Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32499. (Read 26471759 times)
August 01, 2013, 06:01:28 PM
August 01, 2013, 05:41:45 PM
your sure its not the bear trap of in the institutional investor stage?
nice joke
No joke... quit your day trading perspective and zoom yourself out to an investor's timeframe. Despite a flash of media hype barely anybody knows about bitcoin.
If you consider the Winkevoss as the Institutional Investor? Then no joke.
I'm at OHM2013, a hacker conference in the Netherlands. I gave a presentation on non-government money. About 75% of attendees (at this talk, not just the whole conference) had "heard of" bitcoin. Less than 10% at the presentation had ever owned any, and this is about as deep as you can get in the target market without being at a bitcoin meetup.
These are the early days.
August 01, 2013, 05:25:47 PM
More indications against the 'return to the mean' is that not a single chart will draw a line corresponding with the pre-bubble growth to the current $100, they all point to somewhere around $50.
This one (top) doesn't support the 'return to mean' theory:
Even if the 'correction/deflation' goes a fair bit below the line, I still don't see it going as far as $50, unless adoption is reaching saturation, which I doubt
August 01, 2013, 05:02:05 PM
It's not a chart - it's a graphic. I prefer the graphics with Nom Nom or Wheee written on them personally
August 01, 2013, 05:01:00 PM
August 01, 2013, 04:47:29 PM
August 01, 2013, 04:35:04 PM
new memes are already coming: "bitcoin and PMs are complementary" for example.
hahaha
or this?
Quote
first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they shove you into the fountain, and then mom won't let you in the car because you're dripping wet so you have to strip down to your tighty whities in public again
August 01, 2013, 04:29:44 PM
I'll just leave this here:
i never understood why people believe that bitcoin price is a bubble in the first place and not normal price fluctuations in a free and unregulated market. Especially after 2011 so called "bubble" when no one know what will happen next and now we know that bitcoin wont simply die next day.
I and I think many others just bought bitcoins, keep them in safe place, and remain optimistic because we believe its good concept and worth investing. Where is bubble in that?
As I said before I think that this not a bubble. It is a new thing, perhaps driven by the speed worldwide subcultures can communicate due to internet technologies. With most prior bubbles (that I know about), total valuations during the bubble reached many times the size of the conceivable future market. Yet the bitcoin market cap topped out orders of magnitude below that (not going to repeat all the great infographics ppl have posted here). In a system with exponentially increasing real value, for the first time knowledge can flash through subgroups FASTER then the exponential value rise. At the same time, knowledge cannot easily pass across gender/age/vocation/language/cultural boundaries because to do so requires a re-working of the presentation, a different emphasis, or different layered applications. We saw BTC flash through certain sectors of college students, libertarians, IT professionals, finance, etc. We still see it predominantly used by young people...
The phenomenon of rapid, super-exponential spread through these subcultures is what has caused the BTC micro-bubbles of 2011 and 2013 -- periods when expectation simply temporarily exceeded the reality. Essentially the bitcoin market cap DID vastly exceed the conceivable future market OF THOSE SUBCULTURES only. But bitcoin is universally applicable... new memes are already coming: "bitcoin and PMs are complementary" for example.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
August 01, 2013, 04:22:05 PM
I'll just leave this here:
We might have passed the "return to normal" phase somewhere in late April, when it jumped back to about 150. The "despair" is probably early July, and, according to Adam's chart, we are back at the mean.
I think institutional investors are a long way off. There is barely one hedge fund investing in bitcoin. ETF's are in the planning phase. Likely some institutional investors heard about bitcoin in this recent bubble, but how long did it take you to invest after you heard about it for the first time? It took me 1 year of ignoring it after that, and another year of rejecting it before I folded, and I consider myself a critical knowledgeable independent investor that is free to invest in anything and doesn't need to report to anyone.
What we saw a month ago when it dropped to $65 was not despair. Despair was in 2011.
Right before the recent drop to $65 most were still bulls here. And when that drop crossed $80 some prominent people here became bear and spammed the forum. I saw for the first time the forum switching to mostly bears and indeed there was fear and finally an agreement that we indeed are in a bear market (took them a 3 month long drop from $266 to below $80 before finally recognizing! *shrugs head*). And now it's again 50/50 bulls/bears.
We might not get capitulation and despair this time around, agreed, but if anything we are in the back to normal phase with some fear right before.
More indications against the 'return to the mean' is that not a single chart will draw a line corresponding with the pre-bubble growth to the current $100, they all point to somewhere around $50.
August 01, 2013, 04:19:47 PM
i never understood why people believe that bitcoin price is a bubble in the first place and not normal price fluctuations in a free and unregulated market. Especially after 2011 so called "bubble" when no one know what will happen next and now we know that bitcoin wont simply die next day.
I and I think many others just bought bitcoins, keep them in safe place, and remain optimistic because we believe its good concept and worth investing. Where is bubble in that?
I and I think many others just bought bitcoins, keep them in safe place, and remain optimistic because we believe its good concept and worth investing. Where is bubble in that?
We had a Gold price bubble also. But it doesn't mean that gold is bad or that the gold price won't rise in the future.
August 01, 2013, 04:13:03 PM
August 01, 2013, 04:11:28 PM
I'll just leave this here:
i never understood why people believe that bitcoin price is a bubble in the first place and not normal price fluctuations in a free and unregulated market. Especially after 2011 so called "bubble" when no one know what will happen next and now we know that bitcoin wont simply die next day.
I and I think many others just bought bitcoins, keep them in safe place, and remain optimistic because we believe its good concept and worth investing. Where is bubble in that?
August 01, 2013, 04:08:55 PM
your sure its not the bear trap of in the institutional investor stage?
nice joke
No joke... quit your day trading perspective and zoom yourself out to an investor's timeframe. Despite a flash of media hype barely anybody knows about bitcoin.
August 01, 2013, 04:08:29 PM
I'll just leave this here:
Keep up the good work fr33d0miz3r I am more inclined to be with Adam on this one but we do need the naysaying doom-and-gloomers to be doing their thang here and everywhere to keep people selling and to keep the institutional investors at bay. The longer they stay out of the game the more widely distributed bitcoin will be by the time some big moves happen. Personally I know of a lot of musicians and creative people who I'd like to see having a stake before it takes off again and on the whole people need time to absorb what this is about and its potential impact before putting more than a few a token amount in. I'd also like to see more of it in the hands of innovators and people with big potentially world-changing ideas. I'd like the institutional investors when eventually they arrive to be empowering these people by increasing their buying power. Also I'd like to see the first waves of Africans (maybe starting with Kenyans and the m-pesa thing) so that again, the institutional investors, many of whom for years have in cahoots with despotic leaders been ripping the piss out of the people get to inadvertently pay them back.So please those of you insisting it's heading down and posting ridiculously irrelevant cartoon charts, keep up the good work
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
August 01, 2013, 04:04:34 PM
You wouldn't believe how I hope for that. The constant bombardment by bear talk made me reluctant to restock after localbitcoins Sells, so I'm sitting on this smelly pile of euro cash. A drop to 50 or even 30 would be an elegant opportunity to get rid of that.
However, I don't believe in it. This is not 2011.
I've come to the same opinion and have very little hope for $30 to be reached as I realized recently that even in 2011 the bottom ($2) was twice as high as the previous top before the bubble ($1). Twice as high as the top before the bubble ($30) would be $60 now but since $60 has been touched twice already I think chances are 50/50 it won't happen again. I realize this is contradictory to the bubble collapse theory which points to $40 only to be reached in a few months, as SlipperySlope explains so well. But he too is open to a reflating of the bubble before it deflates fully.
The gox exodus doesn't explain the strong buying happening on bitstamp. Someone wants coins really bad there and I highly doubt this to be arbitrageurs as the risk seems too high for their fiat stuck on gox. Is it just a pump and dumper or is it the rich taking a small position? I'm betting on the latter as all gates are open for them now. Bitcoin has proven to survive the 2011 depression, and the recent bubble gave bitcoin mainstream attention and above all legal approval from different government institutions. The price halving from the top is likely enough for them to take a small position already 'just in case it doesn't drop further'.
Impaler, I think it was, also gave some good counterarguments one must look at volume and not time to see whether the deflating of the bubble is over. Based on volume it is. Also he confirmed how the rich are able to absorb more price volatitlity. Indeed, who cares if it's only a small percentage of your capital that you buy at $100 or $50 if the potential of it is to tenfold in 2-3 years? Most important is to take the small exposure, and not be left out.
I think it's time to become bullish again, though I certainly might be proven wrong.
Great post rationalspeculator!
Still a 50% chance that it will go down, and a 50% chance that it will go up, is NOT a good speculation. Be careful. Better to speculate also on gold and silver right now since there at least chances are higher it will go up rather than down, that's a good speculation. Always keep a position in bitcoin though since long term it's still the best speculation ever. Current exposure of my portfolio to bitcoin 20% and 5% cash ready on exchange to buy on corrections. Gold & silver also 25%.
August 01, 2013, 04:00:54 PM
August 01, 2013, 03:57:32 PM
your sure its not the bear trap of in the institutional investor stage?
Almost.
I've seen two teenagers watching the Bitcoin price on their phones while waiting for the tram the day the bubble popped. I think that is sufficiently "Public" don't you say?
August 01, 2013, 03:57:12 PM
and, according to Adam's chart, we are back at the mean.
and, as Adam said, we are going to 180 in 5 business days
August 01, 2013, 03:56:25 PM
August 01, 2013, 03:54:50 PM
I'll just leave this here:
We might have passed the "return to normal" phase somewhere in late April, when it jumped back to about 150. The "despair" is probably early July, and, according to Adam's chart, we are back at the mean.
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