You were asking me to speculate on a company's operating capital with nothing but bits and pieces of information and conspiracy theories. I'm all good on that garbage.
Why are you still talking about pages and pages ago? It was a hypothetical, and a ludicrous one admittedly, and you're just on and on about it when I've literally been done with it since well before this point:
You change the subject and I address your latest posts. You led this discussion, if you don't like where it goes, try staying on the subject you want to talk about.
You admitted you would not speculate or entertain anyone's speculation on the state of BFL's finances.
Speculation based on nothing is not the same as speculation based on available facts. You have ZERO founded reason to assume that BFL has in fact touched the pre-order money, when the public information available states that this isn't the case. The only reason you have chosen to assume that the pre-order money is gone, is your own personal bias and hatred for BFL. You have no evidence that it isn't there. Zero, zilch, zip, nada.
Further silly hypotheticals based on asinine speculation and zero fact
Not worth addressing.
As soon as word got out that BFL could not pay the refund requests, nobody would think they could afford to finance the purchase of parts to construct their units.
They've clearly got SOME level of parts stock on hand, as they're currently assembling and shipping Jalapenos. Furhtermore, I can think of about 18,000 reasons why I would think they could afford to purchase parts for my units. See below:
If you find a way to clear the queue for us, PLEASE let me know, as I'll place roughly $18,000 of Jalapeno orders, IMMEDIATELY upon learning that there's no longer any backlog. I guarantee you that I am not the only one. I'd be willing to bet my house on it, right there along with others.
So please, do us that favor, and clear out the pre-order queue!
Ready? Go!
I am EXTREMELY confident that I would not be the only one who would be jumping on board to get at the front of the line for currently-shipping Jalpenos. A couple dozen medium-sized buyers, and it doesn't matter if they are 'financially insolvent' the day all the refund requests go in. The very instant that queue goes to zero (hypothetically, of course, since we know that's not gonna happen), their bank account will fill right back up
Sure, Josh claims that they have hundreds of TH/s of parts to build product from, But since they do not yet have a mini-rig or single design that works, which parts exactly will they construct these devices from? Did they buy everything before they knew what they needed to make the devices work (this has already happened once by BFL's own admission)? That is hardly reassuring.
Once again, are you assuming that they are lying, or do you have evidence that they don't actually have the parts? You just said that you think that they've spent up enough money that they could be facing bankruptcy. OK... On what, praytell, did they spend all that money? A year's salary for a small staff? Okay, pretty sure they've already shipped enough Jalpenos to pay for that. Where did all the rest of this allegedly 'all spent up money' go? Come on, guy, which is it? Did they spend the money, or didn't they?
If you (by your own admission) cannot know the state of BFL's finances, how can you be so adamant that a wave of refunds would not bankrupt them?
Without knowledge of BFL's financial state, you cannot know how badly a wave of refunds would affect them.
You will not deviate from the idea that BFL can only benefit from a mass of refund requests. So either you have knowledge of BFL's financial state, or you have speculated on BFL's financial state, or you are simply unwilling to contemplate a scenario where BFL fails.
Which ever one it is, your position is internally inconsistent.
A unified organized wave of refunds alone, aside from taking place only in your your wildest fantasies, would not be enough. It would require a wave of refunds, as well as a somewhat sustained lack of any replacement orders coming into the queue, and that's unlikely.
There are plenty of scenarios where BFL could fail, but the more likely scenario is that another 1-2 big players jumps in at competitive pricing, and has goods IN STOCK (Say, for example, KNC Miner, and Bitfury). If those guys come online overnight, get proven leigit, and have several TH of mining equipment available for immediate shipment, for a price that's competitive with BFL, well, in that case, the outlook for BFL would not be very good for BFL at that point. That's because MARKET FORCES and rational self-interest would be driving things, not because of some wannabe community organizer with zero skin of his own in the game who reckons he can convince people to abandon their own self-interest, in the interest of making a point.
Once again, you twist the discussion and move the goal post. The argument was never that BFL is too big to fail, or whatever. The argument was that you're not gonna take down BFL by standing on a soap box trying to convince the local farmers to go raze the town grain silos to the ground.