Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32964.

MAbtc

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Quote from: solex on July 10, 2013, 10:15:13 PM

Quote from: Wagner2014 on July 10, 2013, 10:02:56 PM

^ a short term uptick was necessary and expected...before resuming the overall medium term downward trend...the pattern remains: lower highs and lower lows...that pattern has not been broken yet....

How can you say that after checking out the 12 hour chart, such as below:

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd

We have just seen the biggest move up for 2 months. A new pattern is emerging. At some point reversals have to happen, unless it is in terminal decline. I remember watching the Enron share price in late '01 (didn't have any, fortunately) and it just kept going down and down. When it hit $8 the Bloomberg guys were having a fit saying that it must turn around soon. It didn't, the company collapsed and it went to zero. Unless Bitcoin is in terminal decline we will not see a permanent downtrend. In fact the last four years has shown it is the ultimate financial instrument on the planet. I think it will remain so, based on remarkable fundamentals, and so do many other people.

Enron. NOT Bitcoin chart:

I don't see how we drop from 115 to 65 without bouncing. Who said anything about permanent? Even the bears don't think bitcoin is "dying." But I'll say -- I'm certainly not at the point where I'm thinking the downtrend might be over. My medium term outlook will change if we break 115 on volume, but I'm pretty skeptical of triple digits here. Still hoping for a retrace to 96 territory, though.

essem

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Quote from: solex on July 10, 2013, 10:15:13 PM

Quote from: Wagner2014 on July 10, 2013, 10:02:56 PM

^ a short term uptick was necessary and expected...before resuming the overall medium term downward trend...the pattern remains: lower highs and lower lows...that pattern has not been broken yet....

How can you say that after checking out the 12 hour chart, such as below:

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd

We have just seen the biggest move up for 2 months. A new pattern is emerging. At some point reversals have to happen, unless it is in terminal decline. I remember watching the Enron share price in late '01 (didn't have any, fortunately) and it just kept going down and down. When it hit $8 the Bloomberg guys were having a fit saying that it must turn around soon. It didn't, the company collapsed and it went to zero. Unless Bitcoin is in terminal decline we will not see a permanent downtrend. In fact the last four years has shown it is the ultimate financial instrument on the planet. I think it will remain so, based on remarkable fundamentals, and so do many other people.

Enron. NOT Bitcoin chart:

http://www.ecotao.com/holism/add/enron/Enron_whole.jpg

You're wrong

Wagner2014

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Quote from: solex on July 10, 2013, 10:15:13 PM

Quote from: Wagner2014 on July 10, 2013, 10:02:56 PM

^ a short term uptick was necessary and expected...before resuming the overall medium term downward trend...the pattern remains: lower highs and lower lows...that pattern has not been broken yet....

How can you say that after checking out the 12 hour chart, such as below:

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd

How can I say that? Because I'm not stating an opinion on the 12 hour chart. Try checking out the daily chart. Beginning on April 23, 2013 we have been on a downward trend - of lower highs and lower lows. That trend has not yet been broken. That's the point I was trying to express. If the trend continues we should hit a new low in the next 4 or 5 weeks, right in time for the doldrums of August.

ChartBuddy

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Abandon

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I think we might see 95 or so:

The Fibo target is there, and there's Hidden Divergences with the Fisher.

derpinheimer

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Quote from: solex on July 10, 2013, 10:15:13 PM

Quote from: Wagner2014 on July 10, 2013, 10:02:56 PM

^ a short term uptick was necessary and expected...before resuming the overall medium term downward trend...the pattern remains: lower highs and lower lows...that pattern has not been broken yet....

How can you say that after checking out the 12 hour chart, such as below:

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd

We have just seen the biggest move up for 2 months. A new pattern is emerging. At some point reversals have to happen, unless it is in terminal decline. I remember watching the Enron share price in late '01 (didn't have any, fortunately) and it just kept going down and down. When it hit $8 the Bloomberg guys were having a fit saying that it must turn around soon. It didn't, the company collapsed and it went to zero. Unless Bitcoin is in terminal decline we will not see a permanent downtrend. In fact the last four years has shown it is the ultimate financial instrument on the planet. I think it will remain so, based on remarkable fundamentals, and so do many other people.

Enron. NOT Bitcoin

The biggest up move in 2 months... immediately following a doubly large, also 2 month record, down move?

It's clear you're all in Tongue

Anyway, best of luck. But I think you might be a bit delusional.

^Not that big of a move, relatively.

Ray Anastasio

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Quote from: Kazu on July 10, 2013, 10:12:27 PM

Quote from: solex on July 10, 2013, 09:52:23 PM

Quote from: Kazu on July 10, 2013, 09:39:12 PM

Price is falling. Thinking of moving my bids up from $60 to $80.

Probably wise unless you are prepared to wait out the next peak/trough which may still not get near $60. IMHO even $65 is unlikely again.
One strategy is to ladder orders, say $73 to $82 with 1/10th size at each $1 increment. If the lowest ones don't get hit then repeat the process at the next retrace down.

Well I already own some, so I'm not going to be like 'waaaaah, I missed an entire bubble.' So I'm not too rushed. However I've got a crapload of fiat sitting on Gox from selling during the second-crash (after the bounce after hitting $57) and withdrawing it costs an assload due to humongous wire fees, so eventually I'm going to need to buy Bitcoins with it. The real question is when. Which at the moment really isnt a question one can answer without significant BS, so I think i'm going to sit on my hands until I see if any new bitcoin businesses are actually forming after the bubble, or if we are just sitting on the floating businesses that were forming during the bubble but were just a bit late.

I'm new at this, but I started doing better taking small chunks as often as I can rather than try to time big chunks.

solex

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100 satoshis -> ISO code

Quote from: Wagner2014 on July 10, 2013, 10:02:56 PM

^ a short term uptick was necessary and expected...before resuming the overall medium term downward trend...the pattern remains: lower highs and lower lows...that pattern has not been broken yet....

How can you say that after checking out the 12 hour chart, such as below:

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd

We have just seen the biggest move up for 2 months. A new pattern is emerging. At some point reversals have to happen, unless it is in terminal decline. I remember watching the Enron share price in late '01 (didn't have any, fortunately) and it just kept going down and down. When it hit $8 the Bloomberg guys were having a fit saying that it must turn around soon. It didn't, the company collapsed and it went to zero. Unless Bitcoin is in terminal decline we will not see a permanent downtrend. In fact the last four years has shown it is the ultimate financial instrument on the planet. I think it will remain so, based on remarkable fundamentals, and so do many other people.

Enron. NOT Bitcoin chart:

Kazu

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Quote from: solex on July 10, 2013, 09:52:23 PM

Quote from: Kazu on July 10, 2013, 09:39:12 PM

Price is falling. Thinking of moving my bids up from $60 to $80.

Probably wise unless you are prepared to wait out the next peak/trough which may still not get near $60. IMHO even $65 is unlikely again.
One strategy is to ladder orders, say $73 to $82 with 1/10th size at each $1 increment. If the lowest ones don't get hit then repeat the process at the next retrace down.

Well I already own some, so I'm not going to be like 'waaaaah, I missed an entire bubble.' So I'm not too rushed. However I've got a crapload of fiat sitting on Gox from selling during the second-crash (after the bounce after hitting $57) and withdrawing it costs an assload due to humongous wire fees, so eventually I'm going to need to buy Bitcoins with it. The real question is when. Which at the moment really isnt a question one can answer without significant BS, so I think i'm going to sit on my hands until I see if any new bitcoin businesses are actually forming after the bubble, or if we are just sitting on the floating businesses that were forming during the bubble but were just a bit late.

Wagner2014

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^ a short term uptick was necessary and expected...before resuming the overall medium term downward trend...the pattern remains: lower highs and lower lows...that pattern has not been broken yet....

ChartBuddy

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hlynur

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Quote from: Adrian-x on July 10, 2013, 09:49:12 PM

Is he feeding baby bears or pigs?

bears...
but i just realized I mixed up my gif library and uploaded the wrong one. (gifs with eating bears are hard to find)
Tongue

need to get more sleep

Frozenlock

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Quote from: dexX7 on July 10, 2013, 09:56:40 PM

Quote from: Kazu on July 10, 2013, 09:39:12 PM

Price is falling. Thinking of moving my bids up from $60 to $80.

What happened and what most likely will continue couldn't be better described as by your comment. People begin to realize, that they might already missed it and higher their bids, which results in an uptrend.

Everyone wanted $50 coins.
The sooner they wake up, the better. Tongue

dexX7

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Quote from: Kazu on July 10, 2013, 09:39:12 PM

Price is falling. Thinking of moving my bids up from $60 to $80.

What happened and what most likely will continue couldn't be better described as by your comment. People begin to realize, that they might already missed it and higher their bids, which results in an uptrend.

solex

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100 satoshis -> ISO code

Quote from: Kazu on July 10, 2013, 09:39:12 PM

Price is falling. Thinking of moving my bids up from $60 to $80.

Probably wise unless you are prepared to wait out the next peak/trough which may still not get near $60. IMHO even $65 is unlikely again.
One strategy is to ladder orders, say $73 to $82 with 1/10th size at each $1 increment. If the lowest ones don't get hit then repeat the process at the next retrace down.

QuestionAuthority

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