Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 14. (Read 6260 times)

It's true that polls
a) represent only a fraction of the electorate, which may quite easily be unrepresentative of the whole, and
b) represent only how people say they will vote, not how they will actually vote.

We can reasonably expect that if we have a candidate who is divisive, and who appeals to people's baser prejudices, and whose skills are largely those of a mob agitator or demagogue... then they may be a sizable proportion of people who will vote for him, but will not admit publicly they they will do so... in which case, yes, Trump's eventual share of the vote may be under-reported in polling.

But I still think Biden will win, and still think that Trump will refuse to accept it.

I speculate that there is a large group of people that is composed of people who want law and order, who want America free of China's opportunism in business and politics and who want American values upheld, only tell other people or the polls that they like Biden but who might really vote for Trump.

Also, some of the sportsbooks have removed the betting hehehe. They are afraid Trump will win hehehe.



House Democrat warns about 'inaccurate' polls: Trump voters 'fundamentally undercounted'
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.), a first-term member who represents a district President Trump won by roughly 7 points in 2016, said that polls showing the president trailing former Vice President Joe Biden are “inaccurate.”

“I don’t believe it,” Slotkin told Politico Magazine when asked about recent polls showing Biden performing well in key swing states, such as Michigan. FiveThirtyEight currently has Biden nearly 10 points ahead of Trump in Slotkin’s state of Michigan.

Source https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/506816-house-democrat-warns-about-inaccurate-polls-trump-voters-fundamentally



Trump has 91% chance of re-election, according to model that got 25 of the last 27 elections right
The political science professor predicts Trump will have an even larger win in 2020 than his 2016 victory.

A political science professor is asserting that President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in November against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth made this political forecast by using the "Primary Model," an election prediction model that has a proven track record, including accurately predicting five out of the last six elections.

"The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November," Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

Source https://www.theblaze.com/news/trump-win-2020-election-prediction-model

Yes incumbent officials has the advantage over other candidates but this also depend on the performance of the current president. So far, trump has done so far and great for America and I think his supporters will still vote for him. Relatively there were many of them so Biden will be having a hard time for this. He should prepare a good platform during the campaign. This is one of the very basis that voters will going to elect a leader. A platform that will help the majority of the people  of the Amerika.

Current president always have advantage,  specially in the time of crisis.
Some supporters believe that God sent Trump to save America and they will be very motivated to vote for him again. 
Polls can be very misleading like in the last Presidential election.
I'm sure that Trump have good chance to win again despite polls.

Do you remember what happened in 2016? Back then no one expected Trump to win, but he managed to beat Hillary. The polls underestimated his support, especially in the rust-belt states. And this time, you are assuming that the COVID 19 pandemic is working to the advantage of Biden. I am not very sure about this. The Trump supporters are ideologically motivated and they will go out to vote no matter how worse the condition is. The same can't be said about Biden supporters. If the turnout is low, it is going to be advantageous for Trump.

Trump is an indecent human being, an abomination. I wish there were more honorable conservatives to take his place. His viewpoint on the western allies feeding off of America is a very rudimentary, layman's viewpoint that resonates with a lot of the populace. The underlying explanations on how these "investments" safeguard the world for American trade, American corporations and allowing America to retain its position is much more difficult to understand than, "I give more money to NATO or WHO, I want money back". This indeed led to a few ruffled feathers and a re-organization of the world order seemed very much inline.

Fortuitously, the Chinese threat rose at almost the right time for US leadership to realize these blunders. Reacting to China has been high on Trump's agenda and he did not miss the chance to do so in the case of recent Chinese aggression at Indian border. China had been playing games for a long time at the SEA-Pacific ocean (Taking cue from @STT and not gonna call it South China Sea). The land based aggression at Indian border probably proved to be the tipping point. This is important because it seems the US leadership is not in the mood to let China become the new Russia (Remember Crimea!!).

The door has long been open for China. It remains to be seen what happens when China takes the crown of prime ideological aggressor from Russia. Meanwhile, China seems to be sending warning to the US Navy in the "South-East Asia-Pacific Ocean" or SEA-Pacific Ocean.

They are probably going to need to rename the sea before China realises they dont own the entire area and every coast line on that sea.   Its already well established that China has no rights to take actions against others in international waters, its very possible they are the aggressor into territory not theirs.   Its one of the big reasons you might suppose the current situation with Dollar and USA as a super power does continue into decades forward because the world has to have some stability to counter rogue states.

It also explains to me why Biden wont win just because he isnt Trump, thats not nearly enough to have certainty of any win.   People will stick with the devil they know, despite Biden being the vice president previously and having some inroads.   I dont feel like its enough presently, the demographic makeup of voters matters alot to guess their direction and momentum.   In a country like India where the majority of the population is below the age of 30, they are substantially different and large changes might occur in that countries political determination but USA is stuck in the mud as it were, you can guess what will happen next by being very similar to the past results and the precedent is that the standing candidate is reelected.

These are all valid points, yes, particularly the one about momentum, which is indeed ever-shifting.

But I do still think Biden will win, in large part due to the Covid19 figures from the US. Lockdown was implemented quite halfheartedly and lifted way too early, with some truly shocking infection numbers as a result. The economic fallout is only just beginning, and I can't imagine that by November the situation will be better than it is now - even if we have a vaccine by that point.

I would not be at all surprised if Biden wins the election, but Trump refuses to acknowledge defeat and just tries to brazen it out by declaring certain aspects invalid or fraudulent or unlawful - postal votes being an obvious possibility.

Can anyone imagine Trump accepting that he's been beaten in a two horse race?

this is when sentiment analysis starts getting interesting---when the outcome seems like a sure thing. makes me wanna bet on trump.

he's still only at 2.9 though. if biden is such a sure thing, trump should get well into the 3s, don't you think?!

beware the timing IMO. we are 3.5 months from the election now. if biden has all the momentum now, expect that pendulum to swing back. trump will regain the momentum at some point, and the closer to the election that happens, the better for him.

I agree that Trump's Covid-19 response has little to do with foreign policy, other than leaving the WHO and the public relations fallout of decisions such as that to buy the complete global supply of remdesivir.
But many of his other decisions point to America turning its back on the world and focusing inwards, which is not what is required in a global leader. For all his belligerent posturing, he is no interventionist throwing troops in everywhere and asserting an American presence. As another example, he pulled out of Syria.
For Trump, it's America First. A consequence of this is that it's 'rest of the world last', which means relinquishing that position as the global leader. The question is does this open the door for China?

I can't completely agree with you. Obviously the US isn't doing that well in its fight against the COVID 19 epidemic, and Trump is responsible for most of it. At least during the initial days, he downplayed the pandemic and refused to take the precautions. The lockdown was only announced after a lot of lives were lost and millions got infected. But that has nothing to do with the foreign policy.

Now talking about the WHO, I believe that he took the right decision. The way WHO handled the pandemic was appalling. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus proved that he was the most incompetent individual to ever become the Director-General of the WHO. IMO, the WHO did more harm than good, with their stupid findings.

All that anyone needs to know is that he's not Trump. As the effects of the mismanagement of Covid19 become more and more apparent, Trump's popularity wanes. Biden doesn't need to do anything to win, Trump is doing it for him.

The unintentional effect of Trump's foreign policy is to weaken the US in the eyes of the world. In areas where the US led the world, they are now a weakness and a liability. The US is the world's strongest nation, and should be leading the fight against this pandemic. But the US is withdrawing from the WHO. The US is withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord. It's almost like a return to pre-WWII isolationism.

Trump is definitely not going to ignore the threat from China. He has followed up his words with real action. This may get him support from various South and Southeast Asian communities, such as the Indians, Filipinos and the Japanese. But we don't know much about Biden. He was the 47th Vice President of the United States, and he served under one of the weakest presidents (Barack Obama). Obama's foreign policy was a failure, at least with regards to China.

I don't think there's much that Biden needs to do now. He is starting to look very very likely to win the race, just as the 'non-Trump' candidate. Trump's woeful mismanagement of the pandemic is obviously a huge contributor to this. People deserve a competent leader, and we are really seeing a concerted effort even amongst some republicans to get Trump out. It's not just support for Republican candidates who oppose Trump, there is even gathering momentum to actually vote Democrat. There is a willingness to accept defeat in 2020 if it means ousting Trump and healing some of the damage he's done to the party, in the hope's of getting back into power with a 'normal' candidate in 2024.

Like Vishnu said, this is going away from US Presidential election but then the geo-strategic issues are of vital importance to Americans too. Especially important is to recognize the Chinese threat. The cold war is long over but with the CCP, this is again going to be a battle of ideological supremacy. As far as Tibet and upper-riparian rights are concerned, nobody was in the mood to question Tibet. It was more of less a settled question with unabated dam building by the Chinese. As per international agreements, they are bound to share information regarding their storage and flow due to these dams. The Chinese used even this as a leverage against India during various standoffs at the border. The aggression has nothing to do with "Control of Tibet".

For the CCP and typical Maoist leaders like Xinpig, this is about realizing their world-view of a dominant middle kingdom. They harp onto a medieval nationalism of Han Supremacy. Why do you think they spend so much on keeping the Uighurs under the boot?? To them, it is about ensuring absolute control utilizing ultra-nationalism. To look strong and decisive within the CCP, Xinpig is forced to takes these steps.

China has no ethical claim to South China Sea or to Indian territories. Whether its Biden or Trump, they can neglect these Chinese noises only at their own peril.

China has become a superpower and is starting to behave accordingly. We are seeing Chinese expansion everywhere, most notably their attempt to control the South China Sea.
One thing I would say about the situation in the Himalayas, and I've said it before in other threads, is that that specific area will be vital in future because it is the source of the major rivers in South East Asia. This is why China puts so much effort into controlling Tibet.
If we look at how the climate has changed in the last couple of decades, and anticipate that this will continue... and then couple this with the fact that SE Asia is heavily populated and becoming more so... control of water sources could be absolutely vital in the world of the near future.

That's a pretty western view. In fact, every year millions of people die who should not have to die, whether it is due to poor hygiene, water and health care or the lack of food. But this does not happen in the industrialized countries but in the developing and emerging countries. Therefore most people in the west do not know this situation. The current pandemic allows us to experience for the first time at first hand the social impact of such poor conditions on people and societies.

Couldn't put it any better.

I don't want to divert the topic, so I will just concentrate on Trump's handling of this issue. The United States administration played a huge role, by sending warships to the South China Sea. China never expected that the US would openly support India during the territorial dispute and it was one of the reasons why they agreed to pullback from the disputed area (Galwan Valley). 

Yep, you are right, business comes for everything in the mind of Trump. Before the pandemic, I visited the US every month for work (Georgia) and there Trump has a lot of fans. He created more jobs for the Americans and economy was booming (stock market reached an ATH). The final result will mainly depend on how the swing states will vote.
I am also curious who will become the running mate of Biden.

Chinese have never let the border issue settle with india and they kept vacillating about exchange of maps as well as demarcation of boundary for the longest time. Like the expansionist, deceitful entity that the CCP is, they wait for the right opportunity to poke India. They simply hate that India is cozying upto other world powers. That throws a wrench in their plans of dominating Asia and then the world. Regaining their historical place as the "Middle Kingdom".

The world's largest democracy at their borders is also pretty much an ideological affront to these Maoists. They obviously hate the comparisons between the Tiger and the Dragon. They regularly fail to make India tow their line, whether it is BRI, Vietnam or getting close with USA. Indian leadership realizes that having normal relations with China is important which is why Indian leaders keep trying to have meetings and summits with them. Yet, they are just too self-absorbed to see anyone at the same level as the CCP. They have a reliable ally in Pakistan to use against India. Indian Army is regularly at conflict at the western border and there is always talk about being ready for a two-front war. This is also one of the reasons that India is one of the largest "importers" of Arms from the developed world.

India is just in a hard place when it comes to geo-strategic reality. A poor neighbor who just wants blood at any cost. Pakistan famously follows the "Bleed India with a thousand cuts" strategy. Their is the historical narrative fed to the Pakistani public about the Muslim ruler conquering the Idol-worshipping Hindus, what they call as "Ghazwa-E-Hind". The other neighbor is a rich and powerful one which is desperate to play the big brother and show its ideological superiority over the world's largest democracy.

United Nations will do close to nothing in the border dispute. It is upto Indian Army and diplomacy to maintain the status quo till the situation erupts and a war--outcome decides the new border. That is just the grim reality. The chinese love to keep this pot simmering. They cannot have a democratic India invest in the well-being of its people in a peaceful manner and march on without any hurdles towards progress.