It's time to call it a day anyway.
Yes, good night all! The bet is not available until I come back online and recalculate the odds. If Goat does not want it, I can perhaps do a smaller amount.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31180. (Read 26724259 times)
December 13, 2013, 06:44:30 PM
Yes, good night all! The bet is not available until I come back online and recalculate the odds. If Goat does not want it, I can perhaps do a smaller amount.
December 13, 2013, 06:39:44 PM
Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?
No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level.
We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%.
I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post...
But this is btc:-D
Btc dont care
You should be the right person to bet for BTC against me...
How about:
- Will Bitstamp surpass its ATH of $1163/BTC in 2 months?
- If this price is breached, Goat wins.
- If not (until February 13th 24:00 UTC), rpietila wins.
Bet amount is $50,000, (odds 1:1) paid in bitcoins at the rate of the settlement date.
Why am I not surprised not one 'bull' has taken up this more than fair bet... Bulls? More like 'CCMF' shouting cheerleaders.
I would take it if $50,000 was the same % of my net worth as it is for rpietila. Someone might accept it, it's a pretty good bet.
tempting... problem is that i'd need to win to afford to lose
December 13, 2013, 06:39:35 PM
I really believe that Risto is seriously trolling in here. It's virtually IMPOSSIBLE to predict ANYTHING for sure into such a system like BTC. A serious prediction of ANY chaotic system (not one like we're observing here, which may as well be the mother of all chaotic systems) would have been in the timeframe of minutes or hours at max, not days; nor weeks.
ANY data provided and calculated may as well be proved as right, also as wrong. If he managed to make it based onto his calculations it's good for him and may as well define a brand new IQ entity by himself. I seriously salute him! But I don't think he did it only because of them. Luck is a special and important factor in this.
Just saying (if you want theoretical proof I can also support what I've just typed).
ANY data provided and calculated may as well be proved as right, also as wrong. If he managed to make it based onto his calculations it's good for him and may as well define a brand new IQ entity by himself. I seriously salute him! But I don't think he did it only because of them. Luck is a special and important factor in this.
Just saying (if you want theoretical proof I can also support what I've just typed).
R is actually right from the historical data, there were 4 dumps with the volume, they followed similar patterns, there was a 5th this past weekend. We both called the bottom based on volume in evidence, but he did a lot better on it due to the stakes.
His gamble is that it isn't over yet. That may be true or not and is yet to be seen.
I'm going to take a few unusual hours off working and watch Hobbits do stuff, so behave yourselves! You are in charge while I'm gone, ok?
December 13, 2013, 06:39:13 PM
I really believe that Risto is seriously trolling in here. It's virtually IMPOSSIBLE to predict ANYTHING for sure into such a system like BTC. A serious prediction of ANY chaotic system (not one like we're observing here, which may as well be the mother of all chaotic systems) would have been in the timeframe of minutes or hours at max, not days; nor weeks.
ANY data provided and calculated may as well be proved as right, also as wrong. If he managed to make it based onto his calculations it's good for him and may as well define a brand new IQ entity by himself. I seriously salute him! But I don't think he did it only because of them. Luck is a special and important factor in this.
Just saying (if you want theoretical proof I can also support what I've just typed).
ANY data provided and calculated may as well be proved as right, also as wrong. If he managed to make it based onto his calculations it's good for him and may as well define a brand new IQ entity by himself. I seriously salute him! But I don't think he did it only because of them. Luck is a special and important factor in this.
Just saying (if you want theoretical proof I can also support what I've just typed).
I have a special kind of mind, it is quite simple, but it can calculate monetary probabilities very well. Somebody else may choke on his numbers, or shortcircuit and SHOUT that it is impossible to predict anything with certainty. Sure it is. Still some people win in poker and others don't.
I have a simple model that shows (among others) that after bubble pop, as long as the price is 0.2 or more log-units over the trendline, it is not possible to sell at a profit in 1-6 months timeframe. It is quite sobering: by selling at $628 today, the buyback at a profit is guaranteed for many months to come.
Chances that the model ends up faulty (that despite their mutual differences, 2 previous bubbles have something intrinsic in common that the 3rd does not have) are 20-30%, which means that the odds are way in favor. With this kind of odds it is Kelly optimal to risk about 40% of your net worth.
I completely agree with you. I'm not into your math model to verify it (but I may find it interesting to try if you let me). It's time to call it a day anyway.
Goodnight and CHOO CHOO!
December 13, 2013, 06:38:55 PM
24:00 UTC is a confusing time. Say 23:59 UTC.
Also couldn't Goat just buy up to $1163/BTC and then just sell again. Would only lose transaction fees to win $50K. But I suppose you could set up sell orders to stop him from winning the bet.
LOL, you are smart! I checked that I needed to back off from the $1000 bet because of insufficient ASK volume. But $1163 I am sure Goat and his bull friends cannot conquer (they don't have much fiat, only btc). I also have friends with many BTC and they know that it is going down. What is more fun than to sell some more at an inflated price
If we actually battle at 1100+ territory then the $50k is peanuts 
December 13, 2013, 06:38:04 PM
Just like, in between 21:25-22:15 UTC, the price went up by 1% with high volume. I told before, in this very thread. Why did you not piggyback that one?
Seriously now: What percentage of certainty your model describes? Will it be 100% sure that what you're going to predict will actually be like that?
Seriously now: Why are you asking for "certainty percentages" ??
There is no such thing. Every person has his own view, theory and understanding of the market and the trends guiding it. They are at best, guesstimates, or if you feel offended, estimates based on past performance, pattern recognition and future projections.
No one has any percentage whatsoever of certainty.
I have 100% certainty it will go up, and 100% certainty it will go down
That's what I like to call the Newtonian TA.
December 13, 2013, 06:37:13 PM
I wish I HAD $50,000 to bet.
Because, you know, then I wouldn't bet.
Because, you know, then I wouldn't bet.
December 13, 2013, 06:35:39 PM
Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?
No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level.
We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%.
I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post...
But this is btc:-D
Btc dont care
You should be the right person to bet for BTC against me...
How about:
- Will Bitstamp surpass its ATH of $1163/BTC in 2 months?
- If this price is breached, Goat wins.
- If not (until February 13th 24:00 UTC), rpietila wins.
Bet amount is $50,000, (odds 1:1) paid in bitcoins at the rate of the settlement date.
Why am I not surprised not one 'bull' has taken up this more than fair bet... Bulls? More like 'CCMF' shouting cheerleaders.
yeah cause everyone walks around with 50k set aside to bet on this forum...
December 13, 2013, 06:34:46 PM
Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?
No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level.
We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%.
I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post...
But this is btc:-D
Btc dont care
You should be the right person to bet for BTC against me...
How about:
- Will Bitstamp surpass its ATH of $1163/BTC in 2 months?
- If this price is breached, Goat wins.
- If not (until February 13th 24:00 UTC), rpietila wins.
Bet amount is $50,000, (odds 1:1) paid in bitcoins at the rate of the settlement date.
Why am I not surprised not one 'bull' has taken up this more than fair bet... Bulls? More like 'CCMF' shouting cheerleaders.
I would take it if $50,000 was the same % of my net worth as it is for rpietila. Someone might accept it, it's a pretty good bet.
December 13, 2013, 06:34:28 PM
Just like, in between 21:25-22:15 UTC, the price went up by 1% with high volume. I told before, in this very thread. Why did you not piggyback that one?
Seriously now: What percentage of certainty your model describes? Will it be 100% sure that what you're going to predict will actually be like that?
Seriously now: Why are you asking for "certainty percentages" ??
There is no such thing. Every person has his own view, theory and understanding of the market and the trends guiding it. They are at best, guesstimates, or if you feel offended, estimates based on past performance, pattern recognition and future projections.
No one has any percentage whatsoever of certainty.
I have 100% certainty it will go up, and 100% certainty it will go down
December 13, 2013, 06:33:45 PM
I really believe that Risto is seriously trolling in here. It's virtually IMPOSSIBLE to predict ANYTHING for sure into such a system like BTC. A serious prediction of ANY chaotic system (not one like we're observing here, which may as well be the mother of all chaotic systems) would have been in the timeframe of minutes or hours at max, not days; nor weeks.
ANY data provided and calculated may as well be proved as right, also as wrong. If he managed to make it based onto his calculations it's good for him and may as well define a brand new IQ entity by himself. I seriously salute him! But I don't think he did it only because of them. Luck is a special and important factor in this.
Just saying (if you want theoretical proof I can also support what I've just typed).
ANY data provided and calculated may as well be proved as right, also as wrong. If he managed to make it based onto his calculations it's good for him and may as well define a brand new IQ entity by himself. I seriously salute him! But I don't think he did it only because of them. Luck is a special and important factor in this.
Just saying (if you want theoretical proof I can also support what I've just typed).
I have a special kind of mind, it is quite simple, but it can calculate monetary probabilities very well. Somebody else may choke on his numbers, or shortcircuit and SHOUT that it is impossible to predict anything with certainty. Sure it is. Still some people win in poker and others don't.
I have a simple model that shows (among others) that after bubble pop, as long as the price is 0.2 or more log-units over the trendline, it is not possible to sell at a profit in 1-6 months timeframe. It is quite sobering: by selling at $628 today, the buyback at a profit is guaranteed for many months to come.
Chances that the model ends up faulty (that despite their mutual differences, 2 previous bubbles have something intrinsic in common that the 3rd does not have) are 20-30%, which means that the odds are way in favor. With this kind of odds it is Kelly optimal to risk about 40% of your net worth.
December 13, 2013, 06:32:23 PM
Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?
No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level.
We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%.
I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post...
But this is btc:-D
Btc dont care
You should be the right person to bet for BTC against me...
How about:
- Will Bitstamp surpass its ATH of $1163/BTC in 2 months?
- If this price is breached, Goat wins.
- If not (until February 13th 24:00 UTC), rpietila wins.
Bet amount is $50,000, (odds 1:1) paid in bitcoins at the rate of the settlement date.
Why am I not surprised not one 'bull' has taken up this more than fair bet... Bulls? More like 'CCMF' shouting cheerleaders.
December 13, 2013, 06:31:08 PM
Just like, in between 21:25-22:15 UTC, the price went up by 1% with high volume. I told before, in this very thread. Why did you not piggyback that one?
Seriously now: What percentage of certainty your model describes? Will it be 100% sure that what you're going to predict will actually be like that?
Seriously now: Why are you asking for "certainty percentages" ??
There is no such thing. Every person has his own view, theory and understanding of the market and the trends guiding it. They are at best, guesstimates, or if you feel offended, estimates based on past performance, pattern recognition and future projections.
No one has any percentage whatsoever of certainty.
That's what I'm talking about; what dont' you understand?
December 13, 2013, 06:29:53 PM
Just like, in between 21:25-22:15 UTC, the price went up by 1% with high volume. I told before, in this very thread. Why did you not piggyback that one?
Seriously now: What percentage of certainty your model describes? Will it be 100% sure that what you're going to predict will actually be like that?
Seriously now: Why are you asking for "certainty percentages" ??
There is no such thing. Every person has his own view, theory and understanding of the market and the trends guiding it. They are at best, guesstimates, or if you feel offended, estimates based on past performance, pattern recognition and future projections.
No one has any percentage whatsoever of certainty.
December 13, 2013, 06:29:33 PM
choo choo
been a lot of choo choo talk.. I guess they thought we'd be in double digis by now..if not singles
December 13, 2013, 06:28:52 PM
Of course with China anything is possible, we can all be wrong, and nobody knows what's going to happen. They have messed up all our TA and seem to have their own TA like 'the book of the path of the dragon'.
The Chinese dragon is ripping the faces off a few bears at the moment.
It has raised 3%!
It's going to outer space!
This guy gets it!
CH00 CH00!!!!1
December 13, 2013, 06:28:30 PM
The Chinese dragon is ripping the faces off a few bears at the moment.
It has raised 3%!
It's going to outer space!
December 13, 2013, 06:27:12 PM
choo choo
December 13, 2013, 06:26:19 PM
December 13, 2013, 06:25:07 PM
Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?
No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level.
We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%.
I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post...
But this is btc:-D
Btc dont care
You should be the right person to bet for BTC against me...
How about:
- Will Bitstamp surpass its ATH of $1163/BTC in 2 months?
- If this price is breached, Goat wins.
- If not (until February 13th 24:00 UTC), rpietila wins.
Bet amount is $50,000, (odds 1:1) paid in bitcoins at the rate of the settlement date.
24:00 UTC is a confusing time. Say 23:59 UTC.
Also couldn't Goat just buy up to $1163/BTC and then just sell again. Would only lose transaction fees to win $50K. But I suppose you could set up sell orders to stop him from winning the bet.
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