If price stays the same or decreases, I think we see the hashrate go down for awhile. S9s are no longer profitable for anyone except an individual with access to very cheap power. Anyone with rent and/or employees is done at these levels.
A breakdown in price might see a hashrate that follows for a handful of months as more units go offline.
Of course a break upwards in price and hashrate will remain healthy.
Topic: Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year? - page 14. (Read 11858 times)
Thanks for your reply.
At what price S9 and L3+ should be worth the buy ?
At what price S9 and L3+ should be worth the buy ?
to all on what to buy please use pm to ask and not here as this thread is all about diff movement.
Back to this concept I am working on. when the network went flat in late 2014 price was pretty stable.
All these projections are based on stable price if price moons people will chase it with tons of gear.
I still see a lull coming up here time will tell.
Back to this concept I am working on. when the network went flat in late 2014 price was pretty stable.
All these projections are based on stable price if price moons people will chase it with tons of gear.
I still see a lull coming up here time will tell.
Thanks for your reply.
At what price S9 and L3+ should be worth the buy ?
At what price S9 and L3+ should be worth the buy ?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wts-antminer-s9-lot-of-80-canada-5045054
I have done business with fr4nkthetank
ask him what he wants for them. then talk to me via pm not on this thread.
I can escrow if needed.
Hi Philip,
I love your posts and calculations.
I have access to about 200 kW of power at 5.5 cents (US) in Quebec, Canada. What gear do you suggest to invest in ?
I love your posts and calculations.
I have access to about 200 kW of power at 5.5 cents (US) in Quebec, Canada. What gear do you suggest to invest in ?
Hi Philip,
I love your posts and calculations.
I have access to about 200 kW of power at 5.5 cents (US) in Quebec, Canada. What gear do you suggest to invest in ?
I love your posts and calculations.
I have access to about 200 kW of power at 5.5 cents (US) in Quebec, Canada. What gear do you suggest to invest in ?
cheap used s9's
cheap used l3+
m10's are a long wait
see how long the innosilicon t2ti takes
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.46690508
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.46687349
Quote
BTW, We just released new BTC miner T2Ti with four operation modes:
25T±5% 2000W+10%
23T±5% 1880W+10%
21T±5% 1550W+10%
20T±5% 1360W+10%
Promotional price till Oct 15th
25T±5% 2000W+10%
23T±5% 1880W+10%
21T±5% 1550W+10%
20T±5% 1360W+10%
Promotional price till Oct 15th
find price and time out remember they do not mine on all pools.
So based on LTC being flat from July to Oct you think BTC will go flat?
Somewhat to simple but partially correct.
BTC is more complex, but both coins are old and have big asic gear mining.
LTC has more then 450,000 L3+
229,492GHs/.5GHs = 458,984 L3+
two 4 cent power l3+ using 1400 watts and going 1gh make 57 a month
BTC has more then 3,000,000 S9 (I have to check this)
49,181,847,606 GHs/14,000 GHs = 3,512,989 s9 or equivalent
a 4 cent power s9 using 1400 watts and doing 14000gh makes 52 a month
So a guy with 4 cent power will get close to 52-57 usd profit with 1400 watts
The biggest difference in the two coins is that BTC is now making 70 watt th gear. vs 100 watt th gear 70% 70/100
and LTC gear is 1400 watts a gh for LT3+ with no one offering better then 1219 watts a gh for LTC gear. 87% 1219/1400
So that factor is a different one but still I see a long term sidewise move here for BTC that will mirror the LTC July to Oct move.
So based on LTC being flat from July to Oct you think BTC will go flat?
very early but we are moving sideways at that 0-2% I mentioned.
there is a lot of math I do on this.
My theory involves most of the network has s-9 type gear.
And that 70 watt a th or better gear will be restricted to select buyers.
Thus causing the 0-2 % movement for the next 6-9 months
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 7,454,968,648,263
Estimated Next Difficulty: 7,506,500,529,318 (+0.69%)
Adjust time: After 1302 Blocks, About 9.7 days
Hashrate(?): 49,110,005,370 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.7 minutes
3 blocks: 32.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated: 11:20 (2.7 minutes ago)
At mods I am posting the ltc diff charts as part of my modeling for btc diff please don't delete.
when price dropped we got flat the closer we come to 4-5 cent needed to earn money the flatter we get
there is a lot of math I do on this.
My theory involves most of the network has s-9 type gear.
And that 70 watt a th or better gear will be restricted to select buyers.
Thus causing the 0-2 % movement for the next 6-9 months
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 7,454,968,648,263
Estimated Next Difficulty: 7,506,500,529,318 (+0.69%)
Adjust time: After 1302 Blocks, About 9.7 days
Hashrate(?): 49,110,005,370 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.7 minutes
3 blocks: 32.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated: 11:20 (2.7 minutes ago)
At mods I am posting the ltc diff charts as part of my modeling for btc diff please don't delete.
when price dropped we got flat the closer we come to 4-5 cent needed to earn money the flatter we get
Gear is at good prices so big or small will gear up. If the s9 thrives a little longer so be it. I imagine, like others do, diff will grow. Sideways only if stability of market drops but 6k pricing has endured well and is expected to continue. Since lower market will drive buying BTC, stability will continue even with a dip. What is hurting market is absorbent pricing, not as bad as 4k a unit or more but still gouging the small consumer regardless of US tariffs or not.
Canaan is driving market well. 921 looks good and expectation for 941 is that it leads the market with Bitmain studdering. As they should deliver a competitor and best price.
Difficulty up.
Canaan is driving market well. 921 looks good and expectation for 941 is that it leads the market with Bitmain studdering. As they should deliver a competitor and best price.
Difficulty up.
Barring any big spikes in price I'd say we are going to keep going around this ~ 4% increase we've been seeing for the last little while.
Any significant spike in price will throw that off.
I was wondering though how much hashrate will come on once it gets cold for some people. Myself my 741's are moving inside to become BTC making space heaters and I'm sure there are lots of like minded dividuals out there, who may have had machines offline.
Any significant spike in price will throw that off.
I was wondering though how much hashrate will come on once it gets cold for some people. Myself my 741's are moving inside to become BTC making space heaters and I'm sure there are lots of like minded dividuals out there, who may have had machines offline.
Forecasting has been and always will be a fools errand when it comes to this industry. There are just too many variables to break it down into simple numbers like you are doing in your post. While its true if things stay static, the outlook is bleak but I highly doubt that will stay that way for long.
I don't bother with long term except when we go low margin like now.
As I agree it is a fool's errand.
Plus game always was cheap power + cheap gear = winner.
lots of cheap gear right now and if you have cheap power this is a good time for you.
I know you have good power prices.
Forecasting has been and always will be a fools errand when it comes to this industry. There are just too many variables to break it down into simple numbers like you are doing in your post. While its true if things stay static, the outlook is bleak but I highly doubt that will stay that way for long.
Except now there are more large farms coming on line than ever, it wont flatten out its going to continue to rise steadily. I know a few hundred megawatts worth of places going online in the next few months alone.
Well I get that it is finally going big guys only at the moment .
And since 70 watt gear exists such as the m10 growth can continue for a while.
but an m10 at 3% growth and 70 watts a th goes red in 600 days
that is with 4 cent power.
So lets say the s11 does 55watts 40 th at 2100 watts at 4 cents it redlines at 700 days with 3% a jump.
So realistically what happens?
I did read huge windmills in Africa doing 2 cent power was possible.
well we near the 4 cent floor which is the average power cost for the big boys.
It has happened before and when it did the diff dropped off for a while.
It has happened before and when it did the diff dropped off for a while.
and here i am just trying to get the power company to give me the transformer i need but with looking at the upcoming difficulty levels - unless miners get more efficient, I might be upside down when I am ready to offer co-location services...
It has happened before and when it did the diff dropped off for a while.
Except now there are more large farms coming on line than ever, it wont flatten out its going to continue to rise steadily. I know a few hundred megawatts worth of places going online in the next few months alone.
I hope the S9 stays profitable for at least that long lol just starting to making ROI now lol
but in all seriousness it seems that with so many people jumping in on mining that the difficulty is raising faster than manufacturers can produce equipment that would prove profitable.
at least that is my opinion.
but in all seriousness it seems that with so many people jumping in on mining that the difficulty is raising faster than manufacturers can produce equipment that would prove profitable.
at least that is my opinion.
well we near the 4 cent floor which is the average power cost for the big boys.
It has happened before and when it did the diff dropped off for a while.
I hope the S9 stays profitable for at least that long lol just starting to making ROI now lol
but in all seriousness it seems that with so many people jumping in on mining that the difficulty is raising faster than manufacturers can produce equipment that would prove profitable.
at least that is my opinion.
but in all seriousness it seems that with so many people jumping in on mining that the difficulty is raising faster than manufacturers can produce equipment that would prove profitable.
at least that is my opinion.
Found this puppy using google
every btc jump ever made
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DQYQOLsB-pJWGu5e8CXF4vkxdYHEJDOyxQptBmC_030/edit#gid=0
On nov 5th 2014 we did 10.05% Jump
the whole net work had 283,116,151 Ghash a diff of 40,300,030,328
on may 31st 2015 we did a -2.50% Jump
the whole network was 340,659,562 gh a diff of 47,589,591,154
total of 14 jumps or 28 weeks and we did about 1.12% for those jumps
We are close to those margins so do we do 1.12% a jump over the next 28 jumps?
could this repeat as it did between nov 2014 and late may 2015?
Here we are from bitcoinwisdom
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Difficulty History
Date.................Difficulty................. Change.... Hash Rate
Oct 04 2018 7,454,968,648,263 4.23% 53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018 7,152,633,351,906 1.90% 51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018 7,019,199,231,177 4.34% 50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018 6,727,225,469,722 5.29% 48,155,355,642 GH/s
Aug 11 2018 6,389,316,883,511 7.39% 45,736,511,764 GH/s
Jul 29 2018 5,949,437,371,609 14.88% 42,587,731,568 GH/s
Jul 17 2018 5,178,671,069,072 -3.45% 37,070,371,464 GH/s
hash would be 62,369,646,904
diff would be 8,712,939,020,023
based on this projection the s9j would earn 41 cents a day 28 weeks from now if price stays the same and power is 7 cents
at 8 cents it earns 9 cents a day
and it loses at 0.084 cents a day
every btc jump ever made
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DQYQOLsB-pJWGu5e8CXF4vkxdYHEJDOyxQptBmC_030/edit#gid=0
On nov 5th 2014 we did 10.05% Jump
the whole net work had 283,116,151 Ghash a diff of 40,300,030,328
on may 31st 2015 we did a -2.50% Jump
the whole network was 340,659,562 gh a diff of 47,589,591,154
total of 14 jumps or 28 weeks and we did about 1.12% for those jumps
We are close to those margins so do we do 1.12% a jump over the next 28 jumps?
could this repeat as it did between nov 2014 and late may 2015?
Here we are from bitcoinwisdom
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Difficulty History
Date.................Difficulty................. Change.... Hash Rate
Oct 04 2018 7,454,968,648,263 4.23% 53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018 7,152,633,351,906 1.90% 51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018 7,019,199,231,177 4.34% 50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018 6,727,225,469,722 5.29% 48,155,355,642 GH/s
Aug 11 2018 6,389,316,883,511 7.39% 45,736,511,764 GH/s
Jul 29 2018 5,949,437,371,609 14.88% 42,587,731,568 GH/s
Jul 17 2018 5,178,671,069,072 -3.45% 37,070,371,464 GH/s
hash would be 62,369,646,904
diff would be 8,712,939,020,023
based on this projection the s9j would earn 41 cents a day 28 weeks from now if price stays the same and power is 7 cents
at 8 cents it earns 9 cents a day
and it loses at 0.084 cents a day
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