I'll just leave this here:
i never understood why people believe that bitcoin price is a bubble in the first place and not normal price fluctuations in a free and unregulated market. Especially after 2011 so called "bubble" when no one know what will happen next and now we know that bitcoin wont simply die next day.
I and I think many others just bought bitcoins, keep them in safe place, and remain optimistic because we believe its good concept and worth investing. Where is bubble in that?
I think you need to look for the definition of a bubble. Bitcoin bubbles are
textbook examples of economic bubbles.
This does not mean anything bad in and of itself. Every free market that is exposed to occasional hype, growth spurts, volatility and promising futures will undoubtedly go through one or several bubbles before it reaches any kind of price stability.
Except that they've "popped" "down" to 5-10 times the pre-bubble price... this a very important difference.
That's all post-bubble TA. The bubble has, by then, burst.
There's this guy Didier Sornette, who's working on bubble prediction algorithms with his team, the Financial Crisis Observatory in the ETH in Zurich. They are actively predicting bubbles as we speak, putting the predictions in encrypted files to be released 6 months later when/if the asset has popped. One of these predictions was the April bubble...
Obviously, the algo is not disclosed, but he claims one if it's main indicators when observing an asset is the passage from linear (basically fundamental value driven) to exponential growth (spec/hype driven).
Of course, if I would merely base my trading on this alone, I would have to short every time big news come out, but hey.. it's something to consider..
