Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 27. (Read 6240 times)

It's funny, what little things can do to betting odds. After weeks of isolation at home, Biden showed up in public again at Memorial Day, had some interviews and calls Trump a fool for mocking face masks, there was quite some movement in the markets:


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128151441

His odds for Democratic nominee also went down to 1.11 (from 1.16-ish). And look at Cuomos odds above, they nearly doubled

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And some stuff (maybe) regarding his cognitive state:

Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8364247/Joe-Biden-campaign-denies-confused-D-Day-Pearl-Harbor-anniversary.html

Phew.

Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8364247/Joe-Biden-campaign-denies-confused-D-Day-Pearl-Harbor-anniversary.html

But still a bit alarming imo. If something like that happens in one of the Presidential Candidates Debates, Trump will eat him alive on TV.

Trump was such a trainwreck as a candidate, it was unbelievable like a SNL sketch.    Ironic that Hilary appeared to shrug and prepare for inevitable victory, totally the worst thing a candidate can ever do or say so deserved to lose regardless of opinions.

There is no way Trump can pay off the national debt in 4 or even 10 years, thats just a blatant lie for anyone who completed high school maths and bothers to look at the figures for 5 minutes.


It really is not clear, theres multiple factors that could throw this race to the extremes.    Having followed these elections since Clinton was in office, I'd say this one is the most liable to upset.    The golden rule is 2 terms is the norm barring economic upset and thats just happened.

trump was slandered to hell before winning in 2016.

remember "grab 'em by the pussy"? or the ~25 women who accused trump of sexual misconduct/assault? it didn't stop him from winning.


lol. hell will freeze over before that happens. the national debt increased from $20 trillion to $25 trillion under trump.

It's quite clear that Donald Trump is going to get re-elected for a second term.

Biden is being slandered to hell and there's practically no other front-runners.

Donald Trump pledged to pay off the entire national debt within his next term if re-elected. That's quite an incredible pledge that might just be enough to secure him the victory later this year.

That said, I really hope he gets kicked to the curb. He's downright dangerous as a president.

yes, which is why i said earlier that biden wins the 2020 election 8 or 9 times out of 20 IMO. this is most definitely not a shoo-in for trump.

trump does have several advantages though, one of which is the "wartime" mentality of the coronavirus crisis, which causes people to rally behind leaders in power. we have seen this across the world over the past few months. despite his administrations repeated blunders, trump's popularity has still increased from pre-pandemic levels, although i will admit his numbers have slid significantly since peaking in april.

so much hinges on economic performance in the coming months. much of trump's base is working class. if the economy drops off a cliff as some are predicting, their suffering will become a political crisis for him. that will tip the scales towards joe biden.

tbh i'm baffled by the trump administration's strong pushback against demand side stimulus spending right now considering how close we are to the election. this is part of the reason his numbers are sliding. i think he and his advisers (and mitch mcconnell too) are taking huge political gambles by becoming the figureheads for austerity during the worst economic crisis in our lifetimes.

if they play their cards wrong, they may become the most hated politicians in the country, and people will be begging for anyone but trump and the republicans come november.

to put this another way: the possible outcomes are extremely polarized, but 5-6 months out, the odds are still relatively close to 50-50 IMO.

one other important factor to consider is that low voter turnout (reinforced by coronavirus and republican cockblocking of any vote-by-mail schemes) is a strong advantage for republicans. if there is a second wave of coronavirus in the fall, this may play a huge factor.

Biden is not close to the support Hilary had and also Trump himself is not comparable as he was the dark horse in that race yet came through from the electoral collage and representation that way.   Now he has the standing advantage which makes Biden the outsider and lacks the advantage of being the man to drain the swamp, not that I'd argue Trump implemented any proper change to business but thats his campaign image at least.

You doubt the recuperative effects of a golf course.   There's only one real threat health wise here which is the virus and considering the age of all the candidates that's a real consideration for me in betting on outside chances to occur.

Back in 2016, it was Hillary's election to lose. And this time, it is Biden's turn. The Demography within the United States has changed so much to the extent of giving a major advantage to the Democrat candidate. Unless Biden makes some big blunder, he should win. But as you pointed out, if he makes some political gaffe, then it can turn around the election narrative and give advantage to Trump.

@figmentofmyass
You are right to say "these are not normal times" for the presidential elections in America. Trump has made many mistakes and Biden can beat him.
Trump has lost popularity for the +100,000 deaths from the coronavirus, we can also see scandals due to racism as in this tweet. Death of a black man who was brutally killed by a Minneapolis police officer.

https://twitter.com/jockosims/status/1265335591295758339?s=20

However, would it continue to be a secondary issue during the 2020 presidential election? I speculate that his mental fitness might become the biggest issue if Biden will do the accidental gaffe during the debates versus Trump hehehe.

if the remaining primaries are cancelled, biden won't legally receive the required delegate count and i believe the chances of a brokered convention would increase. in fact, the sanders campaign made very clear when he dropped out that he wanted to remain on all primary ballots to gather delegates for the DNC, to put pressure on the democratic party platform.


biden is still by far the most likely democratic candidate. still, these are not normal times.

the cancellation of primaries and threat of a second wave during presidential elections in november are creating a lot of uncertainty. there is speculation about an electoral college vote even if popular elections are cancelled, or otherwise that constitutional rules for succession (which have never been used before) will come into play. https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/what-if-coronavirus-cancels-election-answer-will-make-you-want-ncna1195791

Even if he is having health issues, the media is not going to highlight them. And in a country which is sharply polarized such as the United States, health concerns are always secondary. The Trump presidency since 2016 has polarized the Americans like never before. Now we have only two types of people. Those who want to elect Trump and those who don't. Whether Biden is healthy enough or not, is simply irrelevant here.

But these health issues is exactly what OP considered when placing his bet on a different candidate. And that's something a lot of us here in this thread agree on: Joe Biden's not really in a condition to run a country. Even now he already makes weird statements sometimes and gets things mixed up. But the thing is not over after the election in November. Quite the contrary. The real work for him will only have started. Beeing president is a hard and stressful job. If Biden really gets elected, I doubt he'll be able to serve the full 4 years term.

There is a real chance that the remaining primary contests may be called off. In that case, Biden with 1566 out of the 2704 (58%) of the delegates declared so far will be confirmed as the Democrat nominee. I don't think that any of the other candidates are going to challenge this decision, especially as Bernie has endorsed Biden a few months back. If there is no unforeseen emergency, such as health issues, then Biden will be the Democrat candidate.

tulsi gabbard dropped out 2 months ago.

biden won't win 99% of the remaining delegates. even though bernie sanders dropped out in early april, he's still been getting ~30% of the delegates in the subsequent primaries.

at this rate, it still won't be enough to prevent biden from clinching it before the DNC. sanders needs to start picking up more delegates. in terms of game theory, if sentiment among democrats turns strongly against biden with big primaries like pennsylvania, new york, and new jersey still to be decided, then that creates incentives to vote sanders, to keep biden from winning the nomination outright.

Yes, with a gun to my head, I would also pick Biden of course. But in betting terms I am looking for valuable odds and I don't see any value in Bidens odds, so either the odds for him are fair or there is some value in other odds, since there is no house edge in the markets. And we also have to look a bit into the future and anticipate, which is not always easy of course. Maybe Biden will say some more stupid things, more scandals will get digged out by whomever, he could get Corona - all those things. The election is not tomorrow

@tyKiwanuka I don’t think that Biden will be replaced now, as he’s successfully united a divided democratic party ahead of the presidential elections. However if we were to assume a hypothetical scenario then he would only be removed if his loose statements continued to hurt Democratic party’s voter base, e.g. he has sensationally claimed that black Americans are not black if they vote for Trump.

Sources:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54489966

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/us/politics/joe-biden-donald-trump-2020.html

Yes, figment explained very well, thanks for that. The market in the screenshot you quoted is for next president, not democratic nominee. For democratic nominee market looks like this:


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128161111

So there is still some possibility for Biden not to be Dem nominee, just like there is for Trump (he is @1.08 rn). I opened that Cuomo trade, because of a) the health issues he has/had, which could lead to him being unable to run for presidency no more and b) for the little possiblity of the Democrats somehow wanting to have someone else to compete against Trump, because they see better chances with him. As I said numerous times, I think ANY candidate just a little bit more charismatic and a bit younger maybe, should easily beat Trump and I saw Cuomo just being that while watching his pressers every day, when the situation in New York was so bad. Now we also have c) with these sexual assault things, where we don't know yet, how it will play out in the end (not a lot impact imo).

As I also stated in first post, I lack deeper understanding of how this would all work, once Biden would step down for whatever reason in the end. But figment and other people explained the modus operandi and I would never stake a penny on that @1.15 for Biden Dem nominee above. Still a long way to go until November. That Cuomo trade is not looking good at the moment though and is in red Lets see, if I can turn it into profit in the next weeks/months.

^^^ There is no chance that Biden will fall short of the required number of primary delegates. Out of the 2,704 delegates declared so far he has got 1566. And only two candidates remain in the race - Biden and Tulsi Gabbard. If the outstanding primary elections go ahead as planned, then I expect Biden to win at least 99% of the remaining delegates. IMO, he'll end up at somewhere around 2,800.

it wouldn't be as an independent candidate. cuomo is a democrat, plus no third party has a chance in hell of winning.

cuomo's only shot is via a brokered democratic national convention. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

to win the democratic nomination outright, biden needs 1991 delegates. he only has 1566. if he doesn't win the nomination outright and he doesn't get a majority of delegate votes in the first voting round at the DNC, then the convention would be brokered. delegates can then switch their allegiances in the next round of voting, which could result in a nominee besides biden.

to give some perspective on the likelihood, there has not been a brokered convention since 1952 (eisenhower), and the last conventions that "came close" were in the early 1980s.

at these odds, gavin newsom is a more interesting play to me than cuomo. both are extreme long shots.

I did not follow the primaries that closely and I have to admit that I am not an expert in US politics at all but isn't it already (at least inofficially) settled that Joe Biden will be the candidate of the Democrats? Does Cuomo, to have an actual chance, have to run as an independent candidate?