Topic: Why QQ? - page 12. (Read 10991 times)

You most certainly have not been discussing it, but I am glad you finally agreed to address my original post instead of bouncing all over the place. Inaba's hypothetical was wrong because they do not have hundreds of TH/s of mining equipment. There is barely 100TH/s of mining equipment in operation today. You have been defending an obvious falsehood on Josh's part and Dogie was right to call him out on it. Since one of the givens in the hypothetical was obviously false, it is irrelevant to this conversation.

I will address the rest of your wall of text in a second post. 

I tried. You resorted to misquoting me and then fell on your own sword trying to discredit the data supporting my position. You cling to your absurd notion that $5 million of refunds asked for in a public campaign would help BFL. In short, you have offered little actual evidence to demonstrate that any of your criticisms of the OP hold water.


Yes. I have noticed that instead of addressing what is said, you address who is saying it. Thereby you neatly sidestep having to deal with actual evidence and data.

The list at http://bfl.ptz.ro/ was very convenient for people who want to prove that BFL is shipping in volume (yourself included). But as soon as that list demonstrated something that you didn't like you attack it as invalid or tainted data. You can have one or the other, but not both.

Either demonstrate alternative proof that BFL is shipping in volume, or stop claiming it. Until then, either accept the list as a statistical sample from which general characteristics of BFL's order book can be inferred. Or stop claiming that BFL is shipping any sort of volume because that is the only evidence external to BFL that they are.

You miss quoted me leaving out the key information which says that you are insisting that people will cancel instantly. I bolded the entire quote and I repeat it here for you now:
your latest scenario contends that all the people cancel instantly
I have been contending that people would not in fact cancel instantly as you have now twice proposed. Your misrepresentation of my position reveals more about you than it does me.


Their profit margin would be improved by a flood of refunds, but right now they would have to sell more units for that to matter. Who in their right mind would add a pre-order now to wait another 90 days (according to Josh) to get their shipment? The only way it would work is if BFL admitted that the entire Bitcoin marketplace had lost faith in them and every single person asked for a refund. Your contention is that this would be a good thing, and that people would view that as a sign of strength and add their pre-orders to the pile. Nonsense.

My contention is that it would not matter, they would be out of business since their cash to buy parts would be gone, their cash to pay salaries and rent would be gone. While they might be able to mine with a few dozen units they showed in a photograph. They haven't shipped enough units to realize any profit, they have 11 months of burn rate to make back. If they haven't spent any of their pre-order money then where did the last 11 months of operating funds come from? Not that imaginary private-equity group, that has been debunked and even BFL doesn't bring it up anymore.

You keep bringing up the OP. You should read it again. He doesn't say every BFL order should cancel, he says everyone on these forums who complain about BFL should organize a "mass refund exodus". That means a lot of BFL customers, not all the BFL customers. Hit BFL in the pocket book for $2 million or so and see what happens. BFL will still have months of back-orders to fill and be faced with a $2 million tab and a lot of bad press.

The more you post, the more I realize that you are blind to BFL's actual statistics and are skating by on hope alone.

I think your the disconnect here is that you are so invested in this (ideologically, monetarily idk) that you aren't willing to take a look at what BFL has done wrong.  You talk about objectivity, but how can you ignore the lists thrown at you?  You just keep saying how ridiculous it is and the op's idea wouldn't work, so what would work?  Why do you think it's wrong to try to fight this?

I am using the data that the BFL fanbois have used to "prove" BFL is shipping in volume. If you want to discard that dataset, you must also discard the idea that BFL is shipping in volume since that is the only source external to BFL that demonstrates volume shipping. I was giving you the benefit of the doubt by using that data, if you don't want that benefit I will be happy to ask you to prove that BFL is shipping in volume.

You will be left with 10 "I got my Jalapeno" forum posts, and a picture of Jalapeno cases posted on BFL's website.

I have always been focused on how order cancellations could negatively affect BFL's business.


Again, your latest scenario contends that all the people cancel instantly and all the potential customers know exactly how many orders are left in BFL's queue. A mass of order cancellations is not going to inspire people to line up for BFL. Quite the opposite in fact:

1) They would not be at the front of the line given there might be 10,000 people still in front of them at any given time. BFL's order book is not public, we can only guess with statistical sampling.

2) With no ship date for the first version of the SC and Mini-rig products and a wave of refund requests hitting a company with murky financials. Only a complete optimist would order a product from BFL given the alternative products available from Avalon, ASICMiner, and even KNCMiner (since we are talking about pre-production units).

+bitcointip...

....aww shit this is not reddit.

 * Checks his mailbox today. Jaw drops when seeing "Attorney General of Missouri" envelope & letterhead. Whistles innocently *

Who needs FUD? One can simply quote stats from the same website that demonstrates BFL is shipping product to also demonstrate that after 2 months of shipping, they have shipped 0.63% of the hash rate that they promised. With no ETA from BFL on when the products that comprise 93% of BFL's promised product will come out of design and enter production, I would say that nobody needs to make up FUD.

Supporting links and evidence:
1) 93% of BFL's orders (when measured by hash-rate here http://bfl.ptz.ro/) are in singles and mini-rigs. By BFL's own admission none of those have shipped yet.
2) By BFL's own admission, the 1st of 11 months of Jalapeno pre-orders have shipped. That is roughly 9% of 7% which is 0.63% of the total hash rate that they owe their customers.
3) By BFL's own admission, they do not have working singles or mini-rigs that they can ship and there is no firm ETA on when 93% of their pre-orders can actually begin shipping.

You are quite bad at generating FUD.  Good FUD is slick and subtle.  And if it is good FUD you would only need to say it once and it will do its magic.  Your total desperation to attack BFL makes it almost comical.  Now that BFL is shipping in volume it makes you look quite desperate. 

Shit, you and your dirty facts!

The folks at BFL went through all this trouble to make an anthill into a mountain and here you are giving us facts that this mountain is only 12 inches across.

(Master BFL Shill)

1) 93% of their orders (when measured by hash-rate here http://bfl.ptz.ro/) are in singles and mini-rigs. By BFL's own admission none of those have shipped yet.
2) By BFL's own admission, the 1st of 11 months of Jalapeno pre-orders have shipped. That is roughly 9% of 7% which is 0.63% of the hash rate that they owe their customers.
3) By BFL's own admission, they do not have working singles or mini-rigs that they can ship and there is no firm ETA on when 93% of their pre-orders can actually begin shipping.

If the bulk of single and mini-rig sales cancel but the bulk of Jalapeno's stay, BFL could see $6-7 million dollars suddenly vanish from their coffers. They would still need weeks to ship all the Jalapeno's they owe.

After this and the 7990 thread... SMDH.

Dogie, stop... just stop, ok... you're doing no one a service with your ideas or information (lack ther of it) and every time you go to post something, It's pretty much troll-bait.

Jalapenos are shipping. Singles and Mini singles will "Soon"^TM Along with the 500 Gh/s Mini rigs. If they keep competitive on price they'll sell, if they can't the free market will fold the company.

I'm currently looking to order a Jupiter miner cause I don't see BFL moving onward a generation 2 product after this fiasco. I may be wrong, but I'm voting with my wallet.

People would have to know the refunds took place in order to realize that BFL's order queue had cleared. So BFL would have to come up with the "$5 million" and send it out and then declare that all pre-orders were cleared. If BFL tried to say they had no more obligations to pre-orders before actually paying them all off, people would declare on these forums (and others) that they had not received their refund yet. So no, BFL would not instantly gain back "$5 million" in market pre-orders (I doubt their website and back office could process that many in so short a time).

Any mass refund scenario would obviously play out over weeks as momentum and awareness of it built.
Your scenario depends on every single BFL order refunding all at the same time and then $5 million of new pre-orders appearing instantly to fund the refunds. I do not think that likely or even possible.

If someone was stealing from my neighbors, and the thief had convinced them to give him more, and that he was their best friend, by showing how charitable they were, even while yelling in their faces....  I would feel the need to try to wake them up, or take down the thief.  Saying that he has, "evil intent" is missing the point.  Violence is necessary.  Every time you eat you kill something.  Pretending to be above it all gets you nowhere.

It's foolish of you to go after dogie for this.  All of you.  Sure talk about his logic, discuss the holes in his plan.  When you attack him personally calling him a crybaby...  The idea is to do something for once.  How can you say this is just qq?  Going after someone?  If someone came at you and punched you in the face is that qq?  

Sure there are more important issues in the world, but this is happening in our backyard.  I'm not sure that cancelling orders would do much..  The chance that they could cover every preorder if they were cancelled is very small.  Funny how the talk goes to how expensive things are sometimes, and others how they have plenty of extra money.  Oh wait, maybe they could just spend some of their mined holdings and pay everyone off..

Not important.   there were two ways you could fix it.  Change a G to an M or get rid of ,000

BFL is finally mass shipping Jalapenos... I'd guess that now that it's proven they can make and ship these things in reasonable numbers, they are probably getting more orders for them than ever. So this whole "call to arms" plan is silly. More likely the OP actually does have a BFL order and just wants to move forward in the queue by people ahead of him cancelling.

Your supposition fails if a significant portion of those old customers could not get their refunds because BFL ran out of money. People will not pre-order from a company that has to declare bankruptcy. BFL will not get to mine or ship to new customers if the old ones don't get their refunds.

Your argument only works if you assume that BFL has tons of money. Your only evidence of this is a statement by Josh that they still have all of the pre-order money. The original purpose of collecting the pre-order money was to fund the development of the ASIC device (which took 7 months longer than planned). Magically, at the end of this extended development cycle no money was spent.

My crystal ball is shuddering terribly.

It says, shit is about to hit the fan.

Horrorscope of the day, if you are in, get out. Quickly!

Then stop making shitty QQ threads.

Dogie,

You get what you give in this world. Whatever you focus on becomes your truth. You
seem to see evil intent in others, but your answer is to respond with evil intent. Does
that really make sense in the scheme of things?

Your words hold no value and have absolutely no chance of achieving the intended effect.

We are not Scottish. You are not William Wallace. BFL are not the English. This is not a
field of battle. Please wipe the blue and white paint off your face and go watch a Survivor
re-run.

Sincerely,

The vast majority of BFL customers