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Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 13. (Read 6260 times)

legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1159
July 24, 2020, 10:30:11 AM
China unfortunately does have some claim,,, whether or not we like it or if it ethical, but it is not the only country to have such claims and unfortunately, for some reason or other at some point in time or other,,, other countries for political reasons or historical have backed it up.
I think this below was a response to this.
China doesnt have a claim any more then USA has a right to stop people crossing the atlantic, the territorial waters of the chinese mainland only go so far and then its open waters for any ship.   If they intend to start a war or aggression similar to north korea then they will degrade their position in the world.   Really that would be the same whichever party in in control in USA.
Building artificial islands and threatening other countries is just part of CCP's ongoing self-aggrandization.

I'd agree that this is China flexing its muscles. It has risen to superpower status on the world stage, and like any superpower is using its might to get what it wants. Global politics is often far more about who is most powerful than it is about who is morally right. Probably the only way to remedy this is to have a supreme global legal body that has actual and practically enforceable powers - which of course will not happen, as it would be advantageous to weak nations but disadvantageous to the powerful.
It is not simply anymore about China inevitably flexing muscles because its a superpower. The Chinese philosophy and methods are antithetical to the concept of mutual respect and fraternity amongst nations. Chinese operate with an assumption of superiority and being above international law. CCP has shown that it is unsuitable to be an honorable member in the comity of nations. The world cooperated with them and they benefited immensely from the investments and open markets in the last two decades. What did they do in return?? Back-stab everyone, Steal technology, try to undermine social stability and cohesion by playing on fault lines of democracies and use a pandemic as a stock-buying opportunity.

Geo-strategic think-tanks have long battled with the question that what would a rising China look like. It is getting clearer by the day. Ask Hongkongers.
hero member
Activity: 1232
Merit: 858
July 24, 2020, 06:18:27 AM
trump's prospects are tied to the economy and markets much more than biden. he represents pro-business policies and an end to stimulus packages that directly benefit the middle class, who is probably getting accustomed to all these coronavirus handouts. with biden in office and a democrat majority in the senate, the handouts will keep coming---some of them will be made permanent and some will also be expanded too.

that's something to consider. trump represents austerity at a time when such policies are very dangerous politically. the economic data can only be manipulated so much, and his tweets hyping poor numbers can only go so far. and that's one of the most unpredictable things about this election---how bad will things get in the next few months due to the coronavirus madness?

if unemployment pushes back up again in the next couple months (i think it will), that's an extra source of agony for trump. he has his core supporters, but it ain't a majority of voters. he and his campaign need to find a better way to channel the economic suffering that's about to get a whole lot worse with lots of stimulus benefits expiring this month.

I don't live in the US so of course I can't know everything. However, what I see when he pursues a policy of returning industrial enterprises to the United States, when he imposes duties on cheap Chinese goods, when he encourages the creation of new jobs - these are all things that can appeal to the working-age population.

The Democrats could not offer anything other than unleashing wars all over the world and the country's life at the expense of other plundered countries.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 304
July 24, 2020, 04:40:09 AM
There is one thing I know: Nothing happens in America by chance. Everything happens as expected. The leader in the surveys is probably the one to win the elections.

The world is gradually turning into a despotic world. Under these circumstances, I do not expect a different leader to become president.
hero member
Activity: 1792
Merit: 536
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
July 24, 2020, 01:05:59 AM
Quote
South China Sea

They are probably going to need to rename the sea before China realises they dont own the entire area and every coast line on that sea.   Its already well established that China has no rights to take actions against others in international waters, its very possible they are the aggressor into territory not theirs.   Its one of the big reasons you might suppose the current situation with Dollar and USA as a super power does continue into decades forward because the world has to have some stability to counter rogue states.

It also explains to me why Biden wont win just because he isnt Trump, thats not nearly enough to have certainty of any win.   People will stick with the devil they know, despite Biden being the vice president previously and having some inroads.   I dont feel like its enough presently, the demographic makeup of voters matters alot to guess their direction and momentum.   In a country like India where the majority of the population is below the age of 30, they are substantially different and large changes might occur in that countries political determination but USA is stuck in the mud as it were, you can guess what will happen next by being very similar to the past results and the precedent is that the standing candidate is reelected.

The part where the Philippines Economic zone lies was named "West Philippine Sea" by a decree during the time President Benigno Aquino Jr. Some Southeast asian countries also gave names to their part of the disputed territory so that it will not be named South China sea. I would like to call it the "Champa" sea as it was called before during the old empire days of the great Cham empire. China's aggression to the said part of the world has only been watched by the United States possibly only during the past few years as they did nothing to prevent China from building structures in the region during the first 2 decades of the 21st century. The United Nations was also inactive and I say impotent when it comes to implementing rules and regulations they create. It is only this year that Trump became interested (I think) with the said Sea. So I think a Trump victory is crucial for current flexing of the U.S. in South east asia to continue.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 1460
July 24, 2020, 12:09:36 AM
House Democrat warns about 'inaccurate' polls: Trump voters 'fundamentally undercounted'
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.), a first-term member who represents a district President Trump won by roughly 7 points in 2016, said that polls showing the president trailing former Vice President Joe Biden are “inaccurate.”

i posted about this a few weeks ago. i think pollsters have done a lot to repair their failings from 2016 re ignoring rural constituencies and swing state dynamics. the real problem is that trump voters are somewhat atypical compared to traditional republican voters. and it's difficult to know whether they will show up in numbers to the polls or not, or on the other hand, whether the growing contingent of anti-trump republicans/independents will sustain momentum.

A political science professor is asserting that President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in November against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth made this political forecast by using the "Primary Model," an election prediction model that has a proven track record, including accurately predicting five out of the last six elections.

"The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November," Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

very interesting! i suspect that this election is a bit more unpredictable/higher variance than most elections, because 1. trump makes it inherently unpredictable as i mentioned above, 2. the coronavirus, 3. the recession.

just as i did a couple months ago, i think trump is slightly better than a coin flip to win the election, so the current odds are pretty attractive.

Also, 4. the riots from the extreme left that are destroying American monuments, burning books, calling to defund the police and that are supported by democrats.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1483
July 23, 2020, 04:32:38 PM
Trump could win not just because Biden is not liked or China is a danger or any other reason, but because he does have a cult"ish" follower base, they would vote for him no matter what, it could be raining fire and they would still go out to vote.
I would doubt about that. Yeah, there many guys from Texas which will vote for him anyway. But Trump's voting core is white middle class. And i doubt that they all for Trump now (someone because he was not to active against BLM looters and some for another reasons)
I doubt that the middle class will like pogroms in cities when many people's property is suffering. I think that people will vote first of all for those who will restore order and take into account the interests of all normal people, regardless of their skin color and financial status. And such a person in my opinion may well be Trump.

trump's prospects are tied to the economy and markets much more than biden. he represents pro-business policies and an end to stimulus packages that directly benefit the middle class, who is probably getting accustomed to all these coronavirus handouts. with biden in office and a democrat majority in the senate, the handouts will keep coming---some of them will be made permanent and some will also be expanded too.

that's something to consider. trump represents austerity at a time when such policies are very dangerous politically. the economic data can only be manipulated so much, and his tweets hyping poor numbers can only go so far. and that's one of the most unpredictable things about this election---how bad will things get in the next few months due to the coronavirus madness?

if unemployment pushes back up again in the next couple months (i think it will), that's an extra source of agony for trump. he has his core supporters, but it ain't a majority of voters. he and his campaign need to find a better way to channel the economic suffering that's about to get a whole lot worse with lots of stimulus benefits expiring this month.
sr. member
Activity: 728
Merit: 266
July 23, 2020, 04:23:52 AM
China's claim on the territory owned by neighboring countries are not based on historic facts. They have territorial disputes with almost all of their neighbors. In some cases (Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Russia.etc), the neighbors gave in to the demand by China and ceded territory that was previously under their control.
Chinese bullying.

I'd agree that this is China flexing its muscles. It has risen to superpower status on the world stage, and like any superpower is using its might to get what it wants. Global politics is often far more about who is most powerful than it is about who is morally right. Probably the only way to remedy this is to have a supreme global legal body that has actual and practically enforceable powers - which of course will not happen, as it would be advantageous to weak nations but disadvantageous to the powerful.


             Precisely. They are in advantageous position because of their political power and their influence through out the entire globe. The chinese government also is not someone or something that will cower in front of other superpowered countries and would rather choose to fight back than being underestimated.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1277
July 23, 2020, 02:26:23 AM
China's claim on the territory owned by neighboring countries are not based on historic facts. They have territorial disputes with almost all of their neighbors. In some cases (Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Russia.etc), the neighbors gave in to the demand by China and ceded territory that was previously under their control.
Chinese bullying.

I'd agree that this is China flexing its muscles. It has risen to superpower status on the world stage, and like any superpower is using its might to get what it wants. Global politics is often far more about who is most powerful than it is about who is morally right. Probably the only way to remedy this is to have a supreme global legal body that has actual and practically enforceable powers - which of course will not happen, as it would be advantageous to weak nations but disadvantageous to the powerful.
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 1217
July 22, 2020, 11:58:29 PM
China unfortunately does have some claim,,, whether or not we like it or if it ethical, but it is not the only country to have such claims and unfortunately, for some reason or other at some point in time or other,,, other countries for political reasons or historical have backed it up. Trump is not the solution to China however and the voters will soon see that.

China's claim on the territory owned by neighboring countries are not based on historic facts. They have territorial disputes with almost all of their neighbors. In some cases (Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Russia.etc), the neighbors gave in to the demand by China and ceded territory that was previously under their control. Examples are:

1. Pakistan: Ceded the Shaksgam Tract (7,000 sq.km) to China in 1963, although it was a part of the princely state of Jammu & Kashmir
2. Russia: Ceded the Damansky island, Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island and several hundred smaller riverine islands to China in 2008, although they were under the control of the USSR previously.  
3. Kazakhstan: Ceded almost 1,000 sq.km of land to China in 1995
4. Kyrgyzstan: Ceded Uzengi-Kush region to China in 2009
5. Tajikistan: Ceded 1,322 sq.km of land in Pamir to China in 2002

Now the other neighbors may not be that comfortable with ceding their territory to China, which in my opinion is understandable.

And here, I should say that Trump is doing a lot to support those countries which are suffering from the Chinese bullying.
hero member
Activity: 1232
Merit: 858
July 22, 2020, 06:36:17 PM

 Trump could win not just because Biden is not liked or China is a danger or any other reason, but because he does have a cult"ish" follower base, they would vote for him no matter what, it could be raining fire and they would still go out to vote.

I would doubt about that. Yeah, there many guys from Texas which will vote for him anyway. But Trump's voting core is white middle class. And i doubt that they all for Trump now (someone because he was not to active against BLM looters and some for another reasons)


I doubt that the middle class will like pogroms in cities when many people's property is suffering. I think that people will vote first of all for those who will restore order and take into account the interests of all normal people, regardless of their skin color and financial status. And such a person in my opinion may well be Trump.
legendary
Activity: 2422
Merit: 1451
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
July 22, 2020, 06:26:18 PM
In other news, Trump called masks 'patriotic'
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/20/trump-says-coronavirus-masks-are-patriotic-after-months-of-largely-resisting-wearing-one.html

I bet he was sat down and talked down by many experts. There's an entire movement behind denial to wear a mask and general non-conformity with lockdown measures and its almost entirely republicans that are doing it.
Trump had fought hard to make edge statements on vaccines too. My view is that his goal was to earn the vote of people in this growing movement (as opposed to helping the movement itself grow).

In my view, this must have caused trump to lose at least part of the vote of the group he was pandering to. His weak stance on coronavirus handling probably had a damaging effect if anything else. Not in the US more of the people have lost relatives than in other countries. So talk about health care is again on the table.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1483
July 22, 2020, 05:52:48 PM
House Democrat warns about 'inaccurate' polls: Trump voters 'fundamentally undercounted'
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.), a first-term member who represents a district President Trump won by roughly 7 points in 2016, said that polls showing the president trailing former Vice President Joe Biden are “inaccurate.”

i posted about this a few weeks ago. i think pollsters have done a lot to repair their failings from 2016 re ignoring rural constituencies and swing state dynamics. the real problem is that trump voters are somewhat atypical compared to traditional republican voters. and it's difficult to know whether they will show up in numbers to the polls or not, or on the other hand, whether the growing contingent of anti-trump republicans/independents will sustain momentum.

A political science professor is asserting that President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in November against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth made this political forecast by using the "Primary Model," an election prediction model that has a proven track record, including accurately predicting five out of the last six elections.

"The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November," Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

very interesting! i suspect that this election is a bit more unpredictable/higher variance than most elections, because 1. trump makes it inherently unpredictable as i mentioned above, 2. the coronavirus, 3. the recession.

just as i did a couple months ago, i think trump is slightly better than a coin flip to win the election, so the current odds are pretty attractive.
STT
legendary
Activity: 4088
Merit: 1452
July 22, 2020, 05:19:00 PM
Quote
he realized it wasn't his time and it was too obvious that Obama would be easily reelected, so he gave up in 2012
He was fighting mid term which most of the time is not going to happen.  Mitt Romney took a shot that was never likely to work out, not sure he's ever gained from it where as at least Kerry got some job later on hence I guess it was worth that fight for him.    Maybe he was advised, maybe Trump has some sense in his head or perhaps just the feedback at that time did not favour a run.    If somehow Trump has some good reckoning for these fights, better at the election then the actual job it'd be something to note.

Quote
China is a danger

This helps Trump and his general stance if anything because a common enemy will unite.   Its something external to his own mess to blame and if anything Trump is creating this fight.
hero member
Activity: 2646
Merit: 582
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
July 22, 2020, 02:49:03 PM
The only reason why I was laughing about Trump was the fact that he said he was thinking about it in 2012 as well and he wanted to go against Obama but he realized it wasn't his time and it was too obvious that Obama would be easily reelected, so he gave up in 2012 and I thought that was it, dude just learned his place and it was nowhere near political page and he would give up.

Dude came back in 2016 as well and on early days it looked like not a campaign but more like a joke thing, like what Kanye did for example where you do know the candidate, its not someone never heard of , but you find it just a joke. Dude won that election from 1% chance of being nominated by republicans to actually becoming president. So, there is 0% chance I would consider Trump wouldn't be president again, he has a chance 100% for sure, its not going to be as easy as people claim but I believe it could happen.
legendary
Activity: 2436
Merit: 1849
Crypto for the Crypto Throne!
July 22, 2020, 01:10:02 PM

 Trump could win not just because Biden is not liked or China is a danger or any other reason, but because he does have a cult"ish" follower base, they would vote for him no matter what, it could be raining fire and they would still go out to vote.

I would doubt about that. Yeah, there many guys from Texas which will vote for him anyway. But Trump's voting core is white middle class. And i doubt that they all for Trump now (someone because he was not to active against BLM looters and some for another reasons)

This is why Trump could win, whoever will vote for him, will definitely vote for him, Biden on the other hand, will have people who prefer him over Trump but not go out to vote.

Also weird. American society is polarized to it's limits: There will be people which will vote ONLY for Trump or Biden. So question is how much first and second? 
hero member
Activity: 2086
Merit: 575
July 22, 2020, 11:55:13 AM

 Trump could win not just because Biden is not liked or China is a danger or any other reason, but because he does have a cult"ish" follower base, they would vote for him no matter what, it could be raining fire and they would still go out to vote. About democrats? Obviously republicans made sure there were long lines everywhere so far in all congress and senate elections knowing that republicans would wait 12 hours to vote if they have to whereas democrats won't, so they did everything in their power, however that still doesn't change the fact that democrats do not like to vote as much as republicans do. If the number of democrats versus how many of them voted versus the number of republicans versus how much of them voted were ever calculated, we would have seen at least %20-30 difference there, almost all republicans vote whereas only certain amount of democrats vote.

 This is why Trump could win, whoever will vote for him, will definitely vote for him, Biden on the other hand, will have people who prefer him over Trump but not go out to vote.
STT
legendary
Activity: 4088
Merit: 1452
July 22, 2020, 11:21:07 AM
China doesnt have a claim any more then USA has a right to stop people crossing the atlantic, the territorial waters of the chinese mainland only go so far and then its open waters for any ship.   If they intend to start a war or aggression similar to north korea then they will degrade their position in the world.   Really that would be the same whichever party in in control in USA.

Quote
Make America great again ?
- opening concentration camps in the names of detention centres for the immigrants
Quote

Doesn't seem to fit that definition, we're unlikely to predict the election outcome if just assuming a bias and a hope that 1 candidate especially will succeed over the other.   Its dangerous to misstate things when China might well operate concentration camps against certain ethnic groups and political dissidents.

Quote
I should have taken this more seriously,

Last quote I read in passing was Trump admits pandemic will get worse before it gets better.   Not sure if thats correct but it'll save lives to confront the spread and reduce it via any measures people are able to sensible about, the problem is it does requires some recognition across an entire community to be effective.
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1671
#birdgang
July 22, 2020, 08:49:06 AM
Does anyone else think, that the WH bypassing the CDC with Corona reporting is just to possibly manipulate the data ?

I think we have entered phase 2 with this "plan" now Smiley As everyone might have heard, Trump is now advocating wearing masks etc. and he did his first Corona briefing since late April again. Now with the numbers getting possibly (artificially) lower in the upcoming weeks, he can brag about it. At the point HE started telling people how to handle things, the numbers have improved tremendously.

I would be curious to see, what would happen, if Trump did a complete 180. Like telling: I was wrong, this is no hoax, wear masks, do more local lockdowns, I should have taken this more seriously, I am sorry etc. Now this will never happen, but would still be interesting to witness the reactions to it and if it could help him for his ultimate goal of getting re-elected.

hero member
Activity: 2338
Merit: 953
Temporary forum vacation
July 22, 2020, 08:07:39 AM
China has no ethical claim to South China Sea or to Indian territories. Whether its Biden or Trump, they can neglect these Chinese noises only at their own peril.

Trump is definitely not going to ignore the threat from China. He has followed up his words with real action. This may get him support from various South and Southeast Asian communities, such as the Indians, Filipinos and the Japanese. But we don't know much about Biden. He was the 47th Vice President of the United States, and he served under one of the weakest presidents (Barack Obama). Obama's foreign policy was a failure, at least with regards to China.

China unfortunately does have some claim,,, whether or not we like it or if it ethical, but it is not the only country to have such claims and unfortunately, for some reason or other at some point in time or other,,, other countries for political reasons or historical have backed it up. Trump is not the solution to China however and the voters will soon see that.
hero member
Activity: 1890
Merit: 831
July 22, 2020, 05:10:15 AM
See :

When I first heard that Trump is running in the elections , I was laughing at him , about how a guy would care to even compete with such low values . But then I realized people of America did not really care ! How did the man win remains an unsolved mystery.
Make America great again ?
- opening concentration camps in the names of detention centres for the immigrants where kids are dying and being trafficked , at the same time women are harassed everyday.

There are a lot of things but I do think we cannot just decide like this , people do want something different. What we need is a person like Obama to run for the elections again .

Plus many celebs are saying how they will run for election this year , it's funny.  It's not a game that anyone can play .

Polls can be very misleading like in the last Presidential election.
I'm sure that Trump have good chance to win again despite polls.

It's true that polls
a) represent only a fraction of the electorate, which may quite easily be unrepresentative of the whole, and
b) represent only how people say they will vote, not how they will actually vote.

We can reasonably expect that if we have a candidate who is divisive, and who appeals to people's baser prejudices, and whose skills are largely those of a mob agitator or demagogue... then they may be a sizable proportion of people who will vote for him, but will not admit publicly they they will do so... in which case, yes, Trump's eventual share of the vote may be under-reported in polling.

But I still think Biden will win, and still think that Trump will refuse to accept it.


I totally agree with the fact that this represents a fraction and we cannot really count on it.

- I personally think we need a person who is able to connect with all th communities not just the white one's.
- Someone who can actually care about other people and is respectful.
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