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Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 12. (Read 6260 times)

legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1277
July 27, 2020, 03:59:28 AM
Biden is comfortably ahead in the polls, but we all know that polls can be inaccurate, can change, and are not representative of the way the EC works.

But probably the most important thing for Biden as we get closer to election time is his relationship with the most powerful man in US politics - Mark Zuckerberg.
Past evidence suggests that Facebook will put its full might behind Trump, and could keep him in power. Biden has come out before as anti-Facebook, anti-Zuckerberg, and has suggested revocation of 230. We have the below for example, from a Biden interview with the NY Times in January:

Quote
Charlie Warzel: Sure. Mr. Vice President, in October, your campaign sent a letter to Facebook regarding an ad that falsely claimed that you blackmailed Ukrainian officials to not investigate your son. I’m curious, did that experience, dealing with Facebook and their power, did that change the way that you see the power of tech platforms right now?

No, I’ve never been a fan of Facebook, as you probably know. I’ve never been a big Zuckerberg fan. I think he’s a real problem. I think ——

CW: Can you elaborate?

No, I can. He knows better. And you know, from my perspective, I’ve been in the view that not only should we be worrying about the concentration of power, we should be worried about the lack of privacy and them being exempt, which you’re not exempt. [The Times] can’t write something you know to be false and be exempt from being sued. But he can. The idea that it’s a tech company is that Section 230 should be revoked, immediately should be revoked, number one. For Zuckerberg and other platforms.Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act says that online platforms aren’t held liable for things their users post on them, with some exceptions. In July, The Times’s Sarah Jeong weighed in on proposed updates to Section 230, arguing that “we should reopen the debate on C.D.A. 230 only because so much of the internet has changed,” but “the discourse will be improved if we all take a moment to actually read the text of C.D.A. 230.”

CW: That’s a pretty foundational laws of the modern internet.

That’s right. Exactly right. And it should be revoked. It should be revoked because it is not merely an internet company. It is propagating falsehoods they know to be false, and we should be setting standards not unlike the Europeans are doing relative to privacy. You guys still have editors. I’m sitting with them. Not a joke. There is no editorial impact at all on Facebook. None. None whatsoever. It’s irresponsible. It’s totally irresponsible.

CW: If there’s proven harm that Facebook has done, should someone like Mark Zuckerberg be submitted to criminal penalties, perhaps?

He should be submitted to civil liability and his company to civil liability, just like you would be here at The New York Times. Whether he engaged in something and amounted to collusion that in fact caused harm that would in fact be equal to a criminal offense, that’s a different issue. That’s possible. That’s possible it could happen. Zuckerberg finally took down those ads that Russia was running. All those bots about me. They’re no longer being run.In October, a 30-second ad appeared on Facebook accusing Mr. Biden of blackmailing Ukrainian government officials. The ad, made by an independent political action committee, said: “Send Quid Pro Joe Biden into retirement.” Mr. Biden’s campaign wrote a letter calling on Facebook to take down the ad. He was getting paid a lot of money to put them up. I learned three things. Number one, Putin doesn’t want me to be president. Number two, Kim Jong-un thinks I should be beaten to death like a rabid dog and three, this president of the United States is spending millions of dollars to try to keep me from being the nominee. I wonder why.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/01/17/opinion/joe-biden-nytimes-interview.html?searchResultPosition=3
legendary
Activity: 3374
Merit: 1824
July 27, 2020, 02:46:32 AM
I believe because of the 2016 elections we are not going to actually know what is going to happen until it is too late and we see the results, right now it is not possible to make a prediction.

If it was any other candidate versus Biden or just two random any candidate, I would have said that Biden will win 100% sure without a single shred of doubt, I would have put all my money, I would have sold my house and go all in (okay not really Cheesy just making a point) and bet on Biden.

However this is Trump we are talking about, he has this cult type of followers that will vote for him no matter what, republicans became party of old people for the longest time and Trump manage to get young people to vote and speak their racist and xenophonic and sexist thoughts freely. Dude had zero chance to win 2016 and I didn't even consider him, yet he won. So, just because it is Trump and not someone else, I will not declare Biden winner until last vote is counted.


I agree with you.

Already in the 2016 presidential elections, the polls proved to be unreliable and inaccurate.
Trump is charismatic in a way and knows how to motivate his followers.
I believe that one part of his voters is highly motivated to go to the elections, much more than the average Democrat voter.
A lot more can happen by November and it is too early to make definitive predictions about the winner.


sr. member
Activity: 1988
Merit: 453
July 27, 2020, 02:35:42 AM
@bryant.coleman while illegal immigrants can’t directly vote but they can always alter electoral college results to hand advantage to the Democrats, and that’s why Trump was keen to change the laws relating to illegal immigration. Furthermore in 2019 he had even threatened to release illegal immigrants in Americas sanctuary cities, to strike a political blow. Lastly it’ll be really interesting to see, what kind of effect will these voters actually have on the upcoming elections.

Let's not forget the fact that a section of the Republicans have supported illegal immigration in to the United States. The GOP is generally regarded as a pro-business party and the business firms need cheap labor in the form of undocumented aliens. Large number of Senators and House members belonging to the GOP have voted in favor of the illegal immigrants in the past. The three pro-immigration bills which were tabled between 2006 and 2008 were supported by the American corporations, which spent somewhere around $350 million to shore up popular support.
hero member
Activity: 2646
Merit: 686
July 27, 2020, 02:09:53 AM
"Illegal immigrants" can't vote, they are illegally there, hell they practically can't even let anyone know they are there, they have to keep quite about it, in order to vote you have to register to vote, how can an illegal immigrant can register to vote if they are illegal?

Illegal immigrants can't vote. That's true. But anchor babies can vote when they become 18 years of age and then they can sponsor their parents as well. Eventually, the entire family becomes US citizens and everyone can vote in the elections. The current wave of illegal invasion started in the 1970s. Most of the first generation illegals have become US citizens by now.

And I don't agree with the argument that illegals need to hide their status. There are sanctuary cities all over the United States (hundreds of them), where it is not possible for the immigration authorities to detain or deport any of the illegals.

@bryant.coleman while illegal immigrants can’t directly vote but they can always alter electoral college results to hand advantage to the Democrats, and that’s why Trump was keen to change the laws relating to illegal immigration. Furthermore in 2019 he had even threatened to release illegal immigrants in Americas sanctuary cities, to strike a political blow. Lastly it’ll be really interesting to see, what kind of effect will these voters actually have on the upcoming elections.

Quote

When President Trump threatened to release throngs of illegal immigrant detainees into America’s sanctuary cities last week, the media and Democrats went bonkers. While the scheme may not pass legal muster, it was “pure genius” as a political ploy.

Quote
No, illegal immigrants aren’t allowed to directly vote for the commander-in-chief yet, but in vast numbers they can dramatically alter the Electoral College to favor Democrats for at least a decade because a state’s electoral votes are based on the number of people residing within that state, not the number of citizens present when the Decennial Census is taken.


Sources:

https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/440136-if-you-dont-think-illegal-immigrants-are-voting-for-president-think-again

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_policy_of_Donald_Trump
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 1217
July 27, 2020, 12:12:07 AM
"Illegal immigrants" can't vote, they are illegally there, hell they practically can't even let anyone know they are there, they have to keep quite about it, in order to vote you have to register to vote, how can an illegal immigrant can register to vote if they are illegal?

Illegal immigrants can't vote. That's true. But anchor babies can vote when they become 18 years of age and then they can sponsor their parents as well. Eventually, the entire family becomes US citizens and everyone can vote in the elections. The current wave of illegal invasion started in the 1970s. Most of the first generation illegals have become US citizens by now.

And I don't agree with the argument that illegals need to hide their status. There are sanctuary cities all over the United States (hundreds of them), where it is not possible for the immigration authorities to detain or deport any of the illegals.
sr. member
Activity: 1638
Merit: 278
July 26, 2020, 03:48:58 PM
Electoral college may not be the perfect solution, but it is much better than those popular vote-based elections. It prevents the deep-blue states such as California and New York from stealing the election by allowing uncontrolled invasion of illegal immigrants.

Let's look at an example. In 1950, California had a population of 10.7 million. Back then, Oklahoma's population was 2.2 million. Since then, the population of California increased by almost 4 times, but that of Oklahoma increased by less than 2x. The reason is that California allowed a lot of illegal immigrants to stay. Now Do you want to give more power to California, just because they broke the law and invited the illegals? I am against that idea. And that's why I always say that electoral college-based system is much better when compared to any popular vote based election systems.
"Illegal immigrants" can't vote, they are illegally there, hell they practically can't even let anyone know they are there, they have to keep quite about it, in order to vote you have to register to vote, how can an illegal immigrant can register to vote if they are illegal?

Also by that same logic there are places like Florida and Texas that gets a ton of electoral college rights as well which they actually use for Republicans most of the time, hence why it is both good and bad for both parties and I think gives equal chances.

Finally popular vote is not the right way for sure, but electoral college is not the right way neither, both of them sucks. Ranking based should always be the choice, that way you get to see two candidates people want most, but also a third and a fourth one getting good amount of attention too which could help american democracy a lot if allowed. Two person for presidential election doesn't sound fair to me, there should be a lot more candidates if you ask me.
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 1217
July 26, 2020, 07:11:11 AM
However, in America the presidency is won not because of the popular vote but because of the electoral college. It takes a different type of campaign strategy to win, I reckon.

Electoral college may not be the perfect solution, but it is much better than those popular vote-based elections. It prevents the deep-blue states such as California and New York from stealing the election by allowing uncontrolled invasion of illegal immigrants.

Let's look at an example. In 1950, California had a population of 10.7 million. Back then, Oklahoma's population was 2.2 million. Since then, the population of California increased by almost 4 times, but that of Oklahoma increased by less than 2x. The reason is that California allowed a lot of illegal immigrants to stay. Now Do you want to give more power to California, just because they broke the law and invited the illegals? I am against that idea. And that's why I always say that electoral college-based system is much better when compared to any popular vote based election systems.
sr. member
Activity: 1914
Merit: 328
July 26, 2020, 01:41:00 AM
I believe because of the 2016 elections we are not going to actually know what is going to happen until it is too late and we see the results, right now it is not possible to make a prediction.

If it was any other candidate versus Biden or just two random any candidate, I would have said that Biden will win 100% sure without a single shred of doubt, I would have put all my money, I would have sold my house and go all in (okay not really Cheesy just making a point) and bet on Biden.

However this is Trump we are talking about, he has this cult type of followers that will vote for him no matter what, republicans became party of old people for the longest time and Trump manage to get young people to vote and speak their racist and xenophonic and sexist thoughts freely. Dude had zero chance to win 2016 and I didn't even consider him, yet he won. So, just because it is Trump and not someone else, I will not declare Biden winner until last vote is counted.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 1460
July 25, 2020, 08:53:48 PM
I remember last time even Trump didnt think he'd win or that was the impression and maybe that did him good because apparently people believed every vote counted and they had to goto the polls or 'their candidate' wouldnt win.   You need people who are heavily attached to that cause and they'll vote no matter what not tactically or because others are.    So I dont find its especially proven.   Trump ran a term similar to how he ran his candidacy, quite bizarre at times and yet he remains and might be there another four years.   If people feel as strongly to vote the democrat candidate then I guess he would not survive that, if people aren't motivated the default win goes to the guy in power the last four years.   Happens in lots of countries that way I think.
Quote

Heres a good chart to show how population distribution varies to terrority, its not showing the electoral collage really but shows how the polls just showing raw numbers isnt enough.   Besides that stats are about probability and possibilities, it cant tell you what will happen just the best guess.

However, in America the presidency is won not because of the popular vote but because of the electoral college. It takes a different type of campaign strategy to win, I reckon.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1277
July 25, 2020, 02:57:26 PM
Heres a good chart to show how population distribution varies to terrority

That's a nice visualisation. Particularly the bottom two images. It does show how simple geographical charting can be very deceptive, and can overemphasise the success of candidates who are popular in rural and less populous areas. There are obviously a lot of complicating factors that mean that a simple 'x% of voters back Trump' doesn't translate very well to chances of electoral success. The 'winner-takes-all' method that most states use means that a lot depends on the outcome in those few crucial swing states, so votes there really have a lot more weight than those in perennial safe states. Here's another chart, this time of the last election, demonstrating how 'winner-takes-all' is not particularly representative of the way that people actually vote.



STT
legendary
Activity: 4088
Merit: 1452
July 25, 2020, 02:26:14 PM
I remember last time even Trump didnt think he'd win or that was the impression and maybe that did him good because apparently people believed every vote counted and they had to goto the polls or 'their candidate' wouldnt win.   You need people who are heavily attached to that cause and they'll vote no matter what not tactically or because others are.    So I dont find its especially proven.   Trump ran a term similar to how he ran his candidacy, quite bizarre at times and yet he remains and might be there another four years.   If people feel as strongly to vote the democrat candidate then I guess he would not survive that, if people aren't motivated the default win goes to the guy in power the last four years.   Happens in lots of countries that way I think.
Quote

Heres a good chart to show how population distribution varies to terrority, its not showing the electoral collage really but shows how the polls just showing raw numbers isnt enough.   Besides that stats are about probability and possibilities, it cant tell you what will happen just the best guess.
hero member
Activity: 2828
Merit: 611
July 25, 2020, 02:01:29 PM
I find that November presidential elections are obviously very important but what people are forgetting once again is the fact that there are a ton of senate races going on as well. Not just in November which will be the bulk of them I think but there is also a lot of them until that day as well. If democrats somehow manage to get the Senate we are talking about actually have both the house and the senate which would give them insane amount of power. The difference is not that big neither.

As far as I know it is 53 to 47 and that is quite close, with just 4 senate seat changes we are talking about a whole lot of changes to everything. Now don't get me wrong, it is quite close to impossible to change 4 seats all at once and it requires hard work, but it looks like democrats do put in that work. If they can manage to do it, we are talking about Trump not being that important even if he gets elected.
hero member
Activity: 2086
Merit: 575
July 25, 2020, 10:24:52 AM

 Oh come on, I get that being careful is cool and all but the game is over, he did his 4 years and people saw what type of person he was and thats it, we are not seriously considering Trump to be president again are we? I mean yeah he became one last time while nobody gave a chance but when nobody gave him a chance and said that Hillary Clinton will certainly be the president, that allowed a lot of people to not vote for her, and for her to not go seek for voters, it was just too much of "hillary clinton will win hands down without a doubt" during all of that 2016 and that caused a lot of advantages for Trump that worked out for him, he worked hard for each vote and spent hundreds of millions of dollars to get there. Clinton just cruised her way into election.

 Biden now may not be doing much, he is not out there canvassing and campaigning too much and you do not see or hear about him all that much but at this point things are different. Back in the day there was two talking points of "trump will lose anyway" and "clinton and trump is basically the same, they are both bad, I am not going to vote for either of them" and those two talks caused him to win. Today you can put an empty bucket against Trump and there are tens of millions of people who will go out to vote for it over Trump. There is no way he could win it again.
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 1217
July 25, 2020, 06:49:55 AM
I do not trust surveys after all because not all of it are legit and they are just surveying specific people and not random people. Trump will gonna win in the next election for sure even Joe Biden is leading in online polls and survey because most of the polls and surveys are fixated and controlled by some people or even organization, so basically it is biased. I do not know why there are a lot of American citizens do not appreciate what Trump did in their country.  Trump is really a good leader and in order to proved it, he have a lot of books that been published in the past.

For the past few decades, the opinion polls conducted in various developed nations (including the United States) have proved to be very close to the actual results. What happened in 2016 can be termed as an outlier, but even then the polls indicted that Trump was surging in the rust belt states, during the last few days. But this time, neutral voters have deserted Trump and he retains votes only from his core support group.
sr. member
Activity: 1456
Merit: 359
July 25, 2020, 03:30:53 AM
A new Cato national survey finds that self‐​censorship is on the rise in the United States. Nearly two-thirds—62%—of Americans say the political climate these days prevents them from saying things they believe because others might find them offensive.

I'm not keen on the Cato Institute, but the survey result sounds reasonable. Trump is in many ways a one-off, but in other ways his performance is much as we'd expect from a right-wing demagogue. The key to gaining and retaining power is to set various categories of 'poor' people against one another. Blaming everything on immigrants is the most common approach, but stoking racial tensions within a nation is also popular. After 4 years of Trump, we can't be surprised to see that the situation within the society is more tense.
I do not trust surveys after all because not all of it are legit and they are just surveying specific people and not random people. Trump will gonna win in the next election for sure even Joe Biden is leading in online polls and survey because most of the polls and surveys are fixated and controlled by some people or even organization, so basically it is biased. I do not know why there are a lot of American citizens do not appreciate what Trump did in their country.  Trump is really a good leader and in order to proved it, he have a lot of books that been published in the past.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1277
July 25, 2020, 03:14:40 AM
A new Cato national survey finds that self‐​censorship is on the rise in the United States. Nearly two-thirds—62%—of Americans say the political climate these days prevents them from saying things they believe because others might find them offensive.

I'm not keen on the Cato Institute, but the survey result sounds reasonable. Trump is in many ways a one-off, but in other ways his performance is much as we'd expect from a right-wing demagogue. The key to gaining and retaining power is to set various categories of 'poor' people against one another. Blaming everything on immigrants is the most common approach, but stoking racial tensions within a nation is also popular. After 4 years of Trump, we can't be surprised to see that the situation within the society is more tense.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 1460
July 24, 2020, 11:42:17 PM
Odds and statistics play too little in politics. Do you remember Hillary had 98% winning chance and Trump only 2%?

only the dumbest of the dumb ever believed that. bookies had odds ~75% in favor of hillary, with polls tending towards the 80% mark---some higher, some lower.

for all we know, 75-80% chances was correct. that means trump would have won 1 out of every 4-5 times. and maybe that's exactly what happened.

keep in mind that biden only has a 6-10 point lead in the polls. there is no comparison to 98-2 in 2016.

However, this is only from what we know from the mainstream stories we read or the polls they create. We do not know what the silent majority is planning and who they would vote.

Also, the number of people in the silent majority is greater than 2016.



A new Cato national survey finds that self‐​censorship is on the rise in the United States. Nearly two-thirds—62%—of Americans say the political climate these days prevents them from saying things they believe because others might find them offensive. The share of Americans who self‐​censor has risen several points since 2017 when 58% of Americans agreed with this statement.

Source https://www.cato.org/publications/survey-reports/poll-62-americans-say-they-have-political-views-theyre-afraid-share

legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1483
July 24, 2020, 04:17:48 PM
Odds and statistics play too little in politics. Do you remember Hillary had 98% winning chance and Trump only 2%?

only the dumbest of the dumb ever believed that. bookies had odds ~75% in favor of hillary, with polls tending towards the 80% mark---some higher, some lower.

for all we know, 75-80% chances was correct. that means trump would have won 1 out of every 4-5 times. and maybe that's exactly what happened.

keep in mind that biden only has a 6-10 point lead in the polls. there is no comparison to 98-2 in 2016.
legendary
Activity: 2436
Merit: 1849
Crypto for the Crypto Throne!
July 24, 2020, 04:03:51 PM
trump's prospects are tied to the economy and markets much more than biden. he represents pro-business policies and an end to stimulus packages that directly benefit the middle class, who is probably getting accustomed to all these coronavirus handouts. with biden in office and a democrat majority in the senate, the handouts will keep coming---some of them will be made permanent and some will also be expanded too.

That's a reason why middle class majority will vote for Trump. If the coronavirus will not break usa economy much deeper, of course. In that case, we will see that yesterday middle class will vote for any socialists (like Sanders or Biden).

It's irony that Sanders is out of president election, it would be more funny to see.

 
that's something to consider. trump represents austerity at a time when such policies are very dangerous politically. the economic data can only be manipulated so much, and his tweets hyping poor numbers can only go so far. and that's one of the most unpredictable things about this election---how bad will things get in the next few months due to the coronavirus madness?

E-X-A-C-T-L-Y!

Everything will depend on what will be with economy in next few month.

hero member
Activity: 2044
Merit: 784
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
July 24, 2020, 01:37:07 PM
Odds and statistics play too little in politics. Do you remember Hillary had 98% winning chance and Trump only 2%?
So if you want to match the correct poll result you need to forget about numbers, probabilities and start to see the political scenario as the masses do, in a simple way. These people are the ones who decide the final result, not the media, the journalists, social influencers, economists...

Sophisticated campaigns, funded by sophisticated sponsors and foundations, which bring sophisticated proposals don't please people very much. People want simple solutions for their needs: jobs, health, security and freedom... More than this is unnecessary and start becoming too much complex. Most citizens don't worry if the candidate is from here or there, immigrant, inherited from Central America, Europe, Asia or if he has support from Hollywood or global organizations. That is worthless propaganda.

Be more sensitive to match the result!
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