Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 17. (Read 6237 times)

a house democrat is warning that the same poll skewing that happened in the 2016 is happening again. she thinks trump voters are being severely undercounted:


kamala is still the most likely IMO, then susan rice, then tammy duckworth. i don't see any other front runners emerging in the next 3 weeks. biden vowed to make his pick by august 1st.

Sometimes I feel that whoever loses this election 2020, will blame coronavirus for this. They will claim that they were not being able to involve with their workers and were not able to perform pre-elections campaigns properly. Covid-19 could be an easy excuse for losing the USA elections for both the parties.

I speculate everyone who was a rich pedophile used his services, however, who will use Ghislaine as a witness and who will have a deal with her? The people behind Trump, I reckon.

Also, I predict Biden might choose Susan Rice as his vice president.

@STT. Similar to 2020 hehehe.

Its quite ironic that the people who riot who risk their lives in some cases would not also be voters.   People have died in order to gain the ability to vote, I remember a story recently of someone who walked over 20 miles to be allowed to vote.    Why people cant be allowed to vote via registered post and address setup I dont think it quite right, I've worked till 9pm on voting day and missed my chance just because I was fall down tired and the choice was too expensive to me.
We tried this in the 1930's and like many things in capitalism that are ironic it doesn't result in prosperity.   Reducing the sources of products especially resources imported to a business to resale after further work means the costs rise to that business and it becomes noncompetitive.    If China floods the market with tons of good quality steel at 1 cent a ton then its a gift, take it and use it to manufacture.   I understand their tactics is to force out competition but its more destructive not to allow free trade so I'd focus of regulation of safety and quality standards as the quality of some China products is diabolical.   Just a plain tax and nothing gained in that restriction is not a benefit but QC, fines, confiscation even could be the better route.
   Trump doesnt have especially good policy that I can see, he got through some red tape in a few cases but overall he hasnt reformed the system to fail people less.   Will people vote differently knowing that I'm not sure, I think its their wallet weight on the day of voting pretty much because thats quite a simple feedback applying to everyone.

I should post this before I lose the link, literally the data captured 4 years ago showing the underdog situation at that time and how unlikely the later win was seemingly:

 Its weird to think that people who "dislike people who riot and bring down racist and slave owner statues down will go out to vote" but people who are "protesting and bringing down statues of people who used to fight for right to own other human as property wouldn't go out". I mean one party is already out, there is covid, there is police killing people (already 22 people died by police since George Floyd died, so it continues) and even though they are brave enough to bring down their enemies statues, you think that those people won't go out to vote, but people who are too scared to face them and go out to stop those rioters and just chill at home watching fox news, would go out in bigger numbers?

 I know republicans love to make their own reality, but thats just missing simple logic, you gotta realize how much you are wrong when you are actually saying the words when you are THIS wrong.

it's always hard to look at mass media to take conclusions but I'd avoid using absolutes (always/never) when itcomes to politcs

anything can happen.

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-trumps-eroding-125310323.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/06/04/more-signs-emerge-that-trumps-base-is-eroding/

cambride analytica is not as strong as it one was.
things are always changing

Kamala Harris is not an extreme left candidate, she is surely left of Biden that is for sure, but that is mainly because Biden is a centrist and not a leftist, Kamala Harris is definitely leftist as well, however when you say extreme left you either mean "regular left" in all of other world and mean Bernie Sanders who is a bit extreme leftist in USA, not in other nations, or you mean someone who is not even in USA and just purely high level communist.

So, I would say the level would go : Biden to Kamala to Bernie to Mao for example, that is how the projection would go. Biden and Harris ticket would really not be great, I would support Biden/Warren for example. Warren is not as leftist as neither Kamala nor Bernie, however Warren is still a "bit" leftist compared to Biden, at least she cares about education being cheaper and providing more to kids, which shouldn't really be a trouble, but for some reason in USA it actually is a problem and weirdly enough that "tiny bit" of leftist could really be good for USA.

it's a fine line. the dems need to energize progressive and black voters, especially in this coronavirus context where poor turnouts will only help republicans. that's not easy to do considering biden was the most right-leaning of all democratic candidates. i may be wrong about this, but my belief is that biden's VP pick is much more important to democrats than potential swing voters and 2016 non-voters, who are focused on trump vs biden.

this is what i'm talking about re republican-leaning moderates, senior citizens, independents, etc: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/us/politics/biden-2020-third-party.html


biden appears to have a strong edge among third party and swing voters, whereas trump had that advantage in 2016.

the big question mark for me is voter turnout and specifically the fate of mail-in voting. trump knows a big turnout will basically guarantee a biden victory, hence his filing of various lawsuits attempting to stop mail-in voting before november: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/19/trump-interview-mail-voting-329307

They can create as much scandal as they can try, Trump could pay that women (epsteins partner) off and just make her sing like a bird about all the democrats, tell everyone that Bill Clinton raped hundreds of under 10 year old kids, boy and girl. At this point I doubt it really matters.

First of all Trump and Melanie has a picture with Epstein and that woman, so that means if anything actually used his "services" it was Trump for sure and also Republicans lost the right to talk about ethics the moment they picked Trump, a guy who brags about just grabbing woman's nether parts and a guy who was with a pornstar while his wife was giving birth and god knows how many other stuff he has done that was super unethical. At this point I would rather see OJ Simpson as president than Trump and that is saying something.

I was bored during the Corona crisis so I finally watched Michael Moore's 11/09 Fahrenheit documentary. I did expect a pure piece of Trump bashing. To be honest, for the most part it is. But the Democrats didn't get off scot-free either. Especially the ridiculous nomination of Hillary Clinton as presidential candidate. But also the Obama affair in Flint (Michigan) was really intense, not to be expected from a "Peace Noble Prize Winner". So it's no wonder Trump won Michigan. If that's the way it goes in other states as well, then the race is still open because the Democrats also have a lot of skeletons in the closet. And Biden was like Clinton part of the Obama administration. A lot of people have certainly not forgotten that.

I would say Kamala Harris is going to do more harm than good to the Biden campaign. If he wants to sweep the swing states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa.etc, then he should select someone who is a moderate and not an extreme-left candidate such as Harris. Tammy Duckworth is being talked a lot as the VP candidate nowadays, and I should say that she is much more beneficial to Biden than Harris.

Yep, you are probably right here. I live with a female "president" for ages already and all good, so I maybe find it a bit weird, that people still kind of refuse to vote for a female politician/leader, when there are very good examples of women leading countries successfully. It shouldn't be about gender, but about quality in the end. (And as a personal note: I think the world would be a better place, if we only had women as leaders).

What also is a bit strange to me, is the fact of a rather old gentleman running for presidency. Age shouldn't be a criteria as well, but Biden is showing signs of just being a bit too old already. Here, a politician of his age, would just enjoy his retirement and a fat pension, maybe showing up in some political talk shows from time to time. I don't think we have any active politician being 75+.

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My issue probably is, that I just look until November 3rd 2020, I basically don't care what happens afterwards, while those people that actually go voting look for everything that might happen after Nov 3rd And during this time window I see Trump being way stronger against Biden than he was against Hillary. While Biden always comes over as a bit clumsy to me, Hillary was very good in verbally defending herself. Just from a rhetorical point of view, not necessarily content-wise. And as I said before, I expect Trump to eat Biden alive in the debates

So that is a practical guess. I am not from U.S but Trump name is was going politically always mention in news. Trump as a leader of a a great nation facing lot of challenges including this pandemic.

The U.S had recorded a huge number of covid19 cases and has higher deaths recorded. So whoever will be the next president this surely bring a real challenge.

Betting on the election would be fun yet so where could this be done and what platform?

I reckon that there might be many patriotic Americans who are not political but would vote for Trump because they dislike the fringe extreme leftists who riot and tear down historical statues. Do not underestimate how many those type of voters are.

Also, Trump has a strong voter base that would never leave him.

that's one of the reasons trump is weaker this time around. he can't rely on "drain the swamp" rhetoric anymore. he's an incumbent. he is the swamp.


weaker perhaps as an overall politician, but in the context of a presidential election i disagree. people are still in denial about how hated hillary is/was. i hated her, and i'm no republican. i don't think the USA was nearly ready to elect a woman president either.

a centrist old white guy (biden) with executive experience will appeal to republican moderates and senior citizens who are tired of trump. meanwhile, the dems can throw the identity politics crowd a bone by signing on a black woman VP like kamala harris.

a biden/harris ticket is stronger than clinton/kaine was in 2016 IMO.

I'm not an expert either. Moreover, I do not live in the USA. But personally, I am sure that the majority of citizens will vote for Trump. People like his actions to increase jobs, which is facilitated by the return of many industries from China, limiting migration and other steps in this area. It would be good if he had a serious competitor. So there will be more winnings from betting on Trump.

I agree with this statement because of what I am seeing in today's news in the United States. There are lots of problems with Trump's speech and looks like it all contradicts his statements like for example the solution to the pandemic which crippled most of the business in the US. He only said that the problem is soon to be solved but the problem is multiplying almost every day.

I would say that he was "relatively unknown" as a politician, but in general as an individual he was widely known (?). He was no newbie on the TV screens of US citizens and I knew him well before as well; being someone not living in US

He is definitely not as strong as he was in 2016 and does not have this newcomer effect anymore. However not everything he does/did is bad or he wouldn't had ok-ish approval ratings for a long time and don't forget he was odds favourite to win the election not long ago. If Corona never happened, he probably would still be, but ever since this virus showed up in USA, he handled the situation poorly imo and not like you want your political leader to handle it (in the eyes of the majority).

He has probably done good in home affairs up until Corona, but burned quite some bridges in foreign affairs and there are only few countries, that cheer for him to remain president (Putin would be happy I guess). But he never made a secret about his intentions (America first, MAGA) and from what I can judge, at least in that department he wasn't doing too bad and his populist decisions were liked by those who want to like them or like them whatever it is. If this is good longterm for the US is another story then.

Being not as strong as in 2016 doesn't necessarily imply that he will lose this election, because he has another opponent this year (whom I still consider weaker than Hillary all things considered).

Once again, you guys are assuming that what happened in 2016 would repeat in 2020. That is not going to happen, and we saw that during the 2018 senate elections. Even states which were once considered as Republican strongholds, such as Arizona ended up electing Democrat senators. The reading on the wall is loud and clear. Trump was relatively unknown in 2016, and it worked to his advantage. But now people have realized that he is as bad as anyone out there.

When I talk to my friends in America, they also say that ordinary voters are tired of traditional politicians and no longer trust them.
Trump won the last presidential election because he did not run as a traditional politician but as someone who wants to change politics and return power to the people.
Of course, we can say that Trump has proven to be an incompetent politician and is responsible for a large number of people dying in America due to coronavirus, and he seems to show great ignorance and arrogance in many other things and decisions but in the end the only thing that matters is how the average American perceives Trump.
Although polls show that Biden has a big advantage, the unreliability of the polls has already been shown, so I wouldn't trust them much.
People will decide, not polls