Could be the strategy to create China as a great menace is working, its not a hard image to project given their size and communist backbone. They are probably the greatest threat to their own people rather especially a growing threat over other considerations. I heard a speech given at the Nixon library referencing the Nixon shock events and how Nixon while optimistic then would be disappointed in how this trade has turned out, long serious speech that could have been given years ago but its now because its a serious part of the campaign I think. A common enemy unites and to get the election win they need all the possible votes not be divided, so it might be as simple as that now reflecting in those poll figures.
Sleepy Joe asleep at the switch vs the red menace, its the kind of advert that sells itself doesn't have to be true to any extent and of course Russia wants Trump to remain Im pretty certain as a withdrawal of troops is a big deal to them. Russia and China are in a trade alliance and both are backing their currency with gold increasingly to be in sync for that trade, I dont think even if China disliked Trump they would go against Russia's wishes to back whatever story sells a Trump election win.
Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 6. (Read 6260 times)
According to a recent CNN poll (as we know not really a Trump friendly news channel), Trump is catching up fast. The number of voters who would vote for him and Pence rose from 41% to 46%. For Biden and Harris would vote 50%. And the television duels have not even started yet. Trump could play out his strength in direct duels and gain further ground. It remains exciting.
Quote
Overall, 50% of registered voters back the Biden-Harris ticket, while 46% say they support Trump and Pence, right at the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Some of the recent opinion polls suggest that Trump may be rebounding. Two days back, there was a poll from the Trafalgar Group, which showed that Biden and Trump are tied in the swing state of Minnesota. Another poll shows Biden leading by 4 points in Pennsylvania, but the earlier polls had measured his advantage at 6 to 10 points. This is a small rebound, and we need to check whether this trend is going to continue for the next few weeks.
Well, Trumps odds have gone down further (2.34 currently at Betfair) and this of course due to those polls as well, which then reflects in the state betting odds. Long way to go in Minnesota (4.75 -> 3.75), Pennsylvania looks a bit more realistic (3.00 -> 2.60). Other bigger drops pro Republicans happened in Iowa, Georgia, Texas, Michigan and Arizona.
Odds taken from: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/politics/electoral-college
If I consider everything 1.50 and lower a safe bet, it's 266 - 186 pro Biden, with 83 votes tbd. Some weeks ago it was 276 - 164 (95) as can be seen here, so Trump definitely has some momentum.
To be honest, Trump doesn't have a realistic chance of winning states such as Minnesota. He had in 2016, but not now. But here the point to note is that Trump needs to win all the swing states (83 electoral votes). He can't afford to lose even one of them. And that looks almost impossible now, given Biden's lead in states such as Wisconsin and Florida.
Momentum is with him, but he needs a lot more to stay competitive in the race.
Have you guys read this? 
We need to start our polling institution soon. lol.
- Gambling sites and betting odds are better at predicting election results than polls. Source
maybe so, but the advantages are sorta overstated. if you'll recall, bookmaker odds were heavily in favor of hillary in 2016 (IIRC betfair was around 75%), not so different from the polls.
punters are better informed then the average person surveyed in a political poll---i'll give it that. but if you see odds suggesting a 60% or 70% likely outcome, it's still pretty damn unpredictable. even if we assume they are pricing the odds 100% correctly, that's 3-4 out of every 10 they will be wrong.
do you have any idea how many 60/40 flips i lose at the poker table?
Have you guys read this?
We need to start our polling institution soon. lol.
- Gambling sites and betting odds are better at predicting election results than polls. Source
Some of the recent opinion polls suggest that Trump may be rebounding. Two days back, there was a poll from the Trafalgar Group, which showed that Biden and Trump are tied in the swing state of Minnesota. Another poll shows Biden leading by 4 points in Pennsylvania, but the earlier polls had measured his advantage at 6 to 10 points. This is a small rebound, and we need to check whether this trend is going to continue for the next few weeks.
Well, Trumps odds have gone down further (2.34 currently at Betfair) and this of course due to those polls as well, which then reflects in the state betting odds. Long way to go in Minnesota (4.75 -> 3.75), Pennsylvania looks a bit more realistic (3.00 -> 2.60). Other bigger drops pro Republicans happened in Iowa, Georgia, Texas, Michigan and Arizona.
Odds taken from: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/politics/electoral-college
If I consider everything 1.50 and lower a safe bet, it's 266 - 186 pro Biden, with 83 votes tbd. Some weeks ago it was 276 - 164 (95) as can be seen here, so Trump definitely has some momentum.
Some of the recent opinion polls suggest that Trump may be rebounding. Two days back, there was a poll from the Trafalgar Group, which showed that Biden and Trump are tied in the swing state of Minnesota. Another poll shows Biden leading by 4 points in Pennsylvania, but the earlier polls had measured his advantage at 6 to 10 points. This is a small rebound, and we need to check whether this trend is going to continue for the next few weeks.
Steve Bannon was arrested - https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/08/20/steve-bannon-indicted-border-wall-fundraising-vpx.cnn
He was one who helped Trump to win his previous elections and now with big probability Steve is going to jail for his "Great wall" scam. Not so good for Trump.
He was one who helped Trump to win his previous elections and now with big probability Steve is going to jail for his "Great wall" scam. Not so good for Trump.
There is one thing I know: Nothing happens in America by chance. Everything happens as expected. The leader in the surveys is probably the one to win the elections.
I cannot agree with you. In my opinion, everything that happens in the world happens to one degree or another by chance. It's just that for us it looks like such an overview that it seems to us that targeted actions led to this.
The world is gradually turning into a despotic world. Under these circumstances, I do not expect a different leader to become president.
What do you mean by an oppressive world? On the contrary, now there are fewer and fewer countries in the world where power is concentrated in one body or one person. Especially in America.
Decentralization of power is what democracy and freedom of any country should be based on. Different authorities must neutralize the human factor and errors in the conclusions of other structures.
On the example of dictatorial countries, we can see how damaging the centralized policy of states is.
Kamala is a very experienced senator. But she is not as experienced as Biden or Hillary, in order to qualify for the presidential nomination.
how much experience did trump have?
she's been in public office since 2004 and was attorney general of california---nothing to sneeze at IMO. she might have just the right background too.
Like I said, I never claimed that Kamala is inexperienced. But if you take the list of top 5 Democrat politicians in the United States, I don't think that Kamala would be included in that list. I just want to say that Biden is the most suitable candidate for 2020, while Kamala may become the first female president of the United States in 2024. What difference does it make, whether she becomes the president now, or four years later?
If you ask me the quest for the first female president of USA is looking stronger than ever. Kamala Harris is a real candidate with some real influence and I think she stands a great chance to win.
Kamala Harris has been chosen by Biden to be his vice president. She is not running for president.to be fair, the 2020 democratic VP candidate is being groomed for the 2024 presidential nomination. there's no way biden is running again in 2024. she's got a better shot than any other woman i can see.
This might be a crazy speculation. However, what if the Democrats' plan is on having Joe Biden step down and then replaced by Kamala Harris to run as president?
some have been speculating that all along, given biden's potentially poor cognitive state. the chances are very slim prior to the election IMO, but him stepping down sometime between 2021 and 2024 seems plausible.
Kamala is a very experienced senator. But she is not as experienced as Biden or Hillary, in order to qualify for the presidential nomination.
how much experience did trump have?
she's been in public office since 2004 and was attorney general of california---nothing to sneeze at IMO. she might have just the right background too.
The next weeks will be Donnie-time imo and I expect him to even be favourite in the betting markets again then. It's a bit annoying to have missed out on the higher odds, but 2.4+ looks good as well at this point. I am somehow rooting for a narrow Biden win just for the drama it would create, since Trump wouldn't accept the outcome of course. 2016 was already fun to follow but this election should top everything - I don't even need to bet on it, to already get excited. Popcorn ready.
Not sure how the latest polls look but CNN reported 2 days ago that Biden's lead over Trump has significantly decreased over the last month(s) (Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-august/index.html). So the Democrats shouldn't be too overly confident of victory
It will be interesting to see how Biden performs in the TV debates. That's something that would make me nervous if I were him.
This might be a crazy speculation. However, what if the Democrats' plan is on having Joe Biden step down and then replaced by Kamala Harris to run as president?
The Democrats want their black president in 2008, their female president on 2016 and they might want their black female president combined on 2020 hehehehe.
Kamala Harris odds is on 47.90 on Cloudbet.
The Democrats want their black president in 2008, their female president on 2016 and they might want their black female president combined on 2020 hehehehe.
Kamala Harris odds is on 47.90 on Cloudbet.
Kamala is a very experienced senator. But she is not as experienced as Biden or Hillary, in order to qualify for the presidential nomination. It is all but certain that she'll be the Democrat candidate for the 2024 POTUS elections. By then, she can widen her support base (which is limited to far-left and the African Americans right now). She needs to take a moderate stance on many of the policies and need to attract educated whites and Hispanics.
Kamala Harris odds is on 47.90 on Cloudbet.
I give you 80 for her, if you want
Just saw a poll in TV: "Does Joe Biden have a chance against Trump ?" Yes 85% - No 15%. This should be 100% for yes, because of course he has a chance, the question is only how big it is. The odds only know one direction at the moment; it's slow but steady, down to 2.42 at Betfair, bye bye 3.0+.
Biden has played a lot of his cards already what it feels like, while Trump is just starting. The niece of him was in TV here yesterday (via Skype) and as expected was telling what a loser Trump actually is and that he would be nothing without his father and just lost money with everything he touched. She wasn't very objective, but anyway.
The next weeks will be Donnie-time imo and I expect him to even be favourite in the betting markets again then. It's a bit annoying to have missed out on the higher odds, but 2.4+ looks good as well at this point. I am somehow rooting for a narrow Biden win just for the drama it would create, since Trump wouldn't accept the outcome of course. 2016 was already fun to follow but this election should top everything - I don't even need to bet on it, to already get excited. Popcorn ready.
This might be a crazy speculation. However, what if the Democrats' plan is on having Joe Biden step down and then replaced by Kamala Harris to run as president?
The Democrats want their black president in 2008, their female president on 2016 and they might want their black female president combined on 2020 hehehehe.
Kamala Harris odds is on 47.90 on Cloudbet.
The Democrats want their black president in 2008, their female president on 2016 and they might want their black female president combined on 2020 hehehehe.
Kamala Harris odds is on 47.90 on Cloudbet.
@Vishnu.Reang I had posted this in the political section and I’ll post it here again that Kamala has only been selected because of her Indian origin, and it’s a clever attempt to make Indians vote for the Democrats. Furthermore I don’t think that Democrats would be happy to see her in presidents chair in case something was to happen to Biden, but even if she became the president then too I doubt that she’ll be able to last long because of her outspoken ways.
Sources:
https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Why-Kamala-Harris-was-picked-as-Joe-Biden-s-15476165.php
https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-kamala-harris-on-the-ballot-indian-americans-predict-higher-turnout-11597336615
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-asian-american-women-vote-biden/
Sources:
https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Why-Kamala-Harris-was-picked-as-Joe-Biden-s-15476165.php
https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-kamala-harris-on-the-ballot-indian-americans-predict-higher-turnout-11597336615
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-asian-american-women-vote-biden/
This is laughable, because Kamala is perhaps the most anti-Indian lawmaker in the US senate right now. Till now she has refused to acknowledge her Indian heritage and she identifies as a Black baptist. Along with Prameela Jayapal, she was the most prominent critic of NRC/CAA. On the other hand, her pro-Pakistani position is well documented. A few Indian Americans of Tamil background may support her since her mother is Tamil. But none of the other Indians are going to support her.
Kamala Harris has been chosen by Biden to be his vice president. She is not running for president.
However, the quest for the first female president is real. 2016 showed this and it has been speculated that there is a small group among the Democrats that know Biden might not finish his term because of his age and mental health. That was why they have made sure to pick a female who also belongs to a minority.
However, the quest for the first female president is real. 2016 showed this and it has been speculated that there is a small group among the Democrats that know Biden might not finish his term because of his age and mental health. That was why they have made sure to pick a female who also belongs to a minority.
At this point, the Democrats can't afford to go for a VP candidate from any other ethnic group. Biden is almost 78 years old and he is non-Hispanic white. Donald Trump and his VP pick both are non-Hispanic white. So they had no other options, although better candidates were available. Kamala may be the most suitable candidate, but she is not the best candidate out there.
@Vishnu.Reang I had posted this in the political section and I’ll post it here again that Kamala has only been selected because of her Indian origin, and it’s a clever attempt to make Indians vote for the Democrats. Furthermore I don’t think that Democrats would be happy to see her in presidents chair in case something was to happen to Biden, but even if she became the president then too I doubt that she’ll be able to last long because of her outspoken ways.
Sources:
https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Why-Kamala-Harris-was-picked-as-Joe-Biden-s-15476165.php
https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-kamala-harris-on-the-ballot-indian-americans-predict-higher-turnout-11597336615
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-asian-american-women-vote-biden/
Kamala Harris has been chosen by Biden to be his vice president. She is not running for president.
However, the quest for the first female president is real. 2016 showed this and it has been speculated that there is a small group among the Democrats that know Biden might not finish his term because of his age and mental health. That was why they have made sure to pick a female who also belongs to a minority.
However, the quest for the first female president is real. 2016 showed this and it has been speculated that there is a small group among the Democrats that know Biden might not finish his term because of his age and mental health. That was why they have made sure to pick a female who also belongs to a minority.
At this point, the Democrats can't afford to go for a VP candidate from any other ethnic group. Biden is almost 78 years old and he is non-Hispanic white. Donald Trump and his VP pick both are non-Hispanic white. So they had no other options, although better candidates were available. Kamala may be the most suitable candidate, but she is not the best candidate out there.
If you ask me the quest for the first female president of USA is looking stronger than ever. Kamala Harris is a real candidate with some real influence and I think she stands a great chance to win. The only other person I am rooting for is Andrew M. Yang.
If you want to compare stats, you can do so on their wiki pages for their campaigns.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris_2020_presidential_campaign
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang_2020_presidential_campaign
In terms of policies, I think Andrews' are better. FFS HE'S GIVING AWAY FREE MONEY! Only Americans can be dumb enough to not elect either of these 2 as their presidents.
If you want to compare stats, you can do so on their wiki pages for their campaigns.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris_2020_presidential_campaign
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang_2020_presidential_campaign
In terms of policies, I think Andrews' are better. FFS HE'S GIVING AWAY FREE MONEY! Only Americans can be dumb enough to not elect either of these 2 as their presidents.
Kamala Harris has been chosen by Biden to be his vice president. She is not running for president.
However, the quest for the first female president is real. 2016 showed this and it has been speculated that there is a small group among the Democrats that know Biden might not finish his term because of his age and mental health. That was why they have made sure to pick a female who also belongs to a minority.
Definitely seems a reasonable dynamic in play on whether a 3rd party candidate could seriously derail this election in terms of predictability, can that alter 1% or more then a few % of votes away from Biden enough to alter the overall outcome. Nobody takes Kanye seriously and a ton of people never took Trump seriously, he was the punch line on a joke at a white house evening famously. So in elections it seems blind spots matter, Ross Perot if anyone remembers him was another famous 3rd party candidate. A few people think this election is not predictable, probably worth considering the idea with any serious bet. Biden to win remains the upset outcome not default.
https://youtu.be/QRRwBqwKWz4?t=4030
https://youtu.be/QRRwBqwKWz4?t=4030
Man, why are you sure that votes will be ejected from Biden and not from Trump? You never can be sure how 3rd party candidate will affect on another two main candidates, so it is better just to ignore their influence. You think that Kanye will take away votes from Biden, but because he is enough conspiracy theorist, some not to clever people (which would vote for Trump in any another situation) will vote for him. And Trump votes will be decreased.
The twist behind Kanye's running for the President of the United States, is to gather some votes from his past alliance and without a doubt the was Biden. But maybe another twist will happen in the upcoming election is that what you want to tell? When some of the supporters of Donald Trump will turn away from him? Well, as for me this sudden changed of a plan by Kanye West was all part of the strategies by the current administration just to diversify some votes from both of them (Biden and West). I also have a bad feelings that Trump will stay as president after the election.
Jump to: