Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 3. (Read 6260 times)

That does not change on what might occur if Trump wins or Biden wins. Trump cannot be sitting in the white house if he is not the rightful winner, however, the Democrats will protest the results if they lose while Trump is sitting in the white house.

I reckon Trump can protest but he will not be the sitting president.

He could win it. It's often awarded more for political reasons than on merit. The infamous mass-murderer Henry Kissinger won it back in the 70s.

I don't like Trump, but it could be argued that his pursuit of US isolationism and retreat from the world stage is actually more conducive to global peace than what a lot of previous presidents have achieved.

Did anyone happen to catch the interview on the BBC radio program overnight "Hard Talk"?  The senior Republican official being interviewed researches public sentiment and advises the GOP of the trends and concerns of the Republican voters who it seems think Trump will loose in the key 11 states with the others not being in contention (i.e. not swing state enough) with billions of dollars being spent on advertorials.

Then today the "Covid Recordings" have come to light, so it's looking less likely the GOP will win.  (Stranger things have been known to happen)

As Vishnu.Reang pointed out in one of the previous posts, this time the counting is going to be very complex. More than half of the votes will be from mailed out ballots. Unlike the previous elections, the winner this time won't be declared for many days after the elections. This can obviously result in allegations of fraud, similar to what happened during the 2008 United States Senate election in Minnesota.

It was a very different situation back in 2016. The people were also not encouraged to riot and to support the call for defund the police hehehe.

What can Trump do if he is not rightfully the winner under the electoral college? He cannot legally stay in the white house. The guards will force him out because he is not the commander in chief anymore hehehe.

Anyway it is going to get quite complicated this time. More than half of the voters are saying that they will be voting through postal ballots. And another complexity is that those who prefer postal ballots are mostly Democrats, and those who prefer to vote in person are mostly Republican. This can lead to unforeseen circumstances when the counting begins. Trump may end up having a lead in almost all the states (including the deep blue states) for the first 4-5 hours. Postal ballots are counted only after all the other ballots are accounted for and it may take a few days to complete the process. If the number of postal ballots are very large, then Trump may be in the lead for the first few days.

Donald Trump is nominated for the Nobel peace prize LOL
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/us-trump-nominated-for-nobel-peace-prize/1967732

hillary has changed her tune a bit recently. this time she says the democrats should not concede under any circumstances: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hillary-clinton-joe-biden-should-not-concede-on-election-night


if the election is close, i'm anticipating a contested election similar to george w bush vs al gore in 2000. weeks of legal challenges and recounts etc.

no, trump won't declare a state of emergency and try to take dictatorial control and outright reject the election results and judicial system---you'd have to give me insanely long odds to bet on that. but court/recount drama that drags out into late november or december? i could see that happening for sure.

He is already a president if he come losing this election then that is already enough to serve the people. It is nor about him running for the presidency it is all about the people's choice to serve for them. Presidency is not about the power or position you hold rather it is a how people wanted the service they deserve from money.

If P Trump will not accept defeat then definitely he is just running for himself for his self interest to gain what their country to offer to him.

I just can't imagine Trump ever admitting that he's lost in a two-horse race. The world inside his head bears little relation to reality at the best of times. Has he ever admitted he's been wrong about anything, or competed in something where he acknowledged that he did not win? His actions as president demonstrate that he regards laws as a hindrance rather than a necessary constraint. I do think this is a genuine potential outcome - I don't know whether he'll win or lose, but if he does lose, there's got to be a reasonable chance that he refuses to acknowledge that he's lost, refuses to relinquish the presidency, and starts all manner of legal objections.

Hmm.. I understand. BTW, anyone remember the Manny Pacquiao vs. Keith Thurman fight? Initially the odds were biased towards Thurman, but as Pacquiao fans made big bets on the Filipino boxer, the gambling sites adjusted their odds and in the end Pacquiao ended up with better odds than Thurman. This was illogical, as I thought that Thurman was in a much better chance of knocking out Manny. But then, Pacuiao won that fight.

I reckon your analysis is on the wrong way hehe. I predict that Trump will win the electoral college and make him the rightful winner, however, the popular vote will be for Biden. The Democrats will then not accept their loss and continue the riots and barricade their own communities.

I checked in a bookmaker that often has some crazy bets, but nothing available

For refusing to accept defeat, I would basically play any odds, since it will be the case no matter what. But then again we would have to define what "refusing" is. If it's just going on a rant of epic proportions, even 1.01 is super value for me Anything more I would be a bit more cautious with my money. Challenging the election results ? Maybe something around 1.20 is already good^^ Barricading in the WH ? Phew, I would want 50+ for that

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You should be able to place a bet on Biden in nearly every bookmaker there is. The best odds on him you will probably find at Betfair Exchange.

wonder if what are the available sites that are accepting this kind of game because it is very interesting to see the outcome and if we can bet early then I am pretty sure that we can also get a better odds. Unlike when the election will be very near, it is already less than 2 months before the election will likely to happen. With regards to the odds that you drop, I am not very familiar to it and what will be the best website where we can place our bet? I like to place my bet for Joe Biden as I guess he has good chances to win this upcoming election.

Yes, you're right, seems sensible to bet for Biden if you can get good odds. I suppose with gambling sites, they are adjusting their odds based on how much money is being bet (at what odds) on each party, so it doesn't purely reflect the candidates' chances.

I wonder what the odds are on Trump losing, but then refusing to accept that he's lost, and barricading himself in the White House? Got to be worth a bet.

It is perplexing to see such a big difference between the betting odds and the probabilities being given by websites such as Realclearpolitics and
FiveThirtyEight. Many of the gambling sites now (slightly) favor Trump to win the 2020 POTUS elections. On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight is giving a 71% chance that Biden may win this election. Given this, the most logical thing to do would be to place a bet in favor of Biden.

Too many viewed Clinton as subversive and not really open and representative, Trump is as obvious as they come.   The present criticism of him now of not supporting troops was fairly evident at least on quarrels with some individuals (imo that was enough) even before his election seems like, I'm not sure he got any worse on that point but just generally he is not diplomatic ever but brash and outspoken.   Its hard to say thats a positive but when you run for office you must give a clear message and he is totally obvious imo where as Hilary I dont think transmits that enough.  Its something I've noted will upset voters if a candidate comes off as acting superior or not one of the people.
  Theres leadership qualities of course and its been a while since I felt that of someone in politics especially though a good speech can help change perceptions and swing voters imo.   In any case even if Biden got the same amount of votes as Hilary he could be a winner, she did get the majority but not the right mix and if ever theres an upset it would only require a repeat of the same amount of votes.  Did the Democrat party get less popular in the last 4 years, if not its reasonable to say they will at least repeat and perhaps return more votes where needed, for a win overall.

Biden still has odds as the underdog some places, I'd bet Trump if I spot low odds for him.

 I am not the one who would ever defend Hillary Clinton because I do not like her at all, by all means she shouldn't be a president if its avoidable. However there are two things that are important in that scenario, first) if the other candidate is Trump, you could vote for a garbage can filled with puke and it would still be more likeable and can run the country better than Trump, so yes Hillary Clinton is not a sensible option for anyone in a regular scenario but 2016 wasn't regular, there was one evil person and one bad person, I would pick the bad one over evil any day.

 Secondly, "russian intervention" is not really a denied fact anymore, of course there could be Trumpets that will think it is, but it is LITERALLY proven fact, you can alternatively say that there is no connection that Trump requested this help, as long as Trump can say he didn't requested it, you can't stop Russians intervening and can't punish anyone who gets help unless they were a part, but the fact that it DID happen is not something you can deny and people would accept, it is a fact and there are literally records showing Russians actually did helped Trump.

 These are all gone anyway, 2016 is already decided and the presidency won on that is almost over, so there is no point on dwelling there. This time it is Joe Biden, I would say he is MUCH better than Hillary as well, still not ideal person, we would want a person with absolutely no flaws at all but there is no such thing and unfortunately politicians definitely have more flaws than other people, but comparing these three, Biden is like a saint compared to Hillary and Trump, so lets say USA makes the right choice this tim.e

Yes, to an extent it is their own fault by rigging the primaries. Yes, they selected a poor candidate. Yes, they were looking for an excuse. All true. But... this doesn't mean that Russian interference isn't also true. See my post above - there are plenty of other elections where there is evidence of Russian interference. If we think about the way that nations behave in the open (particularly Russia under Putin), and assume they are also behaving the same way in secret, and if we combine this with the fact that it is quite easy for a state actor to influence social media, then it seems - to me at least - extremely likely that Russian meddling is having an effect.

The Democrats were looking for an excuse after the 2016 loss, and they came up with the theory of Russian intervention. That can't hide the fact that the sole reason why they lost in 2016 was due to poor candidate selection. They nominated someone who can never be elected, and that too by rigging the primary polls.

But this time, I didn't found any evidence of rigging during the Democrat primaries. Biden secured the nomination in a fair manner. Sanders failed in securing support from groups outside his core-support base, such as African Americans. The only thing that I didn't liked about the Democrat primaries is the way they sidelined Tulsi Gabbard, by changing the rules.