Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33579. (Read 26459149 times)

I'm getting really tired from this today, had only 1.5 hour of sleep and concentration is on zero level... been late so many times today it's unbelievable.. shame, some serious money could be made and definitely is made by people who could focus themselves and make good timed moves.

I fear for those battling around 95, how long can it hold..

Can't tell if this is a sarcastic comment, considering the thread and subforum.



We're again at 100.0 as I type this. Humans and their love for certain numbers... skewing prices since they learned to count with fingers.

Heh, if by a bit you mean 3 or 4 years, yes a bit.

These are my thoughts exactly, I await the bottom just as I did in 2011 for all those months. I wonder how long it will take this time....

Thank you ineededausername, that's actually a good and sincere post. A rarity on these parts of the web.

Confession: I've been out of the game with all my money on gox for a while.  It has all been sold at $140 and upwards.

Unfortunately, I think my speculation on the nature of the bubble burst was off.  This was a major upswing, and I realize the differences now.

Minor upswings ($15.38 in Aug'12) are characterized by (1) not too much press and (2) slower userbase growth.  The nice thing about that is that when the faucet of new funds is turned off, a complete crash does not happen.  It crashed from 15.38 to 7.58 before bouncing, and gradually went up to 13 again.  Overall, pretty stable boom-bust-recovery.

Major upswings are rapid phases of adoption.  Unfortunately, when the fountain of new funds is gone, these seem to burst painfully.  

However, the upswing this time was accompanied by great development of fundamentals (userbase growth, service growth, awareness, interest from VCs + SV + the "mainstream").  In two years, I'm sure the bulls will be winning.  There hasn't actually been too much catastrophically bad news for the Bitcoin economy, in comparison to '11, and this is simply a case of deflated expectations (including my own).  The crash may be painful but this is certainly not going to be the death of Bitcoin, so I think it is very reasonable to wait for the bottom, buy in, and then watch it go to new ATHs

We might have to be a bit patient though.

Thats cool man. I am not saying you can't see it. I way saying that my experience of of having positions go against me and holding onto them anyway made it difficult for me to decide what to do next. Intended short term trades became investments ... did not end well for me.
If your happy with it, no worries. No offence meant.

It's not too high, it just feels too high after the drop to near 50.

What basically is happening is that there are too many bitcoins being held by early adopters. Not that there is anything wrong with that per-se but they need to be teased out and into the wider community for Bitcoin to become well established. It's not going to happen all-at-once (and that's a good thing) but is going to lead to volatility along the way.

What do you mean I can't see the market objectively from my position? I'm not a daytrader really, I'm in it for the long term.

Good analysis and it is much more worrying to forecast a price point.
On another note, Gox is lagging to an "acceptable level"

That was not intended to be an attack, just an honest opinion

I think you might be right because of your low post count. The pessimism at the moment seems to be coming from new users with only a couple hundred posts, and it was newbie money that really put Bitcoin stratospherically high. If so many of you are feeling as pessimistic as your posts seem to say you are- then yeah, we might be in for a much farther drop.

Yeah, but not the end of the capitulation

Not everyone is here to speculate. Leave the guy alone.

that is probably spot on. the only responsible thing to do now is - wait for it - SELL !

Or that could just be me

I hear you. But the problem with that approach is that you just got into an arranged marriage with your position. It's hard to see the market objectively from there

This feels like people are throwing in the towel. Capitulation, if you will. With none of the hype and buzz having any positive effect on the prices like it used to and a growing distaste with feeling like the price is at the whims of the puppet-masters, it seems like people are ready to step away for a while and let this burn itself out.

Or that could just be me.

The odd thing for me is that this does not feel like panic selling ... just relentless selling pressure. Yesterday, when we broke below 120 we went into freefall ... this feels very different ... worryingly so
That's why i don't think we've seen the bottom yet ... no panic and not even that much volatility

It may seem stupid to some, but everytime I sold at a loss before the price got back up within a week or so.