 09:03:14 PM

I am very disappointed. I thought my prediction and analysis were becoming a certainty hehehe. Also after the news articles about Kamala Harris unfollowed Biden on Twitter, I was already counting my money before holding it.

Biden doesn't want to repeat the same mistakes which were done by Hillary in 2016. He knows that he needs to ensure a good turnout from the Democrat supporters. As of now, Harris is the most popular African American leader and may help him in many of the crucial states such as Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Personally, I would have preferred a Hispanic or an Asian as the VP pick.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on August 11, 2020, 03:10:34 PM

Biden has selected his running mate and judging by the odds movements (there are always people with some insider information), it will be Susan Rice - he will announce it later today, lets see. Unfortunately I can't access the Betfair charts (if someone can, please post a screenshot here), but in the last screenshot I took end of July, Rice was 5+. In a screenshot from April, she isn't visible so must have been 30+. Good bet missed Grin

Edit: Well he picked Harris actually Cheesy

I am very disappointed. I thought my prediction and analysis were becoming a certainty hehehe. Also after the news articles about Kamala Harris unfollowed Biden on Twitter, I was already counting my money before holding it.

STT

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impossible to win

Some of the worlds largest democracies have had women leaders voted in, this would be more a commentary on USA as a democratic country then if that was what you meant. Literally it seems to be a reality if theres a female VP on the ticket for one of the two likely party winners.
Russia having a vaccine apparent seems to be the biggest news I've heard today that should have an effect on the voting and possible odds, that does change quite alot depending on the quality and quantity of production possible. I've interested in the candidate views on this as its quite pivotal imo.

Biden does a burnout

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on August 11, 2020, 03:10:34 PM

Biden has selected his running mate and judging by the odds movements (there are always people with some insider information), it will be Susan Rice - he will announce it later today, lets see. Unfortunately I can't access the Betfair charts (if someone can, please post a screenshot here), but in the last screenshot I took end of July, Rice was 5+. In a screenshot from April, she isn't visible so must have been 30+. Good bet missed Grin

Edit: Well he picked Harris actually Cheesy

lol. unsurprisingly kamala was the bet to take all along---good in the 2s, still good at sub-2. never much doubt in my mind.

Quote from: wiss19 on August 11, 2020, 04:49:44 PM

Lastly Biden hasn't been active at all, dude just shuts up and waits for Trump to lose

judging by the 2016 election, that's probably a smart move. hillary's ego was part of her downfall.

wiss19

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Well the risky thing is, Trump managed to let corona hit the country hard and when you check most of the people who died was from the democrat states and that means more democrat voters died than republicans. Now that is strike one.

Secondly he is against mail in voting and he is doing everything in his power to stop that, including hiring someone for postal service that will cut everyone out and make it impossible for nation to calculate the mail in votes correctly. That is strike two.

Lastly Biden hasn't been active at all, dude just shuts up and waits for Trump to lose, while trump even said "he doesn't care if Russia is trying to reelect him" as in he is not helping them or working with them but also doesn't care and won't stop them. Strike three. So at the end, I think it will be unfair elections that Trump will steal, which could give republicans so much power that nobody could say he won't try for a third time and face absolutely no problems since he controls everything and everyone who is in charge that could stop him.

Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 7. (Read 6237 times)