Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 26. (Read 6240 times)

You know what all of these riots manage? They manage to rile up people to go out and vote, people who are upset about the current situation and everyone who is mad, will probably go out and vote to remove Trump from the office. You know what is more interesting?

People who are upset about a black person being killed by a cop and started protests and riots about it, probably didn't voted for Bernie Sanders the candidate that has been supporting black and all minority communities since early 60's early teenage and young adult ages. There is even pictures of him at 1968!! that he got arrested for supporting black rights.

If America wants the right politicians, they should not just riot when something bad happens, but they should go out and vote, 34% of people age between 18 and 24 vote, that means 66% of them do not even vote. Go out there and vote for every single democrat in every single county and you will see a HUGE change in politics.

i very much doubt that. white voters who were willing to polarize based on racial lines already did so a very long time ago. that's already been one of trump's core voting contingents.

you really think white liberals are gonna become trump supporters because he supports cops who kill unarmed people, and because he supports crushing protests with the military?

odds update:





trump's odds are sinking like a stone. 49-42 trump advantage is now a 45-47 trump disadvantage in just a couple weeks!

For me, it looks like Trump want the rioting to continue. He is threatening to deploy the armed forces, but I am sure that it is never going to happen. Trump wants the riots to go on for a few days. There will be a lot of damage to public and private property and then there will be a sentiment among the working class against the rioters. Then he will suppress the rioting with an iron hand, and it will win him additional supporters.

From what I could see, a lot of rioting is going on even now (over the George Floyd murder issue). Curfews have been declared in a number of states, and my guess is that this situation is going to benefit Trump. This is how I think - Black voters were polarized in favor of the Democratic Party, even before the murder. Now all this rioting is going to cause a counter-polarization of white voters in favor of the Republican party.

What will happen in Michigan going to change a lot of stuff as well, we all know Michigan has a lot of black voters and there is also a lot of elderly white folk there as well (from GM time there is tons) and that is why the state is divided so much, between white old folk who is known to heavily go for republicans and black voters who are known to vote democrat, its going to be a rough toss up. We all know Trump and Biden did everything in their power to make sure Trump wins there, but I am still not sure.

Trump supported the people who took up arms and rushed government building, which in any other nation could be resulted with you getting shot down, nobody has the power to pick up automatic rifles and rush a government building in other nations but Americans have weird understanding of gun rights. Biden also said to a black famous celeb he wasn't black if he didn't voted for him. So right now, they Michigan looks a bit more Trump but even with all of that, its still close, if Biden learns how to behave a bit, he could have win it easily.

holy shit, even odds on biden vs trump?! that was fast. i feel like trump had a 7-point lead just a couple weeks ago.

trump has now lost the entire "coronavirus bump" to his approval ratings: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

the george floyd protests may be a contributing factor. floyd was an unarmed black guy killed on duty by a white cop in minnesota. protests and riots are now erupting nationwide about police violence and racial injustice. trump responded by threatening to bring the military down on protestors. he also tweeted "when the looting starts, the shooting starts" which was widely viewed as incendiary and deleted by twitter moderation for "glorifying violence". he is now embroiled in a war with twitter and has even threatened to shut down social media sites entirely for questioning him. https://time.com/5843107/trump-threatens-social-media-twitter-fact-check/

with unemployment at staggering levels and continuing to rise, the protests and looting probably contain elements of economic unrest, which would be a very bad development for trump. this could evolve into a bigger political crisis if this level of social unrest sustains. fun fact: FDR was the last president re-elected with double digit unemployment. this was in 1940.

his war on twitter IMO is a sign he is getting worried about his ability to control the narrative. interesting developments all around!

Recent movement in the markets confirm that to a certain extent


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128151441

It's also ~4% surebet with betonline.ag (2.16 Trump at Betfair, 2.04 "The Field" at betonline), if anyone is interested.

-

Checking the odds for Arizona and Florida, Florida still seems a coin toss, while Democrats have slight advantage in Arizona:

Democrats odds: ~1.7 = ~58%
Republican odds: ~2.4 = ~42%

 What made the biggest difference in 2016 was the fact that Hillary didn't really went to states that she needed to win, and those states went to Trump easily because he at least had rallies there. Now this doesn't mean that people who would have voted for Hillary voted for Trump just because Hillary didn't showed up, that could be true but thats not the big reason, thats a small amount of people, the real reason is in USA people do not vote too much, its not a high %90ish level voting country, so when Trump shows up, the people who would have voted for Trump or not voted at all goes out and votes for Trump, but people who would vote for Hillary but she didn't showed up decides not to vote for anyone.

 Once again Democrats are doing the same mistake, Biden is staying idle, sure there is pandemic so he has a better reason for not travelling than Hillary, and he can't just organize rallies because pandemic would create many sick people out of just one rally, hence Biden do have a good reason why he is not doing it. But he is not on TV that much neither, dude basically acts like he is not the nominee for USA presidency at all, hence once again Trump could win only because his opponent is losing, not because Trump is winning.

Recent opinion polls show Trump trailing badly in crucial states such as Florida and Arizona. The polls may be wrong (just like the case in 2016), so I am not going to comment about them. I would still say that Trump is not getting any boost from this pandemic. 


I would agree with you on this. One of the plus points with the Trump presidency is his tough handling of China. The Chinese have been put under a lot of pressure, and they were forced to make concessions.


Even now he is not changing his stance. He is in favor of opening the churches, despite the warnings from experts. Blaming China won't save him, if the virus continues to kill thousands of Americans every day.

I think this thread is going reasonably well tbh for…..

a) being in gambling section, where a lot of people are forced to post, even if no "gamblers" and
b) being about a rather generic topic, where everyone could write a few words and has an opinion.

I only deleted a few posts that I found very spammy, but all in all I think the users engaging here are putting good effort in their posts (again: compared to other generic threads in gambling). For my liking it's missing a bit the betting/odds aspect in the posts, but that is not only an issue of this thread. Some posts are maybe more suited for threads in other boards about US politics, but no need to be super strict as long as there is effort to be seen imo.

US politics and especially Trump will always polarize and “misinformation, bias, lies, truth, facts” is just part of this show. In regards to betting, this is pretty interesting, because you CAN always only see what you want to see. The difficulty lies in being objective and weighing all information accordingly. As a non-betting person, I can just look from one perspective, but as a betting person, I need to check both sides and figure out the sentiment – regardless of my own preferences. This is not always easy, but this thread helped a bit with that maybe and all in all I enjoy reading the posts here and engaging a bit from time to time.

It might not only be that issue. This coronavirus pandemic appears to show that America needs a war time president. I speculate that the independent voters might stay with Trump to avoid the risk with Biden.

Trump has been a little successful in pressuring China in their trade deals. Also, the Hunter Biden China issue, the General Flynn issue and other issues under Obama. This might not be good for the democrats during the presidential campaign.

Trump's main issue against him might be the poor handling of the pandemic. This issue is easy. Blame China hehehee.

The problem is that many people can't understand anything about modern economy. They called the model where you cant create endless debt and printing money - "macroeconomics". Every idiot from economic university will tell you that this is normal and ok, so your argument about Trump and decreasing debt is shit (in the eyes of this idiot, of course).

But as ukrainian, i can't support Trump mostly because his idea to beat China in any way. And to beat China he needed to have good relationships with Russia, and Russia this is the main enemy of our country (i think you're familiar with causes why so). All his words that "Ukraine is part of Russia" and so on.

But if correspond to topic main purpose, i ll tell this again - Trump will win. This is my bet.

Unabashed, proud 'Murican from the San Francisco Bay Area.  Yeah, I'm thankful for Trump.  I didn't vote for him, even though I liked all the things he promised.  I just assumed he would turn out like every other politician; making promises he has no intention of keeping.  Unlike the others, he has worked his ass off to keep those promises.  Whether you like what he's promised or not, you have to give the man credit for trying.

Rest assured, I'll be voting for Trump this time around, and I'm not the only Californian who feels this way.  Given that California is one of the (if not THE) most liberal states in the country that ought to tell you something.

Actually, I haven't seen this for a few weeks, from. What I know its like a zombie that has been revived by something.

Seems like someone has revealed his place and debt 😂
You should thank Trump 😁👌 (jk🤭)

This thread was going so well for such a long time.  I guess the shitposters are bound to infiltrate this subject too, why should it be any different?

Here's a tip for all you foreigners attempting to discuss American politics as if you know what the fuck you're talking about: Most of you don't.  American media is full of misinformation, slanted by political bias, and purposely meant to convey their bias as "truth," regardless of facts.  What makes you think the news you get in your country isn't slanted even more by your own media's biases?  Odds are it is.  Don't trust one source, hell don't trust ten sources, research facts for yourself if you want to know what's what.

Under Obama, the national dept was doubled.  Did I say doubled?  Because I meant DOUBLED!  He accumulated more debt than the last three presidents combined.  Trump has done an impressive job to reduce our debt, including revising trade policies with nearly every country with whom we have treaties.  Even with the unimaginable debt he'll rack up as a result of Covid, he'll crush the debt that Obummer saddled us with.

That is all true but I think that people have very short memory and they forget all that Trump actually did and stil does. Also, I think that Trump is the choice of average American because that is the average state of mind.
Also, I'm not sure that Biden is good alternative but people should obviously choose which one is less bad for them.

You know exactly why republicans increase the debt and how. Normally the country gets a lot of taxes under democratic president, they get the taxes like they suppose to and nothing weird happens about it, but when republican gets to be a president, what is the first thing they do? Cut down on taxes for huge corporations, trump did that with 2 trillion dollars cut for the companies who worked hard to simply.. lose it all during this pandemic, so they didn't even helped the nation at all neither, waste of 2 trillion dollars. When the country is in debt of 20 trillion, you get that 2 trillion, not allow them to pocket it.

Biden may have some issues, Biden could even turn out to be a rapist, but what people are forgetting is that Trump is a rapist, cheater, dictatorship loving, country selling, racism fevering, fear monger who is direly wanting to rule America forever until he does and possibly his children after him, so Biden would be a very very bad president, Trump would be the worst in history, and he has been so far as well.

 Biden is both doing well but also not doing well at the same time and thats a very dangerous place to be. He talked about how any african american not voting for him is no true black person , now that sentence is racist all the way up, but if we look at the underlying meaning that Trump is loved by the racist people who hate blacks and all the black killings by cops were probably done by republican cops, we could see that indeed if you do not vote for Biden you are helping a racist lover Trump to get elected, yet he didn't it say it like that, he said you are not truely black if you don't vote for him, a right thing said wrongly can hurt you. He also didn't came out and talked about the pandemic situation for a veeery long time and only came out wearing mask making masks once again political, a right thing, but done badly once again.

 Biden is clearly much better candidate because he is more in the middle, I would have prefered Bernie over anyone, but Biden is miles better than Trump, the only bad side is, Trump knows how to talk to his hatred filled racist voters whereas Biden can't really get votes from left anymore, he should have rallied all the Bernie voters under him when he had the chance but he is missing that chance by a big margin.

Actually this is very surprising. Republican presidents are expected to cut down on welfare spending, and reduce the federal debt. However, for the last 3 decades or so the opposite has happened. The federal debt increased under George W Bush, and it increased further under Donald Trump. Even in terms of debt-to-GDP ratio, it has increased significantly under the Trump presidency.

I also couldn't believe that Trump will win Presidential elections.
I have some friends in America and asked them what happened.
They told me that people was tired from traditional politicians,  didn't trust them anymore and wanted real change in Washington.
Somehow,  they felt that Trump is real change,  somebody who will shake Washington.
Now,  he still have loyal followers and popularity but I'm not sure it will be enough for him to win again.
Average Joe can see now who is real Trump,  all stupid things he did or said and if Biden can show that he is qualified for this big responsibility,  someone who don't divide people and someone who really care for others,  not just for economy or money,  than I believe Biden will be next president.